2020 United States Senate election in Minnesota explained

See also: 2020 United States Senate elections.

2020 United States Senate election in Minnesota should not be confused with 2020 Minnesota Senate election.

Election Name:2020 United States Senate election in Minnesota
Country:Minnesota
Flag Year:1983
Type:presidential
Ongoing:no
Previous Election:2018 United States Senate special election in Minnesota
Previous Year:2018 (special)
Next Election:2026 United States Senate election in Minnesota
Next Year:2026
Election Date:November 3, 2020
Image1:Tina Smith, official portrait, 116th congress (cropped).jpg
Nominee1:Tina Smith
Party1:Minnesota Democratic–Farmer–Labor Party
Popular Vote1:1,566,522
Percentage1:48.74%
Nominee2:Jason Lewis
Party2:Republican Party (United States)
Popular Vote2:1,398,145
Percentage2:43.50%
Image3:Blanco portrait.svg
Nominee3:Kevin O'Connor
Party3:Legal Marijuana Now Party
Popular Vote3:190,154
Percentage3:5.91%
Map Size:250px
U.S. Senator
Before Election:Tina Smith
Before Party:Minnesota Democratic–Farmer–Labor Party
After Election:Tina Smith
After Party:Minnesota Democratic–Farmer–Labor Party

The 2020 United States Senate election in Minnesota was held on November 3, 2020, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Minnesota, concurrently with the 2020 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the U.S. Senate, elections to the United States House of Representatives and other state and local elections. Some Republican pundits and strategists believed Minnesota to be a potential pickup opportunity due to its increasingly favorable demographics and unexpectedly close result in the 2016 presidential election, along with potential backlash from the 2020 George Floyd protests, originating after the murder of George Floyd in Minneapolis. However, every poll showed incumbent Democratic Senator Tina Smith in the lead by varying degrees.

Smith was reelected to a full term in office by a margin of 5.2 points, making this the closest Senate election in Minnesota since 2008. The primary took place on August 11.[1]

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

Withdrawn

Results

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

Withdrawn

Declined

Results

Other candidates

Grassroots - Legalize Cannabis

Nominee

Results

Legal Marijuana Now

Nominee

Independent write-in candidate

Declared

General election

Debate

Two general election debates were held. The first, on October 2, 2020, was hosted by Minnesota Public Radio and was attended by Smith and Lewis.[25] The second debate was hosted by Twin Cities PBS on October 23, 2020, and attended only by Lewis.[26]

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
align=left The Cook Political Report[27] October 29, 2020
align=left Inside Elections[28] October 28, 2020
align=left Sabato's Crystal Ball[29] November 2, 2020
Daily Kos[30] October 30, 2020
Politico[31] November 2, 2020
RCP[32] October 23, 2020
DDHQ[33] November 3, 2020
538[34] November 2, 2020
Economist[35] November 2, 2020

