Iowa State Fair Straw Poll Explained

The Iowa State Fair Straw Poll is an informal poll for presidential and Iowa congressional candidates. The poll has been conducted by the Iowa Secretary of State with results posted to their website.[1] [2] It was begun in 2015 after the Republican Party of Iowa announced it would no longer hold its official Iowa Straw Poll given that a majority of presidential candidates declined to participate.[3]

2015 Results

In 2015, the State Fair poll found Donald Trump to be the most favored GOP candidate among 677 votes cast, defeating Ben Carson and Sen. Ted Cruz (Texas). Cruz went on to win the Iowa GOP caucuses, defeating Trump by 4 percent. On the Democratic side, out of a little more than 1,000 votes total, Hillary Clinton was the most popular Democrat defeating Bernie Sanders 49 percent to 45 percent.[4] Clinton went on to defeat Sanders in the Democratic state primary by less than 1 percent.[5]

Democratic

Source of results: Iowa Secretary of State[6]

CandidateStraw poll resultsActual caucus resultsDifference
PlaceVotesPercentagePlacePercentagePlacePercentage
Hillary Clinton11,33849.19%149.84%---0.65%
Bernie Sanders21,21744.17%249.59%--+5.42%
Martin O'Malley31274.67%30.54%---4.13%
Lincoln Chafee4200.74%Withdrawn
Jim Webb5180.66%Withdrawn

Republican

Source of results: Iowa Secretary of State[7]

CandidateStraw poll resultsActual caucus resultsDifference
PlaceVotesPercentagePlaceVotesPercentagePlacePercentage
Donald Trump11,83029.91%245,42724.30%-1-5.61%
Ben Carson21,18519.37%417,3959.30%-2-10.07%
Ted Cruz35438.88%143,16527.64%+2+14.24%
Carly Fiorina44597.50%73,4851.86%-3-5.64%
Marco Rubio53706.05%343,16523.12%+2+17.07%
Scott Walker63245.30%Withdrawn
Jeb Bush73125.10%65,2382.80%+1-2.30%
Bobby Jindal82253.68%Withdrawn
Mike Huckabee91883.07%93,3451.79%---1.28%
Rand Paul101822.97%58,4814.54%+5+1.57%
John Kasich111602.62%83,4741.86%+3-0.76%
Rick Perry121372.24%Withdrawn
Chris Christie13661.08%103,2841.76%+3-0.68%
Rick Santorum14651.06%111,7830.95%+3-0.11%
Lindsey Graham15390.64%Withdrawn
George Pataki16240.39%Withdrawn
Mark Everson1780.13%Withdrawn
Jim Gilmore1810.02%12120.01%+6-0.01%

2019 Results

In 2019, the State Fair saw a record-setting attendance of just under 1.2 million people over the course of its 11-day run. The Straw Poll result was published on August 19, 2019. On the Republican side, in total 1,976 votes were cast for 2 candidates. On the Democratic side, there were 24 candidates listed in the presidential poll and 2,118 votes cast.[8]

Democratic

CandidateStraw poll resultsActual caucus resultsDifference
PlaceVotesPercentagePlaceVotesPercentagePlacePercentage
Joe Biden137417.7%426,29114.9%-3-2.8%
Elizabeth Warren236417.2%332,58918.5%-1+1.3%
Pete Buttigieg329213.8%237,57221.3%+1+7.5%
Bernie Sanders421510.2%143,58124.7%+3+14.5%
Kamala Harris51788.4%Withdrawn
Cory Booker61296.1%Withdrawn
Tulsi Gabbard71014.8%93410.2%-2-4.6%
Amy Klobuchar8733.5%522,45412.7%+3+9.2%
Tom Steyer9602.8%73,0611.7%+2-1.1%
Andrew Yang10582.7%68,9145.1%+3+2.4%
Beto O'Rourke11462.2%Withdrawn
Marianne Williamson12331.6%Withdrawn
Steve Bullock13331.6%Withdrawn
Julian Castro14321.5%Withdrawn
John Delaney15261.2%Withdrawn
Kirsten Gillibrand16221.0%Withdrawn
Michael Bennet17190.9%101641.0%+7-0.1%
Bill de Blasio18180.9%Withdrawn
John Hickenlooper19140.7%Withdrawn
Jay Inslee20110.5%Withdrawn
Tim Ryan2170.3%Withdrawn
Seth Moulton2250.2%Withdrawn
Joe Sestak2340.2%Withdrawn
Wayne Messam2440.2%Withdrawn

