Demographics of Kazakhstan explained

Place:	Kazakhstan
Size Of Population:	20,095,963 (1 April, 2024)^[1]
Growth:	13.5/1,000 population (2010 est.)
Birth:	22.4 births/1,000 population (2010 est.)
Death:	8.9 deaths/1,000 population (2010 est.)
Life:	72.25 years
Life Male:	67.12 years
Life Female:	77.06 years (2021 est.)
Infant Mortality:	18.4 deaths/1,000 live births
Fertility:	3.3 children born/woman (2021 est.)^[2]
Age 0-14 Years:	29.5% (male 3,001,983/female 2,833,471)
Age 15-64 Years:	62.0% (male 6,028,354/female 6,224,431)
Age 65 Years:	8.5% (male 617,364/female 1,061,204) (2023 Est.)^[3]
Total Mf Ratio:	0.95
Sr At Birth:	1.06 male(s)/female
Sr Under 15:	1.05 male(s)/female
Sr 15-64 Years:	0.95 male(s)/female
Sr 65 Years Over:	0.54 male(s)/female
Nation:	Kazakh(s) or Kazakhstani(s)
Major Ethnic:	Kazakh
Minor Ethnic:	Russian, Uzbek, Ukrainian, Uyghur, Tatar, German
Official:	Kazakh
Spoken:	Kazakh, Russian and others

The demographics of Kazakhstan enumerate the demographic features of the population of Kazakhstan, including population growth, population density, ethnicity, education level, health, economic status, religious affiliations, and other aspects of the population. Some use the word Kazakh to refer to the Kazakh ethnic group and language (autochthonous to Kazakhstan as well as parts of China and Mongolia) and Kazakhstani to refer to Kazakhstan and its citizens regardless of ethnicity,^{[4] [5]} but it is common to use Kazakh in both senses.^{[6] [7] [8]} It is expected that by 2050, the population will range from 23.5 to 27.7 million people.^[9]

Overview

Official estimates put the population of Kazakhstan at 18,137,300 as of December 2017, of which 44% is rural and 56% urban population.^[10] The 2009 population estimate is 6.8% higher than the population reported in the last census from January 1999 (slightly less than 15 million). These estimates have been confirmed by the 2009 population census, and this means that the decline in population that began after 1989 has been arrested and reversed.

In a report released by the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs (DESA) in September 2021, the level of urbanization in Kazakhstan is estimated to reach 69.1% by 2050.^[11]

The proportion of men makes up 48.3%, the proportion of women 51.7%. The proportion of Kazakhs makes up 70.7%, Russians 15.2%, Uzbeks 2.9%, Ukrainians 2.1%, Uygur 1.4%, Tatars 1.3%, Germans 1.1%, others 3.9%. Note that a large percentage of the population are of mixed ethnicity.

The first census in Kazakhstan was conducted under Russian Imperial rule in 1897, which estimated population at round 4 million people. Following censuses showed a growth until 1939, where numbers showed a decrease to 6,081 thousand relative to the previous census done 13 years earlier, due to famines of 1922 and 1933.

See main article: Kazakh famine of 1919–1922 and Kazakh famine of 1932–33. But since 1939 population has steadily increased to 16.5 million in 1989, according to corresponding year census. Official estimates indicate that the population continued to increase after 1989, peaking out at 17 million in 1993 and then declining to 15 million in the 1999 census. The downward trend continued through 2002, when the estimated population bottomed out at 14.9 million, and then resumed its growth.^[12] Significant numbers of Russians returned to Russia. Kazakhstan underwent significant urbanization during the first 50 years of the Soviet era, as the share of the rural population declined from more than 90% in the 1920s to less than 50% since the 1970s. The fertility rate declined to amongst the lower rates in the world in 1999 and increased to again amongst the higher rates in the world in 2021.

