| Election Name: | 2010 Florida gubernatorial election |
| Country: | Florida |
| Type: | presidential |
| Ongoing: | no |
| Previous Election: | 2006 Florida gubernatorial election |
| Previous Year: | 2006 |
| Next Election: | 2014 Florida gubernatorial election |
| Next Year: | 2014 |
| Election Date: | November 2, 2010 |
| Image1: | File:Rick Scott official portrait (cropped).jpg |
| Nominee1: | Rick Scott |
| Running Mate1: | Jennifer Carroll |
| Party1: | Republican Party of Florida |
| Popular Vote1: | 2,619,335 |
| Percentage1: | 48.87% |
| Nominee2: | Alex Sink |
| Running Mate2: | Rod Smith |
| Party2: | Florida Democratic Party |
| Popular Vote2: | 2,557,785 |
| Percentage2: | 47.72% |
| Governor | |
| Before Election: | Charlie Crist |
| Before Party: | Independent |
| After Election: | Rick Scott |
| After Party: | Republican Party (United States) |
| Turnout: | 48.7%1.9[1] |
The 2010 Florida gubernatorial election took place on November 2, 2010. Republican-turned-Independent incumbent Governor Charlie Crist chose not to run for a second term and he ran unsuccessfully for the Senate seat vacated by Mel Martínez.[2] This resulted in an open race for Governor of Florida in which Republican Rick Scott narrowly defeated Democrat Alex Sink.
Despite mixed to unfavorable ratings, Rick Scott benefited greatly from the midterm GOP wave in which Republicans made significant gains across the country.[3] Scott was one of six Republican gubernatorial pick-ups nationwide (counting Crist as an Independent).
The tight and highly contentious election was one of the standout races in 2010. Despite not professing direct allegiance to the movement,[4] Scott benefited from support and endorsement by Tea Party activists,[3] [5] an influential conservative voting bloc of the 2010 midterms. Furthermore, Scott ran aggressively against the Affordable Care Act (Obamacare), and exit polls indicated considerable support for that position.[6] This election was the first Florida gubernatorial election since 1982 where the winner of the gubernatorial election was of the same party as the winner of the concurrent United States Senate election.
Alex Sink, the CFO of Florida, was mentioned as a possible candidate to run for Senate or Governor in 2010,[7] [8] but initially declined. When Charlie Crist announced he would not run for re-election, Sink immediately announced her campaign for governor. Sink was the wife of Bill McBride, who ran unsuccessfully for governor in 2002.
Sink faced only token opposition in the primary. Her lone opponent was former Socialist Party presidential nominee Brian Moore.[9] On primary day, Sink won the Democratic nomination with nearly 77% of the vote.
In May 2009, Republican incumbent governor Charlie Crist announced he would not run for re-election, and instead would run for U.S. Senate.[10] The move immediately turned the race competitive, as GOP-hopefuls lined up to run for the open seat. Former congressman and Florida Attorney General Bill McCollum emerged as the early favorite. McCollum had previously lost the election for Senate in 2000, and lost the Republican nomination for Senate in 2004. This would be his third attempt at a major statewide campaign.
Just before the deadline, Rick Scott jumped into the primary fight. Scott started dumping millions of his own personal fortune into the race.[11] The race quickly became one of the most expensive and "nasty" primary campaigns in recent Florida history.[12] Scott and McCollum lashed out with very negative attacks against each other. Scott ran as a political "outsider", and led some early polls, but McCollum re-took the lead in polls just before primary day. Scott benefited in the absentee voting, while McCollum expected to make up the difference based on turnout. On primary day, Scott won the nomination with just over 46% of the vote. The dejected McCollum team reluctantly conceded after midnight.
The race was dominated by the two major party candidates and spending on their behalf. By the October 25, 2010, Tampa debate between Scott and Sink, Scott had spent $60 million of his own money on the campaign compared to Sink's $28 million.[14] Total campaign expenditure for the race exceeded $100 million, far exceeding any previous spending for a governor's race in Florida.[15] Scott spent $78 million of his personal wealth in the race.[16] Sink made an issue of Scott's connections to Columbia/HCA, a Medicare billing fraud scandal.[3]
One of the turning points in the campaign came during the debate. During a commercial break, Sink's make-up artist delivered a text message on her cell phone to Sink, in direct violation of the debate rules. The rules infraction was immediately pointed out by Scott and the debate moderators.[17] Sink's team was accused of cheating during the debate, and the aide who delivered the message was fired from the campaign the next morning. Afterwards, media and observers were very critical of the gaffe.
