2017 Japanese general election explained

Country:Japan
Type:parliamentary
Previous Election:2014 Japanese general election
Previous Year:2014
Election Date:22 October 2017
Next Election:2021 Japanese general election
Next Year:2021
Previous Mps:Representatives elected in the Japanese general election, 2014
Elected Mps:Representatives elected in the Japanese general election, 2017
Seats For Election:All 465 seats in the House of Representatives
Majority Seats:233
Turnout:53.68% (1.03pp; Const. votes)
53.68% (1.03pp; PR votes)
1Blank:Constituency vote
2Blank:% and swing
3Blank:Regional vote
4Blank:% and swing
Leader1:Shinzō Abe
Party1:Liberal Democratic Party (Japan)
Last Election1:291 seats
Seats1:284
Seat Change1:7
1Data1:26,500,777
2Data1:47.82% (0.28pp)
3Data1:18,555,717
4Data1:33.28% (0.17pp)
Leader2:Yukio Edano
Party2:Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan
Last Election2:Did not exist
Seats2:55
Seat Change2:New
1Data2:4,726,326
2Data2:8.53% (New)
3Data2:11,084,890
4Data2:19.88% (New)
Leader3:Yuriko Koike
Party3:Kibō no Tō
Last Election3:Did not exist
Seats3:50
Seat Change3:New
1Data3:11,437,602
2Data3:20.64% (New)
3Data3:9,677,524
4Data3:17.36% (New)
Leader4:Natsuo Yamaguchi
Party4:Komeito
Last Election4:35 seats
Seats4:29
Seat Change4:6
1Data4:832,453
2Data4:1.50% (0.50pp)
3Data4:6,977,712
4Data4:12.51% (1.20pp)
Leader5:Kazuo Shii
Party5:Japanese Communist Party
Last Election5:21 seats
Seats5:12
Seat Change5:9
1Data5:4,998,932
2Data5:9.02% (4.28pp)
3Data5:4,404,081
4Data5:7.90% (3.47pp)
Leader6:Ichirō Matsui
Party6:Nippon Ishin no Kai
Last Election6:Did not exist
Seats6:11
Seat Change6:New
1Data6:1,765,053
2Data6:3.18% (New)
3Data6:3,387,097
4Data6:6.07% (New)
Prime Minister
Before Party:Liberal Democratic Party (Japan)
After Party:Liberal Democratic Party (Japan)

General elections were held in Japan on 22 October 2017.[1] Voting took place in all Representatives constituencies of Japan – 289 single-member districts and eleven proportional blocks – in order to appoint all 465 members (down from 475) of the House of Representatives, the lower house of the then 707-member bicameral National Diet of Japan. Incumbent Prime Minister Shinzō Abe's governing coalition of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and the Komeito party retained their seats in signs of what was perceived as weak opposition. The PM won his fourth term in office and held on to the two-thirds supermajority in order to implement policies on revising the war-renouncing Article 9 of the Japanese Constitution.[2]

The snap elections were called in the midst of the North Korea missile threat and with the largest opposition party, the Democratic Party, in disarray. Just hours before Abe's announcement of the snap election on 25 September, Governor of Tokyo Yuriko Koike launched a new conservative reformist party Kibō no Tō, the Party of Hope, which was seen as a viable alternative to the ruling coalition. It soon led to the dissolution of the Democratic Party and its party members defecting to the Kibō no Tō.[3] However, the liberal wing of the Democratic Party, whose members Koike refused to nominate, formed the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan (CDP) led by Yukio Edano, splitting the opposition in half.[4] The elections turned into a three-way contest as the CDP joined with the Japanese Communist Party and Social Democratic Party on a common platform opposing the constitutional revision. While Kibō no Tō fell short of expectation, the CDP surged in the polls in the last days before the elections and beat Kibō no Tō to emerge as the largest opposition party.[5]

Despite being disrupted by Typhoon Lan, the elections saw a slight increase in turnout rate of 53.68 percent but still was the second lowest in postwar Japan. The lowest ever turnout was recorded in 2014.[6] They were also the first elections after the voting age was lowered from 20 to 18. Abe also became the first Prime Minister to win three consecutive general elections since 1953 and the first LDP leader to do so. He became the longest-serving Prime Minister in the history of the country in August 2020, but resigned shortly after achieving this due to health issues.[7]

