List of Category 5 South Pacific severe tropical cyclones explained

Category 5 South Pacific severe tropical cyclones are tropical cyclones that reach Category 5 intensity on the Australian tropical cyclone intensity scale within the South Pacific basin. They are by definition the strongest tropical cyclones that can form on Earth. A total of 21 tropical cyclones have peaked at Category 5 strength in the South Pacific tropical cyclone basin, which is denoted as the part of the Pacific Ocean to the south of the equator and to the east of 160°E. 20 of these tropical cyclones have been classified as Category 5 on the Australian tropical cyclone intensity scale, while Severe Tropical Cyclone Anne was estimated to be equivalent to a Category 5 on the Saffir–Simpson hurricane wind scale.

The earliest tropical cyclone to be classified as a Category 5 severe tropical cyclone was Hina, which was classified as a Category 5 between March 6 - 7, 1985, as it moved through the Solomon Islands. The latest system to be classified as a Category 5 severe tropical cyclone was Cyclone Niran, which was classified on March 5, 2021, before it made landfall on New Caledonia.

Background

The South Pacific tropical cyclone basin is located to the south of the Equator between 160°E and 120°W. The basin is officially monitored by the Fiji Meteorological Service (FMS) and the New Zealand MetService who are the primary warning centres for the region. Other meteorological services such as the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BoM), Météo-France (MF) as well as the United States Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) and the National Weather Service also monitor the basin.[1] Within the basin, a Category 5 severe tropical cyclone is a tropical cyclone that has 10-minute maximum sustained wind speeds over 107kn or greater on the Australian tropical cyclone intensity scale.[2] A named storm could also be classified as a Category 5 tropical cyclone if it is estimated, to have 1-minute mean maximum sustained wind speeds over 137kn on the Saffir–Simpson hurricane wind scale.[3] Within the basin this scale is only officially used in American Samoa, however, systems are commonly compared to the SSHWS using 1-minute sustained windspeeds from the United States Joint Typhoon Warning Center.[4] [5] On both scales, a Category 5 tropical cyclone is expected to cause widespread devastation, if it significantly impacts land at or near its peak intensity.[2] [3]

Before the formal start of the satellite era during the 1969-70 season, there was no way of determining how intense a tropical cyclone was unless it impacted land or either a ship or a plane happened to observe it.[6]

Over the years, the intensity estimates of tropical cyclones have been reanalysed for various reasons and were found to have been underestimated by the various warning centres.[1] [4]

There is not enough evidence available to make definitive conclusions about how climate change is impacting Category 5 severe tropical cyclones, however, tropical cyclones are generally expected to become stronger and more frequent in the future.[7]

Systems

|-| Hina || || 120kn || 910hPa || Solomon Islands, Vanuatu, Fiji || || ||[8] [9] [10] |-| Fran || || 110kn || 920hPa || Wallis and Futuna, Fiji, Vanuatu
New Caledonia, Queensland, New Zealand || || ||[11] |-| Ron || || 125kn || 900hPa || Samoan Islands, Wallis and Futuna, Tonga || || ||[12] [13] |-| Susan || || 125kn || 900hPa || Solomon Islands, Vanuatu, Fiji ||| || ||[13] [14] [15] |-| Zoe || || 130kn || 890hPa || Solomon Islands, Vanuatu, Fiji || Severe || ||[16] |-| Beni || || 110kn || 920hPa || Solomon Islands, Vanuatu
New Caledonia, Australia || || 1 ||[17] |-| Dovi || || 110kn || 920hPa || Niue, Cook Islands || Minimal || ||[18] [19] |-| Erica || || 115kn || 915hPa || Queensland, Solomon Islands
Vanuatu, New Caledonia || || 2 ||[20] |-| Heta || || 115kn || 915hPa || Samoan Islands, Niue, Tonga, Wallis and Futuna || || ||[21] [22] [23] [24] |-| Meena || || 115kn || 915hPa || Cook Islands || || ||[25] |-| Olaf || || 115kn || 915hPa || Samoan Islands, Cook Islands || || ||[26] |-| Percy || || 125kn || 900hPa || Tokelau, Samoan Islands, Cook Islands || || ||[27] |-| Ului || || 115kn || 915hPa || Solomon Islands, Vanuatu || Unknown || 1 ||[28] [29] |-| Ian || || 110kn || 930hPa || Fiji, Tonga || || 1 ||[30] [31] |-| Pam || || 135kn || 896hPa || Fiji, Kiribati, Solomon Islands, Tuvalu
Vanuatu, New Caledonia, New Zealand || || 16 ||[32] |-| Winston || || 150kn || 884hPa || Vanuatu, Fiji, Tonga, Niue || || 44 ||[33] [34] |-| Donna || || 110kn || 937hPa || Melanesia, New Zealand || || 2 ||[35] [36] |-| Gita || || 110kn || 927hPa || Solomon Islands, Vanuatu, Fiji, Niue
Wallis and Futuna, Samoan Islands, Tonga || || 2 ||[36] [37] |-| Harold || || 125kn || 920hPa || Solomon Islands, Vanuatu, Fiji, Tonga || Significant || ||[38] [39] |-| Yasa || || 125kn || 917hPa || Fiji, Tonga || Significant || ||[40] [41] |-| Niran || || 110kn || 931hPa || Queensland, New Caledonia || Extensive || ||[42] [43] [44] |-| Kevin || || 125kn || 913hPa || Solomon Islands, Vanuatu, New Caledonia || Extensive || ||[45] |-| Lola || || 115kn || 930hPa || Solomon Islands, Vanuatu, New Caledonia || Unknown || ||[46] |}

