Islamist insurgency in the Sahel explained

Conflict:Islamist insurgency in the Sahel
Partof:the war on terror and spillover of the Insurgency in the Maghreb (2002–present)
Date:15 February 2011 – present
Place:Sahel (mainly Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger)
Status:Ongoing
Combatant1:Local governments:
Mali
Burkina Faso
Niger[1]
Nigeria
Cameroon
Chad
Togo[2]
Ghana[3]
[4]
Benin[5] ---- MINUSMA (2013–2023)
AFISMA (from 2013)----
Combatant2: Al-Qaeda and allies: AQIM (from 2007)
JNIM (from 2017)

Ansar al-Sharia of Mali (2012–present)
Ansar ul Islam (2016–present)
Al-Mulathameen
Al-Shabaab
Salafist Group for Preaching and Combat remnants[6]
Ansar al-Sharia of Mauritania
National Movement for the Liberation of Azawad (2012)---- IS-GS
Boko Haram (from 2006, partially aligned with ISIL since 2015)[7]
ISWAP
Ansaru----Islamic Movement of Nigeria

Commander1: Assimi Goïta
Choguel Kokalla Maïga
Ibrahim Traoré
Apollinaire J. Kyélem de Tambèla
Abdourahamane Tchiani
Ali Lamine Zeine
Bola Tinubu
Paul Biya
Joseph Ngute
Mahamat Déby
Succès Masra
Faure Gnassingbé
Victoire Tomegah Dogbé
Nana Akufo-Addo
Alassane Ouattara
Robert Beugré Mambé
Patrice Talon
Commander2: Abdelmalek Droukdel[8]
Abu Ubaidah Youssef al-Annabi
Iyad Ag Ghaly[9]
Amadou Koufa
Adnan Abu Walid al-Sahrawi
Abu al-Bara al-Sahrawi[10]
Ibrahim Malam Dicko
Abdoul Salam Dicko[11]
Strength1:Total armed forces:
Mali

7,350
AFISMA: 2,900
Niger

12,000
Chad: 30,350
France

5,100 deployed in the Sahel[12] [13]
Supported by:
United States

1,325+ advisors, trainers[14]

Strength2: AQIM (former GSPC): 1,000[15] [16] –4,000[17]
MUJAO: ~500[18]
Al-Mourabitoun: Fewer than 100[19]
Ansar Dine: 300[20] –10,000----
Casualties3:34,074+ people killed
3 million displaced

An Islamist insurgency has been ongoing in the Sahel region of West Africa since the 2011 Arab Spring. In particular, the intensive conflict in the three countries of Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso has been referred to as the Sahel War.

The conflict is generally seen to have begun during the early stages of the Mali War, which itself was seen as a spillover conflict of the Insurgency in the Maghreb. As Islamist Tuareg rebels overran Mali in 2012, a concurrent insurgency in Nigeria, led by Boko Haram, began to spread to nearby countries. By 2015, the Mali war had spread to Burkina Faso and Niger, which led to heavy fighting and humanitarian crises in both countries. The conflict in Nigeria also reached a climax before a coalition offensive forced insurgents into remission. By 2019, the effects of the region-wide conflict began to accelerate due to resentment within the populace and due to alleged inability to handle the conflict. These views led to a series of coups in Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger, Sudan, Chad and Guinea, which led to the region being labeled a 'coup belt'.

