Jay Ulfelder Explained

Jay Ulfelder is an American political scientist who is best known for his work on political forecasting, specifically on anticipating various forms of political instability around the world.[1] [2] From 2001 to 2010, he served as research director of the Political Instability Task Force (PITF), which is funded by the Central Intelligence Agency.[1] [3] [4] He is also the author of a book[5] and several journal articles[6] [7] [8] [9] [10] on democratization, democratic backsliding, and contentious politics.

In the 2010s, Ulfelder maintained a blog called Dart-Throwing Chimp that offered commentary on geopolitical forecasting and other topics.[11] Around the same time, he worked as a consultant to the Simon-Skjodt Center for the Prevention of Genocide at the United States Holocaust Memorial Museum on the design of a public early warning system for mass atrocities in countries worldwide.[12] [13] From 2017 to 2019, Ulfelder worked for Koto, the national security and risk division of Kensho Technologies, on the development of software to support the work geopolitical analysts.[14] [15]

In 2020, Ulfelder became a Carr Center Fellow at the Harvard Kennedy School to work with Erica Chenoweth as program director for the Nonviolent Action Lab.[16]

Reception

Ulfelder has been cited and quoted as an expert on political forecasting and political instability in the New York Times[17] [18] [19] and the Washington Post.[20] [21] [22]

Ulfelder is an occasional contributor to Foreign Policy[23] and FiveThirtyEight.[24] [25] One of his pieces in Foreign Policy, on why forecasting political violence and unusual situations around the world was considerably harder than forecasting the results of elections in the United States,[26] received a lengthy response from Michael Ward and Nils Mitternich.[27]

In 2014, Ulfelder was interviewed on The Agenda with Steve Paikin about his work forecasting mass atrocities.[28] He has also been interviewed by Strife blog[4] and by the Center for Data Innovation[29] and gave a talk at TEDx Tbilisi in 2013.[30]

External links

Notes and References

  1. Web site: About. Dart-Throwing Chimp. June 3, 2014. Ulfelder. Jay. 25 November 2010.
  2. Web site: Jay Ulfelder. June 3, 2014.
  3. Web site: Political Instability Task Force Home. Center for Global Policy. June 3, 2014.
  4. Web site: Interview with Jay Ulfelder, Former Research Director at the Political Instability Task Force. January 17, 2014. June 3, 2014. Comley. David.
  5. Web site: Dilemmas of Democratic Consolidation: A Game Theory Approach. Lynne Rienner Publishers. December 4, 2020.
  6. Natural-Resource Wealth and the Survival of Autocracy. 2007. Comparative Political Studies. 10.1177/0010414006287238. December 4, 2020. Ulfelder. Jay. 40. 8. 995–1018. 154316752.
  7. Contentious Collective Action and the Breakdown of Authoritarian Regimes. 2005. International Political Science Review. 10.1177/0192512105053786. December 4, 2020. Ulfelder. Jay. 26. 3. 311–334. 146144884.
  8. Modelling Transitions To and From Democracy. 2007. Democratization. 10.1080/13510340701303196. December 4, 2020. Ulfelder. Jay. Lustik. Michael. 14. 3. 351–387. 1633808.
  9. International Integration and Democratization: An Event History Analysis. 2008. Democratization. 10.1080/13510340701846343. December 4, 2020. Ulfelder. Jay. 15. 2. 272–296. 145193122.
  10. Can Structural Conditions Explain the Onset of Nonviolent Uprisings?. 2017. Journal of Conflict Resolution. 10.1177/0022002715576574. December 4, 2020. Chenoweth. Erica. Ulfelder. Jay. 61. 2. 298–324. 145798044.
  11. Web site: Dart-Throwing Chimp. December 4, 2020.
  12. A Multimodel Ensemble for Forecasting Onsets of State-Sponsored Mass Killing. 2303048.
  13. Promising Initial Results from a New Mass-Atrocities Early Warning System. 26 January 2015. 2568644. Ulfelder. Jay.
  14. Web site: Welcome to Koto Analytics. 13 August 2020. December 4, 2020.
  15. Web site: Plotting Zimbabwe's Post-Coup Trajectory. 13 August 2020. December 4, 2020.
  16. Web site: Carr Center Fellows. December 4, 2020.
  17. Web site: Spreadsheets and Global Mayhem. Sengupta. Somini. March 22, 2014. June 3, 2014. New York Times.
  18. Web site: Crimea Through a Game-Theory Lens. Cowen. Tyler. Tyler Cowen. March 15, 2014. June 2, 2014. New York Times.
  19. Web site: Reads and Reactions. Cohen. Micah. April 6, 2012. June 3, 2014. New York Times.
  20. News: Thailand has had more coups than any other country. This is why.. Fisher. Max. December 3, 2013. June 3, 2014. Washington Post.
  21. News: A worrying map of the countries most likely to have a coup in 2014. Fisher. Max. . January 28, 2014. June 3, 2014.
  22. News: A global political stress test. Klein. Ezra. . Ezra Klein. August 12, 2011. June 3, 2014.
  23. Web site: Jay Ulfelder. Foreign Policy. June 3, 2014.
  24. Web site: The World Isn't Less Free Than It Used to Be. Ulfelder. Jay. February 11, 2016. December 4, 2020. FiveThirtyEight.
  25. Web site: It's Harder Than It Looks to Link Inequality With Global Turmoil. Ulfelder. Jay. January 7, 2016. December 4, 2020. FiveThirtyEight.
  26. Web site: Why the World Can't Have a Nate Silver. Ulfelder. Jay. November 8, 2012. June 3, 2014.
  27. Web site: Predicting the Future Is Easier Than It Looks. Ward. Michael D.. Metternich. Nils. November 16, 2012. June 3, 2014. Foreign Policy.
  28. Web site: Jay Ulfelder: Forecasting Conflict. December 4, 2020. April 28, 2014.
  29. Web site: 5 Q's for Social Science Forecasting Expert Jay Ulfelder. Korte. Travis. February 28, 2014. June 3, 2014.
  30. Web site: Why Dictators Build Things That Crumble. . December 4, 2020. May 14, 2013.

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