| Country: | Germany |
| Type: | parliamentary |
| Previous Election: | 1998 German federal election |
| Previous Year: | 1998 |
| Next Election: | 2005 German federal election |
| Next Year: | 2005 |
| Outgoing Members: | List of members of the 14th Bundestag |
| Elected Members: | List of members of the 15th Bundestag |
| Seats For Election: | All 603 seats in the Bundestag |
| Majority Seats: | 302 |
| Registered: | 61,432,868 1.1% |
| Turnout: | 48,582,761 (79.1%) 3.1 pp |
| Candidate1: | Gerhard Schröder |
| Party1: | Social Democratic Party of Germany |
| Last Election1: | 40.9%, 298 seats |
| Seats1: | 251 |
| Seat Change1: | 47 |
| Popular Vote1: | 18,488,668 |
| Percentage1: | 38.5% |
| Swing1: | 2.4 pp |
| Candidate2: | Edmund Stoiber |
| Party2: | CDU/CSU |
| Last Election2: | 35.1%, 245 seats |
| Seats2: | 248 |
| Seat Change2: | 3 |
| Popular Vote2: | 18,482,641 |
| Percentage2: | 38.5% |
| Swing2: | 3.4 pp |
| Candidate3: | Joschka Fischer |
| Party3: | Alliance 90/The Greens |
| Last Election3: | 6.7%, 47 seats |
| Seats3: | 55 |
| Seat Change3: | 8 |
| Popular Vote3: | 4,110,355 |
| Percentage3: | 8.6% |
| Swing3: | 1.9 pp |
| Party4: | Free Democratic Party (Germany) |
| Last Election4: | 6.2%, 43 seats |
| Seats4: | 47 |
| Seat Change4: | 4 |
| Popular Vote4: | 3,538,815 |
| Percentage4: | 7.4% |
| Swing4: | 1.2 pp |
| Candidate5: | Gabi Zimmer |
| Party5: | Party of Democratic Socialism (Germany) |
| Last Election5: | 5.1%, 36 seats |
| Seats5: | 2 |
| Seat Change5: | 34 |
| Popular Vote5: | 1,916,702 |
| Percentage5: | 4.0% |
| Swing5: | 1.1 pp |
| Map Size: | 350px |
| Government | |
| Before Election: | First Schröder cabinet |
| Before Party: | SPD–Green |
| Posttitle: | Government after election |
| After Election: | Second Schröder cabinet |
| After Party: | SPD–Greens |
Federal elections were held in Germany on 22 September 2002 to elect the members of the 15th Bundestag. Incumbent Chancellor Gerhard Schröder's centre-left "red-green" governing coalition retained a narrow majority, and the Social Democratic Party (SPD) retained their status as the largest party in the Bundestag by three seats.
Several issues dominated the campaign, with the opposition CDU/CSU attacking the government's performance on the economy which fell back into recession due to the Telecoms crash and the introduction of the euro, as well as campaigning on family values and against taxes (particularly on fuel).
In the run up to the election, the CSU/CDU held a huge lead in the opinion polls and Christian Social Union (CSU) leader Edmund Stoiber famously remarked that "...this election is like a football match where it's the second half and my team is ahead by 2–0."[1]
However, event soon overtook Stoiber and the CDU/CSU campaign. The SPD and the Greens were helped by broad support for its opposition to an invasion of Iraq, continued media attention on the CDU funding scandal and by Gerhard Schröder's personal popularity relative to the opposition's candidate for chancellor, Stoiber.
The SPD was also boosted by Schröder's swift response to the August floods in eastern Germany, as compared to Stoiber, who was on vacation and responded late to the events.[2] [3]
With Guido Westerwelle, leader of the Free Democratic Party (FDP), the FDP presented a chancellor candidate for the first time, usually a title reserved for the main election leaders of the SPD and CDU/CSU. This was met with general derision and Westerwelle was excluded from the chancellor television debate, the first one, against which he unsuccessfully sued.
The table below lists parties represented in the 14th Bundestag:
| Name | Ideology | Leadcandidate | 1998 result | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Votes (%) | Seats | |||||||
| SPD | Social Democratic Party of Germany | Social democracy | Gerhard Schröder | 40.9% | ||||
| CDU/CSU | CDU | Christian democracy | Edmund Stoiber | 35.1% | ||||
| CSU | Christian Social Union in Bavaria | 6.2% | ||||||
| Grüne | Alliance 90/The Greens | Green politics | Joschka Fischer | 6.7% | ||||
| FDP | Free Democratic Party | Classical liberalism | Guido Westerwelle | 6.2% | ||||
| PDS | Party of Democratic Socialism | Socialism | Gabi Zimmer | 5.1% | ||||
After a brief honeymoon period, the CDU/CSU overtook the SPD in opinion polling in early 1999. This dramatically reversed after the CDU donations scandal, and the SPD established a strong lead which it held throughout 2000 and 2001. The CDU/CSU retook first place at the beginning of election year, and combined with a strong FDP, the opposition held a clear lead over the SPD–Green incumbents through mid-August. Schröder's response to the floods that month buoyed the SPD's numbers, and put the CDU/CSU, FDP, and PDS on a downward trend. Polling during the final week of the campaign gave a narrow edge of the SPD, but also indicated the FDP would finish ahead of the Greens. Meanwhile, it was unclear if the PDS would win proportional seats, leaving the final outcome on a knife's edge.
