2016 Iranian legislative election explained

Election Name:2016 Iranian legislative election
Country:Iran
Type:parliamentary
Previous Election:2012 Iranian legislative election
Previous Year:2012
Next Election:2020 Iranian legislative election
Elected Members:List of MPs elected in the Iranian legislative election, 2016
Next Year:2020
Turnout:61.64% (first round)[1]
59% (second round)[2]
Seats For Election:All 290 seats to the Islamic Consultative Assembly
146 seats are needed for a majority
Election Date:26 February and 29 April 2016
Ongoing:no
Colour1:3cb8c2
Leader1:Mohammad Reza Aref
Leader Since1:2016
Alliance1:List of Hope
Leaders Seat1:Tehran, Rey, Shemiranat and Eslamshahr
Seats1:121[3]
Percentage1:41.72%
Colour2:ffd700
Leader2:Gholam-Ali Haddad-Adel
Leader Since2:2016
Alliance2:Principlists Grand Coalition
Leaders Seat2:Tehran, Rey, Shemiranat and Eslamshahr
(defeated)
Seats2:83
Percentage2:28.62%
Colour3:4b347c
Leader3:Ali Motahari
Leader Since3:2012
Alliance3:People's Voice Coalition
Leaders Seat3:Tehran, Rey, Shemiranat and Eslamshahr
Seats3:11
Percentage3:3.79%
Last Election3:1
Seat Change3: 10
Map Size:300px
Speaker
Before Election:Ali Larijani
After Election:Ali Larijani
Before Party:UFP
After Party:List of Hope

Parliamentary elections were held in Iran on 26 February 2016 to elect members of the Islamic Consultative Assembly for all seats in the 10th parliament in the Islamic Republic era and the 34th since the Persian Constitutional Revolution. A second round was held on 29 April 2016 for some constituencies where candidates failed to obtain the required minimum 25 percent of votes cast. The elected MPs served from 28 May 2016 to 27 May 2020.

The election was held as part of a general election which also elected members of the Assembly of Experts.[4] This election was the first time that both bodies were elected simultaneously.

There were 54,915,024 registered voters (in Iran, the voting age is 18). More than 12,000 people filed to run for office.[5] 5,200 candidates, mostly Reformists,[5] were rejected by the Guardian Council and 612 individuals withdrew.

Electoral system

See main article: Elections in Iran. The 290-seat Islamic Consultative Assembly has 285 directly elected members and five seats reserved for the Zoroastrians, Jews, Assyrian and Chaldean Christians and Armenians (one for Armenians in the north of Iran and one for Armenians in the south).

The 285 directly elected seats are elected from 196 constituencies, which are a mix of single and multi-member. In single-member constituencies the leading candidates must receive at least one-fourth of the votes in the first round. If no candidate passes this threshold, a second round is held with the two highest-vote candidates. In multi-member constituencies, voters cast as many votes as there are seats available; candidates must receive votes from at least one-fourth of the voters to be elected; if not all the seats are filled in the first round of voting, a second round is held with twice the number of candidates as there are seats to be filled (or all the original candidates if there are fewer than double the number of seats).[6]

Voters must be Iranian citizens aged 18 or over, and shall not have been declared insane.

Qualifications

According to Iranian law, in order to qualify as a candidate one must:[6]

A candidate will be disqualified if he/she is found to be mentally impaired, actively supporting the Shah or supporting political parties and organizations deemed illegal or been charged with anti-government activity, converted to another faith or has otherwise renounced the Islamic faith, have been found guilty of corruption, treason, fraud, bribery, is an addict or trafficker or have been found guilty of violating Sharia law.[6] Also, candidates must be literate; candidates cannot have played a role in the pre-1979 government, be large landowners, drug addicts or have convictions relating to actions against the state or apostasy. Government ministers, members of the Guardian Council and High Judicial Council are banned from running for office, as is the Head of the Administrative Court of Justice, the Head of General Inspection, some civil servants and religious leaders and any member of the armed forces.[6]

