Football Outsiders Explained
| Football Outsiders |
| Language: | English |
| Author: | Aaron Schatz |
Football Outsiders (FO) was a website started in July 2003 which focused on advanced statistical analysis of the National Football League (NFL). The site was run by a staff of regular writers, who produced a series of weekly columns using both the site's in-house statistics and their personal analyses of NFL games.
In 2005 and 2006, the site partnered with FOXSports.com to cross-publish many of the Outsiders' regular features, including power rankings based on a "weighted" version of the DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average) statistic. In 2007, Football Outsiders content appeared on FOXSports.com (in a reduced capacity) along with AOL Sports and ESPN.com. Since 2008, the site has partnered exclusively with ESPN and provides mostly ESPN Insider content. In 2009, Football Outsiders began analyzing college football using similar statistical principles.
As of 2023, after financial mismanagement, the site seems to have been abandoned by its owners. As of September 1, 2023, the website was no longer accessible. DVOA statistics have been moved to FTN Fantasy, which is owned by FTN Network. Aaron Schatz joined FTN Network as Chief Analytics Officer on August 29, 2023.[1]
History
Football Outsiders was launched in August 2003 by Aaron Schatz, with two regular columns, one of which used an early version of the proprietary DVOA statistic. The original purpose of the site was to disprove a statement by Boston Globe reporter Ron Borges that the 2002 New England Patriots failed to make the postseason because they could not establish the run. Over the course of time, the site added more writers, and hosted Gregg Easterbrook for part of 2003.
Between 2004 and 2005, the site introduced new statistics such as Defense-adjusted Points Above Replacement (DPAR, later Defense-adjusted Yards Above Replacement, DYAR) and Adjusted Line Yards (ALY). In 2005, the site began to cross-publish many of its columns on FOXsports.com. In 2005, Football Outsiders also took over publication of Pro Football Prospectus, a book giving a preview of the upcoming NFL season. In 2009, the annual was renamed Football Outsiders Almanac.[2]
Currently, the site has incorporated the 1981–2022 NFL seasons into their statistics.
Key Metrics
Football Outsiders has devised a series of proprietary formulas to calculate different advanced metrics.
DVOA
DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average) calculates a team's success based on the down-and-distance of each play during the season, then calculates how much more or less successful each team is compared to the league average. According to Football Outsiders, DVOA "breaks down every single play of the NFL season to see how much success offensive players achieved in each specific situation compared to the league average in that situation, adjusted for the strength of the opponent. ... Football has one objective -- to get to the end zone -- and two ways to achieve that, by gaining yards and getting first downs. These two goals need to be balanced to determine a player's value or a team's performance."[3]
There is a separate DVOA measurement for special teams, which "compare[s] each kick or punt to the league average for based on the point value of field position at the position of each kick, catch, and return."[4]
DYAR
DYAR (Defense-adjusted Yards Above Replacement) calculates each player's cumulative value above or below a "replacement-level" alternative. DYAR differs from DVOA in calculating a player's total value through the course of a year, and not on a play-for-play rate. States Football Outsiders, "DVOA, by virtue of being a percentage or rate statistic, doesn’t take into account the cumulative value of having a player producing at a league-median level over the course of an above-average number of plays. By definition, a median level of performance is better than that provided by half of the league and the ability to maintain that level of performance while carrying a heavy work load is very valuable indeed."[5]
Adjusted Line Yards
Adjusted Line Yards (ALY) "differentiate[s] between the contribution of the running back and the contribution of the offensive line." ALY attempts to "separate the effect that the running back has on a particular play from the effect of the offensive line (and other offensive blockers) and the effect of the defense. ... Yardage ends up falling into roughly the following combinations: Losses, 0-4 yards, 5-10 yards, and 11+ yards. In general, the offensive line is 20% more responsible for lost yardage than it is for yardage gained up to four yards, but 50% less responsible for yardage gained from 5-10 yards, and not responsible for yardage past that. Thus, the creation of Adjusted Line Yards."[6]
Drive Stats
Drive Stats calculate a team's average success rate on a possession-by-possession basis: "[E]ach team's total number of drives as well as average yards per drive, points per drive, touchdowns per drive, punts per drive, and turnovers per drive, interceptions per drive, and fumbles lost per drive. LOS/Drive represents average starting field position (line of scrimmage) per drive from the offensive point of view. Drive stats are given for offense and defense, with NET representing simply offense minus defense."[7]
Pythagorean projection
See main article: Pythagorean expectation. Another metric Football Outsiders uses is Pythagorean projection, which estimates wins in a season by a formula originally conceived by baseball analyst Bill James, that takes the square of team points, and divides it by the sum of the squares of team points scored and allowed.
