Israel and weapons of mass destruction explained

Israel is believed to possess weapons of mass destruction, and to be one of four nuclear-armed countries not recognized as a Nuclear Weapons State by the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT).[1] The US Congress Office of Technology Assessment has recorded Israel as a country generally reported as having undeclared chemical warfare capabilities, and an offensive biological warfare program. Officially, Israel neither confirms nor denies possessing nuclear weapons.

Nuclear weapons

See main article: Nuclear weapons and Israel. It is believed that Israel had possessed an operational nuclear weapons capability by 1967, with the mass production of nuclear warheads occurring immediately after the Six-Day War. Experts estimated the stockpile of Israeli nuclear weapons range from 60 to as many as 400.[2] [3] [4] It is unknown if Israel's reported thermonuclear weapons are in the megaton range.[5] Israel is also reported to possess a wide range of different systems, including neutron bombs, tactical nuclear weapons, and suitcase nukes.[6] Israel is believed to manufacture its nuclear weapons at the Negev Nuclear Research Center.

On 5 November 2023, amid the 2023 Israel-Hamas War, Heritage Minister Amihai Eliyahu stated that the use of atomic weapons in the Israeli invasion of the Gaza Strip could be "one of the possibilities". He was neither a member the security cabinet nor of the war cabinet, and was subsequently suspended from cabinet meetings.[7]

Nuclear weapons delivery

See main article: Nuclear weapons delivery, Nuclear triad and Jericho (missile). Nuclear weapons delivery mechanisms include Jericho 3 missiles, with a range of 4,800 km to 6,500 km (though a 2004 source estimated its range at up to 11,500 km), and which are believed to provide a second-strike option, as well as regional coverage from road mobile Jericho 2 IRBMs. Israel's nuclear-capable ballistic missiles are believed to be buried so far underground that they would survive a nuclear attack.[8] [9] Additionally, Israel is believed to have an offshore nuclear second-strike capability, using submarine-launched nuclear-capable cruise missiles, which can be launched from the Israeli Navy's Dolphin-class submarines.[10] The Israeli Air Force has F-15I and F-16I Sufa fighter aircraft which are capable of delivering tactical and strategic nuclear weapons at long distances using conformal fuel tanks and supported by their aerial refueling fleet of modified Boeing 707s.[11]

In 2006, then Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert appeared to acknowledge that Israel had nuclear weapons when he stated on German TV that Iran was "aspiring to have nuclear weapons as America, France, Israel, Russia".[12] [13] [14] This admission was in contrast to the long-running Israeli government policy of deliberate ambiguity on whether it has nuclear weapons. The policy held that Israel would "not be the first to introduce nuclear weapons in the Middle East."[15] Former International Atomic Energy Agency Director General Mohamed ElBaradei regarded Israel as a state possessing nuclear weapons.[16] Much of what is known about Israel's nuclear program comes from revelations in 1986 by Mordechai Vanunu, a technician at the Negev Nuclear Research Center who served an 18-year prison sentence as a result. Israel has not signed the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) but supports establishment of a Middle East Zone free of weapons of mass destruction.[17]

Chemical weapons

Israel has signed but not ratified the Chemical Weapons Convention (CWC).[18] In 1983 a report by the CIA stated that Israel, after "finding itself surrounded by frontline Arab states with budding CW capabilities, became increasingly conscious of its vulnerability to chemical attack... undertook a program of chemical warfare preparations in both offensive and protective areas... In late 1982 a probable CW nerve agent production facility and a storage facility were identified at the Dimona Sensitive Storage Area in the Negev Desert. Other CW agent production is believed to exist within a well-developed Israeli chemical industry."[19] [20]

There are also speculations that a chemical weapons program might be located at the Israel Institute for Biological Research (IIBR[21]) in Ness Ziona.[22]

190 liters of dimethyl methylphosphonate, a CWC schedule 2 chemical used in the synthesis of sarin nerve gas, was discovered in the cargo of El Al Flight 1862 after it crashed in 1992 en route to Tel Aviv. Israel said the material was non-toxic and was to have been used to test filters that protect against chemical weapons. It had also been clearly listed on the cargo manifest in accordance with international regulations. The shipment was from a U.S. chemical plant to the IIBR under a U.S. Department of Commerce license.[23]

In 1993, the U.S. Congress Office of Technology Assessment WMD proliferation assessment recorded Israel as a country generally reported as having undeclared offensive chemical warfare capabilities.[24] Former US deputy assistant secretary of defense responsible for chemical and biological defense Dr. Bill Richardson said in 1998 "I have no doubt that Israel has worked on both chemical and biological offensive things for a long time... There's no doubt they've had stuff for years."[25]

Biological weapons

Israel is suspected to have developed an offensive biological warfare capability, per the US Congress Office of Technology Assessment. Israel is not a signatory to the Biological Weapons Convention (BWC).[26] It is assumed that the Israel Institute for Biological Research in Ness Ziona develops vaccines and antidotes for chemical and biological warfare.[27] It is generally agreed Israel does not have a stockpile of chemical weapons; it is speculated that Israel retains an active ability to produce and disseminate biological weapons, likely as a result of its extremely complex biodefense program.[28] [29] Israel has taken steps to strengthen its export control regulations on dual-use biotechnologies.[28] Israel has conducted biological warfare previously, in the 1948 operation Cast Thy Bread. [30]

