Natural gas in Russia explained

In 2021 Russia was the world's second-largest producer of natural gas, producing an estimated 701 billion cubic meters (bcm) of gas a year, and the world's largest natural gas exporter, shipping an estimated 250 bcm a year. In 2022 the export market collapsed, following the Russian invasion of Ukraine and Russia reducing exports after countries refused to pay in rubles.

According to The World Factbook estimate, the country also has the largest proven reserves (47 trillion cubic meters (tcm)). BP estimates put Russia with 33 tcm.[1] [2] Additionally, Russia is likely to have the largest volume of undiscovered natural gas deposits, an additional 6.7 tcm, according to 2011 US Geological Survey estimations.[3] Russia consumes approximately 460 bcm a year.[4] Flaring is a problem in Russia.[5]

Subsidies

There is a long history of subsidy of natural gas in Russia. Subsidies for natural gas has been one of the reasons for the limited growth of renewable energy in the country.[6] However, it is difficult to estimate the extent of subsidy, as there is no benchmark price.[7] Often netback calculations have been used,[8] but there are arguments against their validity in determining the size of domestic subsidies.

Gazprom has had its gas sale price to domestic and industrial customers regulated by the Russian government since 1991, sometimes close to the operational cost, meaning that it needs to obtain high export sale values to generate a profit to subsidise the poor domestic return.[9]

The IEA estimated 2021 gas subsidies at 42 billion USD, the largest in the world (it also estimated electricity subsidies as the largest).[10] Between 2014 and 2021 domestic gas prices in Russia increased annually by between 2% and 7%, in 2022 prices rose 8.5% with a 2023 price rise of a further 8%.[11]

Consumption

In 2022 over 40% of electricity was generated by gas.[12]

Automotive

The use of natural gas cars in Russia is encouraged by the government.[13] Aftermarket conversion kits are sold by companies like Italgas, while some GAZ Group vehicles are sold with natural gas systems.[13] As of late 2016, Gazprom has a network of 254 filling stations in the country,[14] with plans to reach 500 stations by 2020.[15] The NEFAZ bus manufacturing company makes gas-powered buses using Daimler engines.[16] A natural gas variant of the Lada Vesta was introduced in 2017.[17]

Flaring

Russia flares more than any other country.[5] The level of flaring increased in 2022 following the loss of the export pipelines to the EU to 1.6 bcm per annum, 9,000 tonnes of CO2 being emitted daily.[18]

Exports

The EU

The European Union in 2020 received over 50% of its natural gas from Russia, with around 40% in 2021 (140 bcm).[19] In 2022, following the invasion of Ukraine Russia began to restrict gas supply to the EU to punish countries for supporting Ukraine.[20] The supply of gas has not been made a subject of EU sanctions,[20] although the payment system was restricted. Germany, previously the main purchaser of Russian gas, reduced, then ceased imports by December 2022, as had most of the other EU countries. 2022 saw the EU buy just 60 bcm of gas from Russia.[19]

Production of Russian gas in 2022 was 20% lower than in 2021 and it is likely to be years before Russia will find alternative buyers for the lost 120 bcm EU export market.[21]

The EU aims to end gas imports from Russia by 2027, including LNG.[22]

China

On 21 May 2014, Russia and China announced an agreement between state controlled gas companies Gazprom and China National Petroleum Corporation after a decade of negotiations. Under the agreement, Russia will supply China 38bcm of natural gas each year for 30 years, starting in 2018. Both countries will be responsible for building new infrastructure to make the transport possible. Russia will spend about US$55 billion to build a pipeline from Siberia to Vladivostok, while China will spend $20 billion on infrastructure within its borders. The Kovykta and Chayanda gas fields which will supply the majority of the natural gas are currently largely undeveloped.

