2018 Iowa gubernatorial election explained

See also: 2018 United States gubernatorial elections.

Election Name:	2018 Iowa gubernatorial election
Country:	Iowa
Flag Image:	Flag of Iowa (xrmap collection).svg
Type:	presidential
Ongoing:	no
Turnout:	61.15% 8.44pp
Previous Election:	2014 Iowa gubernatorial election
Previous Year:	2014
Next Election:	2022 Iowa gubernatorial election
Next Year:	2022
Election Date:	November 6, 2018
Image1:	File:Kim Reynolds by Gage Skidmore cropped and rotated.jpg
Nominee1:	Kim Reynolds
Party1:	Republican Party (United States)
Running Mate1:	Adam Gregg
Popular Vote1:	667,275
Percentage1:	50.26%
Nominee2:	Fred Hubbell
Party2:	Democratic Party (United States)
Running Mate2:	Rita Hart
Popular Vote2:	630,986
Percentage2:	47.53%
Map Size:	240px
Governor
Before Election:	Kim Reynolds
Before Party:	Republican Party (United States)
After Election:	Kim Reynolds
After Party:	Republican Party (United States)

The 2018 Iowa gubernatorial election took place on November 6, 2018. Incumbent Republican Governor Kim Reynolds ran for election to a full term, facing Democratic businessman Fred Hubbell, Libertarian Jake Porter, and independent candidate Gary Siegwarth.

On Election Day, Reynolds won 50.3% of the vote, a 2.8% margin of victory, and carried 88 of Iowa's 99 counties. She became the first female governor of Iowa elected in her own right. This was the first Iowa gubernatorial election since 1998 in which the winner was of the same party as the incumbent president.

Background

After the 2016 presidential election, President Donald Trump nominated then-Governor Terry Branstad to be the United States Ambassador to China. When Branstad was confirmed by the United States Senate, he resigned as Iowa Governor to assume the ambassadorship on May 24, 2017. Lieutenant Governor Kim Reynolds then became Governor of Iowa.^[1]

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominated

• Kim Reynolds, incumbent Governor of Iowa.^[2]

Withdrew

• Ron Corbett, Mayor of Cedar Rapids^{[3] [4]}
• Steven Ray, Mayor pro tempore of Boone^{[5] [6]}

Declined

• Terry Branstad, United States Ambassador to China and former Governor^{[7] [8] [1]}
• Steve King, U.S. Representative^{[9] [10]}
• Bill Northey, U.S. Under Secretary of Agriculture for Farm and Foreign Agricultural Services and former Secretary of Agriculture of Iowa^[11]
• Bob Vander Plaats, president and CEO of The Family Leader, candidate for Governor of Iowa in 2002, 2006 and 2010 and nominee for Lieutenant Governor of Iowa in 2006^[12]

Results

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominated

• Fred Hubbell, businessman^[13]

Eliminated in primary

• Cathy Glasson, president of SEIU Local 199^[14]
• Andy McGuire, former chairwoman of the Iowa Democratic Party and candidate for Lieutenant Governor in 2006^[15]
• John Norris, former chief of staff to Governor Tom Vilsack, former Federal Energy Regulatory Commission member and nominee for IA-04 in 2002^{[16] [17]}
• Ross Wilburn, former mayor of Iowa City^[18]

Withdrew

• Nate Boulton, state senator^[19]
• Rich Leopold, director of the Polk County Conservation Board and former Director of the Iowa Department of Natural Resources^{[20] [21] [22]}
• Mike Matson, Davenport alderman^{[23] [24]}
• Jon Neiderbach, attorney, former member of the Des Moines School Board and nominee for State Auditor in 2014^{[25] [26]}
• Todd Prichard, state representative^{[27] [28]}

Declined

• Chaz Allen, state senator^{[21] [29]}
• Joe Bolkcom, state senator^[30]
• Bill Brauch, former director of the Consumer Protection Division of the Iowa Attorney General's Office^{[31] [32] [33]}
• Mike Carberry, Johnson County Supervisor^{[34] [35]}
• Jeff Danielson, state senator^{[36] [37]}
• Michael Gronstal, former Majority Leader of the Iowa Senate^[36]
• Chris Hall, state representative^{[38] [39]}
• Rita Hart, state senator (nominee for Lieutenant Governor)^{[31] [40]}
• Jack Hatch, former state senator and nominee for Governor of Iowa in 2014^[34]
• Rob Hogg, Minority Leader of the Iowa Senate and candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2016^{[31] [36] [30]}
• Pam Jochum, state senator^[41]
• Dave Loebsack, U.S. Representative^{[42] [31] [43]}
• Liz Mathis, state senator^{[44] [31] [36] [45]}
• Jim Mowrer, nominee for IA-04 in 2014 and IA-03 in 2016 (ran for the nomination for Secretary of State)^{[46] [47]}
• Tyler Olson, former state representative, former chairman of the Iowa Democratic Party and candidate for Governor of Iowa in 2014^{[44] [48] [31] [49]}
• Janet Petersen, state senator^[50]
• Steve Sodders, former state senator^{[51] [52]}
• Tom Vilsack, former United States Secretary of Agriculture and former Governor of Iowa^[53]

Polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Nate Boulton	Cathy Glasson	Fred Hubbell	Andrea McGuire	Jon Neiderbach	John Norris	Ross Wilburn	Other	Undecided
Selzer & Company	May 13–15, 2018	501	± 4.4%	20%	13%	align=center	31%	5%	–	5%	3%	10%	14%
Remington	May 5–6, 2018	2,315	± 2.0%	20%	7%	align=center	46%	3%	–	5%	1%	–	18%
20-20 Insight	November 8–10, 2017	762	± 3.6%	13%	6%	align=center	22%	3%	2%	5%	1%	–	align=center	47%

Results

Libertarian primary

Libertarian Party presidential nominee Gary Johnson received 3.8 percent of the votes in Iowa in 2016, surpassing the 2 percent threshold to attain full political party status.^[54] As a result, the Libertarian Party was allowed to hold a primary to select a nominee.^[54]

Candidates

Nominated

• Jake Porter, business consultant

Declared

• Marco Battaglia, musician^[55]
• Jake Porter, nominee for Secretary of State in 2010 and 2014^{[56] [57] [58]}

Results

Independents

Candidates

• Gary Siegwarth, Fisheries Biologist^{[59] [60] [61]}

Withdrew

• Brent Roske, director and candidate for CA-33 in 2014^{[62] [63] [64]}

Endorsements

General election

Debates

Dates	Location	Reynolds	Hubbell	Link
October 17, 2018	Sioux City, Iowa	Participant	Participant	align=left	Full debate - C-SPAN
October 21, 2018	Davenport, Iowa	Participant	Participant	align=left	Full debate - C-SPAN

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
The Cook Political Report^[65]		October 26, 2018
The Washington Post^[66]		November 5, 2018
FiveThirtyEight^[67]		November 5, 2018
Rothenberg Political Report^[68]		November 1, 2018
Sabato's Crystal Ball^[69]		November 5, 2018
RealClearPolitics^[70]		November 4, 2018
Daily Kos^[71]		November 5, 2018
Fox News^[72]		November 5, 2018
Politico^[73]		November 5, 2018
Governing^[74]		November 5, 2018

Polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Kim Reynolds (R)	Fred Hubbell (D)	Jake Porter (L)	Other	Undecided
Change Research	November 2–4, 2018	961	–	46%	align=center	49%	3%	1%^[75]	–
Selzer & Company	October 30 – November 2, 2018	801	± 3.5%	44%	align=center	46%	2%	1%	7%
Emerson College	October 29 – November 1, 2018	1,462	± 2.7%	align=center	49%	45%	–	2%	5%
University of Iowa	October 8–22, 2018	452	–	40%	align=center	48%	–	5%	6%
Selzer & Company	September 17–20, 2018	555	± 4.2%	41%	align=center	43%	7%	0%	9%
Emerson College	September 6–8, 2018	1,000	± 3.2%	31%	align=center	36%	–	7%	26%
Selzer & Company	January 28–31, 2018	801	± 3.5%	align=center	42%	37%	–	12%	10%

with Nate Boulton

with Cathy Glasson

with generic Democrat

with John Norris

with Andy McGuire

Results

While pre-election polls showed Reynolds trailing Hubbell,^[76] Reynolds won 50.3% of the vote on Election Day, primarily by sweeping every county west of Des Moines and dominating the 4th Congressional District (she lost the other three).^[77] Ultimately, she carried 88 of Iowa's 99 counties.^[78] She became the first female governor of Iowa elected in her own right.^[79]

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

• Black Hawk (largest city: Waterloo)
• Clinton (largest city: Clinton)
• Des Moines (largest city: Burlington)
• Dubuque (largest city: Dubuque)
• Jefferson (largest city: Fairfield)
• Lee (largest city: Fort Madison)
• Linn (Largest city: Cedar Rapids)
• Polk (Largest city: Des Moines)
• Scott (largest city: Davenport)
• Story (Largest city: Ames)

By congressional district

Despite losing, Hubbell won 3 of 4 congressional districts.^[80]

