Future-oriented technology analysis explained

Future-oriented technology analysis (FTA) is a collective term from futures studies for analyzing future technology and its consequences.^{[1] [2]} It includes technology intelligence, technology forecasting, technology roadmapping, technology assessment, and technology foresight. Technology Futures Analysis or Technology Future Analysis (TFA) is a synonym.^{[1] [3]}

Future-oriented technology analysis shares common methods with horizon scanning.^{[4] [5]}

Definitions

Year	Definition
2004	Technology futures analysis is "any process to produce judgments about emerging technology characteristics, development pathways, and potential impacts of a technology in the future. ... [TFA] encompasses the broad technology foresight and assessment studies of the public sector and the technology forecasting and intelligence studies in private industry."^[6]
2013	Future-oriented technology analysis is "an umbrella term to denote several decision-preparatory tools - (technology) foresight, forecasting and technology assessment - and thus it is not a discipline with solid, widely accepted theoretical foundations."^[7]

Methods

Methods and their families^[8]

Method	Family
Agent based modeling	Modeling and simulation
	Valuing/decision/economic
	Descriptive and matrices
	Monitoring and intelligence, Statistics
	Creativity
	Modeling and simulation, Statistics
	Expert Opinion
	Valuing/decision/economic
	Descriptive and matrices, Valuing/decision/economic
	Descriptive and matrices, Valuing/decision/economic
	Descriptive and matrices
	Scenarios
	Descriptive and matrices
	Descriptive and matrices, Valuing/decision/economic
	Descriptive and matrices, Modeling and simulation
	Modeling and simulation
	Descriptive and matrices, Modeling and simulation
	Creativity

References

1. Filip . F. G. . Dragomirescu . H. . Predescu . R. . Ilie . R. . IT tools for foresight studies . Studies in Informatics and Control . 2004 . 13 . 161-168 .
2. Technology futures analysis: Toward integration of the field and new methods . Technological Forecasting and Social Change . 1 March 2004 . 71 . 3 . 287–303 . 10.1016/j.techfore.2003.11.004 . 18904868 . en . 0040-1625.
3. Sánchez-Torres . J. M. . Miles . I. . The role of future-oriented technology analysis in e-Government: a systematic review . European Journal of Futures Research . 16 December 2017 . 5 . 1 . 15 . 10.1007/s40309-017-0131-7 . 9744177 . en . 2195-2248. free .
4. Eerola . A. . Miles . I. . Methods and tools contributing to FTA: A knowledge-based perspective . Futures . 1 April 2011 . 43 . 3 . 265–278 . 10.1016/j.futures.2010.11.005 . en . 0016-3287.
5. Tagiew . Rustam . Witzler . Sebastian . Portier . Martin . Towards Assessing Digital Technologies for the Future of Mobility . 14 July 2022 . Social Science Research Network . 4151745 . en.
6. Technology futures analysis: Toward integration of the field and new methods . Technological Forecasting and Social Change . 1 March 2004 . 71 . 3 . 287–303 . 10.1016/j.techfore.2003.11.004 . 18904868 . en . 0040-1625.
7. Cagnin . Cristiano . Havas . Attila . Saritas . Ozcan . Future-oriented technology analysis: Its potential to address disruptive transformations . Technological Forecasting and Social Change . 1 March 2013 . 80 . 3 . 379–385 . 10.1016/j.techfore.2012.10.001 . 60530892 . en . 0040-1625.
8. Technology futures analysis: Toward integration of the field and new methods . Technological Forecasting and Social Change . 1 March 2004 . 71 . 3 . 287–303 . 10.1016/j.techfore.2003.11.004 . 18904868 . en . 0040-1625.