Tentative agreements had been reached several times since 2005, but each time final negotiations broke down over price. The agreed upon price was not disclosed, but those familiar with the situation said getting a lower price than European buyers was a key demand of China in the negotiations. However, Russian representatives said the price would fluctuate based on the market price of oil, making the deal closer to what Russia had wanted than to what China had been asking for. The total value of the deal was estimated at US$400 billion.[23] It will increase Russian exports to countries not part of the former Soviet Union by 25% and make China the country's 2nd largest customer, after Germany.[24]

The agreement was reached as Chinese and Russian leaders met to discuss greater cooperation in Asia without involvement of Western powers. It was seen as an important political and economic victory for Russian President Vladimir Putin. It allows Russia to diversify its natural business outside of Europe and weakens the force of economic sanctions placed by the West in the aftermath of the Russian annexation of Crimea. More generally, it allows Russia to reduce its isolation due to the crisis in Ukraine.[25] For China, the deal helps lessen its dependence on coal to produce electric power, using a cleaner method of electricity generation through natural gas. It also helps meet the country's growing demand for natural gas.

The Power of Siberia pipeline, was commissioned in December 2019. Carrying a maximum of 61 bcm per annum, it runs 3968km (2,466miles) to the Chinese border, where it then connect to a 3371km (2,095miles) pipeline to distribute the gas in China.

A new pipeline Power of Siberia 2, with a 50 bcm annual capacity that will run 6700km (4,200miles) across Russia, Mongolia and China is proposed for construction 2024-2029.[26]

Turkey

Much natural gas in Turkey is imported from Russia through pipelines under the Black Sea.[27]

Disputes with Ukraine

See main article: Russia–Ukraine gas disputes.

2005-2009

Since 2005, the Russian gas supplier Gazprom and the Ukrainian oil and gas company Naftogaz have been involved in a number of disputes. These disputes have grown beyond simple business disputes into transnational political issues that threaten natural gas supplies in numerous European countries dependent on natural gas imports from Russian suppliers, which are transported through Ukraine.[28]

During 2005, Russia claimed Ukraine was not paying for gas, but diverting that which was intended to be exported to the EU from the pipelines. Ukrainian officials at first denied the accusation, but later Naftogaz admitted that natural gas intended for other European countries was retained and used for domestic needs.[29] [30] The dispute reached a peak on 1 January 2006, when Russia cut off all gas supplies passing through Ukrainian territory.[31] On 4 January 2006, a preliminary agreement between Russia and Ukraine was achieved, and the supply was restored. The situation calmed until October 2007 when new disputes began over Ukrainian gas debts. This led to reduction of gas supplies in March 2008. During the last months of 2008, relations once again became tense when Ukraine and Russia could not agree on the debts owed by Ukraine.

In January 2009, this disagreement resulted in supply disruptions in many European nations, with eighteen European countries reporting major drops in or complete cut-offs of their gas supplies transported through Ukraine from Russia.[32] [33] In September 2009 officials from both countries stated they felt the situation was under control and that there would be no more conflicts over the topic,[34] [35] at least until the Ukrainian 2010 presidential elections.[36] However, in October 2009, another disagreement arose about the amount of gas Ukraine would import from Russia in 2010. Ukraine intended to import less gas in 2010 as a result of reduced industry needs because of its economic recession; however, Gazprom insisted that Ukraine fulfill its contractual obligations and purchase the previously agreed upon quantities of gas.[37]

On 8 June 2010, a Stockholm court of arbitration ruled Naftogaz of Ukraine must return 12.1e9m3 of gas to RosUkrEnergo, a Swiss-based company in which Gazprom controls a 50% stake. Russia accused the Ukrainian side of siphoning gas from pipelines passing through Ukraine in 2009.[38] [39] Several high-ranking Ukrainian officials stated the return "would not be quick".[40]

2014

In 2014, Russia seized Crimea and took assets belonging to Ukraine, with no compensation paid. In 2023, A court in The Hague ordered Russia to pay US$5 billion in compensation to Naftogaz.[41]

