2010 Illinois gubernatorial election explained

Election Name:2010 Illinois gubernatorial election
Country:Illinois
Type:presidential
Ongoing:no
Previous Election:2006 Illinois gubernatorial election
Previous Year:2006
Next Election:2014 Illinois gubernatorial election
Next Year:2014
Election Date:November 2, 2010
Image1:File:Governor Pat Quinn (a).jpg
Nominee1:Pat Quinn
Running Mate1:Sheila Simon
Party1:Democratic Party (United States)
Popular Vote1:1,745,219
Percentage1:46.79%
Nominee2:Bill Brady
Party2:Republican Party (United States)
Running Mate2:Jason Plummer
Popular Vote2:1,713,385
Percentage2:45.94%
Map Size:300px
Governor
Before Election:Pat Quinn
Before Party:Democratic Party (United States)
After Election:Pat Quinn
After Party:Democratic Party (United States)
Turnout:49.69% 2.40 pp

The 2010 Illinois gubernatorial election took place on November 2, 2010. Incumbent Democratic Governor Pat Quinn was elected to a full term in office, having become governor in 2009 following the impeachment and removal of Governor Rod Blagojevich.[1] Quinn was elected as the Democratic nominee,[2] the Illinois Green Party nominee was attorney and 2006 nominee Rich Whitney, the Republican nominee was State Senator Bill Brady, the Libertarian Party nominee was Lex Green, and Scott Lee Cohen ran as an independent.

Quinn was elected to a full term in a very close race, defeating Brady by only about 32,000 votes with Brady carrying 98 of the state's 102 counties.[3] Prior to the general election, the primary election in February 2010 featured extremely close races between candidates for the two largest parties' nominations. Quinn warded off a challenge by Comptroller Dan Hynes by a margin of about 8,300 votes, while Brady won the Republican nomination on the strength of fewer than 200 votes in a fractured seven-way race. This was the first time Gallatin County went Republican for the governor level since 1920. The election marked the first time since 1852 that the Democrats won three consecutive gubernatorial elections in Illinois.[4] This is also the first gubernatorial election since 1990 in which the winner was of the same party as the incumbent president.

Election information

The primaries and general elections coincided with those for federal elections (Senate and House), as well as those for other state offices. The election was part of the 2010 Illinois elections.

Turnout

For the primaries, turnout for the gubernatorial primaries was 22.21%, with 1,688,297 votes cast and turnout for the lieutenant gubernatorial primaries was 20.10% with 1,527,782 votes cast.[5] [6] For the general election, turnout was 49.69%, with 3,729,989 votes cast.[5] [6]

Democratic primaries

Quinn defeated Hynes by just under 9,000 votes, while Cohen won an upset over establishment candidates by just over 3% campaigning as a political outsider.[7]

Governor

Candidates

Debates

Democratic candidates Quinn and Hynes debated on January 19.[8] WSIU Public Broadcasting (WSIU (FM)/WSIU-TV) at Southern Illinois University and Illinois Public Media (WILL AM/FM/TV) at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign also co-sponsored two gubernatorial primary election debates.[9] [10] Pat Quinn and Dan Hynes debated on January 21, 2010.[11]

Polling

Poll sourceDates administeredPat
Quinn
Lisa
Madigan
Dan
Hynes
Undecided
Public Policy PollingJanuary 26, 201040% align=center41%19%
Chicago TribuneJanuary 16–20, 2010 align=center44%40%15%
Chicago TribuneDecember 2–8, 2009 align=center49%23%23%
Simon Public PolicyOctober 16, 2009 align=center33.9%16.5% align=center35.4%
Public Policy PollingApril 24–26, 200929% align=center45%26%

Results

Lieutenant governor

Candidates

Aftermath

Scott Lee Cohen was replaced as the Democratic lieutenant gubernatorial nominee by former Carbondale City Councilwoman Sheila Simon after he withdrew due to allegations of abuse toward his wife and other charges.

Republican primaries

As on the Democratic side, both the gubernatorial and lieutenant gubernatorial primaries were extremely close, though moreso. Brady defeated Dillard by 0.02%, while Plummer defeated Murphy by just 0.65%.