Campaigns and voting

See also: 2012 Iranian legislative election. The conservative camp also known as principlists, consisting of various groups, held the majority of the parliament. The camp spent months bringing together their various wings and formed the "Principlists Grand Coalition", headed by former speaker of the parliament Gholam-Ali Haddad-Adel. The coalition included traditional conservative organizations most notably the Combatant Clergy Association,[7] conservatives close to ex-president Ahmadinejad- some of whom worked under the name of YEKTA Front[7] and hardline conservatives largely opposed to the government's policies, like the Stability Front. Campaigning on the "government's failure to deliver on promises of economic benefits from the nuclear deal, Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, and the lifting of sanctions"; they emphasised their economic backgrounds. On foreign policy, they were against "allowing American influence to permeate Iranian society and economy".[8]

The incumbent speaker Ali Larijani, declined to join the bloc because "they have not provided the necessary mechanisms for the creation of unity" and said he will run independently.[8]

The reformists and moderates, centrist allies of President Rouhani, made the "Alliance of Reformists and Government Supporters" or as the reformists named it, the "Pervasive Coalition of Reformists: The Second Step", a name suggesting a sequel to the first step, 2013 presidential election victory.[8] The coalition was headed by Mohammad Reza Aref and included pro-government moderate conservatives who were on the Followers of Wilayat fraction of Ali Larijani's companions,[7] and aimed to prevent the hardliners from entering the parliament.[9] Larijani himself was also backed by the list.[7] Mohammad Khatami, who renamed the coalition to the "List of Hope" and Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani endorsed the list, alongside Hassan Rouhani who tacitly supported them by sending text message to every cell phone encouraging citizens to "build the future of the country with plenty of hope".[8] The moderates faced considerable challenges in the Guardian Council's vetting process and many of their lead figures were disqualified.[10]

Ali Motahari, who was on the List of Hope, decided to issue another list called "People's Voice" which was mostly made up of moderate conservatives.[8]

Among opposition parties, the National Front, Nation Party and Pan-Iranist Party boycotted the elections.[11] The Freedom Movement of Iran called on voters to cast their ballots and backed reformists.[12]

Ali Khamenei, Supreme leader of Iran, voted on the beginning of election day. He had no comment on the result of the election but asked people for high turnout in the coming election.[13]

Opinion polls

According to a poll conducted on 18 February 2016 with a ±4% margin of sampling error voters favor supporters of Hassan Rouhani among other politicians:

Only 30% of the voters are satisfied with their incumbent representative in the Parliament, with 28% satisfied with the overall performance of the 9th term of Majlis (2012–2016) while 43% are unsatisfied. With the rise of Hassan Rouhani's presidential approval ratings from 54% in August/September 2015 to 67% in December 2015/January 2016, more than 40% undecided voters and some 25% approval of Reformists and Moderates –that are allied under the name of Pervasive Coalition of Reformists– there is a chance of swing towards them.[17]

MPs elected

See main article: List of MPs elected in the Iranian legislative election, 2016.

Results

See also: Iranian legislative election, 2016 (Tehran, Rey, Shemiranat and Eslamshahr). The results indicate that the results would make a hung parliament with reformists having a plurality. Out of 54,915,024 eligible voters, 33,847,117 voted, for a turnout of 61.64[18]

The final results are:

AllianceSeats
NameOf total
List of Hope11941.03%data-sort-value=""
Hex:
  1. 8FD8D8
Principlists Grand Coalition8428.96%data-sort-value=""
Hex:
  1. ffd700
People's Voice Coalition103.44%data-sort-value=""
Hex:
  1. 4b347c
Independents
Minor lists:
Front of Prudence and Development
6522.41%data-sort-value=""
Endorsed by both Principlists Grand Coalition and List of Hope31.03%data-sort-value=""
Hex:
  1. 000000
Religious minorities (reserved seats)51.73%data-sort-value=""
Hex:
  1. D3E300
119107584
List of HopePeople's VoiceOthersPrinciplists
Four seats are vacant.