Background

The House of Representatives has a fixed term of four years. Under the postwar constitution drafted in 1947, the interpretation of Article 7 states that the cabinet may instruct the Emperor to dissolve the House of Representatives before the end of term at will. Elections must be held within 40 days after dissolution.[8] In June 2015, the Public Office Election Law was amended to lower the voting age from 20 to 18 years of age.[9]

As of June 2015, the largest opposition party Democratic Party of Japan was reportedly preparing a roster of up to 250 candidates so as to be prepared in the event that the next general election was to be held alongside the House of Councillors election in the summer of 2016, before it merged with the Japan Innovation Party to form the Democratic Party in March 2016.[10] The Democratic Party suffered a considerable defeat at the hands of the ruling coalition in the election, in which the Abe government took almost two-thirds of the seats.

In January 2017, Tokyo Governor Yuriko Koike established a new local party, Tomin First, to challenge the establishment Liberal Democratic Party in the Tokyo metropolitan election to be held in July. Tomin First won a resounding victory in the election, which came in the wake of the Moritomo Gakuen and Kake Gakuen scandals calling into question the propriety of the Abe government's decision making.[11] [12] After the election, Defense Minister Tomomi Inada resigned in connection with another scandal involving the Japan Self-Defense Forces concealing evidence of a battle in South Sudan. Meanwhile, the main national opposition Democratic Party was severely hurt by the resignation of its leader Renho in July, as well as several high-profile defections.[13]

The government of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe began publicly discussing the possibility of an election in mid-September 2017, as the North Korea crisis was ongoing. Continuing the momentum of her Tokyo election victory, Koike announced the formation of a new national political party, Kibō no Tō (Party of Hope), on 25 September. Abe called the general election just hours later on the same day. Soon after the Party of Hope was established, Democratic Party leader Seiji Maehara sought to merge with Kibō no Tō. Maehara's decision was strongly criticised by the liberal wing of the party, whose candidacies were rejected by Koike. The liberal wing surrounding the deputy president Yukio Edano announced the formation of the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan on 2 October 2017.[14] Opposition politicians claim Abe called the election partly to evade further questioning in parliament over his alleged misuse of power in securing approval for a veterinary college campus in Imabari.[15]

One wedge issue between the two major coalitions is the scheduled consumption tax hike in October 2019. The LDP coalition advocates keeping the tax hike and using the funds for child care and education, while the Kibo coalition advocates freezing the tax hike.[16] Nonetheless, Koike stated on 8 October that she was open to the option of a grand coalition with the LDP.[17]

The LDP fielded 332 candidates, while Komeito fielded 53, Kibō no Tō fielded 235, and Nippon Ishin fielded 52. The Constitutional Democratic Party, Japanese Communist Party and Social Democratic Party joined forces to support a total number of 342 candidates on the common platform of opposing the revision the pacifist Article 9 of the Constitution of Japan and the new national security legislation.[18] [19]

Several U.S.-Japan policy experts, including James Zumwalt and Michael Green, opined in October that the election was unlikely to have a major impact on policy as the LDP was expected to retain control; however, there was anxiety about the prospect of a leadership vacuum if Abe was eventually forced to resign as head of the LDP.[20]

Political parties and candidates

See also: List of political parties in Japan.

Numbers of candidates by party
width=80px colspan=2Partywidth=50pxBefore electionwidth=50pxConst.width=50pxPRwidth=50pxTotal
290 277 313 332
57 198 234 235
34 9 44 53
21 206 65 243
15 63 77 78
14 47 52 52
2 19 21 21
0 0 2 2
Others 0 44 47 91
Ind. 39 73 73
Total 472 936 855 1,180
PartiesLeaderIdeologySeatsStatus
Last electionBefore election
Liberal Democratic PartyShinzo AbeConservatism
Democratic PartySeiji MaeharaLiberalismrowspan="3"
Kibō no TōYuriko KoikeConservatismDid not exist
KomeitoNatsuo Yamaguchi
Japanese Communist PartyKazuo ShiiCommunismrowspan="5"
Constitutional Democratic Party of JapanYukio EdanoLiberalismDid not exist
Nippon Ishin no KaiIchirō MatsuiConservatismDid not exist
Social Democratic PartyTadatomo YoshidaSocial democracy