| Polling firm | Fieldwork date | Sample size | SPD | Union | Grüne | FDP | PDS | Others | Lead | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2005 federal election | data-sort-value="2005-09-18" | 22 Sep 2002 | – | 38.5 | 38.5 | 8.6 | 7.4 | 4.0 | 3.0 | 0.01 | |
| Forsa | data-sort-value="2002-09-20" | 20 Sep 2002 | 2,021 | 38.5–39.5 | 37.0–38.0 | 6.5–7.5 | 7.0–8.0 | 4.0–4.5 | 0.5–2.5 | ||
| Allensbach | data-sort-value="2002-09-20" | 20 Sep 2002 | 37.5 | 37.0 | 7.5 | 9.5 | 4.5 | 4.0 | 0.5 | ||
| Allensbach | data-sort-value="2002-09-27" | 6–15 Sep 2002 | ~2,000 | 37.0 | 37.3 | 7.2 | 10.1 | 4.4 | 4.0 | 0.3 | |
| Emnid | data-sort-value="2002-09-14" | 14 Sep 2002 | 3,518 | 39 | 37 | 7 | 8 | 5 | 4 | 2 | |
| Forsa | data-sort-value="2002-09-18" | 9–14 Sep 2002 | 3,006 | 40 | 38 | 7 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 2 | |
| Forschungsgruppe Wahlen | data-sort-value="2002-09-13" | 9–12 Sep 2002 | 1,326 | 40.0 | 37.0 | 7.0 | 7.5 | 4.5 | 4.0 | 3.0 | |
| Infratest dimap | data-sort-value="2002-09-13" | 9–12 Sep 2002 | 2,000 | 38.5 | 36.0 | 8.0 | 8.5 | 4.7 | 4.3 | 2.5 |
Although most opposition parties gained seats, and the result was in doubt for most of the election night, the governing coalition retained a narrow majority. In particular, the SPD was able to partially offset declines in their vote share in the West with an increase in the East, with the PDS falling below both the 5% threshold and the 3-seat threshold, either of which is required to qualify a party for top-up seats. Consequently, the PDS held only two directly elected seats.
Second vote (Zweitstimme, or votes for party list)
| State results in % | SPD | CDU/CSU | GRÜNE | FDP | PDS | all others |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 33.5 | 42.8 | 11.4 | 7.8 | 1.0 | 3.5 | |
| 26.1 | 58.6 | 7.6 | 4.5 | 0.7 | 2.5 | |
| 36.6 | 25.9 | 14.6 | 6.6 | 11.4 | 4.9 | |
| 46.4 | 22.3 | 4.5 | 5.8 | 17.2 | 3.8 | |
| 48.6 | 24.6 | 15.0 | 6.7 | 2.2 | 2.9 | |
| 42.0 | 28.1 | 16.2 | 6.8 | 2.1 | 4.8 | |
| 39.7 | 37.1 | 10.7 | 8.2 | 1.3 | 3.0 | |
| 41.7 | 30.3 | 3.5 | 5.4 | 16.3 | 2.8 | |
| 47.8 | 34.5 | 7.3 | 7.1 | 1.0 | 2.3 | |
| 43.0 | 35.1 | 8.9 | 9.4 | 1.2 | 2.4 | |
| 38.2 | 40.3 | 7.9 | 9.3 | 1.0 | 3.3 | |
| 46.0 | 35.0 | 7.6 | 6.4 | 1.4 | 3.6 | |
| 33.3 | 33.6 | 4.6 | 7.3 | 16.2 | 4.9 | |
| 43.2 | 29.0 | 3.4 | 7.6 | 14.4 | 2.4 | |
| 42.9 | 36.0 | 9.4 | 8.0 | 1.3 | 2.4 | |
| 39.9 | 29.4 | 4.3 | 5.9 | 17.0 | 3.5 | |
| State | Total seats | Seats won | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPD | CDU | CSU | PDS | Grüne | |||
| Baden-Württemberg | 37 | 7 | 30 | ||||
| Bavaria | 44 | 1 | 43 | ||||
| Berlin | 12 | 9 | 2 | 1 | |||
| Brandenburg | 10 | 10 | |||||
| Bremen | 2 | 2 | |||||
| Hamburg | 6 | 6 | |||||
| Hesse | 21 | 17 | 4 | ||||
| Lower Saxony | 29 | 25 | 4 | ||||
| Mecklenburg-Vorpommern | 7 | 5 | 2 | ||||
| North Rhine-Westphalia | 64 | 45 | 19 | ||||
| Rhineland-Palatinate | 15 | 7 | 8 | ||||
| Saarland | 4 | 4 | |||||
| Saxony | 17 | 4 | 13 | ||||
| Saxony-Anhalt | 10 | 10 | |||||
| Schleswig-Holstein | 11 | 10 | 1 | ||||
| Thuringia | 10 | 9 | 1 | ||||
| Total | 299 | 171 | 82 | 43 | 2 | 1 | |
| State | Total seats | Seats won | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CDU | SPD | Grüne | FDP | CSU | |||
| Baden-Württemberg | 39 | 4 | 20 | 9 | 6 | ||
| Bavaria | 51 | 25 | 7 | 4 | 15 | ||
| Berlin | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | |||
| Brandenburg | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | |||
| Bremen | 2 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| Hamburg | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |||
| Hesse | 23 | 13 | 1 | 5 | 4 | ||
| Lower Saxony | 34 | 18 | 6 | 5 | 5 | ||
| Mecklenburg-Vorpommern | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||||
| North Rhine-Westphalia | 70 | 30 | 15 | 12 | 13 | ||
| Rhineland-Palatinate | 15 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 3 | ||
| Saarland | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | |||
| Saxony | 12 | 8 | 2 | 2 | |||
| Saxony-Anhalt | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | |||
| Schleswig-Holstein | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | |||
| Thuringia | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | |||
| Total | 304 | 108 | 80 | 54 | 47 | 15 | |
The coalition between the SPD and the Greens continued in government, with Schröder as chancellor. However, due to the slim majority in the Bundestag, the governing coalition was not stable.