External links

Notes and References

  1. News: July 2, 2006. Background Information, 2005 Review Conference of the Parties to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons. United Nations.
  2. Web site: Israel's Nuclear Weapon Capability: An Overview . May 3, 2015 . dead . https://web.archive.org/web/20150429192508/http://www.wisconsinproject.org/countries/israel/nuke.html . April 29, 2015 .
  3. Web site: Study on a Possible Israeli Strike on Iran's Nuclear Development Facilities . . Abdullah, Senior Associate . Toukan . Anthony H., Arleigh A. Burke Chair in Strategy . Cordesman . April 2, 2015 . April 17, 2009 . https://web.archive.org/web/20090417174702/http://www.csis.org/media/csis/pubs/090316_israelistrikeiran.pdf . dead .
  4. Brower, Kenneth S., “A Propensity for Conflict: Potential Scenarios and Outcomes of War in the Middle East,” Jane's Intelligence Review, Special Report no. 14, (February 1997), 14-15.
  5. Web site: Does Israel Really Have a Thermonuclear Weapon?. Jeffrey. Lewis. March 8, 2024 .
  6. [Hersh, Seymour M.]
  7. https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/far-right-minister-nuking-gaza-is-an-option-population-should-go-to-ireland-or-deserts/
  8. News: Israel Buys 2 Nuclear-Capable Submarines . . Ramit . Plushnick-Masti . May 20, 2010 . August 25, 2006.
  9. Web site: Missile Survey: Ballistic and Cruise Missiles of Foreign Countries . Scribd . dead . https://web.archive.org/web/20080928134704/http://www.scribd.com/doc/6088311/Missile-Survey-Ballistic-and-Cruise-Missiles-of-Foreign-Countries . 2008-09-28.
  10. Israel seeks sixth Dolphin in light of Iranian 'threat' . Alon . Ben-David. October 1, 2009 . Jane's Defence Weekly. November 3, 2009. Alon Ben-David.
  11. Web site: Israel Air Force - Israel. John . Pike . Global security.
  12. News: Israeli PM in nuclear arms hint . . December 12, 2006 . July 30, 2015.
  13. News: In a Slip, Israel's Leader Seems to Confirm Its Nuclear Arsenal . . December 12, 2006 . July 30, 2015.
  14. News: Israeli PM admits to nuclear weapons . . December 12, 2006 . July 30, 2015.
  15. News: Khaled. Dawoud. Redefining the bomb. Al-Ahram Weekly. December 2, 1999. July 2, 2006. dead . https://web.archive.org/web/20060626225235/http://weekly.ahram.org.eg/1999/458/intervw.htm. June 26, 2006.
  16. Web site: Transcript of the Director General's Interview with Al-Ahram News. Mohamed ElBaradei . International Atomic Energy Agency. July 27, 2004. June 3, 2007. Mohamed ElBaradei.
  17. News: 43 nations to seek Middle East free of WMDs . . July 13, 2008 . September 6, 2011.
  18. United Nations Treaty Collection. Convention on the Prohibition of the Development, Production, Stockpiling and Use of Chemical Weapons and on their Destruction . Accessed January 14, 2009.
  19. News: Exclusive: Does Israel Have Chemical Weapons Too? . Matthew M. Aid . Foreign Policy . September 10, 2013 . March 17, 2018.
  20. Web site: 1NIE on Israeli Chemical Weapons. scribd.com.
  21. .
  22. Web site: Israel and Chemical/Biological Weapons: History, Deterrence, and Arms Control. Avner. Cohen. April 27, 2010. dead. https://web.archive.org/web/20090611165900/http://www.bsos.umd.edu/pgsd/people/staffpubs/Avner-CBWart.pdf. June 11, 2009.
  23. News: Israel says El Al crash chemical 'non-toxic'. October 2, 1998. BBC. July 2, 2006 . https://web.archive.org/web/20030818042548/http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/185199.stm . August 18, 2003.
  24. Proliferation of Weapons of Mass Destruction: Assessing the Risks. U.S. Congress Office of Technology Assessment. August 1993. OTA-ISC-559. December 9, 2008.
  25. News: Debunking the "ethno-bomb". Jeff. Stein. December 2, 1998. July 11, 2006. Salon.com. dead. https://web.archive.org/web/20060629051243/http://salon.com/news/1998/12/02news.html. June 29, 2006.
  26. Web site: Membership of the Biological Weapons Convention. United Nations Office At Geneva. March 12, 2011.
  27. Web site: Nes Ziyyona. February 11, 2007. April 28, 2005. GlobalSecurity.org. Israel is believed to have the capacity to produce chemical warfare agents, and probably has stocks of bombs, rockets, and artillery shells. Public reports that a mustard and nerve gas production facility was established in 1982 in the Dimona restricted area are apparently erroneous. Israel is also probably poised to rapidly produce biological weapons, though there are no public reports of currently active production effort or associated locations.…Israel's primary chemical and biological warfare facility is at Nes Ziyyona [Noss Ziona], near Tel Aviv. The Israeli Institute for Bio-Technology is believed to be the home of both offensive and defensive research..
  28. Web site: Arms Control and Proliferation Profile: Israel Arms Control Association. 2021-09-03. www.armscontrol.org. en.
  29. Web site: Israel and WMD: Incentives and Capabilities. February 11, 2007. Normark. Magnus. Anders Lindblad . Anders Norqvist . Björn Sandström . Louise Waldenström . December 2005. FOI. 38. https://web.archive.org/web/20070208203912/http://www.foi.se/upload/pdf/israel-and-wmd-1734.pdf. February 8, 2007. dead. Israel does not stockpile or produce BW in large-scale today. However, we assess that Israel has a breakout capability for biological weapons and also CW, i.e. the knowledge needed to implement theoretical knowledge into the practical management of production and deployment of CBW. The knowledge base would be the one that was built during the 1950s and 1960s where today’s advanced research can be used to upgrade potential BW and CW agents and their behaviour in the environment. We have not found any conclusive evidence that show that Israel’s offensive programs still remain active today..
  30. News: 'Place the Material in the Wells': Docs Point to Israeli Army's 1948 Biological Warfare . Haaretz .