Ruling coalition

Koike's coalition

Pacifist coalition

Other parties

Gender representation

Fewer than 20% of the 1,180 candidates that ran in the election were women. 9% of current elected figures are women, Japan ranks 165th out of 193 countries on this aspect.[27]

Opinion polls

Voting intention (PR blocks)

Voting intention (districts)

Party approval

Preferred prime minister

Preferred outcome

Cabinet approval / disapproval ratings

Results

See main article: Results of the 2017 Japanese general election.

By prefecture

PrefectureTotal
seats
Seats won
LDPCDPKibōKomeitoIshinJCPSDPInd.
Aichi158232
Akita33
Aomori33
Chiba13121
Ehime431
Fukui22
Fukuoka1111
Fukushima532
Gifu55
Gunma55
Hiroshima761
Hokkaido12651
Hyōgo12102
Ibaraki761
Ishikawa33
Iwate3111
Kagawa321
Kagoshima431
Kanagawa1813311
Kōchi211
Kumamoto44
Kyoto6411
Mie422
Miyagi651
Miyazaki33
Nagano5221
Nagasaki431
Nara33
Niigata6213
Ōita33
Okayama55
Okinawa41111
Osaka19101431
Saga211
Saitama151311
Shiga44
Shimane22
Shizuoka862
Tochigi541
Tokushima22
Tokyo2519411
Tottori22
Toyama33
Wakayama321
Yamagata33
Yamaguchi44
Yamanashi211
Total2892181818831122

By PR block

PR blockTotal
seats
Seats won
LDPCDPKibōKomeitoJCPIshinSDP
Chūgoku115222
Hokkaido83311
Hokuriku–Shinetsu 1152211
Kinki28953425
Kyushu207343111
Northern Kanto1975421
Shikoku63111
Southern Kanto22854221
Tohoku1353311
Tokai21845211
Tokyo1764322
Total176663732211181

