An extremely critical fire weather event is the greatest threat level issued by the NWS Storm Prediction Center (SPC) for wildfire events in the United States. On the scale from one to three, an extremely critical is a level three; thus, these outlooks are issued only when forecasters at the SPC are confident of extremely dangerous wildfire conditions on a given day, and are typically reserved for the most extreme events. They are only issued for either Day 2 (with the event occurring the following day) or for Day 1 (on the day of the event). In contrast with high risk outlooks for severe weather outbreaks, extremely critical outlooks are commonly issued for Day 2. This is due to the fact that the conditions required for volatile wildfire spread are easier to predict well in advance than the conditions required for a major tornado outbreak or derecho. Similar to high risk outlooks, extremely critical outlooks also cannot be issued for Day 3 of the outlook period.[1] [2]
Storm Prediction Center Extremely Critical Fire Weather Events - 2000–2009 |
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Date | Year | Region | Acres burned | Fatalities | Outlook | Notes |
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| | Arizona, New Mexico[3] | | | | Cerro Grande Fire[4] |
| | Nevada, Utah, Colorado, Arizona, New Mexico[5] | | | | Cerro Grande Fire |
| | Wyoming, Utah, Colorado, Arizona, New Mexico, Texas, Oklahoma[6] | | | | Cerro Grande Fire |
| | Colorado, Arizona, New Mexico, Nebraska, Kansas, Texas, Oklahoma[7] | | | | Cerro Grande Fire |
| | Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, South Carolina, Florida[8] | | | | One of only two extremely critical areas issued east of the Mississippi River, the other was issued on May 12, 2008 |
| | Nevada, Arizona, Utah[9] | | | | |
| | Nevada, Arizona, Utah[10] | | | | |
| | Wyoming, Colorado, Utah[11] | | | | |
| | Wyoming, Colorado, Utah, Montana, Idaho[12] | | | | Idaho-Montana wildfires of Summer 2000[13] |
| | Washington, Oregon, Montana, Idaho[14] | | | | Idaho-Montana wildfires of Summer 2000 |
| | Wyoming, Montana, Idaho[15] | | | | Idaho-Montana wildfires of Summer 2000 |
| | California, Oregon, Nevada, Wyoming, Montana, Idaho[16] | | | | Idaho-Montana wildfires of Summer 2000 |
| | Wyoming, Montana, Idaho[17] | | | | Idaho-Montana wildfires of Summer 2000 |
| | Wyoming, Montana, Idaho[18] | | | | Idaho-Montana wildfires of Summer 2000 |
| | Wyoming, Montana, Idaho, South Dakota[19] | | | | Idaho-Montana wildfires of Summer 2000 |
| | Wyoming, Montana, Idaho[20] | | | | Idaho-Montana wildfires of Summer 2000 |
| | South Central U.S.[21] | | | | |
| | New Mexico, Colorado, Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas[22] | | | | |
| | California[23] | | | | |
| | California[24] | | | | |
| | California[25] | | | | |
| | California[26] | | | | |
| | California[27] | | | | |
| | California[28] | | | | |
| | California[29] | | | | |
| | California[30] | | | | Viejas Fire |
| | New Mexico, Texas[31] | | | | |
| | New Mexico, Texas[32] | | | | |
| | Idaho, Wyoming[33] [34] | | | | Green Knoll Fire[35] |
| | Eastern Great Basin region[36] | | | | Darby Fire[37] |
| | New Mexico, Texas[38] | | | | |
| | New Mexico, Texas[39] | | | | |
| | Central Rocky Mountains region[40] | | | | |
| | New Mexico, Arizona, Colorado[41] | | | | |
| | Western U.S.[42] | | | | Hayman Fire[43] |
| | Western U.S.[44] | | | | Hayman Fire |
| | Nevada[45] | | | | |
| | California[46] | | | | Pacific Fire[47] |
| | Arizona, Colorado, Utah[48] | | | | |
| | Arizona, New Mexico[49] | | | | |
| | Colorado, New Mexico, Utah[50] | | | | Aspen Fire[51] |
| | Utah[52] | | | | |
| | Southwestern U.S.[53] | | | | |
| | New Mexico, Texas[54] | | | | |
| | California[55] | | | | School Canyon Fire[56] |
| | New Mexico, Oklahoma, Texas[57] | | | | Velma Fire[58] |
| | New Mexico, Oklahoma, Texas[59] | | [60] | | Texas-Oklahoma wildfires of 2005–06[61] |
| | Central U.S.[62] | | | | Texas-Oklahoma wildfires of 2005–06 |
| | New Mexico, Oklahoma, Texas[63] | | | | Texas-Oklahoma wildfires of 2005–06 |