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Tina
Smith (D)
Jason
Lewis (R)
OtherUndecided
Research Co.October 31 – November 1, 2020450 (LV)4.6%50%39%2%9%
Data for ProgressOctober 27 – November 1, 20201,259 (LV)± 2.8%54%44%2%
Swayable October 23 – November 1, 2020430 (LV)± 6.1%55%46%
Public Policy PollingOctober 29–30, 2020770 (V)51%42%6%
Targoz Market Research/PollSmartOctober 25–30, 20201,138 (LV)53%44%3%
St. Cloud State UniversityOctober 10–29, 2020372 (A)± 6.7%53%36%
SurveyUSA October 23–27, 2020649 (LV)± 4.3%45%42%3%10%
Gravis MarketingOctober 24–26, 2020657 (LV)± 3.8%53%39%8%
Civiqs/Daily KosOctober 17–20, 2020840 (LV)± 3.6%54%43%2%1%
SurveyUSA October 16–20, 2020625 (LV)± 5%43%42%3%12%
Change ResearchOctober 12–15, 20201,021 (LV)± 3.1%48%44%4%5%
SurveyUSA October 1–6, 2020929 (LV)± 3.9%44%37%4%16%
Suffolk UniversitySeptember 20–24, 2020500 (LV)± 4.4%45%35%6%14%
Mason-Dixon Polling & StrategySeptember 21–23, 2020800 (LV)± 3.5%49%41%10%
Redfield & Wilton StrategiesSeptember 12–17, 2020718 (LV)± 3.7%51%36%2%11%
CBS News/YouGovSeptember 9–11, 20201,087 (LV)± 3.9%47%40%2%10%
Siena College/NYT UpshotSeptember 8–10, 2020814 (LV)± 3.9%49%40%0%11%
SurveyUSASeptember 4–7, 2020553 (LV)± 5.2%47%36%3%14%
Public Policy PollingSeptember 3–4, 2020877 (V)± 3.3%49%41%3%7%
Harper Polling (R)August 30 – September 1, 2020501 (LV)± 4.4%43%41%10%
Emerson CollegeAugust 8–10, 2020733 (LV)± 3.6%48%45%7%
Public Policy Polling (D)July 22–23, 20201,218 (V)± 3.2%48%39%13%
Harper Polling (R)May 26–28, 2020510 (LV)46%35%20%
with Generic Democrat and Generic Republican
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Generic
Democrat
Generic
Republican
OtherUndecided
PPPSep 3–4, 2020877 (V)± 3.3%51%44%4%
Harper Polling/Jason LewisAug 30 – Sep 1, 2020501 (LV)± 4.38%45%43%3%9%
Emerson CollegeAug 8–10, 2020733 (LV)± 3.6%48%46%7%
Harper Polling (R)May 26–28, 2020510 (LV)44%40%

