2021 Iranian presidential election explained

Country:Iran
Type:presidential
Previous Election:2017 Iranian presidential election
Previous Year:2017
Next Election:2024 Iranian presidential election
Next Year:2024
Election Date:18 June 2021
Turnout:48.48% (24.85pp)
Image1:Raisi in 2021-02 (cropped).jpg
Nominee1:Ebrahim Raisi
Party1:Combatant Clergy Association
Alliance1:Principlists
Popular Vote1:18,021,945
Percentage1:72.35%
Nominee2:Mohsen Rezaee
Party2:Resistance Front of Islamic Iran
Alliance2:Principlists
Popular Vote2:3,440,835
Percentage2:13.81%
Image3:Abdolnaser Hemmati 14000304000066637575096296073542 (cropped).jpg
Nominee3:Abdolnaser Hemmati
Party3:Executives of Construction Party
Alliance3:Reformists
Popular Vote3:2,443,387
Percentage3:9.81%
President
Before Election:Hassan Rouhani
Before Party:Moderation and Development Party
After Election:Ebrahim Raisi
After Party:Combatant Clergy Association

Presidential elections were held in Iran on 18 June 2021, the thirteenth since the establishment of the Islamic Republic in 1979. Ebrahim Raisi, the then Chief Justice of Iran, was declared the winner in a highly controversial election. The election began with the mass disqualification of popular candidates by the Guardian Council, and broke records of the lowest turnout in Iranian electoral history (around 49%),[1] as well as had the highest share of protest blank, invalid and lost votes (around 13%)[2] despite a declaration by the Supreme Leader of Iran, Ali Khamenei, considering protest voting religiously forbidden (haraam) as it would "weaken the regime."[3] Reporters Without Borders reported 42 cases of journalists being summoned or threatened for writing about candidates,[4] and the chief of the police threatened people who discouraged others to vote.[5]

The Guardian Council announced the approval of seven candidates after the wide disqualification of prominent candidates, including Ali Larijani, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad (the former president of Iran), and Eshaq Jahangiri (the Incumbent first Vice President), among others,[6] which provoked many activists and candidates to call for boycotting the election,[7] including Ahmadinejad, who said that he would neither participate nor recognize the election. Hassan Rouhani, the incumbent Iranian president, could not run for re-election under the constitution of Iran as he had already served his maximum two consecutive terms.

Considered a "show election" to elect the handpicked candidate of the Iranian Supreme Leader, the elections were the first in Iranian history in which the reported number of invalid ballots, 3.84 million, outnumbered every non-winning candidate; the second-placed Mohsen Rezaee received 3.44 million votes.[8] The elections were widely described as "neither free nor fair", a "sham", and a "selection" by different international human rights organizations, such as Human Rights Watch[9] and the Center for Human Rights in Iran,[10] and others called for an investigation into Raisi's role as an overseer in the 1988 executions of Iranian political prisoners.[11] [9]

Electoral system

See also: Elections in Iran. The President of Iran is elected for a four-year term by universal adult suffrage with a minimum voting age of 18. The presidential term is renewable once in a consecutive manner. It is the country's highest directly elected official, the chief of the executive branch, and the second most important position after the Supreme Leader. Under Iran's political system, the Supreme Leader holds much more power than the President.[12]

According to Islamic Republic of Iran's constitution, any Iranian citizen who believes in Shia Islam, loyal to the Constitution, the ideology of Guardianship of the Islamic Jurist and the Islamic Republic can participate in election as a presidential candidate. An institution called the Election Monitoring Agency (EMA), managed by the Guardian Council vets registered candidates and selects a handful to run in the election.[13]

The Guardian Council does not publicly announce the reason for rejections of particular candidates, although those reasons are privately explained to each candidate. Women are not constitutionally restricted from running; however, all women who registered as candidates have been excluded from standing for election by the Guardian Council.[14] [15] "We have not rejected any woman due to being a woman", the spokesman of the Guardian Council said. He clarified that there is no obstacle for women's registration in the elections.[16]

Those approved by the Guardian Council are put to a public vote on the weekend. The winner is the candidate who receive a majority (50% plus one) votes. If no candidate receives enough votes another election is held between the two candidates with the most votes the following Friday.[17] Iranians who voted during the election receive a stamp that indicate so on their birth certificates.[18]