Payam Mohseni categorized the share of seats as follows:

Faction
Theocrats29.7286
Modern Theocrats8.7425
Reformists34.62101
Independents25.1773
Religious minorities1.755
Total100290
Source: Payam Mohseni

See also

Notes and References

  1. Web site: 2016 Parliamentary Election. 29 April 2016.
  2. Web site: اعلام میزان مشارکت مرحله دوم انتخابات . tabnak. 30 April 2016.
  3. Book: Ehteshami, Anoushiravan. Iran: Stuck in Transition. Politics of the Islamic Republic. 2017. Taylor & Francis. The Contemporary Middle East. 102. 9781351985451.
  4. http://www.roozonline.com/english/news3/newsitem/archive/2014/july/14/article/rafsanjani-may-run-for-the-top-position-in-the-leadership-assembly.html Rafsanjani May Run for the Top Position in the Leadership Assembly
  5. News: Elections in Iran: The great candidate cull: Choose any candidate you like—after the mullahs have excluded reformers. 20 February 2016. The Economist. 20 February 2016.
  6. http://www.ipu.org/parline-e/reports/2149_B.htm Electoral system
  7. Web site: The Day Tehran Shook . Farideh Farhi. March 17, 2016 . Middle East Research and Information Project. April 10, 2016.
  8. Web site: Iran's Election Coalitions. Katayoun Kishi. February 24, 2016 . United States Institute of Peace. March 10, 2016.
  9. News: Everything you need to know about this week's elections in Iran. Al-Monitor. 22 February 2016. 1 March 2016. Arash Karami.
  10. Web site: Caitlin Shayda Pendleton, Paul Bucala. Iran's 2016 elections: The process, the players, and the stakes. January 12, 2016. Critical Threats Project. American Enterprise Institute. March 10, 2016. https://web.archive.org/web/20160308034536/http://www.irantracker.org/analysis/pendleton-bucala-irans-2016-elections-process-players-stakes-january-12-2016. March 8, 2016. dead.
  11. Web site: Rohollah Faghihi. چند حزب منتقد جمهوری اسلامی: در انتخابات شرکت نمی‌کنیم. fa. February 25, 2016 . Radio Farda. March 10, 2016.
  12. Web site: Rohollah Faghihi. Hard-liners move to keep Iranian voters at home. February 25, 2016 . Al-Monitor. March 10, 2016.
  13. News: Iran Top Leader Khamenei Praises High Turnout in Elections: Media . Reuters. 28 February 2016 . 1 March 2016 . Parisa Hafezi.
  14. Web site: نتایج تازه ترین نظرسنجی انتخاباتی؛ صدرنشینی طرفداران روحانی- هاشمی. 15 February 2016. Payesh Online. 17 February 2016. fa.
  15. Web site: نتایج نظرسنجی انتخاباتی ۴ نهاد معتبر؛ عارف، حداد و مطهری در صدر/ اصلاح طلبان در انتظار معجزه. 21 February 2016. Khabar Online. 22 February 2016. fa. https://web.archive.org/web/20160223191711/http://www.khabaronline.ir/detail/512756/Politics/election. 23 February 2016. dead. dmy-all.
  16. Web site: طبق آخرین نظرسنجی‌های رسمی اعلام شد؛ پیشتازی لیست اصلاح‌طلبان بر لیست اصولگرایان. 25 February 2016. Entekhab. 25 February 2016. fa.
  17. Web site: تحلیل نظرسنجی آی پز درباره مشارکت 75 درصدی مردم در انتخابات. 25 February 2016. Iran Wire. 25 February 2016. fa.
  18. https://irandataportal.syr.edu/parliamentary-elections/2016-parliamentary-election 2016 Parliamentary Election