Results

County[36] Tina Smith
DFL
Jason Lewis
Republican
Kevin O'Connor
LMN
Oliver Steinberg
G—LC
Write-inMarginTotal votes
data-sort-type="number" data-sort-type="number" %data-sort-type="number" data-sort-type="number" %data-sort-type="number" data-sort-type="number" %data-sort-type="number" data-sort-type="number" %data-sort-type="number" data-sort-type="number" %
Aitkin3,47435.295,76158.524624.691431.4550.05-2,287-23.239,845
Anoka89,41643.2498,04347.4115,3857.443,8421.861180.06-8,627-4.17206,804
Becker6,37033.4911,27459.281,0695.622971.5690.05-4,904-25.7819,019
Beltrami9,98741.8811,46848.091,8047.575642.37220.09-1,481-6.2123,845
Benton6,83531.3912,91559.321,5397.074652.14170.08-6,080-27.9321,771
Big Stone1,10637.521,63755.531635.53391.3230.10-531-18.012,948
Blue Earth16,52746.7815,04042.572,8478.068712.47410.121,4874.2135,326
Brown4,80833.238,73660.386904.772241.55100.07-3,928-27.1514,468
Carlton9,57748.018,90644.651,0925.473611.81110.066713.3619,947
Carver27,61642.1633,62351.333,2925.039281.42380.06-6,007-9.1765,497
Cass5,91332.6610,87760.089665.333331.84160.09-4,964-27.4218,105
Chippewa2,27034.773,80758.323585.48901.3830.05-1,537-23.546,528
Chisago11,01432.6219,70058.342,3406.936922.05200.06-8,686-25.7233,766
Clay15,13647.9913,30842.202,3487.457162.27290.091,8285.8031,537
Clearwater1,22426.503,07866.652425.24691.4950.11-1,854-40.154,618
Cook2,34463.081,16231.271333.58731.9640.111,18231.813,716
Cottonwood1,79429.943,79663.353215.36801.3310.02-2,002-33.415,992
Crow Wing12,96432.7623,79260.112,0325.137741.96160.04-10,828-27.3639,578
Dakota131,39450.89107,11741.4915,3185.934,1621.611960.0824,2779.40258,187
Dodge4,01333.456,92457.718066.722482.0760.05-2,911-24.2611,997
Douglas7,61732.0314,77562.131,0554.443211.35140.06-7,158-30.1023,782
Faribault2,53132.664,62459.664445.731481.9130.04-2,093-27.017,750
Fillmore4,69639.226,44053.796255.222051.7160.05-1,744-14.5711,972
Freeborn6,79741.098,36450.571,0576.393131.89100.06-1,567-9.4716,541
Goodhue11,18639.4515,17153.501,4865.244891.72250.09-3,985-14.0528,357
Grant1,34937.512,04456.841634.53391.0810.03-695-19.333,596
Hennepin478,12964.46209,75428.2841,2825.5612,1301.634960.07268,37536.18741,791
Houston4,47839.965,77851.567006.252432.1780.07-1,300-11.6011,207
Hubbard4,28133.437,71360.235724.472321.8170.06-3,432-26.8012,805
Isanti6,75128.3414,77462.011,6717.016082.55200.08-8,023-33.6823,824
Itasca10,46339.8813,94953.171,3535.164581.74140.05-3,486-13.2926,237
Jackson1,74430.553,52461.743235.661152.0120.04-1,780-31.185,708
Kanabec2,61228.915,65762.625776.391852.0530.03-3,045-33.719,034
Kandiyohi8,11735.3213,38858.251,1515.013121.36160.07-5,271-22.9322,984
Kittson1,11642.971,35051.98983.77321.2310.04-234-9.012,597
Koochiching2,63739.083,62953.783655.411141.6930.04-992-14.706,748
Lac qui Parle1,47737.082,31458.101393.49521.3110.02-837-21.013,983
Lake3,48548.953,15544.313324.661442.0240.063304.647,120
Lake of the Woods65027.611,54565.631215.14371.5710.04-895-38.022,354
Le Sueur5,40132.749,82559.569695.872971.8050.03-4,424-26.8216,497
Lincoln91129.551,93662.801835.94491.5940.13-1,025-33.253,083