Effect on Russian natural gas during war with Ukraine

See also: 2022–2023 Russia–European Union gas dispute. The 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine, as the latest part of the Russo-Ukrainian War, caused the weaponising of natural gas, which Russia tried to use to stop Western European countries from providing support to Ukraine. Threatening and then actually restricting gas supplies to Western Europe resulted in Nord Stream 1 deliveries being halted indefinitely,[42] [43] with Nord Stream 2 having had its commissioning put on hold by Germany following Russia's recognition of the Ukrainian separatist regions of the Donetsk People's Republic and the Luhansk People's Republic as independent,[44] was followed by the September 26 2022 Nord Stream pipeline sabotage.

Sanctions on Russian banks make it hard for Gazprom to receive money from international sales, which in 2022 fell 45.5% to 100.9bcm.[45]

Gazprom published a loss during the second half of 2022 of 1.3 trillion roubles ($17.3 billion) after losing 75% of its export sales.[11]

As of 2024, the Urengoy–Pomary–Uzhhorod pipeline in Sudzha was the last remaining point through which natural gas flowed from Russia to Europe via Ukraine.[46]

Notes and References

  1. Web site: Table 3.2 Natural gas proven reserves by country . Opec.org . 2014-05-22 . https://web.archive.org/web/20180227183441/http://www.opec.org/library/Annual%20Statistical%20Bulletin/interactive/current/FileZ/XL/T32.HTM . 2018-02-27 . dead .
  2. http://www.bp.com/en/global/corporate/about-bp/statistical-review-of-world-energy-2013.html BP Statistical Review of World Energy
  3. Web site: Christopher J. Schenk. An Estimate of Undiscovered Conventional Oil and Gas Resources of the World. 2012. US Geological Survey.
  4. Web site: The World Factbook: Russia. CIA. 21 May 2014.
  5. Global Gas Flaring Tracker Report . March 2023.
  6. Book: Russian Renewable Energy: The Potential for International Cooperation. Overland. Indra. Kjaernet. Heidi. Ashgate. 2009.
  7. Overland. Indra. Kutschera. Hilde. 2011. Pricing Pain: Social Discontent and Political Willpower in Russia's Gas Sector. Europe-Asia Studies. 63. 2. 311–331. ResearchGate. 10.1080/09668136.2011.547700. 11250/2442561 . free. free.
  8. Lunden. Lars Petter. Fjaertoft. Daniel. Overland. Indra. Prachakova. Alesia. 2012. Gazprom vs. other Russian gas producers: The evolution of the Russian gas sector. Energy Policy. 61. 663–670. ResearchGate. 10.1016/j.enpol.2013.06.055. free. 11250/2442564. free.
  9. Web site: Domestic Gas Prices in Russia - Towards Export Netback? . November 2011.
  10. Web site: Energy subsidies – Topics . 2023-09-04 . IEA . en-GB.
  11. Web site: Russia approves big hikes in Gazprom's domestic gas prices . 18 July 2023.
  12. Web site: 2022-03-28 . Russian Federation Electricity Transition . 2023-09-04 . Ember . en-US.
  13. News: Kramer. Andrew E.. Russia Skips Hybrids in Push for Natural Gas Cars. 25 June 2017. The New York Times. 11 April 2013.
  14. Web site: NGV fuel. Gazprom.com. 25 June 2017. en.
  15. Web site: О сети. gazprom-agnks.ru. 25 June 2017. ru.
  16. News: Газовые автобусы НЕФАЗ будут обслуживать Чемпионат мира по футболу в Екатеринбурге. 25 June 2017. Национальная Газомоторная Ассоциация.
  17. News: Метановая Лада Веста стала мелкосерийной. 25 June 2017. autoreview.ru.
  18. News: Russia burns gas into the atmosphere while cutting supplies to EU . Reuters . 26 August 2022.