Republican

CandidateStraw poll resultsActual caucus resultsDifference
PlaceVotesPercentagePlaceVotesPercentagePlacePercentage
Donald Trump11,90296.26%131,42197.14%---0.88%
Bill Weld2743.74%24251.31%---2.43%

2023 Results

Democratic

Source of results: Iowa Secretary of State[9]

CandidateStraw poll results
PlaceVotesPercentage
Joe Biden173266.97%
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.220518.76%
Marianne Williamson315614.27%

Republican

Source of results: Iowa Secretary of State

CandidateStraw poll resultsActual caucus resultsDifference
PlaceVotesPercentagePlaceVotesPercentagePlacePercentage
Donald Trump11,50142.47%156,26051.01%--+8.54%
Ron DeSantis254115.31%223,42021.23%--+5.92%
Tim Scott339211.09%Withdrawn
Vivek Ramaswamy43319.37%48,4497.66%---1.71%
Perry Johnson52206.23%Withdrawn
Nikki Haley61333.76%321,08519.12%+3+15.36%
Asa Hutchinson71203.40%61910.17%+1-3.23%
Mike Pence8972.74%Withdrawn
Doug Burgum9962.72%Withdrawn
Will Hurd10371.05%Withdrawn
Ryan Binkley11270.76%57740.70% +6-0.06%
Francis Suarez12230.65%Withdrawn
Larry Elder13160.45%Withdrawn

Libertarian

Source of results: Iowa Secretary of State

CandidateStraw poll results
PlaceVotesPercentage
Chase Oliver1 (tied)2718.88%
Raymond Dude Wagner1 (tied)2718.88%
Aaron Avouris3 (tied)117.69%
Melissa Biondi3 (tied)117.69%
Hugo Valdez Garcia5106.99%
David Reed DeSilva6 (tied)85.59%
Jon Stewart6 (tied)85.59%
David Dunlap8 (tied)64.20%
Jacob Hornberger8 (tied)64.20%
Kevin Babicz10 (tied)53.50%
Charles Griffith Ferry10 (tied)53.50%
Antonio Gagnon12 (tied)42.80%
Mike ter Maat12 (tied)42.80%
Russell DeLeon14 (tied)32.10%
Lars Mapstead14 (tied)32.10%
Joshua Rodriguez16 (tied)21.40%
Nathan J. Vaught Jr.16 (tied)21.40%
Seymour Art Lee1810.70%
Beau Lindsey19 (tied)00.00%
Kevin Tucker19 (tied)00.00%

Notes and References

  1. Web site: On the Stump: The Polls are coming! The Polls are coming!. August 15, 2015. Toledo Chronicle, Tama News-Herald. August 22, 2019.
  2. Web site: 2019 Iowa State Fair Straw Poll Results. Pate. Paul. August 19, 2019. Iowa Secretary of State. August 20, 2019.
  3. Web site: It's over: the end of the Iowa Straw Poll. June 12, 2015. NBC News. June 12, 2015.
  4. Web site: Iowa State Fair attendees pick Sanders over Clinton. Richardson. Bradford. August 17, 2015. www.thehill.com. The Hill. 2015-08-20.
  5. Web site: Election 2016 - Iowa Democratic Presidential Caucus. RealClearPolitics. March 28, 2016.
  6. Web site: State Fair Poll Results. Iowa Secretary of State. October 22, 2019.
  7. Web site: State Fair Poll Results. Iowa Secretary of State. October 22, 2019.
  8. Web site: 2019 Iowa State Fair Straw Poll results. Siouxland News. August 19, 2019.
  9. Web site: 2023 Iowa State Fair Straw Poll. Iowa Secretary of State. August 15, 2023.

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