Lyon4,46435.037,40158.086685.241951.53140.11-2,937-23.0512,742
Mahnomen1,03945.851,00744.441697.46482.1230.13321.412,266
Marshall1,49029.733,25564.961983.95621.2460.12-1,765-35.225,011
Martin3,34830.796,70761.686135.642001.8460.05-3,359-30.8910,874
McLeod6,11429.6412,87562.431,2235.933931.91190.09-6,761-32.7820,624
Meeker3,88929.128,57564.206644.972211.6570.05-4,686-35.0813,356
Mille Lacs4,12328.748,85161.691,0257.143342.33150.10-4,728-32.9514,348
Morrison4,45223.2513,36869.821,0125.293071.6070.04-8,916-46.5719,146
Mower8,47244.928,61545.681,3807.323852.0470.04-143-0.7618,859
Murray1,44830.153,08164.152214.60521.0810.02-1,633-34.004,803
Nicollet8,99247.648,39744.481,0625.634122.18130.075953.1518,876
Nobles2,77632.874,95958.725436.431621.9250.06-2,183-25.858,445
Norman1,49744.591,61748.171935.75481.4320.06-120-3.573,357
Olmsted45,54351.2236,97241.584,7305.321,6041.80600.078,5719.6488,909
Otter Tail11,72832.7521,73860.701,8175.075101.42190.05-10,010-27.9535,812
Pennington2,57435.763,91954.455667.861331.8550.07-1,345-18.697,197
Pine5,05532.169,34159.441,0056.393101.9750.03-4,286-27.2715,716
Pipestone1,20024.683,32468.372645.43711.4630.06-2,124-43.694,862
Polk5,57736.458,55955.949175.992361.54100.06-2,982-19.4915,299
Pope2,39034.664,13559.962904.20771.1240.06-1,745-25.306,896
Ramsey188,78465.5573,63825.5719,0876.636,1582.143240.11115,14639.98287,991
Red Lake76935.921,22257.081145.32331.5431.40-453-21.162,141
Redwood2,29728.065,41566.153554.341141.3950.06-3,118-38.098,186
Renville2,50031.474,92762.013904.911221.5460.07-2,427-30.557,945
Rice16,20146.2015,99945.632,1386.107012.00240.072020.5835,063
Rock1,46128.423,28663.932945.72981.9110.02-1,825-35.515,140
Roseau2,32127.935,49466.113964.76951.1440.05-3,173-38.188,310
Scott35,75841.3444,21551.115,2186.031,2691.47460.05-8,457-9.7886,506
Sherburne16,58430.4633,14560.883,7026.809741.79420.08-16,561-30.4254,447
Sibley2,36828.525,39164.944265.131121.3550.06-3,023-36.418,302
St. Louis63,03653.8145,01638.436,5455.592,4512.09870.0718,02015.38117,135
Stearns29,93135.8947,08056.454,8435.811,4841.78640.08-17,149-20.5683,402
Steele7,41236.0011,35855.161,3816.714352.1150.02-3,946-19.1620,591
Stevens1,90638.022,84856.811923.83671.3400.00-942-18.795,013
Swift1,83835.703,02058.662264.39631.2210.02-1,182-22.965,148
Todd3,35425.688,84267.706504.982051.57100.08-5,488-42.0213,061
Traverse65635.871,04557.13985.36271.4830.16-389-21.271,829
Wabasha4,51335.027,53558.476434.991901.4750.04-3,022-23.4512,886
Wadena1,97726.095,04166.524195.531371.8140.05-3,064-40.437,578
Waseca3,36532.956,04359.176296.161721.6840.04-2,678-26.2210,213
Washington80,47949.2171,90643.978,3825.122,6791.641060.068,5735.24163,552
Watonwan1,96038.482,75254.022985.85811.5930.06-792-15.555,094
Wilkin1,09532.611,98859.202036.05712.1110.03-893-26.593,358
Winona12,00245.4811,96145.321,8136.875942.25200.08410.1626,390
Wright25,89634.9648,17365.045,0096.761,5232.06600.08-22,277-30.0874,069
Yellow Medicine1,67830.783,43663.022704.95651.1930.06-1,758-32.245,452
Totals1,566,52248.741,398,14543.50190,1545.9257,1741.782,2610.07168,3775.243,214,256
Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