Other systems

In addition to the tropical cyclones listed above, Severe Tropical Cyclone Anne (1988) was estimated by the JTWC to have peaked with one-minute sustained wind speeds of 140kn for six hours on January 11, 1988.[47] This made it equivalent to a Category 5 hurricane on the SSHWS; however, the FMS estimated that the system had peaked with 10-minute sustained winds of 100kn based on the Dvorak technique, which made it a Category 4 severe tropical cyclone on the Australian scale.[47] [48] Elsewhere in the South Pacific Ocean, Severe Tropical Cyclones: Dominic (1982), Elinor (1983), Kathy (1984), Harry (1989), Aivu (1989), Rewa (1993-94), Theodore (1994), Monica (2006), Hamish (2009), Yasi (2011), Ita (2014), Marcia (2015), Jasper (2023) were each considered to be a Category 5 severe tropical cyclone by the BoM while located in the Australian region. During a database repair project that took place between 2005 and 2007, the BoM discovered that Severe Tropical Cyclone Pam 1974 had been reanalysed at some point after 1979.[49] This reanalysis showed that Pam had moved into the Australian region as a category 5 severe tropical cyclone, however, during 2021 it was determined that the width of Pam's southern eyewall was too narrow at this time and the BoM downgraded it to a Category 4 severe tropical cyclone.[49]

During 2014, Meteo France's French Polynesian Meteorological Centre and RSMC La Reunion published the results of a reanalysis, they had undertaken into Severe Tropical Cyclone's Nisha-Orama and Veena of the 1982-83 season.[50] Within the reanalysis, they found that Nisha-Orama was the strongest tropical cyclone to impact French Polynesia on record and had peaked with 10-minute sustained wind speeds of 123kn and a minimum pressure of 898sigfig=4NaNsigfig=4.[1] They also estimated that Veena had peaked with 10-minute sustained wind speeds of 114kn and a minimum pressure of 910sigfig=4NaNsigfig=4.[1] During 2017, a study into extreme tropical cyclone activity in the southern Pacific Ocean was published in the Royal Meteorological Society's International Journal of Climatology.[4] Within the study, the authors reanalysed satellite images of several tropical cyclones between 1980 - 2016 using the 1984 Dvorak Technique and found that 18 tropical cyclones had reached Category 5 intensity on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane wind scale.[4] In particular the study estimated that Severe Tropical Cyclones: Nisha - Orama and Oscar of the 1982-83 season had peaked with 1-minute sustained wind speeds of 150kn and that Anne (1988) had peaked with 1-minute wind speeds of 155kn.[4] They also estimated that Severe Tropical Cyclone Hina had peaked with 1-minute sustained wind speeds of 170kn, which would make it one of the strongest tropical cyclones on record in the Southern Hemisphere.[4]

Land interaction

Off the 22 Category 5 severe tropical cyclones listed above, only Severe Tropical Cyclones: Fran, Beni, Erica, Ului, Pam, Winston, Harold, Yasa and Kevin are considered to have made landfall on a Pacific nation. Severe Tropical Cyclone's Pam, Winston, Harold and Yasa are the only systems to have made landfall while at Category 5 intensity and were considered to have caused widespread devastation to Fiji and Vanuatu. Erica directly impacted New Caledonia as a Category 5 severe tropical cyclone, however, it had markedly weakened, before it made landfall on New Caledonia's main island.[51] [52]

