2016 Icelandic presidential election explained

Country:	Iceland
Type:	presidential
Previous Election:	2012 Icelandic presidential election
Previous Year:	2012
Next Election:	2020 Icelandic presidential election
Next Year:	2020
Election Date:	25 June 2016
Turnout:	75.70%
Image1:	Guðni Th. Jóhannesson (2017-03-30).jpg
Candidate1:	Guðni Th. Jóhannesson
Popular Vote1:	71,356
Percentage1:	39.08%
Candidate2:	Halla Tómasdóttir
Popular Vote2:	50,995
Percentage2:	27.93%
Image4:	Andri Snaer Magnason.JPG
Candidate4:	Andri Snær Magnason
Popular Vote4:	26,037
Percentage4:	14.26%
Image5:	Bilden ar tagen vid Nordiska radets session i Oslo, 2003.jpg
Candidate5:	Davíð Oddsson
Popular Vote5:	25,108
Percentage5:	13.75%
President
Before Election:	Ólafur Ragnar Grímsson
After Election:	Guðni Th. Jóhannesson

Presidential elections were held in Iceland on 25 June 2016.^[1] President Ólafur Ragnar Grímsson, elected in 1996, stepped down after serving five consecutive terms. The history professor Guðni Th. Jóhannesson was elected after receiving a plurality of 39.1% of the vote. He took office on 1 August, as the first new president of Iceland in twenty years.

Electoral system

The President of Iceland is elected by plurality in a single round of voting.^[2] Candidates must be Icelandic citizens and at least 35 years of age on election day.^[3]

Campaign

On 1 January 2016 incumbent president Ólafur Ragnar Grímsson announced that he would not seek a sixth term in the office, wanting "to transfer the responsibilities of the president onto other shoulders".^{[1] [4] [5]} He later retracted and decided to run in April,^[6] citing political unrest after the fallout of the Panama Papers leak, which implicated Prime Minister Sigmundur Davíð Gunnlaugsson and forced him to resign after large anti-government protests.^[7] In the following ten days five other candidates suspended their campaigns, one of them after endorsing Ólafur Ragnar. Former Prime Minister Davíð Oddsson declared his candidacy on 8 May, and Ólafur Ragnar withdrew from the race the following day, stating that there was now a supply of qualified candidates. A poll showing Ólafur Ragnar with only 25% support had been published the same day.^[8]

Davíð Oddsson attacked Guðni Th. Jóhannesson in two TV-debates for allegedly having an unpatriotic view of the Cod Wars. Guðni, a historian of the Cod Wars, dismissed these charges and explained that his take on the Cod Wars was nuanced and supported by research. Davíð has also said that Guðni supported Icelandic responsibility for Icesave and is in favor of EU membership. Guðni responded, saying that his words were taken out context in both instances, and that he as President would make sure that the public would have a say in a referendum both on the resumption of EU accession negotiations and approval of any accession treaty. Furthermore, Davíð has alleged that Guðni will "undermine the Constitution" by supporting constitutional change.^[9] Halla is personally against EU membership and Andri Snær is undecided.

End-of-campaign developments

Despite an initial anti-establishment feeling, interest in the campaign waned in the last days due to the performance of the Iceland national football team in the Euro 2016. Like his predecessor, Guðni is opposed to membership of the European Union. In the final debate the day before the vote, he said the result of the Brexit vote changes "much for the better for us Icelanders", implying that the European Economic Area agreement that non-EU members Norway and Iceland have with the EU could play a more important role with the United Kingdom on board. His campaign promises included vowing to "modernise political life" and give voters a chance of direct democracy initiatives.^[10]

Candidates

Candidates had to formally declare their intention to run on or before 20 May^[11] (five weeks prior to the election) and "be proposed by not less than 1500 voters".^[3] The number of candidates in previous elections had been six at most, but the announced departure of the incumbent president prompted an unprecedented number of people to consider running. A total of 21 people publicly declared their intention to run, and around ten more were reported to be seriously considering it. Finally, nine candidates fulfilled the requirements for ballot access.^[12]

Main candidates

• Andri Snær Magnason – author and environmentalist.^[13]
• Davíð Oddsson – editor-in-chief of Morgunblaðið and former Prime Minister for the Independence Party.^{[14] [15]}
• Guðni Th. Jóhannesson – senior lecturer in history at the University of Iceland and author.^[16]
• Halla Tómasdóttir – entrepreneur and investor, co-founder of Audur Capital.^[17]
• Sturla Jónsson – truck driver, protester, former parliamentary candidate and chairman of the Sturla Jónsson party.^{[18] [19]}