Population size and structure

Population of Kazakhstan 1897–2018

Year (January)	Population (thousands)	Rural, %	Urban, %	Source
1897	4,000			census
1926	6,198			census
1939	6,081			census
1959	9,295			census
1970	13,001			census
1979	14,685			census
1989	16,537			census
1999	14,953			census
2009	15,982			census
2023	20,137			estimate

Data sources: Population 1897 from Russian Empire Census. Population 1926 from First All-Union Census of the Soviet Union. Population 1939–1999 from demoscope.ru,^[12] 2002–2008 from Kazakhstan Statistical Agency web site.^[13] Rural/urban shares 1939–1993 from statistical yearbooks, print editions,^[14] 2002–2008 from Kazakhstan Statistical Agency web site.^[13] 2009–2014 from Kazakhstan Statistical Agency web site.^[15]

As of 2003, there were discrepancies between Western sources regarding the population of Kazakhstan. United States government sources, including the CIA World Fact Book and the US Census Bureau International Data Base, listed the population as 15,340,533,^[16] while the World Bank gave a 2002 estimate of 14,858,948.^[17] This discrepancy was presumably due to difficulties in measurement caused by the large migratory population in Kazakhstan, emigration, and low population density – only about 5.5 persons per km² in an area the size of Western Europe.

Structure of the population

Population Estimates by Sex and Age Group (01.VII.2021) (Data refer to resident population.):^[18]

Age Group	Male	Female	Total	%
Total	9 223 589	9 777 399	19 000 988	100
0	223 552	209 539	433 090	2.28
1–4	818 257	766 788	1 585 045	8.34
5–9	982 270	927 108	1 909 377	10.05
10–14	857 617	811 696	1 669 313	8.76
15–19	643 879	610 943	1 254 821	6.60
20–24	568 174	544 634	1 112 808	5.86
25–29	699 428	680 033	1 379 461	7.26
30–34	793 785	815 781	1 609 566	8.47
35–39	690 052	709 580	1 399 631	7.37
40–44	586 612	615 237	1 201 849	6.33
45–49	525 164	576 347	1 101 510	5.80
50–54	475 079	532 077	1 007 156	5.30
55–59	449 996	534 713	984 709	5.18
60–64	375 734	486 204	861 938	4.54
65–69	241 436	361 664	603 099	3.17
70–74	149 026	263 406	412 432	2.17
75–79	60 581	122 881	183 462	0.97
80–84	57 026	141 863	198 889	1.05
85–89	17 029	47 320	64 348	0.34
90–94	5 915	15 747	21 662	0.11
95–99	1 980	3 013	4 993	0.03
100+	1 002	831	1 832	0.01
Age group	Male	Female	Total	Percent
0–14	2 881 696	2 715 129	5 596 825	29.46
15–64	5 807 898	6 105 548	11 913 446	62.70
65+	533 995	956 722	1 490 717	7.84

Structure of the population (01.01.2021) (Estimates):^[19]

Age Group	Male	Female	Total	%
Total	9 160 399	9 719 153	18 879 552	100
0–15	2 980 297	2 809 236	5 789 533	30.7
16–62(59)	5 524 137	5 485 235	11 009 372	58.3
63(60)+	655 965	1 424 682	2 080 647	11.0

The age group under 15 is considered below the working age, while the age group over 63(60) is above the working age (63 years for men, 60 for women).