Severe Tropical Cyclone's Fran, Beni and Ului all made landfall on Queensland, Australia. In addition to these six systems making landfall, several systems have either threatened or passed very near to various smaller islands at their peak intensity. In particular, Fran passed in between the islands of Efate and Erromango in Vanuatu during March 9, 1992 while Susan threatened Vanuatu during January 5, 1998, but recurved in time to spare the island nation a direct hit.[13] At around 18:00 UTC on January 6, 1998, Severe Tropical Cyclone Ron passed within 10round=5NaNround=5 of the Tongan island of Niuafo'ou.[13] Severe Tropical Cyclone Zoe passed near or over several of the Solomon Islands within Temotu Province during December 2002.[5]

During 2020, Cyclone Harold made landfall on northern Vanuatu as a Category 5 severe tropical cyclone, before later impacting Fiji and Tonga as a Category 4 severe tropical cyclone. Later that year, Cyclone Yasa made landfall in Fiji as a Category 5 severe tropical cyclone with sustained winds of 240round=5NaNround=5 and momentary gusts of 345round=5NaNround=5. Severe Tropical Cyclone Niran subsequently skirted the coast of New Caledonia as it weakened into a Category 3 Severe Tropical Cyclone.

See also

Notes and References

  1. Book: Laurent, Victoire. Varney, Patrick. Meteo France. Historique des Cyclones de Polynesie Francaise. 2014. French. 978-2-9522946-1-4. History of Cyclones in French Polynesia.
  2. 2017/2018 Tropical Cyclone Season Summary of Alerts and Warnings Procedures for Fiji. Fiji Meteorological Service . October 23, 2017 . 3 & 11. https://web.archive.org/web/20180413033258/http://www.met.gov.fj/TC_Procedures.pdf. live . April 13, 2018.
  3. The Saffir–Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. United States National Hurricane Center. Schott, Timothy. Landsea, Christopher. Hafele, Gene. Lorens, Jeffrey. Taylor, Arthur. Thrum, Harvey. Ward, Bill. Willis, Mark. Zaleski, Walt. January 2, 2019. June 4, 2019. May 25, 2019. https://web.archive.org/web/20190525011517/https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pdf/sshws.pdf. live.
  4. Hoarau, Karl. Chalonge, Ludovic. Pirard, Florence . Peyrusaubes, Daniel . Extreme tropical cyclone activities in the southern Pacific Ocean . International Journal of Climatology . March 2018 . 38 . 3 . 1409–1420 . 10.1002/joc.5254. 2018IJCli..38.1409H. 133864648 .
  5. Web site: Masters, Jeff. Henson, Bob. Fiji Pounded by its First Category 5 Storm on Record: Tropical Cyclone Winston. Weather Underground. February 19, 2016. June 16, 2019. April 23, 2018. https://web.archive.org/web/20180423041930/https://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/fiji-pounded-by-its-first-category-5-storm-on-record-tropical-cyclone.html. live.
  6. http://www.pacificdisaster.net/doc/JB_DM371_1996_TC_Southwest_Pacific.pdf
  7. Web site: Masters, Jeff. Henson, Bob. Tropical Cyclone Yasa makes landfall in Fiji with 145 mph winds. Yale Climate Connections. December 17, 2020. December 21, 2020. December 17, 2020. https://web.archive.org/web/20201217031859/https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2020/12/tropical-cyclone-yasa-expected-to-slam-fiji-as-category-4-storm/. live.
  8. Web site: [{{IBTRACS url|id=1985070S17175}} 1985 Tropical Cyclone Hina (1985070S17175)]. International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship. April 2, 2019.
  9. Ready, S.C.. Fiji Meteorological Service. April 9, 1985. Tropical Cyclone Hina: Preliminary Report.
  10. Web site: Summary of Major Disasters 1985-2016. April 17, 2017 . October 6, 2021 . https://web.archive.org/web/20211006192316/http://www.ndmo.gov.fj/images/AllDisasterReports/summary_of_disasters_1985-2016.pdf . live .
  11. Web site: [{{IBTRACS url|id=1992064S10184}} 1992 Tropical Cyclone Fran (1992064S10184)]. International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship. April 2, 2019.
  12. Web site: [{{IBTRACS url|id=1998001S09195}} 1998 Tropical Cyclone Ron (1998001S09195)]. International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship. April 2, 2019.
  13. Fiji Meteorological Service. RSMC Nadi Tropical Cyclone Seasonal Summary 1997-98. August 29, 2007. December 14, 2013. https://web.archive.org/web/20090326164931/http://www.met.gov.fj/documents/TC_Seasonal_Summary_97-981190690538.pdf. dead. March 26, 2009.