Other candidates

• Ástþór Magnússon – businessman and peace activist; perennial candidate, who has run for president three times, in 1996, 2004, and 2012.^{[20] [21] [22]}
• Elísabet Jökulsdóttir – author and freelance journalist.^[23]
• Guðrún Margrét Pálsdóttir – nurse and founder of ABC Barnahjálp, an aid organization focusing on children in Asia and Africa.^[24]
• Hildur Þórðardóttir – ethnologist, author, independent publisher and healer.^[25]

Failed to get ballot access

Two candidates failed to collect enough signatures before the deadline expired.^{[26] [27]}

• Baldur Ágústsson – businessman, who also ran in 2004.^{[28] [29]} Did not submit before the deadline.
• Magnús Ingberg Jónsson – fish processing engineer and entrepreneur.^[30] Made an incomplete submission and was rejected by electoral authorities.^[31]

Suspended campaign

• Ari Jósepsson – entertainer and self-proclaimed "YouTube star". Declared in January and withdrew on 13 May due to lack of media coverage of minor candidates.^{[32] [33]}
• Benedikt Kristján Mewes – German-born dairy engineer and mailman, who wants to be the first gay president.^[34] Failed to collect enough signatures and withdrew on the last day to hand them in.^[35]
• Bæring Ólafsson – former COO of Coca-Cola Bottlers Philippines.^{[36] [37]} Declared in March and withdrew in late April.^[38] Endorsed Andri Snær Magnason.^[39]
• Guðmundur Franklín Jónsson – businessman and former chairman of the Right-Greens.^[40] Announced in March and left in April. Endorsed Ólafur Ragnar Grímsson.^[41]
• Heimir Örn Hólmarsson – electrical engineer and project manager.^[42] Announced in March and withdrew on 19 April due to the incumbent seeking reelection.^[43]
• Hrannar Pétursson – sociologist and former Human Resource- and Marketing Director for Icelandic Vodafone.^[44] Withdrew in April.^[45]
• Magnus Ingi Magnússon – restaurateur and caterer.^[46] Declared in April, withdrew on 17 May due to lack of signatures, saying he considered running for the Althingi instead.^[47]
• Ólafur Ragnar Grímsson – Incumbent President. In January, he declared that he would not seek reelection,^[4] but decided to enter the race on 18 April after political unrest in connection with the Panama Papers leak.^[6] He subsequently withdrew on 9 May stating as his reason that other qualified candidates had now entered the race.^[48]
• Vigfús Bjarni Albertsson – hospital chaplain.^[49] Announced his candidacy in March but withdrew on 18 April.^[50]
• Þorgrímur Þráinsson – author, motivational speaker, and former football player; announced he intended to run in November 2015,^{[51] [52] [53]} which he confirmed on 1 January.^[23] In April however, he said he would not go forth and implied he had not made a declaration.^[54]

Declined

• Baldur Thorhallsson – Professor of Political Science at the University of Iceland.^{[55] [56] [57]}
• Jón Gnarr – comedian and former Mayor of Reykjavík^[58]
• Katrín Jakobsdóttir – leader of the Left-Green Movement^[59]

Statement of intent

• Snorri Ásmundsson – a conceptual artist, released a statement in which he claimed he intended to run for president of both Iceland and Mexico, joining the presidential offices of the two countries.^{[60] [61]}

Timeline

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DateFormat = dd/mm/yyyyPeriod = from:16/12/2015 till:15/08/2016TimeAxis = orientation:horizontalScaleMajor = gridcolor:lightline unit:month increment:1 start:01/01/2016Legend = orientation:horizontal position:bottomBackgroundcolors = canvas:canvasBarData = barset:Candidates