Notable defeats

PartyNameConstituencyYear electedDefeated byPartyDetails
data-sort-value="Yamamoto, Yuji"Yūji YamamotoKochi-2nd1990 (in Kochi-3rd)data-sort-value="Hirota, Hajime"Hajime HirotaAgriculture Minister in the Third Abe Cabinet. He was returned to the Diet through the Shikoku PR block.[28]
data-sort-value="Nishikawa, Koya"Koya NishikawaTochigi-2nd (Kita-Kantō PR block)1996data-sort-value="Fukuda, Akio"Akio FukudaAgriculture Minister in the Second Abe Cabinet who was defeated in the district in 2014 but managed to return through the PR block at that time. He didn't enter the block this time round and therefore was not returned to the Diet.[29]
data-sort-value="Nakagawa, Yuuko"Yūko NakagawaHokkaido-11th2012data-sort-value="Ishikawa, Kaori"Kaori IshikawaMP since 2012 and widow of former Finance Minister, Shōichi Nakagawa.[30]
data-sort-value="Yamada, Miki"Miki YamadaTokyo-1st2012data-sort-value="Kaieda, Banri"Banri KaiedaVice Minister of Foreign Affairs in the Third Abe Cabinet. Yamada famously defeated former DPJ leader Kaieda in the 2014 election.[31] [32] Kaieda regained his seat in this election. Yamada was able to retain her Diet seat through the LDP list for the Tokyo PR block.[33]
data-sort-value="Ochi, Takao"Takao OchiTokyo-6th2012data-sort-value="Ochiai, Takayuki"Takayuki OchiaiVice Minister of the Cabinet Office in the Second and Third Abe Cabinet. Ochi was able to hold on to his Diet seat through the LDP list for the Tokyo PR block.[34]
data-sort-value="Tsuchiya, Masatada"Masatada TsuchiyaTokyo-18th2012data-sort-value="Kan, Naoto"Naoto KanFormer mayor of Musashino. Tsuchiya defeated former PM Kan in the 2014 election. Kan was able to return to the parliament through the Tokyo PR block and was the very last (475th) MP elected that night. He regained his seat in the election. Conversely, Tsuchiya wasn't returned to the Diet as he was not in the LDP list for the Tokyo PR block.[35]
data-sort-value="Ueda, Isamu"Isamu UedaKanagawa-6th2000 (block)
2003 (district)
data-sort-value="Aoyagi, Youichirou"Yōichirō AoyagiDeputy Secretary General of the Komeito party and Vice Finance Minister in the Second and Third Koizumi Cabinet[36]
data-sort-value="Wakasa, Masaru"Masaru WakasaTokyo-10th2014 (block)
2016 (district)
data-sort-value="Suzuki, Hayato"Hayato SuzukiA founding member of Kibō no Tō and one of the closest allies of Yuriko Koike. He was in the Kibō list for the Tokyo PR block, but was not able to hold on to his Diet seat due to receiving inadequate votes.[37] [38]
data-sort-value="Mabuchi, Sumio"Sumio MabuchiNara-1st2003data-sort-value="Kobayashi, Shigeki"Shigeki KobayashiMinister of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism in the Kan cabinet and a candidate for the 2012 DPJ leadership election. Mabuchi has the highest ratio of margin of defeat (97.27%) among all defeated candidates in the election.[39]
(formerly LDP)data-sort-value="Asao, Keiichirou"Keiichirō AsaoKanagawa-4th2009data-sort-value="Waseda, Yuki"Yuki WasedaFormer chairman of the defunct Your Party. He contested as an independent as he wasn't selected by the LDP in the snap election.[40]
data-sort-value="Toyota, Mayuko"Mayuko ToyotaSaitama-4th2012data-sort-value="Hosaka, Yasushi"Yasushi HosakaToyota resigned from the LDP due to a high-profile bullying scandal in June 2017.[41] At the time of the election, she was under investigation for assaulting her former aide. She contested as an independent as she wasn't selected by the LDP in the snap election.[42]

Aftermath

+ Results of the Prime Minister election
width=40px rowspan="2" colspan="2"Partywidth=100px rowspan="2"Candidatewidth=50px rowspan="1" colspan="2"Votes
width=25pxRepwidth=25pxCou
312 151
60 9
51 3
16 48
12 14
11 11
1 0
1 0
0 2
Invalid/blank vote 1 1
Did not vote 0 3
Total 465 242

Reactions and analysis

The success of the CDP in surpassing the Kibō no Tō in the number of seats and becoming the official opposition party was surprising. It presented a potential challenge for the ruling coalition to pass the constitutional amendment of Article 9, which was one of the main issues of the 2017 general election that was supported by Kibō no Tō leader Koike but opposed by the pacifist coalition.[43] With a supermajority in both the upper and the lower house, the ruling coalition was expected to pass other legislation without much resistance.[44] In a post-election conference, Prime Minister Shinzō Abe was optimistic about moving forward, stating that the victory was the first time the LDP have "won three consecutive victories" under the same party leader.[45] The landslide victory achieved by the LDP campaign has been observed as not completely related to the popularity of Shinzo Abe, as the victory was also significantly influenced by the disconnect between the oppositions, notably the failure of Koike and the pacifist coalition to unite over many election issues.[46]

Nevertheless, the CDP finishing second led to Kibō no Tō dissolving in 2018 (with Shigefumi Matsuzawa reviving the party in a smaller capacity) and merging into the Democratic Party for the People, which subsequently largely merged into a refounded CDP, with the exception of a splinter group led by Yuichiro Tamaki. Koike became an independent, lightly cooperating with the LDP and her own regional party, Tomin First no Kai.[47]

Investiture vote

A special Diet session was convened on 1 November to elect the next prime minister.[48] Abe was re-elected with 312 and 151 votes in the House of Representatives and House of Councillors respectively.[49] [50] The new cabinet was formed later on the day.