  14. Web site: [{{IBTRACS url|id=1997355S05189}} 1997 Tropical Cyclone Susan (1997355S05189)]. International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship. April 2, 2019.
  15. Preliminary Report on Tropical Cyclone Susan — January 3 - 9, 1998 . Fiji Meteorological Service . January 20, 1998 . December 14, 2013 . https://web.archive.org/web/20130928164121/http://www.pacificdisaster.net/pdnadmin/data/original/CRP_TC_1998_Preliminary_report.pdf . September 28, 2013 . dead .
  16. Web site: [{{IBTRACS url|id=2002358S08185}} 2002 Tropical Cyclone Zoe (2002358S08185)]. International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship. April 2, 2019.
  17. Web site: [{{IBTRACS url|id=2003021S10163}} 2002 Tropical Cyclone Beni (2003021S10163)]. International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship. April 2, 2019.
  18. Web site: [{{IBTRACS url|id=2003036S10197}} 2003 Tropical Cyclone Dovi (2003036S10197)]. International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship. April 2, 2019.
  19. Padgett, Gary. Monthly Global Tropical Cyclone Summary February 2003. April 2, 2019. July 17, 2011. https://web.archive.org/web/20110717172125/http://www.australiansevereweather.com/cyclones/2003/summ0302.htm. live.
  20. Web site: [{{IBTRACS url|id=2003061S21148}} 2003 Tropical Cyclone Erica (2003061S21148)]. International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship. April 2, 2019.
  21. Web site: [{{IBTRACS url|id=2003359S15177}} 2003 Tropical Cyclone Heta (2003359S15177)]. International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship. April 2, 2019.
  22. Web site: Prasad, Binman . Economic Impact of Natural Disasters on development in the Pacific Volume 1: Research Report . June 29, 2010 . March 11, 2012 . 10–89 . Kaloumaira, Atu . South Pacific Applied Geoscience Commission . McKenzie, Emily . https://web.archive.org/web/20120311213402/http://www.pacificdisaster.net/pdnadmin/data/original/economic%20impact%20of%20natural%20disasters%20on%20development%20in%20the%20pacific.pdf . 2005 . dead.
  23. Fiji Meteorological Service . May 20, 2024. Tropical Cyclone Summary 2003 — 2004 Season . https://web.archive.org/web/20220126144603/http://www.pacificdisaster.net/doc/TC_Seasonal_Summary_2003-2004.pdf. January 26, 2022. live.
  24. April 3, 2019. Storm Data and Unusual Weather Phenomena January 2004. May 22, 2024. dead. https://archive.today/20240522094424/https://www.webcitation.org/5rcbRZVTX?url=http://www4.ncdc.noaa.gov/cgi-win/wwcgi.dll%3Fwwevent~ShowEvent~563688. United States National Climatic Data Center. 2004. 8.
  25. Web site: International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship. [{{IBTRACS url|id=2005032S14195}} 2005 Tropical Cyclone Meena (2005032S14195)]. April 2, 2019.
  26. Web site: International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship. [{{IBTRACS url|id=2005041S13181}} 2005 Tropical Cyclone Olaf (2005041S13181)]. April 2, 2019.
  27. Web site: [{{IBTRACS url|id=2005054S09173}} 2005 Tropical Cyclone Percy (2005054S09173)]. International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship. April 2, 2019.
  28. Web site: [{{IBTRACS url|id=2010070S15168}} 2010 Tropical Cyclone Ului (2010070S15168)]. International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship. April 2, 2019.
  29. Severe Tropical Cyclone Ului . February 6, 2017 . March 23, 2017 . https://web.archive.org/web/20170323224237/http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone/history/ului.shtml . live .
  30. Web site: [{{IBTRACS url|id=2014004S17183}} 2014 Tropical Cyclone Ian (2014004S17183)]. International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship. April 2, 2019.
  31. Web site: Archived copy . 2015-08-26 . 2012-10-19 . https://web.archive.org/web/20121019051542/http://www.met.gov.fj/Summary2.pdf . dead .
  32. Web site: [{{IBTRACS url|id=2015066S08170}} 2015 Tropical Cyclone Pam (2015066S08170)]. International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship. April 2, 2019.
  33. Web site: International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship. [{{IBTRACS url|id=2016041S14170}} 2016 Tropical Cyclone Winston (2016041S14170)]. April 2, 2019.
  34. Fiji Annual Climate Summary 2016. Fiji Meteorological Service. 2017. https://web.archive.org/web/20171107071255/http://www.met.gov.fj/Summary2.pdf. November 7, 2017. live. April 2, 2019. 2.