Vital statistics

Births and deaths

^{[20] [21] [22] [23]}

	Average population	Live births^1	Deaths^1	Natural change^1	Crude birth rate (per 1000)	Crude death rate (per 1000)	Natural change (per 1000)	Crude migration change (per 1000)	Fertility rates	Life expectancy
1950	6,703,000	254,169	79,005	175,164	37.9	11.8	26.1
1951	6,946,000	272,354	80,553	191,801	39.2	11.6	27.6	8.7
1952	7,133,000	265,235	85,241	179,994	37.2	12.0	25.2	1.7
1953	7,271,000	262,758	73,930	188,828	36.1	10.2	26.0	-6.7
1954	7,528,000	278,420	76,092	202,328	37.0	10.1	26.9	8.4
1955	7,992,000	299,854	73,283	226,571	37.5	9.2	28.3	33.3
1956	8,426,000	305,430	64,807	240,623	36.3	7.7	28.6	25.7
1957	8,722,000	326,766	68,050	258,716	37.5	7.8	29.7	5.4
1958	9,077,000	336,020	62,680	273,340	37.0	6.9	30.1	10.6
1959	9,516,000	349,794	69,602	280,192	36.8	7.3	29.4	19.0
1960	9,996,000	372,595	65,667	306,928	37.2	6.6	30.7	19.7
1961	10,480,000	377,789	68,610	309,179	36.1	6.5	29.5	18.9
1962	10,958,000	369,002	70,952	298,050	33.7	6.5	27.2	18.4
1963	11,321,000	346,084	67,218	278,866	30.6	5.9	24.6	8.5
1964	11,610,000	324,412	66,197	258,215	27.9	5.7	22.2	3.3
1965	11,909,000	314,533	69,803	244,730	26.4	5.9	20.6	5.2
1966	12,185,000	307,905	69,402	238,503	25.3	5.7	19.6	3.6
1967	12,456,000	301,715	71,824	229,891	24.2	5.8	18.5	3.7
1968	12,694,000	296,882	73,496	223,386	23.4	5.8	17.6	1.5
1969	12,901,000	297,129	78,660	218,469	23.0	6.1	16.9	-0.6
1970	13,106,000	301,451	77,619	223,832	23.0	5.9	17.1	-1.2
1971	13,321,000	317,423	79,881	237,542	23.8	6.0	17.8	-1.4
1972	13,534,000	318,551	85,122	233,429	23.5	6.3	17.2	-1.2
1973	13,742,000	321,075	90,282	230,793	23.4	6.6	16.8	-1.4
1974	13,955,000	338,291	93,582	244,709	24.2	6.7	17.5	-2.0
1975	14,136,000	343,668	101,865	241,803	24.3	7.2	17.1	-4.1
1976	14,279,000	350,362	103,892	246,470	24.5	7.3	17.3	-7.2
1977	14,425,000	349,379	105,376	244,003	24.2	7.3	16.9	-6.7
1978	14,589,000	355,337	107,293	248,044	24.4	7.4	17.0	-5.6
1979	14,743,000	354,320	113,687	240,633	24.0	7.7	16.3	-5.7
1980	14,884,000	356,013	119,078	236,935	23.9	8.0	15.9	-6.3
1981	15,033,000	367,950	120,974	246,976	24.5	8.0	16.4	-6.4
1982	15,185,000	373,416	120,165	253,251	24.6	7.9	16.7	-6.6
1983	15,334,000	378,577	123,807	254,770	24.7	8.1	16.6	-6.8
1984	15,481,000	399,403	129,796	269,607	25.8	8.4	17.4	-7.8	3.04
1985	15,623,000	396,929	126,786	270,143	25.4	8.1	17.3	-8.1	3.02
1986	15,776,000	410,846	119,149	291,697	26.0	7.6	18.5	-8.7	3.13