According to the constitution, once the result is known, the Supreme Leader must sign the decree of the elected president, and if he refuses to sign, the elected president will not assume the presidency. So far, Supreme Leaders have always signed the decree of the elected president.[19] [20] After that, the elected president must recite and sign an oath in a session of the Islamic Consultative Assembly, in the presence of the members of the Guardian Council and the head of the Supreme Court. In the Oath, the elected president must swear that he will guard the official religion (Islam), protect the Constitution and the Islamic Republic, and that he will dedicate himself to the service of the nation, its people, and its religion (among other things).

Offline electronic voting system

Having a national identification number is required for voting.[21] [22] The identification number system was developed and programmed by the Telecommunication Company of Iran.[23] 33,000 virtual ballot boxes are used.[24]

Simultaneous elections

The election was held concurrently with city and village council elections.[25] [26] [27] In some electoral districts and provinces midterm elections of the Islamic Consultative Assembly and the Assembly of Experts were also held.[28] [29]

Cost of the election

1170 billion toman (approximately US$277.4 million)[30] was allocated in the national budget, of which 160 billion was allocated to the Guardian Council for oversight and supervision, and the rest (1010 billion) was for the Ministry of Interior, which actually runs the election.[31]

Polling places abroad

234 polling places were set up in 133 countries so that Iranians abroad could vote. 3.5 million members of the Iranian diaspora were eligible to vote in the election.[32] [33] The Canadian government did not allow Iran to operate polling places in Canada.[34]

Candidates

The Guardian Council is responsible for approving candidates who have registered to run. The Guardian Council disqualified over 600 applicants, including all the women who had registered, ultimately approving seven candidates, three of whom withdrew days before the election.[35]

Approved

The Interior Ministry released the official list of candidates qualified by the Guardian Council on 25 May 2021. The following seven candidates were approved by the council.

Withdrew

Several candidates withdrew from the election, with three withdrawing after they had been approved by the Guardian Council. All the candidates who withdrew endorsed a candidate.

During election

Before election

Rejected

More than 600 applicants were rejected, including:

Announced but not registered

Election issues

Effect of COVID-19

The government had administered 4 million COVID-19 vaccine doses, which is about 2.7% of the country's population (82.91 million).[66] Incumbent President Rouhani predicted that the virus breakout could affect voter turnout.[67] [68] The government has limited the maximum number of people allowed to gather at polling places.[69]

The Election Office vaccinated staff by obtaining vaccines meant for old people.[70] Election staff are tested for COVID-19 with PCR tests.[71]

Raisi held a rally despite the pandemic according to the Associated Press.[72] The hospitals were readied for a 5th wave of the pandemic.[73] [74] [75] [76] [77]

Fatwa

The Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei[78] [79] [80] and the Friday Prayers Imam of Isfahan had declared that blank votes are considered haram, and not voting would be considered a major sin.[81] [82] [83]

TV debates

Format

The moderator asked every candidate different random questions, regarding economics, social and political, and people's issues. Additionally, 3 TV chats were televised, hosting 7 candidates.[84] [85] [86] [87] [88] [89]

The First Debate

Two moderate candidates (Hemmati and Mehralizade) faced five hardliner candidates.

Hemmati opened his speech by criticizing the fact that women and minorities were refused the right to run in the election, described the four hardliners besides Raisi as "covering" candidates, indicating that they had only participated to be defenders of Raisi in the debate and asked them to swear that they would not drop out of the election in favour of Raisi. He accused Reza'i of sabotaging the incumbent moderate government of Iran's effort to join the anti-money-laundering organization FATF and asked him whether it would be sane to solve the economic problems of Iran by taking American hostages (as Reza'i had indicated in a previous controversial interview). He asked Ra'isi, the Chief Justice of Iran and almost certain next president of Iran, to be given a promise (or a "safe conduct") not to be prosecuted after the conclusion of the elections.

