2018 Idaho gubernatorial election explained

Election Name:2018 Idaho gubernatorial election
Country:Idaho
Type:presidential
Ongoing:no
Previous Election:2014 Idaho gubernatorial election
Previous Year:2014
Next Election:2022 Idaho gubernatorial election
Next Year:2022
Election Date:November 6, 2018
Image1:File:Brad Little official photo (cropped).jpg
Nominee1:Brad Little
Party1:Republican Party (United States)
Popular Vote1:361,661
Percentage1:59.76%
Nominee2:Paulette Jordan
Party2:Democratic Party (United States)
Popular Vote2:231,081
Percentage2:38.19%
Map Size:160px
Governor
Before Election:Butch Otter
Before Party:Republican Party (United States)
After Election:Brad Little
After Party:Republican Party (United States)

The 2018 Idaho gubernatorial election took place on November 6 to elect the next governor of Idaho. Incumbent Republican Governor Butch Otter chose not to run for a fourth term, and the state's primaries were held on May 15.[1]

Former state representative Paulette Jordan was the Democratic Party's nominee. She was the first Democratic nominee from Northern Idaho since Cecil Andrus, who was first elected governor in 1970.[2]

Jordan lost to incumbent lieutenant governor Brad Little by 21.6 percentage points, for a seventh consecutive Republican victory.

A record 605,131 votes were cast for governor in 2018, a 37.6% increase over the previous election in 2014 was 452,535 votes in 2010.

Republican primary

Incumbent governor Butch Otter chose not to run for reelection for a fourth term in office.

Candidates

Declared

Withdrew

Declined

Campaign

Lieutenant Governor Brad Little indicated in June 2016 that he would run for Governor, a decision described as "early" by the Idaho Statesman.[13] Little was characterized as a politician favored by members of the party establishment, including Otter and U.S. Senator Jim Risch.[14]

Representative Raúl Labrador chose to forgo reelection in the 1st district in favor of a gubernatorial candidacy. Labrador, a founding member of the Freedom Caucus, was considered the most conservative candidate in the primary.[15] As a candidate, Labrador suggested that he would be open to overruling Medicaid expansion in the event the state's 2018 ballot measure on the issue passed.[16]

Physician and Boise-area property developer Tommy Ahlquist, a first time candidate, touted his non-political background and pledged to cut regulations to encourage growth.[17] Ahlquist notably received the support of 2012 Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney.[18]

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Tommy
Ahlquist
Raul
Labrador
Brad
Little
Lisa
Marie
Lawrence
Wasden*
OtherUndecided
Dan Jones & AssociatesFebruary 26 – March 15, 201821% align=center25%17%6% align=center31%
Dan Jones & AssociatesNovember 8–15, 2017619± 3.9%14%17% align=center21%4%4%5% align=center36%
Magellan Strategies (R-Labrador) October 11–12, 2017714± 3.7%21% align=center37%23%19%

*–Denotes candidates who did not enter the race.

Forum & Debates

2018 Idaho gubernatorial election republican primary candidate forum & debates
DateHostModeratorLinkRepublicanRepublicanRepublican
Key:
Participant  Absent  Not invited  Invited Withdrawn
Tommy AhlquistRaúl LabradorBrad Little
1Apr. 10, 2018Greater Idaho Falls Chamber of Commerce
KIDK
Compass Academy
Todd KunzYouTube
2Apr. 23, 2018Idaho Public TelevisionMelissa DavlinYouTube
3May 1, 2018KTVB
Northwest Nazarene University
Dee SartonYouTube

Results

Little ultimately won the primary with 37.3% of the vote, with Labrador taking 32.6% and Ahlquist taking 26.2%. Little's campaign performed best in Boise metropolitan area and agrarian communities in the southwestern part of the state. Labrador performed best in areas in the 1st congressional district, located in the northern part of the state. Ahlquist, a Mormon, saw a better performance in eastern counties, which has a notable Latter Day Saint (LDS) presence.[19]

Democratic primary

Candidates

Declared

Declined

Results

Independents

Candidates

Declared

General election

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report[24] October 26, 2018
The Washington Post[25] November 5, 2018
FiveThirtyEight[26] November 5, 2018
Rothenberg Political Report[27] November 1, 2018
Sabato's Crystal Ball[28] November 5, 2018
RealClearPolitics[29] November 4, 2018
Daily Kos[30] November 5, 2018
Fox News[31] November 5, 2018
Politico[32] November 5, 2018
Governing[33] November 5, 2018

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Brad
Little (R)
Paulette
Jordan (D)
Bev
Boeck (L)
OtherUndecided
Change ResearchNovember 2–4, 2018838 align=center55%39%3%2%[34]
Clarity Campaign Labs (D-Idaho Voices for Change Now)August 2–5, 2018826± 3.2% align=center36%28%5%31%
Clarity Campaign Labs (D-Idaho Voices for Change Now)July 12–15, 20181,061± 2.8% align=center38%28%7%26%
Dan Jones & Associates June 22 – July 9, 2018606± 4.0% align=center43%31%5%8%[35] 13%

Results

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

By congressional district

Little won both congressional districts.[36]

DistrictLittleJordanRepresentative
63%35%Raúl Labrador (115th Congress)
Russ Fulcher (116th Congress)
56%42%Mike Simpson