PlotData= width:15 fontsize:S textcolor:black anchor:till shift:(10,-4) barset:Candidates from:11/04/2016 till:25/06/2016 color:Cand text:"Andri Snær Magnason" from:02/01/2016 till:25/06/2016 color:Cand text:"Ástþór Magnússon" from:08/05/2016 till:25/06/2016 color:Cand text:"Davíð Oddsson" from:31/12/2015 till:25/06/2016 color:Cand text:"Elísabet Jökulsdóttir" from:05/05/2016 till:25/06/2016 color:Cand text:"Guðni Th. Jóhannesson" from:22/03/2016 till:25/06/2016 color:Cand text:"Guðrún Margrét Pálsdóttir" from:07/03/2016 till:25/06/2016 color:Cand text:"Halla Tómasdóttir" from:03/01/2016 till:25/06/2016 color:Cand text:"Hildur Þórðardóttir" from:13/04/2016 till:25/06/2016 color:Cand text:"Sturla Jónsson" from:10/05/2016 till:24/05/2016 color:Susp text:"Magnús Ingberg Jónsson" from:02/05/2016 till:20/05/2016 color:Susp text:"Baldur Ágústsson" from:08/04/2016 till:20/05/2016 color:Susp text:"Benedikt Kristján Mewes" from:17/04/2016 till:17/05/2016 color:Susp text:"Magnús Ingi Magnússon" from:03/01/2016 till:13/05/2016 color:Susp text:"Ari Jósepsson" from:18/04/2016 till:09/05/2016 color:Incu text:"Ólafur Ragnar Grímsson" from:20/03/2016 till:27/04/2016 color:Susp text:"Hrannar Pétursson" from:18/03/2016 till:25/04/2016 color:Susp text:"Bæring Ólafsson" from:04/03/2016 till:19/04/2016 color:Susp text:"Heimir Örn Hólmarsson" from:06/03/2016 till:18/04/2016 color:Susp text:"Vigfús Bjarni Albertsson" from:20/03/2016 till:18/04/2016 color:Susp text:"Guðmundur Franklín Jónsson" from:01/01/2016 till:09/04/2016 color:Susp text:"Þorgrímur Þráinsson"# Arguably began in Nov.; first definite answer in Jan.; see talk page.

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TextData= pos:(110,30) textcolor:black fontsize:S text:"Jan" pos:(206,30) textcolor:black fontsize:S text:"Feb" pos:(303,30) textcolor:black fontsize:S text:"Mar" pos:(402,30) textcolor:black fontsize:S text:"Apr" pos:(493,30) textcolor:black fontsize:S text:"May" pos:(588,30) textcolor:black fontsize:S text:"Jun" pos:(685,30) textcolor:black fontsize:S text:"Jul" pos:(482,47) textcolor:red fontsize:S text:"Deadline" pos:(598,47) textcolor:black fontsize:S text:"Election"

Opinion polls

Poll	width=10%	Date	Olafur Ragnar Grímsson	Guðni Th. Jóhannesson	Andri Snær Magnason	Halla Tómasdóttir	Davið Oddsson	Others
MMR	22–26 April	52.6	–	29.4	8.8	–	9.2
Fréttablaðið	2–3 May	45	38	11	3	–	3
MMR	6–9 May	25.3	59.2	8.8	1.7	3.1	1.9
Fréttablaðið	10 May	3.2	69.0	10.7	1.0	13.7	2.4
Maskína	10–13 May	–	67.2	12.1	2.9	14.8	3.0
Félagsvísindastofnun HÍ	14 May	–	67.1	7.8	1.5	17.4	6.2
MMR	12–20 May	–	65.6	11.0	2.2	18.1	3.0
Gallup	19–25 May	–	57.2	10.9	5.4	22.0	4.6
Gallup	26 May – 3 June	–	56.7	10.6	7.5	20.3	5.3
Gallup	8–15 June	–	50.9	15.5	12.5	16.4	4.8
Félagsvísindastofnun HÍ	19–22 June	–	45.9	15.7	16.3	16.0	6.1
Gallup	20–24 June	–	44.6	16.0	18.6	16.0	4.8

Results

Guðni won the election with 39.1% of the votes.^[62] Halla received 27.9%, Andri Snær 14.3%, Davíð 13.7% and Sturla 3.5%. The turnout was 75.7%.