Background

See main article: Insurgency in the Maghreb (2002–present) and First Libyan Civil War. Since 2007, the al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) have been engaging the Algerian government in an insurgency campaign in the Maghreb. AQIM fighters are mostly drawn from the Algerian and local Saharan communities (such as the Tuareg and the tribal clans of Mali).[24] After the First Libyan Civil War in 2011, south-western Libya has offered sanctuaries to AQIM fighters, which dispatched cells to be established in the region.[25]

Western Sahel

Mali

Tuareg rebellion and Malian civil war

See main article: Tuareg rebellion (2012) and Mali War. After the end of the 2011 Libyan Civil War, an influx of weaponry led to the arming of the Tuareg in their demand for greater autonomy and independence of their homeland in northern Mali, which they called Azawad.[26] In Libya, the Tuareg people largely supported Gaddafi during the war, and Tuareg areas such as Ghat remain Gaddafi loyalist strongholds.[27] Tuareg fighters who fought for Gaddafi began to return from Libya after war ends, citing discrimination from the new government.[28]

In October 2011, the National Movement for the Liberation of Azawad (MNLA) was formed from rebels of previous Tuareg rebellions and fighters who have returned from Libya. Another Tuareg-dominated group, the Islamist Ansar Dine, also fought against the Malian government. However, unlike the MNLA, it does not seek independence but rather the impositions of sharia across united Mali.[29]

In March 2012, Malian President Amadou Toumani Touré was ousted in a coup d'état over his handling of the conflict. Following the coup, Northern Mali's three largest cities: Kidal, Gao and Timbuktu were overrun by the rebels.[30]

On 6 April 2012, the MNLA said that it had accomplished its goals and proclaimed Azawad to be independent from Mali.[31]

The MNLA were initially backed by Ansar Dine. However, Ansar Dine and other Islamist groups, including Movement for Oneness and Jihad in West Africa (MUJAO), a splinter group of AQIM, began imposing strict Sharia law in conquered territories. They soon came into conflict with the MNLA. By July 2012, the MNLA had lost control of most of northern Mali to the Islamists.[32]

By January 2013, Islamist forces advanced to 600 km from the capital and were closing in to capture the major town of Mopti. The MNLA began peace talks to realign with the Malian government while the French military launched Opération Serval on January 11, intervening in the conflict. French air campaign helped Malian government to push back Islamist advances, allowing them to take back major cities of Timbuktu, Gao and Kidal. By the end of May 2013, Islamist and Tuareg forces have to retreat to the desert of northeastern Mali.

Foreign interventions

See main article: Operation Juniper Shield and Operation Barkhane. Since february 2007 the United States and partner nations in the Saharan and Sahel regions of Africa conduct Operation Juniper Shield, consisting of counterterrorism efforts and policing of arms and drug trafficking across central Africa.

French Opération Serval ended in July 2014. Operation Barkhane commenced shortly after on 1 August 2014 to "assure the Sahel nations' security, and in effect France's security".[33]

In 2022 Russian mercenaries from the Wagner Group were deployed in Mali,[34] [35] as well as soldiers from the Russian regular army. At the same time, Turkish intervention had intensified.

Insurgency spreading to other countries

Niger

See main article: Jihadist insurgency in Niger and American military intervention in Niger. The Niger faces jihadist insurgencies both in its western regions (as a result of the spillover of the Mali War) and in its southeastern region (as a result of the spillover of the Islamic insurgency in Nigeria). The insurgency in the west of the country began with incursions in 2015 and intensified from 2017 onwards. Since 2021, attacks were carried out with greater frequency in the country. In 2023 a coup was carried out that was successful leading to the creation of a military junta and start to an international crisis.

Burkina Faso

See main article: Jihadist insurgency in Burkina Faso. The insurgency in the Sahel spread to Burkina Faso in 2015, beginning with an attack on a gendarmerie by alleged Boko Haram members. In 2016, the amount of attacks spiked after a new group, Ansarul Islam was founded by imam Ibrahim Malam Dicko.

Since 2021, the insurgency in Burkina Faso has begun to spread to neighboring countries of Ivory Coast, Ghana, Benin and Togo. On 8 February 2022, insurgents attacked the W National Park in Benin, killing nine people. On 11 May 2022, militants crossed the border into Togo and killed eight soldiers.[36]

2020s

See main article: Coup Belt. Beginning in the early 2020s, numerous coups were staged in countries in the Sahel, namely the 2020 and 2021 coups in Mali, in Guinea, Chad, Sudan, Burkina Faso and Niger. The coups further complicated the situation in the region.