Governor

Candidates

Declared
Withdrew

Results

Lieutenant governor

Candidates

Withdrawn

Results

Green primaries

Governor

Candidates

Results

Lieutenant governor

Candidates

Results

General election

Candidates

Campaign

After the February 2 Democratic primary in which incumbent Governor Pat Quinn was nominated, attention was drawn to Scott Lee Cohen, the Democratic nominee for lieutenant governor. Illinois law required that candidates for governor and lieutenant governor run in separate primary elections, but run as a ticket in the November general election. Cohen was criticized for his having been charged with domestic battery, in which he was accused of holding a knife to the throat of an ex-girlfriend who was also a convicted prostitute. Cohen was also accused by his ex-wife of physical abuse and using illegally obtained anabolic steroids.[16] Quinn and Dick Durbin, Illinois's senior U.S. Senator, both said that Cohen should withdraw his candidacy,[17] [18] which he did on February 7.[19] Cohen ran as an independent candidate for the office of governor against Quinn.[15]

On March 27, 2010, the Democratic State Central Committee chose a replacement candidate, Sheila Simon.[20] [21] Dan Hynes, who placed second in the gubernatorial primary, denied interest in replacing Cohen on the ticket.[21] Other names suggested included State Representative Art Turner, who placed second to Cohen in the Democratic primary and then finished second to Simon in committee balloting on March 27, 2010; State Senators Rickey Hendon and Terry Link, State Representative Mike Boland, and electrician Thomas Castillo, all of whom also ran in the primary; U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs official Tammy Duckworth; and State Representative Julie Hamos were suggested as possible replacements.[21] Jeff Melvin, a 21-year retired army veteran, also applied to the open nominating call for the Democratic lieutenant governor position.[22]

At one point during the campaign, Quinn, struggling to make up ground amidst poor polling numbers against Brady, accused his Republican opponent of supporting a bill to kill puppies. In fact, the bill regulated shelters' practices when they euthanize animals.[23] Quinn struggled to shake off Blagojevich's scandals, leading to poor approval ratings throughout the campaign, despite Quinn denouncing Blagojevich.[24] Quinn trailed Brady by more than 10 points at times, despite Illinois being a deeply Democratic state.

A central issue in the campaign was the state income tax. Quinn advocated for a one percentage point – or 33 percent – increase in the state's income tax to primarily fund education, while Brady called for a 10 percent across the board cut in state government and placing the State Board of Education under the governor's control.[25]

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
Cook Political Report[26] October 14, 2010
Rothenberg[27] October 28, 2010
RealClearPolitics[28] November 1, 2010
Sabato's Crystal Ball[29] October 28, 2010
CQ Politics[30] October 28, 2010