See also

External links

Debates
Official campaign websites

Notes and References

  1. Web site: 2018 State Primary Election Dates. National Conference of State. Legislatures. www.ncsl.org. May 22, 2018.
  2. Web site: Richert . Kevin . Democratic Candidates Split on Marijuana Legalization . Idaho Ed News . April 23, 2018 . February 14, 2019.
  3. News: Dentzer. Kevin. Ahlquist makes it official: In campaign for governor, he starts 97-town tour this week. Idaho Statesman. February 28, 2017. March 1, 2017.
  4. News: Russell. Betsy Z.. Idaho Rep. Raul Labrador files to run for governor in 2018. The Spokesman-Review. May 9, 2017. January 11, 2018. en.
  5. News: Richert. Kevin. Christy Perry considers run for Congress. Idaho Education News. October 26, 2017. October 30, 2017. en-US.
  6. News: Dentzer. Bill. Brad Little, Idaho's governor-in-waiting, commits to 2018 run. Idaho Statesman. June 28, 2016. July 7, 2016.
  7. Web site: Candidate Treasurer List with Mailing Addresses for 2018. Idaho Secretary of State. December 21, 2017. January 11, 2018. en.
  8. News: Berg. Sven. Fulcher announces he'll run for governor again in 2018. Idaho Statesman. August 24, 2016. August 25, 2016.
  9. News: Russell. Betsy Z.. Fulcher drops out of guv race, switches to 1st CD, winning Labrador's endorsement. The Spokesman-Review. June 15, 2017. June 16, 2017. en.
  10. News: Russell. Betsy Z.. Otter on running for 4th term: 'If I did, I'd be running as a bachelor, my wife told me'. The Spokesman-Review. October 14, 2014. July 7, 2016.
  11. News: Spence. William L.. Lori Otter says she doesn't plan to seek office. Lewiston Morning Tribune. February 6, 2016. September 15, 2016.
  12. News: Russell. Betsy Z.. Wasden to seek another term as Attorney General, not join crowds running for governor, Congress. The Spokesman-Review. 2017-09-08. en.
  13. Web site: Dentzer . Bill . 2016-06-29 . Brad Little, Idaho's governor-in-waiting, commits to 2018 run . 2023-01-11 . Idaho Statesman.
  14. Web site: Golshan . Tara . 2018-05-16 . Brad Little, the establishment pick, wins the Republican primary in Idaho's governor's race . 2024-01-11 . Vox . en.
  15. Web site: Golshan . Tara . 2018-05-14 . The super-expensive, heated governor's race you aren't paying attention to . 2024-01-11 . Vox . en.
  16. Web site: Russell . Betsy . 2018-04-26 . Idaho Rep. Labrador opens door to overturning Medicaid expansion initiative if voters pass it . 2024-01-11 . The Spokesman-Review.
  17. Web site: Moudy . Shannon . 2017-09-05 . Businessman Tommy Ahlquist says Non-Political Background Helps in Governor Race . 2024-01-11 . KLEW . en.
  18. Web site: 2017-10-25 . Mitt Romney endorses Tommy Ahlquist for Idaho governor . 2024-01-11 . AP News . en.
  19. Web site: 2018-05-16 . 'Not Pure Enough': An Ultra-Conservative State Nominates a Pragmatist for Governor . 2024-01-11 . Governing . en.
  20. News: Kruesi. Kimberlee. Idaho Democrat announces another run for governor. KTVB. November 2, 2017. November 3, 2017.
  21. News: Russell. Betsy Z.. Rep. Paulette Jordan announces she'll run for governor as a Democrat. The Spokesman-Review. December 7, 2017. December 8, 2017.
  22. Web site: Candidates flock to file for Idaho's May primary election. Russell, Betsy Z.. The Spokesman-Review. March 10, 2018. March 31, 2018.
  23. News: Brown. Nathan. Gov's race busy with more than a year till primary. Times-News. May 8, 2017. September 1, 2017.
  24. Web site: 2018 Governor Race Ratings for October 26, 2018. The Cook Political Report. en. 2021-04-10.
  25. News: The Washington Post's gubernatorial race ratings. The Washington Post. October 16, 2018.
  26. Web site: 2018 Governor Forecast FiveThirtyEight. FiveThirtyEight. October 17, 2018. en. October 17, 2018.
  27. Web site: 2018 Gubernatorial Ratings Inside Elections. insideelections.com. en. 2017-11-15.
  28. Web site: Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball » 2018 Governor. www.centerforpolitics.org. en-US. 2017-11-15.
  29. Web site: 2018 Governor Races. RealClearPolitics. October 9, 2018.
  30. Web site: 2018 Governor Race Ratings. Daily Kos. June 5, 2018.
  31. Web site: 2018 Midterm Power Ranking. Fox News. October 10, 2021.
  32. Web site: Politico Race Ratings. Politico.
  33. Web site: 2018 Governor Elections: As November Nears, More Governors' Races Become Tossups . www.governing.com . en . 2018-07-18 . October 21, 2018 . https://web.archive.org/web/20181021005343/http://www.governing.com/topics/politics/gov-governors-races-july-ratings.html . dead .
  34. Walter Bayes with 2%
  35. Walter Bayes (C) with 3%, someone else with 5%
  36. Web site: Dra 2020 .