District	Reynolds	Hubbell	Representative
		48.05%	49.31%		Abby Finkenauer
		47.29%	50.72%		Dave Loebsack
		47.03%	50.94%		Cindy Axne
		59.33%	38.63%		Steve King

See also

• Iowa elections, 2018

External links

• Candidates at Vote Smart
• Candidates at Ballotpedia

Official campaign websites

• Gary Siegwarth (I) for Governor
• Fred Hubbell (D) for Governor
• Jake Porter (L) for Governor
• Kim Reynolds (R) for Governor

Notes and References

1. News: Rucker. Philip. Denyer. Simon. 2016-12-07. Trump picks Iowa Gov. Terry Branstad — a 'friend' of China's leader — as Beijing ambassador. en-US. Washington Post. 2021-03-17. 0190-8286.
2. Web site: Noble. Jason. 2017-06-15. Kim Reynolds acknowledges plan to seek full term in 2018. 2021-03-17. Des Moines Register. en-US.
3. Web site: June 20, 2017. Ron Corbett to run for Iowa governor. live. June 20, 2017. The Gazette. https://web.archive.org/web/20170621015125/http://www.thegazette.com/subject/news/government/ron-corbett-to-run-for-iowa-governor-20170620 . June 21, 2017 .
4. News: Morelli. BA. 5 April 2018. Judge: Ron Corbett will not appear on Iowa GOP primary ballot. Sioux City Journal. 5 April 2018.
5. Web site: Boone City Council member announces run for Iowa governor. KWQC-TV. Allen. Paige. July 1, 2017. July 3, 2017. July 4, 2017. https://web.archive.org/web/20170704063644/http://www.kwqc.com/content/news/Boone-City-Council-member-announces-run-for-Iowa-governor-431974823.html. dead.
6. Web site: Johnson. Gena. Ray announces withdrawal from GOP primary race for Governor. live. The Ames Tribune. https://web.archive.org/web/20180210013338/http://www.amestrib.com/article/20180209/NEWS/302099981 . February 10, 2018 .
7. News: Longtime Iowa governor says he is not likely to run again. The Washington Post. Costa. Robert. February 9, 2015. March 6, 2015.
8. Web site: Hanson. Alex. July 1, 2015. Branstad won't rule out another term. live. July 13, 2016. Iowa State Daily. https://web.archive.org/web/20160422130305/http://www.iowastatedaily.com/news/politics_and_administration/article_c14d6dd0-1f70-11e5-aa8c-ef6e64a11946.html . April 22, 2016 .
9. Web site: Byrnes. Jesse. December 7, 2016. Steve King mulling run for governor. live. TheHill. https://web.archive.org/web/20161209135844/http://thehill.com:80/homenews/campaign/309186-steve-king-mulling-run-for-iowa-governor . December 9, 2016 .
10. News: Steve King Running for Another Term in Congress. WHO-DT. Koss. Emily. June 2, 2017. June 2, 2017.
11. Web site: Steffi Lee. December 7, 2016. Kim Reynolds slated to become the first female governor of Iowa. live. December 8, 2016. CBS2. https://web.archive.org/web/20161209162738/http://cbs2iowa.com/news/local/kim-reynolds-first-female-governor-of-iowa . December 9, 2016 .
12. Web site: Hinting at gubernatorial run, Cedar Rapids mayor won't seek re-election. The Des Moines Register. Noble. Jason. December 19, 2016. December 19, 2016.
13. Web site: Fred Hubbell is officially running for governor. The Des Moines Register. Noble. Jason. July 17, 2017. July 17, 2017.
14. Web site: Union leader Cathy Glasson makes it official, is running for governor. The Des Moines Register. Noble. Jason. September 19, 2017. September 19, 2017.
15. Web site: Andy McGuire is running for Iowa governor. The Des Moines Register. Noble. Jason. April 10, 2017. April 10, 2017.
16. Web site: Rynard. Pat. April 5, 2017. John Norris Weighing Run For Iowa Governor. live. April 5, 2017. Iowa Starting Line. https://web.archive.org/web/20170406111616/http://iowastartingline.com/2017/04/05/john-norris-weighing-run-for-iowa-governor/ . April 6, 2017 .
17. Web site: Tibbetts. Ed. June 1, 2017. Former Vilsack aide to run for governor. live. June 2, 2017. The Quad-City Times. https://web.archive.org/web/20170601233940/http://qctimes.com/news/local/government-and-politics/elections/former-vilsack-aide-to-run-for-governor/article_4e1d1449-bf11-5c93-862f-7c736d4e8394.html . June 1, 2017 .