| | Southern U.S.[64] | | | | Texas-Oklahoma wildfires of 2005–06 |
| | Oklahoma, Texas[65] | | | | Texas-Oklahoma wildfires of 2005–06 |
| | Oklahoma, Texas[66] | | | | Texas-Oklahoma wildfires of 2005–06 |
| | Oklahoma, Texas[67] | | | | Texas-Oklahoma wildfires of 2005–06 |
| | California[68] | | | | |
| | California[69] | > | | | Orange County Fire[70] |
| | California[71] | > | | | Orange County Fire |
| | New Mexico, Oklahoma, Texas[72] | | | | |
| | Central U.S.[73] | | | | |
| | New Mexico, Texas[74] | | | | |
| | Central U.S.[75] | | [76] | | Texas-Oklahoma wildfires of 2005–06 |
| | New Mexico, Oklahoma, Texas[77] | | | | Texas-Oklahoma wildfires of 2005–06 |
| | Central U.S.[78] | | | | Texas-Oklahoma wildfires of 2005–06 |
| | Southwestern U.S.[79] | | | | |
| | Southwestern U.S.[80] | | | | June 2006 Colorado wildfires[81] |
| | Arizona, New Mexico[82] | | | | |
| | Northwestern U.S.[83] | | | | Tripod Complex, Tatoosh Complex, and Cedar Creek fires[84] |
| | Idaho, Montana, Wyoming[85] | | | | Middle Fork Complex, Trail Creek, Potato, and Zane fires[86] |
| | Texas[87] | | | | |
| | California[88] | | | | Malibu Fire |
| | Texas[89] | | | | |
| | New Mexico, Texas[90] | | | | |
| | Arizona, Nevada, Utah[91] | | | | |
| | Arizona, New Mexico[92] | | | | |
| | Nevada[93] | | | | Murphy Complex Fire[94] |
| | California[95] | | [96] | | 2007 California wildfires[97] |
| | California[98] | | | | 2007 California wildfires |
| | California[99] [100] | | | | 2007 California wildfires |
| | Texas[101] | | | | 2008 Texas wildfires[102] |
| | Texas[103] | | | | 2008 Texas wildfires |
| | Texas[104] | | | | 2008 Texas wildfires[105] |
| | Arizona, New Mexico, Texas[106] | | | | 2008 Texas wildfires |
| | New Mexico, Texas[107] | | | | 2008 Texas wildfires |
| | Texas[108] | | | | 2008 Texas wildfires |
| | Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas[109] | | | | 2008 Texas wildfires[110] |
| | New Mexico, Texas[111] | | | | 2008 Texas wildfires |
| | New Mexico, Texas[112] | | | | 2008 Texas wildfires |
| | Arizona, New Mexico, Texas[113] | | | | 2008 Texas wildfires |
| | New Mexico, Texas[114] | | | | 2008 Texas wildfires |
| | Arizona, New Mexico, Texas[115] | | | | 2008 Texas wildfires and X Fire[116] |
| | New Mexico, Texas[117] | | | | 2008 Texas wildfires |
| | Florida, Southwestern U.S.[118] | | | | 2008 Texas wildfires; one of only two extremely critical areas issued east of the Mississippi River, the other was issued on May 24, 2000 |
| | New Mexico, Texas[119] | | | | 2008 Texas wildfires |
| | Arizona, New Mexico[120] | | | | |
| | Arizona, New Mexico[121] | | | | |
| | New Mexico, Texas[122] | | | | 2008 Texas wildfires |
| | New Mexico, Oklahoma, Texas[123] | | | | 2008 Texas wildfires |
| | Texas[124] | | | | |
| | Central U.S.[125] | | | | |
| | Central U.S.[126] | | | | |
| | Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas[127] | | | | |
| | Arizona, New Mexico, Texas[128] | | | | |
| | New Mexico, Texas[129] | | | | |
| | New Mexico, Oklahoma, Texas[130] | | [131] | | April 2009 Texas wildfires |
| | Arizona, New Mexico[132] | | | | |
| | Arizona, Nevada, Utah[133] | | | | |
| | Southwestern U.S.[134] | | | | | |
Storm Prediction Center Extremely Critical Fire Weather Events - 2010–2019 |
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Date | Year | Region | Acres burned | Fatalities | Outlook | Notes |
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| | New Mexico, Texas[135] | | | | |
| | Central U.S.[136] | | | | |
| | New Mexico, Texas[137] | | | | |
| | New Mexico, Oklahoma, Texas[138] | | | | |
| | New Mexico, Oklahoma, Texas[139] | | | | 2011 Texas wildfires |
| | New Mexico, Texas[140] | | | | 2011 Texas wildfires |
| | Texas[141] | | | | 2011 Texas wildfires |
| | Southwestern and Central U.S.[142] | | | | 2011 Texas wildfires |
| | Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas[143] | | | | 2011 Texas wildfires |
| | Southwestern and Central U.S.[144] | | | | 2011 Texas wildfires |
| | Central U.S[145] | | | | 2011 Texas wildfires |
| | Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas[146] | | | | 2011 Texas wildfires |
| | New Mexico, Oklahoma, Texas[147] | | | | 2011 Texas wildfires |
| | Oklahoma, Texas[148] | | | | 2011 Texas wildfires |
| | New Mexico, Texas[149] | | | | 2011 Texas wildfires |
| | New Mexico, Oklahoma, Texas[150] | | | | 2011 Texas wildfires |
| | Southwestern and Central U.S.[151] | | | | 2011 Texas wildfires |
| | New Mexico, Oklahoma, Texas[152] | | | | 2011 Texas wildfires |
| | New Mexico, Texas[153] | | | | 2011 Texas wildfires |
| | Central U.S.[154] | | | | 2011 Texas wildfires |
| | Arizona[155] | | | | Wallow Fire[156] |
| | Southwestern U.S.[157] | + | | | 2011 Texas wildfires and Wallow Fire |
| | Nevada[158] | | | | Las Conchas Fire[159] |
| | California[160] | | | | |
| | New Mexico[161] | | | | |
| | New Mexico[162] | | | | |
| | Nebraska, South Dakota[163] | | | | |
| | Colorado, Nebraska, Wyoming[164] | | | | Lower North Fork Fire[165] |
| | Arizona, New Mexico[166] | | | | Whitewater-Baldy Complex Fire[167] |
| | New Mexico[168] | | | | Whitewater-Baldy Complex Fire |
| | Texas[169] | | | | |
| | California[170] | | | | |
| | New Mexico, Texas[171] | | | | |
| | Colorado, Kansas, New Mexico, Oklahoma and Texas[172] | | | | |
| | Kansas, Oklahoma and Texas[173] | | | | |
| | Colorado, Kansas, New Mexico, Oklahoma and Texas[174] | | | | |
| | Oklahoma, Texas[175] | | | | Double Diamond Fire[176] |
| | Arizona, New Mexico[177] | | | | |
| | Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico, Utah[178] | | | | |
| | Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico, Utah[179] | | | | Assayii Lake Fire[180] |
| | Colorado, New Mexico, Texas[181] | | | | |
| | South Dakota[182] | | | | |
| | Colorado, Kansas, New Mexico, Oklahoma, Texas[183] | | | | February 2016 Texas-Oklahoma wildfires[184] |
| | Arizona, Colorado, Kansas, New Mexico, Oklahoma and Texas[185] | | | | Anderson Creek Fire[186] |
| | New Mexico, Oklahoma and Texas[187] | | | | Anderson Creek Fire |
| | Kansas, New Mexico, Oklahoma and Texas[188] | | | | 350 Complex Fire[189] |
| | Colorado, Kansas, New Mexico, Oklahoma, Texas[190] | | | | |
| | Colorado, Kansas, New Mexico, Oklahoma, Texas[191] | | | | 2 Mile Lane, 96, and 141st fires[192] |
| | New Mexico, Oklahoma, Texas[193] | | | | February 2017 Texas wildfires[194] |
| | Colorado, Kansas, Nebraska, New Mexico, Oklahoma, Texas[195] | | [196] | | March 2017 Great Plains wildfires[197] |
| | Colorado, New Mexico, Texas[198] | | | | Rankin Ranch Road and Green Ranch fires[199] [200] |
| | New Mexico, Texas[201] | | | | |
| | California[202] | | | | December 2017 Southern California wildfires[203] [204] |
| | California[205] | | | | December 2017 Southern California wildfires |
| | California[206] | | [207] | | December 2017 Southern California wildfires |
| | California[208] | | | | December 2017 Southern California wildfires |
| | New Mexico, Colorado, Texas, Oklahoma[209] | | | | Forest Ridge Fire[210] and Coyote Canyon Fire[211] |
| | New Mexico, Texas[212] | | | | March 2018 Texas-Oklahoma wildfires[213] |
| | New Mexico, Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, Colorado[214] | | | | March 2018 Texas-Oklahoma wildfires[215] |
| | New Mexico, Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, Colorado[216] | | [217] | | April 2018 Great Plains wildfires, including the Rhea Fire.[218] [219] [220] |
| | New Mexico, Texas, Oklahoma[221] | | [222] | | April 2018 Great Plains wildfires[223] [224] – The first day to be given a "historically critical" designation on the Red Flag Threat Index (RFTI).[225] |
| | New Mexico, Texas, Oklahoma[226] | | | | April 2018 Great Plains wildfires – Outlook included enhanced warning: "Dangerous, life-threatening fire weather conditions are likely". PDS Red Flag Warning #709 was issued for parts of New Mexico and Texas at 2005Z the day before.[227] Forecasters indicated that the potential for the rapid spread of wildfires was at its highest level in more than ten years.[228] This was only the second day on record to be given the "historically critical" designation on the Red Flag Threat Index (RFTI). |