The 2011 edition of Football Outsiders Almanac[8] states, "From 1988 through 2004, 11 of 16 Super Bowls were won by the team that led the NFL in Pythagorean wins, while only seven were won by the team with the most actual victories. Super Bowl champions that led the league in Pythagorean wins but not actual wins include the 2004 Patriots, 2000 Ravens, 1999 Rams and 1997 Broncos."
Although Football Outsiders Almanac acknowledges that the formula had been less-successful in picking Super Bowl participants from 2005-2008, it reasserted itself in 2009 and 2010.
Furthermore, "[t]he Pythagorean projection is also still a valuable predictor of year-to-year improvement. Teams that win a minimum of one full game more than their Pythagorean projection tend to regress the following year; teams that win a minimum of one full game less than their Pythagorean projection tend to improve the following year, particularly if they were at or above .500 despite their underachieving. For example, the 2008 New Orleans Saints went 8-8 despite 9.5 Pythagorean wins, hinting at the improvement that came with the next year's championship season."
DVOA results
Each year, Football Outsiders calculates the best and worst teams, per play, with the DVOA metric (see above). Below is a list of the highest- and lowest-rated teams in the league in each year from 1985-2019.
Since Football Outsiders shut down in 2023, DVOA stats have been moved to FTN Fantasy; a historical archive of DVOA rankings dating back to 1979 is available.[9]
| Season | Best DVOA rating | DVOA | Worst DVOA rating | DVOA | Notes |
|---|
| | 45.5% | | -35.3% | Kansas City Chiefs won Super Bowl LVIII; Panthers finished with worst record, but #1 pick was owned by Chicago Bears[10] |
| | 38.9% | | -29.3% | Kansas City Chiefs won Super Bowl LVII, Chicago Bears got #1 pick.[11] |
| | 29.3% | | -31.4% | Los Angeles Rams won Super Bowl LVI, Jacksonville Jaguars got #1 pick[12] |
| | 32.0% | | -31.1% | Tampa Bay Buccaneers won Super Bowl LV[13] |
| | 38.5% | | -37.4% | Kansas City Chiefs won Super Bowl LIV, Cincinnati Bengals got #1 pick.[14] |
| | 34.8% | | -37.6% | New England Patriots won Super Bowl LIII.[15] |
| | 33.0% | | -28.7% | Philadelphia Eagles won Super Bowl LII, Cleveland Browns got #1 pick[16] |
| | 31.0% | | -33.8% | New England Patriots won Super Bowl LI[17] |
| Seattle Seahawks | 35.4% | | -31.2% | Denver Broncos won Super Bowl, Tennessee Titans got #1 pick.[18] |
| Denver Broncos | 32.6% | | -34.2% | New England Patriots won Super Bowl, Tampa Bay Buccaneers got #1 pick.[19] |
| Seattle Seahawks | 35.8% | | -37.5% | Houston Texans received #1 overall pick in 2014 draft.[20] |
| Denver Broncos | 35.6% | | -40.7% | Baltimore Ravens won Super Bowl.[21] |
| New Orleans Saints | 28.3% | | -36.4% | New York Giants won Super Bowl.[22] |
| New England Patriots | 45.7% | | -41.2% | Green Bay won Super Bowl[23] |
| | 26.7% | | -48.3% | New Orleans Saints won Super Bowl, St. Louis Rams got - 1 overall pick
[24] |
| 2008 | | 28.9% | | -43.9% | Pittsburgh Steelers won Super Bowl [25] |
| New England Patriots | 52.3% | | -35.4% | New York Giants won Super Bowl, Miami Dolphins got - 1 pick
[26] |
| | 29.7% | | -31.5% | Indianapolis Colts won Super Bowl [27] |
| 2005 | | 30.7% | | -49.7% | Pittsburgh Steelers won Super Bowl, Houston Texans got - 1 pick
[28] |
| 2004 | | 35.9% | | -42.0% | [29] |
| 2003 | | 27.5% | | -41.3% | New England Patriots won Super Bowl, San Diego Chargers got - 1 pick
[30] |
| 2002 | | 30.7% | | -39.9% | Cincinnati Bengals got - 1 overall pick
[31] |
| 2001 | | 31.2% | | -24.4% | N.E. Patriots won Super Bowl, Panthers had - 2 pick
(to expansion Houston Texans)[32] |
| 2000 | Tennessee Titans | 31.2% | | -39.4% | Baltimore Ravens won Super Bowl, San Diego Chargers got - 1 pick
[33] |
| 1999 | | 36.4% | | -41.0% | [34] |
| 1998 | Denver Broncos | 34.9% | | -35.0% | Philadelphia had worst record, got - 2 pick
after expansion Cleveland Browns[35] |