18. Web site: Former mayor of Iowa City seeks Democratic nomination for Iowa governor. The Des Moines Register. Ufheil. Angela. August 14, 2017. August 14, 2017.
19. Web site: Democrat Nate Boulton announces run for governor. The Des Moines Register. Noble. Jason. May 4, 2017. May 4, 2017.
20. Web site: Democrat Rich Leopold to run for governor. The Des Moines Register. Noble. Jason. January 4, 2017. January 4, 2017.
21. Web site: Who Is Rich Leopold, Democrats' 1st Gubernatorial Candidate?. Iowa Starting Line. Rynard. Pat. January 4, 2017. January 4, 2017.
22. Web site: Petroski. William. June 7, 2017. Democrat Rich Leopold drops out of Iowa governor's race. June 7, 2017. The Des Moines Register.
23. Web site: Matson considering bid for governor. Quad-City Times. Tibbetts. Ed. April 2, 2017. April 5, 2017.
24. Web site: Democrat Mike Matson ends campaign for governor . Bleeding Heartland . July 1, 2017 . July 1, 2017.
25. Web site: IA-Gov: Democrat Jon Neiderbach launching campaign soon. Bleeding Heartland. January 30, 2017. February 1, 2017.
26. Web site: IA-Gov: Jon Neiderbach officially launches campaign. Bleeding Heartland. February 9, 2017. February 9, 2017.
27. Web site: Todd Prichard announces run for governor. The Waterloo-Cedar Falls Courier. Tibbetts. Ed. May 16, 2017. May 16, 2017.
28. Web site: Todd Prichard Bows Out of Gubernatorial Race. Iowa Starting Line. Rynard. Pat. August 15, 2017. August 15, 2017.
29. Web site: Allen rules out 2018 bid for governor. Newton Daily News. Mendenhall. Mike. January 19, 2017. January 19, 2017.
30. Web site: Iowa Democrats ponder next move in 2018 governor's race. The Des Moines Register. Petroski. William. January 18, 2017. January 18, 2017.
31. Web site: Iowa Governor Now Top Pick-Up Opportunity For Democrats. Iowa Starting Line. Rynard. Pat. December 11, 2016. December 14, 2016.
32. Web site: Harrington. Austin. March 2, 2017. Dems bring in O'Malley for keynote speech at annual soup supper. live. March 3, 2017. Ames Tribune. https://web.archive.org/web/20170308172402/http://www.amestrib.com:80/news/20170302/dems-bring-in-o8217malley-for-keynote-speech-at-annual-soup-supper . March 8, 2017 .
33. Web site: Nathan Blake may run for Iowa secretary of state in 2018. Bleeding Heartland. March 6, 2017. March 7, 2017.
34. Web site: The State Of Iowa Democrats' Gubernatorial Primary. Iowa Starting Line. Rynard. Pat. March 27, 2017. March 27, 2017.
35. Web site: Candidate Updates: Kiernan In, Carberry & Blake Out, Glasson Maybe. Pat Rynard . Iowa Starting Line . May 18, 2017 . May 18, 2017.
36. Web site: Eight Democrats that could join 2018 Iowa governor race. The Gazette. Murphy. Erin. December 18, 2016. December 19, 2016.
37. Web site: IA-01: Jeff Danielson on "raging incrementalism" and Iowa Democrats' culture problem. Bleeding Heartland. July 19, 2017. August 4, 2017.
38. Web site: Sioux City's Hall mulls run for governor. Sioux City Journal. Hayworth. Bret. May 1, 2017. May 12, 2017.
39. Web site: Hall endorses Hubbell for Iowa governor. Sioux City Journal. Hayworth. Bret. November 20, 2017. November 21, 2017.
40. Web site: IA-Gov: Boulton, Hubbell lead in early legislative endorsements. Bleeding Heartland. August 23, 2017. August 24, 2017.
41. Web site: Jochum Not Considering Run for Governor. KDTH. January 24, 2017. January 25, 2017. https://web.archive.org/web/20170202052701/http://kdth.radiodubuque.com/jochum-not-considering-run-governor/. February 2, 2017. dead.
42. Web site: Representative Dave Loebsack. Iowa Public Television. Borg. Dean. May 13, 2016. December 14, 2016.
43. News: Loebsack lays out plan for 2018. Newton Daily News. Dolmage. David. August 3, 2017. August 3, 2017.
44. Web site: The 2018 Iowa Gubernatorial Race – Three Questions. Caffeinated Thoughts. Vander Hart. Shane. December 6, 2016. December 7, 2016.
45. Web site: Liz Mathis Passes On Gubernatorial Run. Iowa Starting Line. Rynard. Pat. January 17, 2017. January 17, 2017.
46. Web site: GOP women rise to power in Iowa . Robillard . Kevin . December 7, 2016 . . December 9, 2016.