Mehralizade, another moderate candidate, criticized Ra'isi for not having pursued an academic education besides having completed the six grades of school, and said that despite the respect he has for Ra'isi's Islamic Seminary Diploma, he does not believe that that is enough education for a person who wants to handle a country, and said that Ra'isi suffers from a "restless-position syndrome" (a humorous allusion to the "restless-hand syndrome" which is the Persian term for the Alien Hand Syndrome) for pursuing one high position after another. In response to this claim, Raisi asked Mehralizade "why are you jealous of my popularity among the people?".

Reza'i and Zakani, both hardliner candidates, accused Hemmati, the then Governor of the Iranian Central Bank, of having issued fiat money, and Zakani, in response to Hemmati's criticism of widespread rejection of candidates not aligned enough with the want of the Guardian Council, said "If those candidates had been approved, you would not be here".[90]

Opinion polls

Hypothetical polls

Hypothetical polls were done before the Guardian Council had announced who is approved to run. Therefore, these polls include several candidates (like Ahmadinejad) who were disqualified and are therefore ineligible to run.

Fieldwork datePoll sourceSample
size		Margin of errorOther
RaisiAhmadinejadGhalibafZarifKhatamiJaliliMohammadLarijaniAref
22–28 October 2020Stasis[91] 1,136N/A37%10%N/AN/A3%N/A2%2%17%, 29%
February 2021Iran Poll[92] ~2,000 3.1%15%28%6%5%4%1%1%N/AN/A33%

Polls

These polls include all seven candidates who were approved by the Guardian Council. Note that Jalili, Mehralizadeh, and Zakani all withdrew after this poll was conducted.

ISPA polls

See main article: Iranian Students Polling Agency. The ISPA (Iranian Students Polling Agency) is considered as one of the most reliable pollsters in Iran. They correctly predicted the results of the 2017 election.[94] [95] ISPA polls projected that Ebrahim Raisi was heavily favored to win the election.[96]

WaveFieldwork dateSample SizeError marginMethod
4April 2021[97] 1,569 N/APhone call
58–10 May 2021[98] 1,553 N/APhone call
726–27 May 2021[99] N/AN/APhone call
830 May – 1 June 2021[100] 5,159 N/AFace-to-face Inquiry
109–10 June[101] 5,121N/AFace-to-face Inquiry
1114–15 June[102] 5,094N/AFace-to-face Inquiry
1215–16 June[103] 6,582N/AFace-to-face Inquiry

Results

The declared results showed a total of 28,750,736 people cast votes (48.48% of the eligible population), including 18 million votes for the victor of the election, Ebrahim Raisi. Mohsen Rezai was the candidate receiving the most votes as a non-winner with 13.81% of the valid votes, although his votes were lower than the number of blank, invalid, or lost votes.

The results of the election broke many national records. The lowest turnout in an Iranian election in four decades (since the 1979 Iranian Revolution) was recorded,[104] the largest share of non-valid and non-received issued voted by far were recorded (13.1% of the votes were counted as invalid), the second being 2005's 4.2%,[105] [2] the first time in Iranian history that no non-winner was able to break the invalid voter threshold, and the first time only a minority of the electoral roll engaged in the election.[106] In the capital city, Tehran, only around a fourth of the eligible population voted, including the cast invalid votes.[107] In some other major cities, such as Arak, Hamadan, Karaj,[108] and Ahvaz,[109] the largest number of the concurrent municipal elections votes were the invalid ones.

The exact number of votes each candidate received has not been yet released for every single Iranian province, though turnout for each is made public. The highest provincial turnout has gone to South Khorasan and the lowest one to Tehran, with around 74% and 34% respectively, and this figure does include the unusually large number of invalid/blank voters as voters.[110] In some provinces with historically high turnouts, the figures underwent a sharp drop in this election, making voters in some large provinces into a minority (made bold here), while others lost big amounts of vote while still keeping the majority. Some examples are Tehran (66% to 34%), Alborz (80% to 41%), Yazd (93% to 58%), Qazvin (83% to 52%), Mazandaran (91% to 60%), and Isfahan (74% to 43.8%). Twelve provinces in total recorded a turnout below 50%, a figure which went to no province in the previous election.[111]

Because whether an adult has participated in the previous elections or not is recorded in his/her identity card and subsequently considered in job interviews and some other situations, a large number of people have historically chosen to boycott the election and get a stamp in the ID at the same time, by voting a protest vote (voting blank or jokingly voting for non-existent/comical characters or even carrying the ballot with them out of the polling station), contributing to a very large share of votes being invalid/non-received, a phenomenon that is much more pronounced in this election (around thirteen percent of the votes being invalid).[2]

For this reason, the ratio of received valid votes to all issued ballots is occasionally calculated by some sources and compared together and/or to that of the previous elections. For example, Alborz province, which had a turnout figure close to 80% in the 2017 Iranian presidential election but fell to 41% in 2021, had only 48.79% of its votes being valid,[112] which could mean that only around 20% of the eligible population of the province have voted, of which only a minority have voted for Raisi.