See also

Notes and References

  1. Book: Pekkanen, Robert J. . Japan Decides 2017 . Reed . Steven R. . Scheiner . Ethan . Smith . Daniel M. . 2018 . en . 10.1007/978-3-319-76475-7.
  2. News: Shinzo Abe gains big victory in Japan election. Financial Times. 22 October 2017.
  3. Asano . Masahiko . Patterson . Dennis . 2022 . Risk, institutions, and policy in decisions to join a start-up party: evidence from the 2017 snap election in Japan . Japanese Journal of Political Science . en . 23 . 1 . 34–54 . 10.1017/S1468109921000402 . 1468-1099. 2346/92774 . free .
  4. News: How Japanese PM Shinzo Abe won a sweeping electoral triumph. Financial Times. 22 October 2017.
  5. News: 立憲民主党、野党第1党が確実(衆院選2017). 2017-10-22. Huffington Post.
  6. News: Election turnout likely second-lowest in postwar period, estimate says. 2017-10-23. The Japan Times.
  7. News: Japan Election Vindicates Shinzo Abe as His Party Wins Big. 22 November 2017. Rich. M.. The New York Times. November 27, 2017.
  8. MIC/e-gov legal database: 公職選挙法, chapter 5 (election dates), article 31 (general elections)
  9. News: Japan: Voting Age Lowered from 20 to 18. Sayuri. Umeda. Library of Congress.
  10. News: 民主、衆参同日選も想定 年内に候補者170人擁立めざす. 8 June 2015. Nihon Keizai Shimbun. 6 June 2015.
  11. News: Tokyo Voters' Rebuke Signals Doubt About Shinzo Abe's Future. Rich. Motoko. 2017-07-03. The New York Times. 2017-10-09. en-US. 0362-4331.
  12. Web site: Backstory to Abe's Snap Election – the Secrets of Moritomo, Kake and the "Missing" Japan SDF Activity Logs. Repeta. Lawrence.