Polling

Poll sourceDates
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Pat
Quinn (D)
Bill
Brady (R)
Rich
Whitney (G)
OtherUnde-
cided
align=left Fox News (http://www.foxnews.com/projects/pdf/IL_Topline.pdf)align=left October 23, 20101,000± 3.0%align=center 39% align=center 44%4%7%6%
align=left Chicago Tribune (https://web.archive.org/web/20101028121337/http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/elections/ct-met-illinois-governor-race-1026-20101025,0,701182.story)align=left October 18–22, 2010700± 3.7%align=center 39% align=center 43%4%7%6%
align=left Rasmussen Reports (http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2010/election_2010_governor_elections/illinois/election_2010_illinois_governor)align=left October 20, 2010750± 4.0%align=center 37% align=center 45%2%7%8%
align=left Rasmussen Reports (report)align=left October 12, 2010750± 4.5%align=center 40% align=center 46%2%9%3%
align=left Southern Illinois University (http://www.pantagraph.com/news/state-and-regional/illinois/article_0ae47afc-d632-11df-be2b-001cc4c03286.html)align=left September 30 – October 10, 2010 - ± 3.5%align=center 29.8% align=center 38.4%2.2%5.9%-
align=left Rasmussen Reports (report)align=left October 4, 2010500± 4.5%align=center 38% align=center 46%4%5%8%
align=left Suffolk University (report)align=left September 30 – October 3, 2010500±4.4% align=center 43%align=center 37%align=center 3%align=center 8%align=center 8%
align=left (Public Policy Polling)align=left September 30, 2010470±4.5%align=center 35% align=center 42%align=center 4%align center 8%align=center 11%
align=left Chicago Tribune (report)align=left September 24–28, 2010600±4% align=center 39%align=center 38%align=center 3%align=center 8%align=center 12%
align=left CNN/TIME (report)align-left September 24–28, 20101,504±2.5%align=center 38% align=center 40%align=center 4%align=center 16%align=center 2%
align=left We Ask America (https://archive.today/20120716141445/http://weaskamerica.com/2010/09/17/illinois-governors-race/)align=left September 13, 20101,050±2.70%align=center 32% align=center 42%align=center 4%align=center align=center 16%
align=left Rasmussen Reports (report)align=left September 12, 2010750±4.0%align=center 37% align=center 50%align=center 4%align=center 7%align=center 3%
align=left Chicago Tribune (report)align=left Aug. 28 – Sept. 1, 2010600±4.0%align=center 32% align=center 37%align=center 2%align=center align=center 19%
align=left Rasmussen Reports (report)align=left August 23, 2010750±4.0%align=center 37% align=center 46%align=center align=center 6%align=center 11%
align=left Public Policy Polling (report)align=left August 14–15, 2010576±4.1%align=center 30% align=center 39%align=center 11%align=center align=center 6%
align=left Rasmussen Reports (report)align=left August 9, 2010750±4.0%align=center 35% align=center 48%align=center align=center 6%align=center 12%
align=left Rasmussen Reports (report)align=left July 27, 2010750±4.0%align=center 37% align=center 44%align=center align=center 11%align=center 9%
align=left Rasmussen Reports (report)align=left July 7, 2010500±4.5%align=center 40% align=center 43%align=center align=center 9%align=center 8%
align=left Public Policy Polling (report)align=left June 12–13, 2010552±4.2%align=center 30% align=center 34%align=center 9%align=center align=center 27%
align=left Rasmussen Reports (report)align=left June 7, 2010500±4.5%align=center 36% align=center 47%align=center align=center 8%align=center 10%
align=left Research 2000 (report)align=left May 3–5, 2010600±4.0%align=center 36% align=center 39%align=center align=center align=center 25%
align=left We Ask America (https://web.archive.org/web/20100511034425/http://weaskamerica.com/2010/05/03/report-of-death-exaggerated/)align=left May 2, 20101,050±3.02%align=center 31.15% align=center 46.25%align=center 4.81%align=center align=center 17.79%
align=left Rasmussen Reports (report)align=left April 28, 2010500± 4.5%align=center 38% align=center 45%align=center align=center 5%align=center 11%
align=left Rasmussen Reports (http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections2/election_2010/election_2010_governor_elections/illinois/election_2010_illinois_governor)align=left April 8, 2010500± 4.5%align=center 38% align=center 45%align=center align=center 7%align=center 10%
align=left Public Policy Polling (report)align=left April 5, 2010591± 4.0%align=center 33% align=center 43%align=center align=center align=center 24%
align=left We Ask America (http://weaskamerica.com/?p=159)align=left March 10, 20107983.5%align=center 31.58% align=center 44.61%align=center 3.51%align=center align=center 20.30%
align=left Rasmussen Reports (report)align=left March 8, 2010500± 4.5%align=center 37% align=center 47%align=center align=center 6%align=center 9%
align=left Research 2000 (report)align=left February 22 –24, 2010600± 4.0% align=center 47%align=center 32%align=center align=center 1%align=center 20%
align=left The Illinois Poll (https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AiI2sTM6pm2cdDBXWE1xWWR2NWlWVFlhYzVlRW56a1E&hl=en#gid=0)align=left February 7, 20101,200± 2.8% align=center 42%align=center 31%align=center 4%23%
align=left Rasmussen Reports (report)align=left December 14, 2009500± 4.5% align=center 45%align=center 30%align=center 13%13%

Results

Even though Brady won 98 out of the 102 counties, Quinn narrowly prevailed. Brady won almost everywhere in the state, including all of the collar counties of the Chicago suburbs. Quinn initially had a large lead when results first began to come in, as heavily populated areas tend to report their votes faster. However, once the more suburban and rural areas came in Brady narrowed the gap significantly. Quinn's huge win in Cook County proved too much for Brady to overcome, however. Brady conceded defeat later the following day on November 3, when it became clear he would lose. Quinn's win was ranked by Politico as the 7th biggest upset of the 2010 elections.