1987	15,948,000	417,139	122,835	294,304	26.2	7.7	18.5	-7.6	3.19
1988	16,188,000	407,116	126,898	280,218	25.3	7.9	17.4	-2.4	3.13
1989	16,243,000	382,269	126,378	255,891	23.5	7.8	15.8	-12.4	2.81
1990	16,328,000	362,081	128,576	233,505	22.2	7.9	14.3	-9.1	2.72
1991	16,405,000	353,174	134,324	218,850	21.5	8.2	13.3	-8.6	2.67
1992	16,439,000	337,612	137,518	200,094	20.5	8.4	12.2	-10.1	2.62
1993	16,381,000	315,482	156,070	159,412	19.3	9.5	9.7	-13.2	2.54
1994	16,146,000	305,624	160,339	145,285	18.9	9.9	9.0	-23.3	2.43
1995	15,816,000	276,125	168,656	107,469	17.5	10.7	6.8	-27.2	2.21
1996	15,578,000	253,175	166,028	87,147	16.3	10.7	5.6	-20.6	2.02
1997	15,334,000	232,356	160,138	72,218	15.2	10.4	4.7	-20.4	1.93
1998	15,072,000	222,380	154,314	68,066	14.8	10.2	4.5	-21.6	1.81
1999	14,939,000	217,578	147,416	70,162	14.6	9.9	4.7	-13.5	1.80	65.6
2000	14,883,626	222,054	149,778	72,276	14.9	10.1	4.9	-8.6	1.88	65.5
2001	14,858,335	221,487	147,876	73,611	14.9	9.9	5.0	-6.7	1.84	65.8
2002	14,858,948	227,171	149,381	77,790	15.3	10.1	5.2	-5.2	1.88	66.0
2003	14,909,018	247,946	155,277	92,669	16.6	10.4	6.2	-2.8	2.03	65.8
2004	15,012,985	273,028	152,250	120,778	18.2	10.1	8.1	-1.1	2.21	66.2
2005	15,147,029	278,977	157,121	121,856	18.4	10.4	8.1	0.8	2.22	65.9
2006	15,308,084	301,756	157,210	144,546	19.7	10.3	9.4	1.2	2.36	66.2
2007	15,484,192	321,963	158,297	163,666	20.8	10.2	10.6	0.9	2.47	66.3
2008	15,674,000	357,555	152,878	204,677	22.8	9.8	13.0	-0.7	2.68	67.1
2009	16,092,822	356,261	142,883	213,378	22.1	8.9	13.3	13.4	2.55	68.4
2010	16,321,872	367,707	146,027	221,680	22.5	9.0	13.6	0.6	2.59	68.5
2011	16,557,201	372,690	144,323	228,367	22.5	8.7	13.8	0.6	2.59	68.7
2012	16,792,089	381,153	143,411	237,742	22.7	8.5	14.2	0	2.62	69.5
2013	17,035,550	387,256	136,368	250,888	22.7	8.0	14.7	-0.2	2.64	70.6
2014	17,288,285	399,309	132,287	267,022	23.1	7.7	15.5	-0.7	2.73	71.4
2015	17,542,806	398,458	130,811	267,647	22.7	7.5	15.3	-0.6	2.74	72.0
2016	17,794,055	400,694	131,231	269,463	22.5	7.4	15.2	-0.9	2.77	72.4
2017	18,037,775	390,262	129,009	261,253	21.6	7.2	14.5	-0.8	2.75	73.0
2018	18,276,452	397,799	130,448	267,351	21.8	7.1	14.6	-1.4	2.84	73.2
2019	18,513,673	402,310	133,128	269,182	21.7	7.2	14.5	-1.5	2.90	73.2
2020	18,755,665	426,824	161,333	265,491	22.8	8.6	14.2	-1.1	3.13	71.4
2021	19,000,987	446,491	182,403	264,088	23.5	9.6	13.9	-0.8	3.32	70.2
2022	19,634,983	403,893	133,523	270,370	20.6	6.8	13.8	19.6	3.05	74.4
2023	19,900,325	388,428	130,686	257,742	19.5	6.6	13.0	0.5	2.96	75.1