| 1997 | | 33.9% | | -31.1% | Denver Broncos won Super Bowl, Indianapolis Colts got - 1 pick
[36] |
| 1996 | Green Bay Packers | 39.7% | | -30.9% | [37] |
| San Francisco 49ers | 39.0% | | -33.9% | Dallas Cowboys won Super Bowl, New York Jets got - 1 pick
[38] |
| 1994 | Dallas Cowboys | 33.9% | Houston Oilers | -27.9% | San Francisco 49ers won Super Bowl, Oilers picked #3 behind expansion Carolina/Jacksonville. |
| 1993 | San Francisco 49ers | 27.8% | | -36.6% | Dallas Cowboys won Super Bowl, Cincinnati Bengals got - 1 overall pick
[39] |
| 1992 | Dallas Cowboys | 35.3% | New England Patriots | -42.5% | [40] |
| 1991 | Washington Redskins | 49.5% | Indianapolis Colts | -49.5% | [41] |
| 1990 | New York Giants | 29.1% | New England Patriots | -41.0% | [42] |
| 1989 | San Francisco 49ers | 34.9% | Dallas Cowboys | -32.5% | Dallas had the league's worst record, but forfeited their first round pick [43] |
| 1988 | San Francisco 49ers | 23.7% | Kansas City Chiefs | -27.6% | Dallas Cowboys got #1 overall pick[44] |
| 1987 | San Francisco 49ers | 41.5% | Atlanta Falcons | -34.3% | Washington Redskins won Super Bowl[45] |
| 1986 | Chicago Bears | 30.5% | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | -42.8% | New York Giants won Super Bowl[46] |
| 1985 | Chicago Bears | 45.8% | Houston Oilers | -36.6% | Tampa Bay Buccaneers got #1 overall pick[47] |
| 1984 | San Francisco 49ers | 33.8% | Minnesota Vikings | -35.7% | Buffalo Bills got #1 overall pick[48] |
| 1983 | Washington Redskins | 35.8% | Houston Oilers | -32.4% | Los Angeles Raiders won Super Bowl, Tampa Bay Buccaneers got #1 overall pick[49] |
| 1982 | New York Jets | 27.4% | Houston Oilers | -42.3% | Washington Redskins won Super Bowl, Baltimore Colts got #1 overall pick[50] |
| 1981 | Philadelphia Eagles | 22.3% | Baltimore Colts | -32.9% | San Francisco 49ers won Super Bowl, New England Patriots got #1 overall pick[51] |
| 1980 | Philadelphia Eagles | 24.6% | New York Giants | -26.2% | Oakland Raiders won Super Bowl, New Orleans Saints got #1 overall pick |
| 1979 | Pittsburgh Steelers | 30.9% | Detroit Lions | -25.7% | | |
Pro Football Prospectus and Football Outsiders Almanac
From 2005 through 2008, Football Outsiders published the Pro Football Prospectus book each year before the football season began. It included an essay for each team analyzing the previous season, evaluating off-season moves, and projecting future performance.
In 2009, Football Outsiders did not publish a Pro Football Prospectus volume, but instead produced the self-published Football Outsiders Almanac 2009. The reason for this is explained in the book:
So why the name change, and why aren’t we in bookstores?
For those who don’t know, our first four books were published through an agreement with Prospectus Entertainment Ventures, the company that owns Baseball Prospectus (as well as the expansion projects Basketball Prospectus and Puck Prospectus). It was PEV that had the publishing contract (first with Workman, then Plume). This year, for various reasons, Plume decided they no longer wanted to publish books related to other sports besides baseball. Other publishers were interested in doing our book, but by the time Plume made their decision, it was too late to get on the publication schedule for 2009.[52]
Management
Editor-in-Chief: Aaron Schatz
Senior Editor: Vince Verhei
Senior Writer: Mike Tanier
Books
- Pro Football Forecast 2004[53]
- Pro Football Prospectus 2005
- Pro Football Prospectus 2006
- Pro Football Prospectus 2007
- Pro Football Prospectus 2008
- Football Outsiders Almanac 2009
- Football Outsiders Almanac 2010
- Football Outsiders Almanac 2011
- Football Outsiders Almanac 2012
General references
- Bob Glauber, http://www.newsday.com/sports/football/glauber-s-nfl-hot-reads-1.811959/a-football-outsider-s-perspective-1.1413423 "Glauber's NFL Hot Reads"], Newsday.com (September 1, 2009).
- "Football Outsider: Football Statistics from Outside the Box—An Interview with Aaron Schatz," SportsTechNow.com (January 25, 2008).