Upon being declared the winner, Raisi was congratulated by three of his four competitors on 19 June,[113] and president Rouhani paid a congratulatory visit to him that evening.

Jamal Arf, the head of the Election Office, announced updated details of the results after gathering details of votes from 91 ballot boxes and departments monitoring the elections across the country. Per the updated results, Raisi received more than 18 million votes. Meanwhile, 100,231 invalid votes that were cast were not collected and thus kept out of the count. While 28,989,529 turned up for the election, only 28,750,736 cast their vote.[114]

By province

Iranian provinces and capitals turnout, 2021 and 2017[115]
Name2021 Provincial2017 ProvincialProvincial SwingProvince Capital2021 Capital Turnout
Alborz41.3579.1 37.75Karaj31.5
Ardabil54.9374 19.07Ardabil46.2
Azerbaijan, East44.2569.63 25.38Tabriz30
Azerbaijan, West46.7868.74 21.96Urmia44.1
Bushehr58.7371.29 12.56Bushehr48.3
Chahar Mahaal and Bakhtiari54.3877.82 23.44Shahrekord39.9
Fars48.7371.64 22.91Shiraz33.3
Gilan57.3582.84 25.49Rasht33.2
Golestan6178.47 17.47Gorgan45.1
Hamadan46.4873.8 27.32Hamadan39.8
Hormozgān58.778.64 19.94Bandar Abbas51
Ilam63.1180.27 17.16Ilam47.9
Isfahan43.8173.99 30.18Isfahan34.6
Kerman60.5874.18 13.6Kerman50.4
Kermanshah46.0472.98 26.94Kermanshah34.9
Khorasan, North63.9780.72 16.75Bojnourd56.5
Khorasan, Razavi55.0977.4 22.31Mashhad45.7
Khorasan, South74.3885.22 10.84Birjand60.1
Khuzestan49.9870 20.02Ahvaz36.2
Kohgiluyeh and Boyer-Ahmad62.5971.22 8.63Yasuj34.5
Kurdistan37.3758.72 21.35Sanandaj26.6
Lorestan48.1660.15 11.99Khorramabad43.6
Markazi48.9475.58 26.64Arak38.4
Mazandaran60.7590.95 30.2Sari56
Qazvin52.382.9 30.6Qazvin45.4
Qom53.1778.1 24.93Qom53.2
Semnan54.2480.48 26.24Semnan39.5
Sistan and Baluchestan62.7575.4 12.65Zahedan49.2
Tehran34.3966.2 31.81Tehran24.1
Yazd58.4593.4 34.95Yazd43.6
Zanjan 53.6575.92 22.27Zanjan44.4
Iran48.4473.33 24.89Tehran24.1