¹

Current vital statistics

^{[24] [25]}

Period	Live births	Deaths	Natural increase	+	January - June 2023	189,515	63,601	+125,914	+	January - June 2024	184,673	66,097	+118,576	+	Difference	-4,842 (-2.55%)	+2,496 (+3.92%)	-7,338

Total fertility rate

Total fertility rate by regions of Kazakhstan:

Mangystau – 3.80

South Kazakhstan – 3.71

Kyzylorda – 3.42

Atyrau – 3.29

Jambyl – 3.20

Aqtobe – 2.70

Almaty (province) – 2.65

Almaty (city) – 2.65

City of Astana – 2.44

West Kazakhstan – 2.29

Aqmola – 2.19

East Kazakhstan – 2.07

Qaragandy – 2.04

Pavlodar – 1.98

North Kazakhstan – 1.72

Qostanay – 1.70

Republic of Kazakhstan – 2.65Thus it can be seen that fertility rate is higher in more traditionalist and religious south and west, and lower in the north and east, where the percentage of Slavic and German population is still relatively high.^{[26] [27] [28]}

According to the Kazakhstan Demographic and Health Survey in 1999, the TFR for Kazakhs was 2.5 and that for Russians was 1.38. TFR in 1989 for Kazakhs & Russians were 3.58 and 2.24 respectively.^[29]

Year	Kazakh women	Russian women	Ukrainian women	Uzbek women
1989	3.58	2.24
1995	3.11	1.69
1999	2.50	1.38
2000	2.12	1.18	1.60	2.90
2001	2.11	1.17	1.59	2.92
2002	2.14	1.21	1.60	2.88
2003	2.30	1.30	1.71	3.10
2004	2.52	1.36	1.76	3.39
2005	2.54	1.35	1.73	3.32
2006	2.73	1.38	1.80	3.43

^[30]

Life expectancy at birth

Period	Life expectancy in Years	Period	Life expectancy in Years
1950–1955	55.1	1985–1990	67.5
1955–1960	57.3	1990–1995	65.5
1960–1965	59.5	1995–2000	63.0
1965–1970	61.7	2000–2005	64.6
1970–1975	63.3	2005–2010	66.0
1975–1980	64.3	2010–2015	69.1
1980–1985	65.9

Source: UN World Population Prospects^[31]

Ethnic groups

See main article: Ethnic demography of Kazakhstan.

Kazakhstan's dominant ethnic group, the Kazakhs, traces its origins to the 15th century, when after the disintegration of Golden Horde, numbers of Turkic and Turco-Mongol tribes united to establish the Kazakh Khanate. With a cohesive culture and national identity, they constituted an absolute majority on the land until colonization by the Russian empire.
Russian advances into the territory of Kazakhstan began in the late 18th century, when the Kazakhs nominally accepted Russian rule in exchange for protection against repeated attacks by the western Mongolian Kalmyks. In the 1890s, Russian peasants began to settle on the fertile lands of northern Kazakhstan, causing many Kazakhs to move eastwards into Chinese territory in search of new grazing grounds. The 1906 completion of the Trans-Aral Railway between Orenburg and Tashkent further facilitated Russian colonization.^{[32] [33]}

The first collective farms were formed in Kazakhstan in 1921, populated primarily by Russians and Soviet deportees. In 1930, as part of the first Five Year Plan, the Kazakh Central Committee decreed the sedentarization of nomads and their incorporation into collectivized farms. This movement resulted in devastating famines, claiming the lives of an estimated 40% of ethnic Kazakhs (1.5 million), between 1930 and 1933.^[34] Hundreds of thousands also fled to China, Iran and Afghanistan. The famine made Kazakhs a minority of the population of Kazakhstan, and only after the republic gained independence in 1991 did Kazakhs have a slim demographic majority within Kazakhstan.^[32]

Demographics did shift in the 1950s and 1960s, when, as part of Nikita Khrushchev's Virgin Lands Campaign, hundreds of thousands of Soviet citizens relocated to the Kazakh steppes in order to farm. As recognized in the 1959 census, the Kazaks became the second-largest ethnic group in Kazakhstan for the first time in recorded history, comprising just 30% of the total population of Kazakhstan. Russians numbered 42.7%.^[35]