Boko Haram and ISWAP insurgency

See main article: Boko Haram insurgency. Having cooperated and trained alongside AQIM in the Sahel since 2006, the Nigerian Islamist group Boko Haram began expanding into Chad and Niger in 2014 after successfully seizing territory in the insurgency in Nigeria.[37] By then controlling a significant area around Lake Chad, a coalition of Western African countries launched an offensive against the group in January 2015.[38] The group eventually departed its alliance with al-Qaeda, pledging allegiance to ISIL in March 2015. By the end of 2015 Boko Haram had been largely pushed to retreat into the Sambisa Forest in Nigeria, although attacks have continued including in Niger.[39] [40]

Timeline

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

Members of the Burkina Faso Armed Forces killed 223 civilians in Nondin and Soro.[332]

Effects

See also: Coup belt. As a result of the insurgency, the affected countries have been severely destabilized, with the emergence of the coup belt following several coup d'états within the region due to perceived inability to handle the conflict. In Mali and Burkina Faso, both countries lost significant control of their territory to the Islamists. The conflict has also seen a political shift in the region, with many military juntas, many having recently overthrown US- and Chinese-backed governments, allying themselves with the Russian government and the Wagner Group. In particular, Mali has seen significant activity of the Wagner Group as the government moved closer to Turkey and Russia. Niger saw its government being overthrown in 2023 due to poor management of the conflict. In particular, the M62 Movement, a pro-Russian and anti-Imperialist group, supported the coup. Burkina Faso also saw its government being overthrown twice within a year, with coups occurring in January and September, both of which caused by poor management of the conflict against Islamists.

Although not affected as much, countries nearby like Ghana, Benin, Guinea, Togo and the Ivory Coast have been under constant threat of either full-on insurgency or severe destabilization internally. Guinea has already seen a coup d'état while the Gambia has seen turmoil internally. Northern Benin has seen an increase in terrorism attributed to Jama'at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin and the Islamic State, with 28 incidents attributed to the groups between 1 November 2021 and 14 September 2022, including the W National Park massacre.[338]

See also

Notes and References

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  2. News: Zodzi . John . 13 November 2021 . Togo says repelled possible militant attack near Burkina Faso border . National Post .
  3. https://www.kas.de/documents/261825/16928652/The+jihadist+threat+in+northern+Ghana+and+Togo.pdf/
  4. Web site: Concern Grows About Jihadi Activity in Ivory Coast .
  5. News: 3 December 2021 . Au Bénin, l'armée en état d'alerte après une attaque djihadiste . La Croix . live . 2022-06-03 . https://web.archive.org/web/20220211181747/https://www.la-croix.com/Monde/Au-Benin-larmee-etat-dalerte-attaque-djihadiste-2021-12-03-1201188344 . 2022-02-11.
  6. Web site: Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM). Council on Foreign Relations. 26 October 2014. https://web.archive.org/web/20150511122144/http://www.cfr.org/terrorist-organizations-and-networks/al-qaeda-islamic-maghreb-aqim/p12717#p8. 11 May 2015. dead.
  7. News: Niger attacked by both al-Qaeda and Boko Haram. BBC News. 13 May 2016. 2016-03-18. 2016-04-15. https://web.archive.org/web/20160415061728/http://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-35842300. live.
  8. Web site: 2020-06-08 . Three prominent jihadists dominate Sahel after death of al Qaeda leader . 2024-05-16 . France 24 . en.
  9. Web site: 2023-12-13 . Al Qaeda Saharan branch leader announces new Jihad phase against juntas . 2024-05-16 . France 24 . en.
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  24. Organized Crime and Conflict in the Sahel-Sahara Region https://carnegieendowment.org/files/sahel_sahara.pdf
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