Reactions

Pre-election

Post-election

Internal

Sovereign states and international organizations

Non-state actors

Notes and References

  1. Web site: 2021-06-19. Khamenei protege wins landslide in Iran vote amid low turnout. live. https://web.archive.org/web/20210621095930/https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/irans-sole-moderate-presidential-candidate-congratulates-raisi-his-victory-state-2021-06-19/. 21 June 2021. 2021-06-19. Reuters.
  2. Web site: 2021-06-23. افزایش بی‌سابقه "آرای باطله" در انتخابات ایران به چه معناست؟. 2021-07-27. Euronews. fa-IR.
  3. Web site: لندن. کیهان. 2021-06-29. وقتی علی خامنه‌ای خود را نقض می‌کند؛ "آرای باطله" و "سفید" که "حرام" بود به سود نظام مصادره شد!. June 30, 2021. KayhanLondon کیهان لندن. fa-IR.
  4. Web site: 11 June 2021. Iran is stepping up pressure on journalists, including foreign journalists, in run-up to election. live. https://web.archive.org/web/20210611150234/https://rsf.org/en/news/iran-stepping-pressure-journalists-including-foreign-journalists-run-election. 11 June 2021. 15 June 2021. RSF. en.
  5. Web site: فرمانده ناجا دعوت‌کنندگان به تحریم انتخابات را تهدید کرد . live. https://web.archive.org/web/20210602225257/https://www.dw.com/fa-ir/%D9%81%D8%B1%D9%85%D8%A7%D9%86%D8%AF%D9%87-%D9%86%D8%A7%D8%AC%D8%A7-%D8%AF%D8%B9%D9%88%D8%AA%DA%A9%D9%86%D9%86%D8%AF%DA%AF%D8%A7%D9%86-%D8%A8%D9%87-%D8%AA%D8%AD%D8%B1%DB%8C%D9%85-%D8%A7%D9%86%D8%AA%D8%AE%D8%A7%D8%A8%D8%A7%D8%AA-%D8%B1%D8%A7-%D8%AA%D9%87%D8%AF%DB%8C%D8%AF-%DA%A9%D8%B1%D8%AF/a-57709229. 2 June 2021. 15 June 2021. DW.COM. fa-IR.
  6. Web site: 2021-05-25. اسامی ۷ نامزد نهایی انتخابات ۱۴۰۰ منتشر شد. 2021-07-06. euronews. fa.
  7. News: Disgruntled Iranians Say 'No Way,' Call For Boycott Of June Presidential Election. 16 June 2021. RadioFreeEurope/RadioLiberty. en. 10 June 2021. https://web.archive.org/web/20210610143952/https://www.rferl.org/a/iran-presidential-election-boycott-poverty-corruption-repression/31268141.html. live. Esfandiari . Golnaz .
  8. Web site: انتخابات۱۴۰۰؛ ستاد انتخابات ایران: آرای ابراهیم رئیسی به بیش از 18 میلیون رای رسید. 2021-07-27. Anadolu Agency. fa-IR.
  9. Web site: 2021-06-19. Iran: Overseer of Mass Executions Elected President. June 30, 2021. Human Rights Watch. en.
  10. Web site: 2021-06-19. Iran Election: Heightened Vigilance Needed as Major Rights Violator Takes Power. June 30, 2021. Center for Human Rights in Iran.
  11. Web site: 2021-06-29. EXCLUSIVE U.N. expert backs probe into Iran's 1988 killings, Raisi's role. June 30, 2021. Reuters.
  12. Web site: Ebrahim Raisi, ultra-conservative judiciary chief, wins Iran's presidential vote amid historically low turnout. CNN. 19 June 2021 . 19 June 2021. 21 June 2021. https://web.archive.org/web/20210621094529/https://www.cnn.com/2021/06/19/middleeast/ebrahim-raisi-iran-election-intl-hnk/index.html. live.
  13. Web site: Constitution of the Islamic Republic of Iran. Iranian provisional government of Mehdi Bazargan. Wikisource. 20 June 2021. 5 March 2021. https://web.archive.org/web/20210305102724/https://en.wikisource.org/wiki/Constitution_of_the_Islamic_Republic_of_Iran. live.