| | Arizona, New Mexico[229] | + | | | April 2018 Arizona-New Mexico wildfires[230] [231] |
| | Utah, Nevada[232] | | | | Pole Creek and Bald Mountain wildfires[233] |
| | California[234] | | | |
| | California[235] | | [236] | | Woolsey, Hill, Camp, and Nurse wildfires;[237] [238] Deadliest extremely critical day on record. |
| | California[239] | | [240] | | Woolsey, Hill, Camp, and Nurse wildfires |
| | California[241] | | | | Woolsey, Hill, Camp, and Nurse wildfires |
| | California[242] | | | | Woolsey, Hill, Camp, and Nurse wildfires |
| | California[243] | | [244] | | Woolsey, Hill, Camp, and Nurse wildfires |
| | New Mexico, Texas[245] | | | | 267 Fire[246] |
| | California[247] | | | | Early October 2019 California wildfires[248] [249] |
| | California[250] | | [251] | | Early October 2019 California wildfires |
| | California[252] | | | | Early October 2019 California wildfires |
| | California[253] | | | | Late October 2019 California wildfires |
| | California[254] | | | | Late October 2019 California wildfires |
| | California[255] | | | | Late October 2019 California wildfires |
| | California[256] | | | | Late October 2019 California wildfires |
| | California[257] | | | | Late October 2019 California wildfires |
| | California[258] | | | | Late October 2019 California wildfires |
| | California[259] | | | | Late October 2019 California wildfires – First and only occurrence of five consecutive extremely critical days | |
Storm Prediction Center Extremely Critical Fire Weather Events - 2020– |
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Date | Year | Region | Acres burned | Fatalities | Outlook | Notes |
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| | Colorado, New Mexico[260] | + | | | Wilson Crossing, Tadpole, and Bent's Fort fires[261] [262] [263] |
| | Montana[264] | + | | | Huff, Bobcat, and Snider fires[265] |
| | Oregon, Washington[266] | + | | | September 2020 Labor Day wildfires – Deputy Fire Staff for Northwest Oregon Fire Management Eric Johnson stated that "the fire weather forecasted is extremely rare and occurs only a few times a century."[267] |
| | Oregon, Washington[268] | + | < | -- 1 in Washington state, 9 in Oregon -->[269] | | September 2020 Labor Day wildfires |
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| | California[270] | | | | Olinda, Dersch, and Point fires[271] |
| | California[272] | | | | Silverado and Blue Ridge fires |
| | California[273] | + | | | Bond and Willow fires[274] [275] |
| | Colorado, Utah[276] | | | | Foxton Fire[277] |
| | Colorado, Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas[278] | + | [279] | | 2021 Kansas wildfire outbreak – includes the Four County, North 207, Parker Creek, and Cobb fires[280] |
| | Texas[281] | + | | | Eastland Complex Fire[282] |
| | Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas[283] | + | | | Crittenberg Complex Fire[284] |
| | Colorado, Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas[285] | + | | | Gosper/Furnas County, Beaver River, and Sand Creek fires[286] [287] [288] |
| | Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas[289] | + | | | Gosper/Furnas County, Beaver River, and Sand Creek fires |
| | Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas[290] | + | [291] | | McBride Fire[292] |
| | Colorado, New Mexico[293] | + | | | April-May 2022 New Mexico wildfires[294] |
| | Colorado, Kansas, New Mexico, Oklahoma[295] | + | | | April-May 2022 New Mexico wildfires |
| | Colorado, New Mexico, Oklahoma, Texas[296] | + | | | April-May 2022 New Mexico wildfires |
| | New Mexico, Oklahoma, Texas[297] | + | | | April-May 2022 New Mexico wildfires |
| | Montana[298] | + | | | Government, Billiard, and Bull Gin Complex fires[299] |
| | Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas, New Mexico[300] | | | | Route 66 Fire[301] |
| | Oklahoma, Texas[302] | + | | | Smokehouse Creek Fire[303] |
| | Colorado, Kansas, Oklahoma[304] | | | | 57 Fire[305] |
| | New Mexico[306] | | | | Blue 2 Fire[307] |
| | California[308] | | | | Mountain Fire[309] | |