Since the Soviet Union's collapse, the numbers of members of European ethnic groups has been falling and Asian groups have been continuously rising. According to 2024 estimates, the ethnic composition of Kazakhstan was approximately: 71% Kazakh, 14.9% Russian, 3.3% Uzbek, 1.9% Ukrainian, 1.5% Uyghur, 1.1% Tatar, 1.1% German, and <1% Korean, Turkish, Azerbaijani, Belarusian, Dungan, Kurdish, Tajik, Polish, Kyrgyz, Chechen.^[36] According to 2021 Census, composition of child population was 79% Kazakh and 9.1% Russian.^[37]

Population of Kazakhstan according to ethnic group 1897–1999

Census year	Kazakhs		Russians		Uzbeks		Ukrainians		Uygurs		Tatars		Germans		Koreans		Turks		Azerbaijanis		Belarusians		Poles		Chechens		Dungans		Tajiks		Kurds		Kyrgyz		Others		Total
		%		%		%		%		%		%		%		%		%		%		%		%		%		%		%		%		%		%
1897^[38]	3,392,751		454,402		29,564						55,984
1926^[39]	3,627,612		1,275,055		129,407		860,201		11,631		79,758		51,094		42		46		20		25,584		3,742		3		8,455		7,599				10,200		108,016		6,198,465
1939^[40]	2,327,625		2,458,687		120,655		658,319		35,409		108,127		92,571		96,453		523		12,996		31,614		54,809		2,639		7,415		11,229		2,387		5,033		124,611		6,151,102
1959^[41]	2,794,966		3,974,229		136,570		762,131		59,840		191,802		659,800		74,019		9,916		38,362		107,463		53,102		130,232		9,980		8,075		6,109		6,810		286,441		9,309,847
1970^[42]	4,161,164		5,499,826		207,514		930,158		120,784		281,849		839,649		78,078		18,397		56,166		197,592		61,355		34,492		17,283		7,166		12,299		9,474		315,347		12,848,573
1979^[43]	5,289,349		5,991,205		263,295		897,964		147,943		312,626		900,207		91,984		25,820		73,345		181,491		61,136		38,256		22,491		19,293		17,692		9,352		340,834		14,684,283
1989^[44]	6,534,616		6,227,549		332,017		896,240		185,301		327,982		957,518		103,315		49,567		90,083		182,601		59,956		49,507		30,165		25,514		25,425		14,112		372,996		16,464,464
1999	8,011,452		4,480,675		370,765		547,065		210,377		249,052		353,462		99,944		75,950		78,325		111,924		47,302		31,802		36,945		25,673		32,764		10,925		206,879		14,981,281
2009	10,096,763		3,793,764		456,997		333,031		224,713		204,229		178,409		100,385		97,015		85,292		66,476		34,057		31,431		51,944		36,277		38,325		23,274		157,215		16,009,597
2021^[45]	13,497,891		2,981,946		614,047		387,327		290,337		197,489		226,092		107,569		85,478		145,615		76,484		35,319		33,557		78,817		49,827		47,880		34,184		285,275		19,186,015
estimate 2024	14,220,321		2,983,317		660,564		375,914		301,584		219,201		224,343		120,262		90,015		152,847		75,048		34,569		34,698		83,948		55,873		50,264		38,596		312,478		20,033,842

Religion

See main article: Religion in Kazakhstan.

See also

• Ethnic conflicts in Kazakhstan

Bibliography

• .

External links

For current data, use these sites.

• Population and social policy, Statistical Agency of the Republic of Kazakhstan (kaz
• World Bank Database
• CIA World Fact Book page on Kazakhstan
• US Census Bureau International Data Base
• countrystudies.us
• WESP population statistics
• Russians left behind in Central Asia

Notes and References

1. Web site: Agency for Strategic planning and reforms of the Republic of Kazakhstan Bureau of National statistics - Main . 2023-07-02 . stat.gov.kz . en . 2023-06-18 . https://web.archive.org/web/20230618082159/https://stat.gov.kz/en/ . live .
2. Web site: World Bank Open Data . 2023-07-13 . World Bank Open Data . 2023-05-26 . https://web.archive.org/web/20230526025607/https://data.worldbank.org/ . live .
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