  14. Web site: 10 October 2020. ثبت نام زنان در انتخابات ریاست جمهوری بلامانع است/ نظر فقها هیچ تغییری نکرده است. 14 May 2021. ایسنا. fa. 15 May 2021. https://web.archive.org/web/20210515112608/https://www.isna.ir/news/99071913710/%D8%AB%D8%A8%D8%AA-%D9%86%D8%A7%D9%85-%D8%B2%D9%86%D8%A7%D9%86-%D8%AF%D8%B1-%D8%A7%D9%86%D8%AA%D8%AE%D8%A7%D8%A8%D8%A7%D8%AA-%D8%B1%DB%8C%D8%A7%D8%B3%D8%AA-%D8%AC%D9%85%D9%87%D9%88%D8%B1%DB%8C-%D8%A8%D9%84%D8%A7%D9%85%D8%A7%D9%86%D8%B9-%D8%A7%D8%B3%D8%AA-%D9%86%D8%B8%D8%B1-%D9%81%D9%82%D9%87%D8%A7-%D9%87%DB%8C%DA%86. live.
  15. News: Karimov. F. 8 May 2013. First female candidate registered for Iranian presidential elections. Trend. dead. 18 June 2013. https://web.archive.org/web/20130607174407/http://en.trend.az/regions/iran/2148306.html. 7 June 2013.
  16. News: 17 May 2013. Iran's ban on female presidential candidates contradicts Constitution. Amnesty International. 18 June 2013.
  17. Web site: 28 July 1989. Constitution of the Islamic Republic of Iran, 1979 (amended 1989). live. 18 June 2021. Constitute Project. 22 December 2019. https://web.archive.org/web/20191222001540/https://www.constituteproject.org/constitution/Iran_1989.pdf?lang=en.
  18. News: Gambrell. Jon. Hard-line judiciary head wins Iran presidency as turnout low. 19 June 2021. AP. Dubai, United Arab Emirates. 19 June 2021. 21 June 2021. https://web.archive.org/web/20210621100607/https://apnews.com/article/iran-election-ebrahim-raisi-judiciary-turnout-middle-east-4d60554fd608a5dea2c76a303ec352d8. live.
  19. Web site: 3 August 2013. بازخوانی تنفیذ احکام روسای جمهور+عکس و متن احکام. 14 May 2021. ایسنا. fa. 14 May 2021. https://web.archive.org/web/20210514051134/https://www.isna.ir/news/92051206128/%D8%A8%D8%A7%D8%B2%D8%AE%D9%88%D8%A7%D9%86%DB%8C-%D8%AA%D9%86%D9%81%DB%8C%D8%B0-%D8%A7%D8%AD%DA%A9%D8%A7%D9%85-%D8%B1%D9%88%D8%B3%D8%A7%DB%8C-%D8%AC%D9%85%D9%87%D9%88%D8%B1-%D8%B9%DA%A9%D8%B3-%D9%88-%D9%85%D8%AA%D9%86-%D8%A7%D8%AD%DA%A9%D8%A7%D9%85. live.
  20. News: مراسم تنفیذ حکم حسن روحانی برگزار شد. fa. BBC News فارسی. 14 May 2021. 14 May 2021. https://web.archive.org/web/20210514052647/https://www.bbc.com/persian/world-40811127. live.
  21. Web site: انتخابات تمام الکترونیک شورا‌ها در ۲۴ مرکز استان و ۳۳ شهر. 15 June 2021. fa. fa. 16 June 2021. https://web.archive.org/web/20210616065712/https://jamejamonline.ir/fa/news/1320755/%D8%A7%D9%86%D8%AA%D8%AE%D8%A7%D8%A8%D8%A7%D8%AA-%D8%AA%D9%85%D8%A7%D9%85-%D8%A7%D9%84%DA%A9%D8%AA%D8%B1%D9%88%D9%86%DB%8C%DA%A9-%D8%B4%D9%88%D8%B1%D8%A7%E2%80%8C%D9%87%D8%A7-%D8%AF%D8%B1-%DB%B2%DB%B4-%D9%85%D8%B1%DA%A9%D8%B2-%D8%A7%D8%B3%D8%AA%D8%A7%D9%86-%D9%88-%DB%B3%DB%B3-%D8%B4%D9%87%D8%B1. live.
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  115. Data compiled from MOI and BBC.
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  125. ImranKhanPTI . Congratulations to Excellency brother Ibrahim Raisi @raisi_com on his landmark victory in the Islamic Republic of Iran's 13th Presidential elections . 1406216680259395592 . 19 June 2021 .
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  129. Web site: Шавкат Мирзиёев Иброҳим Раисийни Эрон президенти этиб сайлангани билан табриклади. Kun.uz. uz. 20 June 2021.
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  131. Web site: 2021-06-20. Iran summons British envoy over alleged attacks on expatriate voters. 2021-06-21. South China Morning Post. en.
  132. Web site: US Says Iranians Were Denied 'A Free And Fair' Election. 20 June 2021. Iran International.
  133. Web site: Hezbollah's Nasrallah welcomes win by Iran's Raisi: 'A shield against Israel'. Times of Israel. en. 20 June 2021.

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