    ja:ローレンス・レペタ

    . 2017-10-15. The Asia-Pacific Journal: Japan Focus. 2017-10-17.
  13. News: Shinzo Abe of Japan Calls Early Election, as a Rival Party Forms. Rich. Motoko. 2017-09-25. The New York Times. 2017-10-09. en-US. 0362-4331.
  14. News: Former DP heavyweight Yukio Edano seeks to fill void with new liberal-minded party. 2 October 2017. Japan Times.
  15. News: Why the LDP keeps winning elections in Japan: pragmatism. The Economist. 12 October 2017.
  16. News: 2017 Lower House Election / LDP, Kibo to lock horns over consumption tax rate hike. The Japan News. 2017-10-09. https://web.archive.org/web/20171008153117/http://the-japan-news.com/news/article/0003990833. 2017-10-08. dead. en-US.
  17. News: 2017 Lower House Election / Koike leaves open scenario of forming coalition with LDP. The Japan News. 2017-10-09. https://web.archive.org/web/20171008153133/http://the-japan-news.com/news/article/0003991391. 2017-10-08. dead. en-US.
  18. News: 党派別立候補者数. 日本経済新聞.
  19. News: VOTE 2017: Campaigning to kick off for 3-way Lower House election:The Asahi Shimbun. The Asahi Shimbun. 2017-10-09. en-us. 2017-10-10. https://web.archive.org/web/20171010005559/http://www.asahi.com/ajw/articles/AJ201710090037.html. dead.
  20. News: Japan's 'Nothing'Election: The View From Washington Politics Tokyo Business Today. Tokyo Business Today. 2017-10-19. en-US.
  21. Web site: Democratic Party effectively disbands, throwing support behind Koike's party for Lower House poll . Yoshida . Reiji . 28 September 2017 . . 28 September 2017.
  22. News: VOTE 2017: Koike refuses to name candidate to replace Abe as prime minister:The Asahi Shimbun. The Asahi Shimbun. 2017-10-09. en-us. 2017-10-08. https://web.archive.org/web/20171008044059/http://www.asahi.com/ajw/articles/AJ201710070018.html. dead.
  23. News: Tokyo Gov. Koike's upstart party Kibo no To vows to halt tax hike, debate war-renouncing Article 9. 6 October 2017. Japan Times.
  24. News: Kibo no To and Osaka's Nippon Ishin in cautious collaboration with wide policy overlap. 6 October 2017. Japan Times.
  25. News: VOTE 2017: Edano plans to form new party as liberal force in election. 2 October 2017. Asahi Shimbun. 2 October 2017. 3 October 2017. https://web.archive.org/web/20171003025958/http://www.asahi.com/ajw/articles/AJ201710020024.html. dead.
  26. News: Japan's opposition races to assemble slates as tumult persists. SGA. 4 October 2017. 8 October 2017. https://web.archive.org/web/20171008082202/https://www.asiaventurepedia.com/japans-opposition-races-to-assemble-slates-as-tumult-persists/. 8 October 2017. dead.
  27. Japan Ranks Low in Female Lawmakers. An Election Won't Change That., by MOTOKO RICHOCT. 21, 2017, https://nyti.ms/2gVN79s New York Times
  28. News: 高知2区. 7 November 2017. NHK. ja.
  29. News: 栃木2区. 7 November 2017. NHK. ja.
  30. News: 北海道11区. 7 November 2017. NHK. ja.
  31. News: Kaieda quits as DPJ chief after humiliating ejection from Diet. 21 November 2017. The Japan Times. Mizuho. Aoki. Reiji. Yoshida.
  32. News: 民主・海江田代表、辞任を表明 後継者争い混沌 党分裂の危機. 7 November 2017. Yūkan Fuji. December 15, 2014.
  33. News: 東京1区. 7 November 2017. NHK. ja.
  34. News: 東京6区. 9 November 2017. NHK. ja.
  35. News: 東京18区. 7 November 2017. NHK. ja.
  36. News: 神奈川6区. 7 November 2017. NHK. ja.
  37. News: 東京10区. 7 November 2017. NHK. ja.
  38. News: Sim. Walter. Koike fails miserably, even in her stronghold. 7 November 2017. The Straits Times. October 24, 2017.
  39. News: 奈良1区. 7 November 2017. NHK. ja.
  40. News: 埼玉4区. 7 November 2017. NHK. ja.
  41. News: Female Japanese politician Mayuko Toyota resigns after attacking male aide. 9 November 2017. The Straits Times. June 23, 2017.
  42. News: 埼玉4区. 7 November 2017. NHK. ja.
  43. News: After win, Abe takes cautious tack on revising Constitution. 25 October 2017. Asahi Shimbun. October 24, 2017. 24 October 2017. https://web.archive.org/web/20171024124107/http://www.asahi.com/ajw/articles/AJ201710240031.html. dead.
  44. News: Osborne. Samuel. Yamaguchi. Mari. What does Shinzo Abe's election win mean for Japan?. https://ghostarchive.org/archive/20220501/https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/asia/japan-election-result-shinzo-abe-victory-north-korea-ageing-population-threat-tackle-a8016151.html . 2022-05-01 . subscription . live. 25 October 2017. The Independent. October 24, 2017.
  45. News: Shimada. Gaku. Kagaya. Kazuki. Overconfidence emerges as Abe's biggest risk after opposition sink. 25 October 2017. Nikkei Asian Review. October 24, 2017.
  46. News: Japan's Abe Has Pulled Off a Landslide— But He's Not as Popular as You Might Think. 25 October 2017. Bloomberg. October 24, 2017.
  47. Web site: DP, Kibo to merge into new party as early as May 7. Yomiuri Shimbun. Jiji Press. 25 April 2018. 26 April 2018. Jiji Press. https://web.archive.org/web/20180426144513/http://the-japan-news.com/news/article/0004395382. 26 April 2018. dead.
  48. News: Diet to convene session Wednesday to re-elect Abe as PM. 1 November 2017. Japan Times. October 26, 2017.
  49. http://www.shugiin.go.jp/internet/itdb_kaigiroku.nsf/html/kaigiroku/000119520171101001.htm 第195回国会 本会議 第1号(平成29年11月1日(水曜日)) (in Japanese)
  50. http://www.sangiin.go.jp/japanese/joho1/kousei/vote/195/195-1101-v001.pdf 第195回国会 (2017年11月1日) 投票結果ー内閣総理大臣の指名 (in Japanese)