- Will Leitch, "A Conversation with Football Outsiders EIC Aaron Schatz", Deadspin, August 26, 2009.
- "Q.&A. with Mike Tanier of Football Outsiders," in The Fifth Down, New York Times N.F.L. Blog, The New York Times, September 21, 2009.
See also
External links
Notes and References
- Web site: Schatz . Aaron . Announcement. Twitter . August 29, 2023 .
- http://www.footballoutsiders.com/info/methods#DVOA Football Outsiders: DVOA explained
- http://www.footballoutsiders.com/info/methods#specialteams Football Outsider: Special Teams
- http://www.footballoutsiders.com/info/methods#DYAR Football Outsiders: DYAR explained
- http://www.footballoutsiders.com/info/methods#ALY Football Outsiders: Adjusted Line Yards explained
- http://www.footballoutsiders.com/info/methods#drivestats Football Outsiders: Drive Stats
- Football Outsiders Almanac 2011, p.xviii
- https://ftnfantasy.com/dvoa/nfl/dvoa-historical-archive NFL Archives - FTN (For the Numbers)
- https://ftnfantasy.com/dvoa/nfl/team-total-dvoa Total Team DVOA: NFL Football Stats | FTN
- https://ftnfantasy.com/dvoa/nfl/team-total-dvoa Total Team DVOA: NFL Football Stats | FTN
- https://ftnfantasy.com/dvoa/nfl/team-total-dvoa Total Team DVOA: NFL Football Stats | FTN
- https://ftnfantasy.com/dvoa/nfl/team-total-dvoa Total Team DVOA: NFL Football Stats | FTN
- http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/teameff2019 Football Outsiders: DVOA 2019
- http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/teameff2018 Football Outsiders: DVOA 2018
- http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/teameff2017 Football Outsiders: DVOA 2017
- http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/teameff2016 Football Outsiders: DVOA 2016
- http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/teameff2015 Football Outsiders: DVOA 2015
- http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/teameff2014 Football Outsiders: DVOA 2014
- http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/teameff2013 Football Outsiders: DVOA 2013
- http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/teameff2012 Football Outsiders: DVOA 2012
- http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/teameff2011 Football Outsiders: DVOA 2011
- http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/teameff2010 Football Outsiders: DVOA 2010
- http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/teameff2009 Football Outsiders: DVOA 2009
- http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/teameff2008 Football Outsiders: DVOA 2008
- http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/teameff2007 Football Outsiders: DVOA 2007
- http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/teameff2006 Football Outsiders: DVOA 2006
- http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/teameff2005 Football Outsiders: DVOA 2005
- http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/teameff2004 Football Outsiders: DVOA 2004
- http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/teameff2003 Football Outsiders: DVOA 2003
- http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/teameff2002 Football Outsiders: DVOA 2002
- http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/teameff2001 Football Outsiders: DVOA 2001
- http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/teameff2000 Football Outsiders: DVOA 2000
- http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/teameff1999 Football Outsiders: DVOA 1999
- http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/teameff1998 Football Outsiders: DVOA 1998
- http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/teameff1997 Football Outsiders: DVOA 1997
- http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/teameff1996 Football Outsiders: DVOA 1996
- http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/teameff1994 Football Outsiders: DVOA 1994
- http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/teameff1993 Football Outsiders: DVOA 1993
- http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/teameff1992 Football Outsiders: DVOA 1992
- http://www.footballoutsiders.com/dvoa-ratings/2012/1991-dvoa-ratings-and-commentary Football Outsiders: DVOA 1991
- http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/teameff1990 Football Outsiders: DVOA 1990
- http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/teameff1989 Football Outsiders: DVOA 1989
- http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/teameff1988 Football Outsiders: DVOA 1988
- http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/teameff1987 Football Outsiders: DVOA 1987
- http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/teameff1986 Football Outsiders: DVOA 1986
- https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/nfl/team-efficiency/1985 Football Outsiders: DVOA 1985
- https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/nfl/team-efficiency/1984 Football Outsiders: DVOA 1984
- https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/nfl/team-efficiency/1983 Football Outsiders: DVOA 1983
- https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/nfl/team-efficiency/1982 Football Outsiders: DVOA 1982
- https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/nfl/team-efficiency/1981 Football Outsiders: DVOA 1981
- Web site: Allen . Bruce . Football Outsiders Almanac 2009 Interview With Aaron Schatz . Boston Sports Media Watch . July 29, 2009.
- Much of this volume was written by Football Outsiders (FO) authors, but the book itself is not officially a FO publication. See "Pro Football Prospectus 2004: The Lost Year".
