| Election Name: | 2018 Idaho gubernatorial election |
| Country: | Idaho |
| Type: | presidential |
| Ongoing: | no |
| Previous Election: | 2014 Idaho gubernatorial election |
| Previous Year: | 2014 |
| Next Election: | 2022 Idaho gubernatorial election |
| Next Year: | 2022 |
| Election Date: | November 6, 2018 |
| Image1: | File:Brad Little official photo (cropped).jpg |
| Nominee1: | Brad Little |
| Party1: | Republican Party (United States) |
| Popular Vote1: | 361,661 |
| Percentage1: | 59.76% |
| Nominee2: | Paulette Jordan |
| Party2: | Democratic Party (United States) |
| Popular Vote2: | 231,081 |
| Percentage2: | 38.19% |
| Map Size: | 160px |
| Governor | |
| Before Election: | Butch Otter |
| Before Party: | Republican Party (United States) |
| After Election: | Brad Little |
| After Party: | Republican Party (United States) |
The 2018 Idaho gubernatorial election took place on November 6 to elect the next governor of Idaho. Incumbent Republican Governor Butch Otter chose not to run for a fourth term, and the state's primaries were held on May 15.[1]
Former state representative Paulette Jordan was the Democratic Party's nominee. She was the first Democratic nominee from Northern Idaho since Cecil Andrus, who was first elected governor in 1970.[2]
Jordan lost to incumbent lieutenant governor Brad Little by 21.6 percentage points, for a seventh consecutive Republican victory.
A record 605,131 votes were cast for governor in 2018, a 37.6% increase over the previous election in 2014 was 452,535 votes in 2010.
Incumbent governor Butch Otter chose not to run for reelection for a fourth term in office.
Lieutenant Governor Brad Little indicated in June 2016 that he would run for Governor, a decision described as "early" by the Idaho Statesman.[13] Little was characterized as a politician favored by members of the party establishment, including Otter and U.S. Senator Jim Risch.[14]
Representative Raúl Labrador chose to forgo reelection in the 1st district in favor of a gubernatorial candidacy. Labrador, a founding member of the Freedom Caucus, was considered the most conservative candidate in the primary.[15] As a candidate, Labrador suggested that he would be open to overruling Medicaid expansion in the event the state's 2018 ballot measure on the issue passed.[16]
Physician and Boise-area property developer Tommy Ahlquist, a first time candidate, touted his non-political background and pledged to cut regulations to encourage growth.[17] Ahlquist notably received the support of 2012 Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney.[18]
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Tommy Ahlquist | Raul Labrador | Brad Little | Lisa Marie | Lawrence Wasden* | Other | Undecided | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dan Jones & Associates | February 26 – March 15, 2018 | – | – | 21% | align=center | 25% | 17% | – | – | 6% | align=center | 31% |
| Dan Jones & Associates | November 8–15, 2017 | 619 | ± 3.9% | 14% | 17% | align=center | 21% | 4% | 4% | 5% | align=center | 36% |
| Magellan Strategies (R-Labrador) | October 11–12, 2017 | 714 | ± 3.7% | 21% | align=center | 37% | 23% | – | – | – | 19% |
*–Denotes candidates who did not enter the race.
| Date | Host | Moderator | Link | Republican | Republican | Republican | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Key: Participant Absent Not invited Invited Withdrawn | ||||||||
| Tommy Ahlquist | Raúl Labrador | Brad Little | ||||||
| 1 | Apr. 10, 2018 | Greater Idaho Falls Chamber of Commerce KIDK Compass Academy | Todd Kunz | YouTube | ||||
| 2 | Apr. 23, 2018 | Idaho Public Television | Melissa Davlin | YouTube | ||||
| 3 | May 1, 2018 | KTVB Northwest Nazarene University | Dee Sarton | YouTube | ||||
Little ultimately won the primary with 37.3% of the vote, with Labrador taking 32.6% and Ahlquist taking 26.2%. Little's campaign performed best in Boise metropolitan area and agrarian communities in the southwestern part of the state. Labrador performed best in areas in the 1st congressional district, located in the northern part of the state. Ahlquist, a Mormon, saw a better performance in eastern counties, which has a notable Latter Day Saint (LDS) presence.[19]
| Source | Ranking | As of | |
|---|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[24] | October 26, 2018 | ||
| The Washington Post[25] | November 5, 2018 | ||
| FiveThirtyEight[26] | November 5, 2018 | ||
| Rothenberg Political Report[27] | November 1, 2018 | ||
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[28] | November 5, 2018 | ||
| RealClearPolitics[29] | November 4, 2018 | ||
| Daily Kos[30] | November 5, 2018 | ||
| Fox News[31] | November 5, 2018 | ||
| Politico[32] | November 5, 2018 | ||
| Governing[33] | November 5, 2018 |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Brad Little (R) | Paulette Jordan (D) | Bev Boeck (L) | Other | Undecided | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Change Research | November 2–4, 2018 | 838 | – | align=center | 55% | 39% | 3% | 2%[34] | – | |
| Clarity Campaign Labs (D-Idaho Voices for Change Now) | August 2–5, 2018 | 826 | ± 3.2% | align=center | 36% | 28% | – | 5% | 31% | |
| Clarity Campaign Labs (D-Idaho Voices for Change Now) | July 12–15, 2018 | 1,061 | ± 2.8% | align=center | 38% | 28% | – | 7% | 26% | |
| Dan Jones & Associates | June 22 – July 9, 2018 | 606 | ± 4.0% | align=center | 43% | 31% | 5% | 8%[35] | 13% |
Little won both congressional districts.[36]
| District | Little | Jordan | Representative | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 63% | 35% | Raúl Labrador (115th Congress) | ||||
| Russ Fulcher (116th Congress) | ||||||
| 56% | 42% | Mike Simpson |