  35. Web site: International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship. [{{IBTRACS url|id=2017122S13170}} 2017 Tropical Cyclone Donna (2017122S13170)]. April 2, 2019.
  36. Review of the 2016/2017 and 2017/2018 Cyclone Seasons by RSMC Nadi. Fiji Meteorological Service. 2018. RA V Tropical Cyclone Committee for the South Pacific and South-East Indian Ocean Seventeenth Session. http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/www/RAV_TCC-17.html. World Meteorological Organisation. https://web.archive.org/web/20180723003837/http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/www/Documents/RAV_TCC-17_DOC4.1.1_RSMC-Nadi.pdf. July 23, 2018. live. July 22, 2018. 2.
  37. Web site: International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship. [{{IBTRACS url|id=2018038S15172}} 2018 Tropical Cyclone Gita (2018038S15172)]. October 23, 2019.
  38. Web site: International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship. [{{IBTRACS url|id=2020092S09155}} 2020 Tropical Cyclone Harold (2020092S09155)]. May 8, 2022.
  39. Fiji Islands Climate Summary: May 2020 Volume 41: Issue 4. Fiji Meteorological Service. https://web.archive.org/web/20200508182122/https://www.met.gov.fj/aifs_prods/Climate_Products/April%202020climateSum2020.05.08%2015.56.05.pdf. May 8, 2020. May 8, 2020. May 8, 2020.
  40. Web site: International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship. [{{IBTRACS url|id=2020346S13168}} 2020 Tropical Cyclone Yasa (2020346S13168)]. November 14, 2022.
  41. Fiji Islands Annual Climate Summary: 2020. https://web.archive.org/web/20221112205931/https://www.met.gov.fj/aifs_prods/Climate_Products/2020annualSum2022.10.19%2012.02.59.pdf. November 12, 2022. November 13, 2022. Fiji Meteorological Service. live. June 4, 2021.
  42. Web site: International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship. [{{IBTRACS url|id=2021058S16149}} 2021 Tropical Cyclone Niran (2021058S16149)]. November 14, 2022.
  43. Severe Tropical Cyclone Niran. live. https://web.archive.org/web/20210921192201/http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone/history/niran21.shtml. September 21, 2021. September 21, 2021. Australian Bureau of Meteorology. 2021.
  44. Fiji Islands Annual Climate Summary: 2021. https://web.archive.org/web/20221112210049/https://www.met.gov.fj/aifs_prods/Climate_Products/2021annualSum2022.10.19%2012.03.54.pdf. November 12, 2022. November 13, 2022. Fiji Meteorological Service. live. October 19, 2022.
  45. Tropical Cyclone Seasonal Summary 2022/23 Season. https://web.archive.org/web/20231025192612/https://www.met.gov.fj/aifs_prods/tc_report/TC_Seasonal_Sumary_2023_F.pdf. October 25, 2023. December 30, 2023. Fiji Meteorological Service. live. July 24, 2023.
  46. Prasad, Shivneel A. Fiji Meteorological Service. February 26, 2024. Report on Severe Tropical Cyclone Lola. https://web.archive.org/web/20240226234050/https://www.met.gov.fj/aifs_prods/tc_report/TC%20Lola%20October%202023TC_Report2024.02.26%2010.56.23.pdf. February 26, 2024. February 24, 2024.
  47. Web site: [{{IBTRACS url|id=1988006S05182}} 1988 Tropical Cyclone ANNE (1988006S05182)]. International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship. May 25, 2019.
  48. Kishore, Satya. Fiji Meteorological Service. April 25, 1988. Tropical Cyclone Report 88/1, Tropical Cyclone Anne.
  49. Courtney, Joseph B. Foley, Gary R. van Burgel, Johannes L. Trewin, Blair. Burton, Andrew D. Callaghan, Jeffrey. Davidson, Noel E. Revisions to the Australian tropical cyclone best track database . Journal of Southern Hemisphere Earth Systems Science . 2021 . 71 . 2 . 219. 10.1071/ES21011. 244220599 . free.
  50. Book: Laurent, Victoire. Varney, Patrick. Meteo France. Historique des Cyclones de Polynesie Francaise. 2014. French. 978-2-9522946-1-4. History of Cyclones in French Polynesia.
  51. Hall, Jonty C . Callaghan, Jeff . April 12, 2003 . Tropical Cyclone Zoe — the most intense Tropical Cyclone observed in the Australia/South Pacific region? . 16 . April 2003 . 31–36 . Bulletin of the Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society . dead . https://web.archive.org/web/20120320231137/http://www.amos.org.au/documents/item/52 . March 20, 2012 .
  52. December 1, 2019. Monthly Global Tropical Cyclone Summary March 2003 . Padgett, Gary. https://web.archive.org/web/20110717172223/http://www.australiansevereweather.com/cyclones/2003/summ0303.htm . July 17, 2011 . live. dmy .

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