After voting on his birthday, Guðni said that he was satisfied he had "managed to present to the people my vision of the presidency." He said that should he win, he would first "go to France on Monday and see Iceland play England."^[10]

Notes and References

1. News: 1 January 2016 . Ólafur Ragnar mun láta af embætti forseta í sumar . . is . 1 January 2016.
2. Web site: IFES Election Guide: Iceland Pres, June 2012 . . 1 January 2016.
3. Web site: Constitution | Government Offices . Government.is . 31 March 2016.
4. News: Sigurdardottir . Ragnhildur . Jensen . Teis . 1 January 2016 . Iceland's president says he will not run for re-election . . 1 January 2016.
5. News: 1 January 2016 . Iceland's president not seeking re-election after 20 years . https://web.archive.org/web/20160101195140/https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/icelands-president-not-seeking-re-election-after-20-years/2016/01/01/a3b107c2-b0b7-11e5-b281-43c0b56f61fa_story.html . dead . 1 January 2016 . . . 1 January 2016.
6. News: 18 April 2016 . Ólafur Ragnar to run for re-election . Iceland Monitor . . 18 April 2016.
7. News: 4 April 2016 . Panama Papers: Iceland PM Sigmundur Gunnlaugsson steps down . . 18 April 2016.
8. Web site: Fylgi Ólafs Ragnars minnkar um helming. is. Market and Media Research. 9 May 2016. 28 May 2016.
9. Web site: Steinarsson. Birgir Örn. Vísir – Guðni Th. við Davíð: "Hefur þú enga sómakennd?". Visir. 28 June 2016. 29 May 2016. is.
10. News: Political Novice Elected Iceland President Amid Football Fever . . NDTV.com . 26 June 2016 . 26 June 2016.
11. Web site: Hægt að kjósa utankjörfundar á morgun. Morgunblaðið. is. 29 April 2016. 28 May 2016.
12. Web site: Staðfest að núu verða í forsetaframboði. Kjarninn. is. 25 May 2016. 26 June 2016.
13. News: Erla María Markúsdóttir . Baráttan um Bessastaði harðnar . Morgunblaðið . 21 March 2016 . is . 31 March 2016.
14. Web site: Davíð býður sig fram til forseta. Morgunblaðið. is. 8 May 2016. 28 May 2016.
15. Web site: Ólíklegt að Davíð taki fylgi af Guðna. Morgunblaðið. is. 9 May 2016. 28 May 2016.
16. Web site: Ólafur með 45% en Guðni 38%. Morgunblaðið. is. 5 May 2016. 28 May 2016.
17. News: Halla ætlar að bjóða sig fram . Morgunblaðið . is . 17 March 2016 . 31 March 2016.
18. News: Skoðanakönnun Vísis: Hvern vilt þú sjá sem næsta forseta Íslands? . Vísir . is . 2 January 2016 . 31 March 2016.
19. News: Sturla býður sig fram . Morgunblaðið . is . 13 April 2016 . 22 May 2016.
20. News: 2 January 2016. Ástþór býður sig fram til forseta. RÚV. is. 14 May 2016.
21. News: Oddsson . Hallgrímur . 12 April 2012 . Ástþór: Kom með kreditkortin til Íslands . Viðskiptablaðið. is . 15 January 2016.
22. News: Fontaine . Paul . 3 January 2016 . Ástþór Magnússon Running For President Again . The Reykjavík Grapevine . 15 January 2016.
23. News: 1 January 2016 . Tveir hafa ákveðið forsetaframboð . RÚV . 14 May 2016.
24. News: Guðrún Margrét ætlar í forsetann . Vísir . is . 22 March 2016 . 31 March 2016.
25. News: Hildur gefur kost á sér til forseta . is . Vísir . 3 January 2016 . 14 May 2016.
26. Web site: Tíu frambjóðendur skiluðu inn gögnum. RÚV. is. 21 May 2016. 28 May 2016. Ásrún Brynja Ingvarsdóttir.
27. Web site: Tíu skiluðu framboði . Morgunblaðið . 21 May 2016 . is . 21 May 2016.
28. Web site: Baldur Ágústsson tilkynnir framboð til forseta Íslands. Morgunblaðið. 11 May 2004. 28 May 2016. is.
29. Web site: Baldur býður sig fram. Morgunblaðið. is. 10 May 2016. 28 May 2016.
30. Web site: Magnús Ingberg gefur kost á sér til forseta. Morgunblaðið. is. 10 May 2016. 28 May 2016.