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

See also

External links

Notes and References

  1. News: Gov. Pat Quinn to run in 2010. 'I think I am doing a good job today' . Lynn . Sweet . Lynn Sweet . . Chicago . 2009-02-24 . 2009-05-29 . 'I have no reason not to run,' Quinn told me when I asked him about the 2010 election . dead . https://web.archive.org/web/20090401145500/http://blogs.suntimes.com/sweet/2009/02/gov_pat_quinn_to_run_in_2010_i.html . 2009-04-01 .
  2. News: Hynes concedes Dem governor race to Quinn . Ray . Long . . Chicago . 2010-02-04 . 2010-02-04 .
  3. Web site: Ballots Cast . Elections.il.gov . 2013-10-14 . https://web.archive.org/web/20130921062537/http://www.elections.il.gov/electioninformation/VoteTotalsList.aspx?ElectionType=GE&ElectionID=29&SearchType=OfficeSearch&OfficeID=5370&QueryType=Office& . 2013-09-21 . dead .
  4. [:fr:Résultats des élections des gouverneurs dans l'Illinois]
  5. Web site: Voter Turnout . www.elections.il.gov . Illinois State Board of Elections . 24 March 2020 . 30 May 2021 . https://web.archive.org/web/20210530142655/https://www.elections.il.gov/ElectionOperations/VoterTurnout.aspx . dead .
  6. Web site: Election Results . www.elections.il.gov . Illinois State Board of Elections . 23 March 2020 . https://web.archive.org/web/20200222093629/https://www.elections.il.gov/ElectionOperations/ElectionVoteTotals.aspx . 22 February 2020 . dead .
  7. News: 2010-02-08. Scott Lee Cohen bows out of Illinois lieutenant governor race. Christian Science Monitor. 2022-02-10. 0882-7729.
  8. https://abc7chicago.com/archive/7228066/ VIDEO: Democrats running for governor debate
  9. http://www.news-gazette.com/news/local/2009/12/30/public_media_to_air_gubernatorial_debates_in_january Public media to air gubernatorial debates in January
  10. Illinois Public Media, WSIU Host Gubernatorial Debate. WILL Press Room. University of Illinois. Urbana, Illinois. 2010-01-12. 2010-11-08.
  11. http://www3.wsiu.org/television/debates/ WSIU Prepares Voters For February 2nd Primary Election
  12. Web site: Scott Lee Cohen: The Exit Interview . 2022-03-20 . Chicago Magazine . en-US.
  13. News: Bill Brady says he will run for Governor . . 2008-11-07 . 2009-01-30 . Chicago Tribune.
  14. Web site: Lex Green for Governor of Illinois in 2010 . Electlex.com . 2010-08-21 . dead . https://web.archive.org/web/20100209011504/http://www.electlex.com/ . February 9, 2010 .
  15. Web site: Official: Scott Lee Cohen to run for governor. dead. https://web.archive.org/web/20100427081155/http://www.suntimes.com/news/metro/2196592%2Cscott-lee-cohen-governor-042410.article. April 27, 2010. April 24, 2010.
  16. News: Behind the man who could be lieutenant governor. February 7, 2010. February 8, 2010. Chicago Tribune. Bob. Secter. David. Heinzmann. David. Kidwell. https://web.archive.org/web/20100208124037/http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/elections/ct-met-lt-governor-0207-20100205,0,6077513.story. February 8, 2010. dead.
  17. News: Lt. gov. nominee: I won't drop out of race over abuse history. February 4, 2010. February 8, 2010. Abdon M.. Pallasch. Dave. McKinney. Chicago Sun-Times. https://web.archive.org/web/20100207134546/http://www.suntimes.com/news/metro/2029953,cohen-quinn-knife-quit-020410.article. February 7, 2010. dead. mdy-all.
  18. News: Source: Cohen seeking 'honorable way' to drop out. February 6, 2010. February 8, 2010. Chicago Sun-Times. Stefano. Esposito. Lynn. Sweet. Lynn Sweet. Rummana. Hussain. Mark J.. Konkol. Mark Konkol. https://web.archive.org/web/20100208073516/http://www.suntimes.com/news/elections/2031654,dick-durbin-scott-lee-cohen-020510.article. February 8, 2010. dead. mdy-all.
  19. Web site: Illinois lieutenant governor nominee Scott Lee Cohen withdraws. February 7, 2010. February 8, 2010. The Politico. Alex. Isenstadt.
  20. News: Clout St: Democrats pick Simon as Quinn's running mate . Newsblogs.chicagotribune.com . 2010-03-27 . 2010-08-21.
  21. Web site: Hynes not interested in Illinois. Blogs.suntimes.com. 2013-10-14. https://web.archive.org/web/20130920155232/http://blogs.suntimes.com/sweet/2010/02/hynes_not_interested_in_illino.html. 2013-09-20. dead.
  22. http://www.ildems.com/ltgovnominees.htm
  23. Web site: PolitiFact - Pat Quinn blasts Bill Brady for sponsoring bill on pet euthanasia in Illinois gubernatorial race. 2022-02-10. @politifact. en-US.
  24. Web site: 2010-10-01. The Blagojevich Legacy: He Presided Over a Long Slide Into Fiscal Catastrophe. 2022-02-10. NPR Illinois. en.
  25. Web site: MASSINGALE. MARY. Illinois candidates make final push. 2022-02-10. Galesburg Register Mail. en-US.
  26. Web site: 2010 Governors Race Ratings . https://web.archive.org/web/20101028141343/http://cookpolitical.com/charts/governors/raceratings_2010-10-14_12-35-09.php . dead . October 28, 2010 . . October 28, 2010.
  27. Web site: Governor Ratings . . October 28, 2010.
  28. Web site: 2010 Governor Races . . October 28, 2010.
  29. Web site: THE CRYSTAL BALL'S FINAL CALLS . 28 October 2010 . . October 28, 2010.
  30. Web site: Race Ratings Chart: Governor . . October 28, 2010 . dead . https://web.archive.org/web/20101005231611/http://www.cqpolitics.com/wmspage.cfm?docID=ratings-governor . October 5, 2010 .