  19. Web site: The need for action . 5 September 2023.
  20. Web site: EU gas supply: When Russia went into self-destruct mode . . 31 August 2023.
  21. Web site: Gazprom in Search of New Natural Gas Markets After Exports to Europe Plummeted in 2022 . 11 January 2022.
  22. Web site: 2023-08-30 . The EU can manage without Russian liquified natural gas . 2023-09-04 . Bruegel The Brussels-based economic think tank . en.
  23. News: China and Russia Reach 30-Year Gas Deal. 21 May 2014. Jane Perlez. New York Times. 21 May 2014.
  24. News: Russia and China Agree on Long-Sought Natural Gas Supply Contract. Brain Speglee. Wayne Ma. Gregory L. White. May 21, 2014. May 21, 2014.
  25. News: China signs 30-year deal for Russian natural gas. AP. Washington Post. 21 May 2014. https://web.archive.org/web/20140522195501/http://www.washingtonpost.com/business/gazprom-china-russia-sign-30-year-gas-deal/2014/05/21/042442f0-e0cf-11e3-9442-54189bf1a809_story.html. dead. 22 May 2014. 21 May 2014.
  26. Web site: Russia announces progress with China on the Power of Siberia 2 gas pipeline . 23 March 2023.
  27. Web site: Turkey-Russia Energy Cooperation on Natural Gas . 2023-09-08 . en-US.
  28. News: 1 August 2009 . EU reaches gas deal with Ukraine . BBC News . 1 August 2009.
  29. News: Ukraine gas row hits EU supplies. BBC. 1 January 2006. 16 December 2008.
  30. News: Ukraine 'stealing Europe's gas'. BBC. 2 January 2006. 16 December 2008.
  31. News: Ukraine takes extra Russian gas. BBC. 24 January 2006. 16 December 2008.
  32. News: 18 countries affected by Russia-Ukraine gas row. Reuters. 7 January 2009. 7 January 2009.
  33. Leo. Cendrowicz . 9 January 2009 . Russia-Europe Gas Spat Ends—For Now . https://web.archive.org/web/20090117132153/http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,1870597,00.html . dead . January 17, 2009 . Time . 9 January 2009.
  34. News: Ukraine says has good winter gas stocks for Europe. Reuters. 7 September 2009. 7 September 2009.
  35. News: There are no controversies on gas issues between Ukraine and Russia. UNIAN. 8 September 2009. 8 September 2009.
  36. News: Gazprom sees political risk to Ukraine gas payments. Reuters. 12 September 2009. 12 September 2009.
  37. News: Ukraine, Russia's Gazprom disagree on 2010 imports. Kyiv Post. 8 October 2009. 8 October 2009.
  38. Web site: Ukraine to remain without gas because of RosUkrEnergo? | Events . Mignews.com.ua . 2014-05-22.
  39. Web site: Бойко обещает как-то удовлетворить Фирташа . 12 June 2010 . Minprom.ua . 2014-05-22.
  40. Web site: Бойко объяснил Фирташу, что газ он быстро не получит | Украинская правда . Pravda.com.ua . 2010-06-13 . 2014-05-22.
  41. Web site: Ukraine's Naftogaz declares victory over Russia in $5B court battle . 13 April 2023.
  42. News: Cooban . Anna . 31 August 2022 . Russia cuts more gas supplies to Europe as inflation hits another record . CNN.
  43. News: 2022-09-02 . Gazprom: Nord Stream 1 gas to stay shut until fault fixed, "workshop conditions needed" . en . .
  44. News: 2022-02-22 . Germany freezes Nord Stream 2 gas project as Ukraine crisis deepens. 2023-03-08.
  45. News: Russian Gas Exports Outside Ex-Soviet States Fell 46 Percent In 2022, Gazprom Figures Show . Radiofreeeurope/Radioliberty . 2 January 2023.
  46. News: Is it the end for Russian gas supplies to Europe via Ukraine? . Reuters . 12 August 2024.