47. Web site: If Todd Prichard runs for governor, his stump speech will sound like this. Bleeding Heartland. February 22, 2017. February 24, 2017.
48. Web site: Corbett, Olson face decisions. The Gazette. Dorman. Todd. June 16, 2016. July 13, 2016.
49. Web site: Mayoral possibilities list shrinks. The Gazette. Dorman. Todd. January 31, 2017. March 13, 2017.
50. Web site: Mathis, Petersen, Many More Legislators Endorse Boulton Day After Launch . Pat Rynard . Iowa Starting Line . May 5, 2017 . May 5, 2017.
51. Web site: 2018 governor's race critical for Iowa Democrats. Quad-City Times. Murphy. Erin. December 18, 2016. December 19, 2016.
52. Web site: Democratic Senator, Boulton, Gaining Activist Support In Run For Governor. KCIM. Grove. Chantelle. May 19, 2017. May 22, 2017.
53. Web site: Vilsack willing to guide party toward 'important business' of 2018. Radio Iowa. Henderson. O. Kay. November 9, 2016. November 12, 2016.
54. Web site: State Board certifies Iowa election results. Quad-City Times. Boshart. Rod. December 5, 2016. December 19, 2016.
55. Web site: Who's running for office in Iowa in 2018?. The Des Moines Register. Noble. Jason. August 28, 2017. September 19, 2017.
56. Web site: Libertarian Porter to announce run for governor. The Little Daily Report. Davis. Andy. March 7, 2016. July 13, 2016.
57. Web site: A Look Ahead at the 2018 Iowa Gubernatorial Race. Caffeinated Thoughts. Vander Hart. Shane. March 7, 2016. July 3, 2017.
58. Web site: Jake Porter to run for governor as Libertarian. The Des Moines Register. Noble. Jason. July 25, 2017. August 4, 2017.
59. Web site: GaryForGov. GaryForGov. en-US. 2018-09-15. December 15, 2018. https://web.archive.org/web/20181215235337/https://garyforgov.org/. dead.
60. Web site: Clear Water Party of Iowa – Water Connects US All. Clearwater Party. en-US. 2018-09-15.
61. Web site: Gary Siegwarth for IA Governor. Facebook. en. 2018-09-15.
62. Web site: Hollywood director enters Iowa gubernatorial race. April 20, 2017. April 20, 2017.
63. Web site: Filmmaker Brent Roske making independent run for Iowa governor. The Des Moines Register. Noble. Jason. May 8, 2017. May 12, 2017.
64. News: Pfannenstiel . Brianne . Brent Roske ends candidacy in Iowa governor's race . 3 June 2018 . Des Moines Register . December 26, 2017.
65. Web site: 2018 Governor Race Ratings for October 26, 2018. The Cook Political Report. en. 2021-04-10.
66. News: The Washington Post's gubernatorial race ratings. The Washington Post. October 16, 2018.
67. Web site: 2018 Governor Forecast FiveThirtyEight. FiveThirtyEight. October 17, 2018 . en. October 17, 2018.
68. Web site: 2018 Gubernatorial Ratings Inside Elections. insideelections.com. en. 2017-11-15.
69. Web site: Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball » 2018 Governor. www.centerforpolitics.org. en-US. 2017-11-15.
70. Web site: 2018 Governor Races. RealClearPolitics. October 9, 2018.
71. Web site: 2018 Governor Race Ratings. Daily Kos. June 5, 2018.
72. Web site: 2018 Midterm Power Ranking. Fox News. April 15, 2023 .
73. Web site: Politico Race Ratings. Politico.
74. Web site: 2018 Governor Elections: As November Nears, More Governors' Races Become Tossups . www.governing.com . en . 2018-07-18 . October 21, 2018 . https://web.archive.org/web/20181021005343/http://www.governing.com/topics/politics/gov-governors-races-july-ratings.html . dead .
75. Gary Siegwarth (Clear Water) with 1%
76. Web site: In Danger Of Losing, Iowa Governor Enlists Republican Heavy Hitters Ahead Of Midterms. NPR.org.
77. Web site: Iowa Governor Election Results 2018: Live Midterm Map by County & Analysis. www.politico.com.
78. Web site: Gov. Reynolds Wins A Full Term In A Close Election. Joyce. Russell. www.iowapublicradio.org. November 7, 2018 .
79. Web site: Sarah . Ferris . Kim Reynolds is Iowa's first elected female governor . Politico . November 7, 2018.
80. Web site: Presidential Results by Congressional District, 2000-2008 – Swing State Project.