By congressional district

Smith and Lewis each won 4 congressional districts.

DistrictSmithLewisRepresentative
41.9%48.8%Jim Hagedorn
47.9%44.5%Angie Craig
53.1%40.1%Dean Phillips
61.7%30.1%Betty McCollum
73.4%18.3%Ilhan Omar
36%55.7%Tom Emmer
34%58.9%Collin Peterson
Michelle Fischbach
40%52.3%Pete Stauber

See also

Notes

Partisan clients

External links

Official campaign websites

Notes and References

  1. Web site: MPR News . Primary primer: What you need to know about Minnesota's August election . Montgomery . David H. . June 5, 2020 . July 15, 2020.
  2. News: Keen. Judy. Tina Smith faces tough challengers in fight to keep U.S. Senate seat. Star Tribune. July 9, 2018. December 7, 2018.
  3. Web site: The Washington Times . Minnesota . May 17, 2020 . May 14, 2020 . https://web.archive.org/web/20200514155837/https://www.washingtontimes.com/elections/candidates/steve-carlson-b52448/ . dead .
  4. Web site: Former Green Party candidate Overby to seek DFL endorsement. www.wtip.org. February 21, 2020. February 21, 2020. https://web.archive.org/web/20200221212248/https://www.wtip.org/former-green-party-candidate-overby-seek-dfl-endorsement. dead.
  5. Web site: December 6, 2019 . May 17, 2020 . Bill Hamm announces candidacy for US Senate . Kanabec County Times.
  6. Web site: The Green Papers: Minnesota 2020 General Election. May 17, 2020 . The Green Papers . May 15, 2020 .
  7. Web site: Jason Lewis to challenge Tina Smith for U.S. Senate seat. Star Tribune. 2019-08-22.
  8. Web site: Calling all (reasonable) Republicans to take your party back. Star Tribune. 2020-06-06.
  9. Web site: Gail . Cynthia . Candidate's View: Pandemic has been particularly hard on students . Duluth News Tribune . August 27, 2020 . July 19, 2020.
  10. Web site: Van Oot. Torey. Morning Hot Dish. Star Tribune. July 16, 2019. July 16, 2019. https://web.archive.org/web/20190716033015/https://t.e2ma.net/message/3x1txf/jehpy5b. dead.
  11. Web site: May 15, 2020 . STATE GOP CONVENTION TO BE HELD VIRTUALLY ON SATURDAY . KNSI Radio . Jennifer . Lewerenz . May 14, 2020 . May 21, 2020 . https://web.archive.org/web/20200521152710/https://knsiradio.com/news/local-news/state-gop-convention-be-held-virtually-saturday . dead .
  12. Web site: Minnesota Senate 2020 race . May 15, 2020 . Open Secrets.
  13. Web site: May 17, 2020 . Talking Points: Former Congressman Jason Lewis Discusses Senate Run . February 9, 2020 . Esme . Murphy . CBS Minnesota.
  14. Web site: Financial summary. 2019-10-24.
  15. News: Recent LG Nominee Considering Smith Challenge. Cohen. Zach C.. December 5, 2018. December 5, 2018. National Journal.
  16. News: Croman . John . Sen. Smith's next opponent is still unclear . July 8, 2019 . Kare 11 . July 5, 2019.
  17. Web site: Bill Guidera announces he's not running for #mnsen. Olson. Blois. 2019-08-19. @bloisolson. en. 2019-08-19.
  18. News: Bakst. Brian. Housley passes on U.S. Senate rematch in 2020. Minnesota Public Radio. July 2, 2019. July 2, 2019.
  19. Web site: Morning Hot Dish. https://web.archive.org/web/20190712161907/https://t.e2ma.net/message/fnp2rd/n5k5jib. dead. July 12, 2019. Coolican. J. Patrick. March 7, 2019. Star Tribune. March 7, 2019.
  20. Web site: Theo Keith on Twitter: "Republican Doug Wardlow, who was once considering his own bid for U.S. Senate in 2020, throws his support behind Jason Lewis, who announced his candidacy this morning.". Keith. Theo. 2019-08-22. Twitter. en. 2019-08-22.
  21. Web site: Minnesota 2020 Senate Candidate List . June 2, 2020 . June 2, 2020.
  22. Web site: WRITE - IN CANDIDATE VOTE GEORGE DENNIS JR. FOR U.S. SENATOR MINNESOTA . October 12, 2020 . George Dennis Jr. . October 11, 2020 . October 13, 2020 . https://web.archive.org/web/20201013000036/https://www.georgedennisjr.com/ . dead .
  23. Web site: Ondich, Josh D.. Our Campaigns . October 12, 2020 . June 23, 2016 .
  24. Web site: MINNESOTA. PoliticsOne . October 13, 2020 . October 10, 2020 .
  25. Web site: Minnesota U.S. Senate Debate | C-SPAN.org. www.c-span.org.
  26. Web site: Almanac - U.S. Senate Candidate Jason Lewis. Twin Cities PBS.
  27. Web site: 2020 Senate Race Ratings for October 29, 2020 . The Cook Political Report . March 11, 2021.
  28. Web site: 2020 Senate Ratings . Senate Ratings . The Rothenberg Political Report . March 11, 2021.
  29. Web site: 2020 Senate race ratings . Sabato's Crystal Ball . March 12, 2021.
  30. Web site: 2020 Senate Race Ratings . Daily Kos Elections. March 13, 2021.
  31. Web site: 2020 Election Forecast. November 19, 2019 . Politico.
  32. Web site: Battle for the Senate 2020. October 23, 2020 . RCP.
  33. Web site: September 2, 2020 . 2020 Senate Elections Model. September 2, 2020 . Decision Desk HQ.
  34. Web site: Silver . Nate . Forecasting the race for the Senate . . September 18, 2020 . September 18, 2020.
  35. Web site: November 2, 2020 . Forecasting the US elections . March 13, 2021 . The Economist.
  36. Web site: State of Minnesota Canvassing Report . . November 24, 2020 . January 27, 2022 .