31. Web site: Fékk bréfið í morgun og íhugar að kæra . Morgunblaðið. 24 May 2016 . is . 25 May 2016.
32. News: Árni Björn og Ari gefa kost á sér . Morgunblaðið . is . 3 January 2016 . 31 March 2016.
33. News: Ari Hættir . Vísir . is . 13 May 2016 . 13 May 2016.
34. News: is. Vill verða fyrsti samkynhneigði forsetinn. Jóhann Óli Eiðsson. 10 April 2016. Vísir. 12 April 2016.
35. News: is. Framboðsfrestur að renna út; Benedikt hættir. 20 April 2016. RÚV. 20 May 2016.
36. Web site: Anna Marsibil Clausen . Vildi ekki bjóða sig fram gegn Ólafi Ragnari . Morgunblaðið . 18 March 2016 . is . 31 March 2016.
37. News: 18 March 2016 . Bæring Ólafsson býður sig fram til forseta . Vísir . is . 22 May 2016.
38. News: 25 April 2016 . Bæring dregur framboð sitt til baka . Morgunblaðið . is . 27 April 2016.
39. News: 12 May 2016 . Bæring enn hættur við . Vísir . is . 12 May 2016.
40. News: Guðmundur Franklín býður sig fram . Morgunblaðið . is . 20 March 2016 . 31 March 2016.
41. News: Guðmundur Franklín dregur framboðið til baka . Vísir . is . 18 April 2016 . 18 April 2016.
42. News: Heimir Örn tilkynnir framboð til forseta. . 4 March 2016 . is . 31 March 2016.
43. News: 20 April 2016 . Dregur framboð sitt til baka . Morgunblaðið . is . 27 April 2016.
44. News: Embættið ekki frátekið fyrir stjörnur . Morgunblaðið . 20 March 2016 . is . 31 March 2016.
45. News: Hrannar hættur við forsetaframboð . Vísir . 27 April 2016 . is . 28 April 2016.
46. News: 17 April 2016. Magnús Ingi býður sig fram til forseta. Morgunblaðið. is. 18 April 2016.
47. Web site: Hættur við Bessastaði, vill á þing. Morgunblaðið. is. 17 May 2016. 28 May 2016.
48. Web site: Ólafur Ragnar hættur við framboð. is. Morgunblaðið. 9 May 2016. 28 May 2016.
49. News: Vigfús Bjarni býður sig fram til forseta. RÚV . 6 March 2016 . is . 31 March 2016.
50. News: Vigfús Bjarni hættur við: Segir Ólaf Ragnar ala á ótta . Vísir . 18 April 2016 . is . 18 April 2016.
51. News: 24 November 2015 . "Er að fylgja mínu innsæi," segir Þorgrímur . RÚV . is . 13 May 2016.
52. News: 24 November 2015 . Þorgrímur fram: "Verð heiðarlegur og tala um hamingju og heilbrigði" . Vísir . is . 13 May 2016.
53. News: Fjöldi meðmælenda sem forsetaefni þurfa að skila inn ekki breyst í 64 ár . is . Vísir . 4 January 2016 . 31 March 2016.
54. News: 9 April 2016 . Þorgrímur hættur við forsetaframboð . Morgunblaðið . is . 9 April 2016.
55. Web site: Vísir – Kanna landið fyrir framboð Baldurs. 23 June 2016.
56. Web site: Baldur og Felix á Bessastaði?. 23 June 2016.
57. Web site: Majority supports a gay couple at Bessastaðir IceNews – Daily News. Hauksdóttir. G.. 23 June 2016.
58. News: 15 January 2016 . Jón Gnarr býður sig ekki fram til forseta . Fréttablaðið. is . 15 January 2016.
59. News: Hafstad . Vala . 4 January 2016 . Field Open for Up to 159 Presidential Candidates . . 15 January 2016 . 14 January 2016 . https://web.archive.org/web/20160114211922/http://icelandreview.com/news/2016/01/04/field-open-159-presidential-candidates . dead .
60. News: Grettisson . Valur . 19 February 2016 . Snorri Ásmundsson býður sig fram til forseta Íslands – og Mexíkó . DV . is . 22 February 2016.
61. News: Ásmundsson . Snorri . 20 February 2016 . President 2016 . snorriasmundsson.com . 22 February 2016 . https://archive.today/20160316082413/http://www.snorriasmundsson.com/portfolio/president-2016/ . 16 March 2016 . dead .
62. Web site: Lokatölur komnar úr öllum kjördæmum. http://wayback.vefsafn.is/wayback/20160626091249/http://www.ruv.is/frett/lokatolur-komnar-ur-ollum-kjordaemum-0. dead. 26 June 2016. 26 June 2016. 26 June 2016.