| Source | Ranking | As of | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cook Political Report[18] | October 14, 2010 | ||
| Rothenberg[19] | October 28, 2010 | ||
| RealClearPolitics[20] | November 1, 2010 | ||
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[21] | October 28, 2010 | ||
| CQ Politics[22] | October 28, 2010 |
| Poll source | Dates administered | Bill McCollum | Rick Scott | Paula Dockery | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quinnipiac | August 21–22, 2010 | align=center | 39% | 35% | – | ||
| Public Policy Polling | August 21–22, 2010 | 40% | align=center | 47% | – | ||
| Mason-Dixon | August 17–19, 2010 | align=center | 45% | 36% | – | ||
| Quinnipiac | August 11–16, 2010 | align=center | 44% | 35% | – | ||
| Sunshine State News | August 12–15, 2010 | 42% | align=center | 44% | – | ||
| Mason Dixon | August 9–11, 2010 | align=center | 34% | 30% | – | ||
| Ipsos/Florida Newspapers | August 6–10, 2010 | 32% | align=center | 42% | – | ||
| Mason Dixon | August 2–4, 2010 | 31% | align=center | 37% | – | ||
| The Florida Poll | July 24–28, 2010 | 25% | align=center | 41% | – | ||
| Quinnipiac | July 22–27, 2010 | 32% | align=center | 43% | – | ||
| Public Policy Polling | July 16–18, 2010 | 29% | align=center | 43% | – | ||
| Florida Chamber of Commerce | June 9–13, 2010 | 30% | align=center | 35% | – | ||
| Quinnipiac | June 2–8, 2010 | 31% | align=center | 44% | – | ||
| Mason-Dixon | May 3–5, 2010 | align=center | 38% | 24% | 7% | ||
| Research 2000 | November 16–18, 2009 | align=center | 45% | – | 9% | ||
| Strategic Vision | May 29–31, 2009 | align=center | 44% | – | 28% |
| Poll source | Dates administered | Bud Chiles (I) | Rick Scott (R) | Alex Sink (D) | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mason-Dixon | May 3–5, 2010 | — | 36% | 38% | ||
| Rasmussen Reports | May 16, 2010 | — | 41% | 40% | ||
| Rasmussen Reports | June 7, 2010 | — | 45% | 40% | ||
| Quinnipiac | June 7, 2010 | 13% | 35% | 26% | ||
| Florida Chamber of Commerce | June 9–13, 2010 | 15% | 31% | 26% | ||
| Ipsos/Reuters | align=center | July 9–11, 2010 | 12% | 34% | 31% | |
| Public Policy Polling | July 16–18, 2010 | 13% | 30% | 36% | ||
| Quinnipiac | July 22–27, 2010 | 14% | 29% | 27% | ||
| The Florida Poll | July 24–28, 2010 | 11% | 30% | 28% | ||
| Rasmussen Reports | August 2, 2010 | 16% | 35% | 31% | ||
| Ipsos/Florida Newspapers | August 6–10, 2010 | 14% | 30% | 29% | ||
| Mason-Dixon | August 9–11, 2010 | 17% | 24% | 40% | ||
| Quinnipiac | August 11–16, 2010 | 12% | 29% | 33% | ||
| Public Policy Polling | August 21–22, 2010 | 8% | 34% | 41% | ||
| Rasmussen Reports | August 25, 2010 | 4% | 45% | 42% | ||
| Rasmussen Reports | September 1, 2010 | — | 45% | 44% | ||
| Sunshine State News | September 1–7, 2010 | 42% | 44% | |||
| CNN | September 2–7, 2010 | 42% | 49% | |||
| FOX News | September 11, 2010 | 41% | 49% | |||
| Reuters/Ipsos | September 12, 2010 | 45% | 47% | |||
| Mason-Dixon | September 20–22, 2010 | 40% | 47% | |||
| Rasmussen Reports | September 22, 2010 | 50% | 44% | |||
| Quinnipiac | September 23–28, 2010 | 49% | 43% | |||
| CNN | September 24–28, 2010 | 47% | 45% | |||
| Sunshine State News | September 26 – October 3, 2010 | 44% | 42% | |||
| TCPalm.com / Zogby | September 27–29, 2010 | 39% | 41% | |||
| Florida Chamber of Commerce | September 27–30, 2010 | 46% | 42% | |||
| Rasmussen Reports | September 30, 2010 | 46% | 41% | |||
| Mason-Dixon | October 4–6, 2010 | 40% | 44% | |||
| Miami-Dade College | October 5, 2010 | 52% | 46% | |||
| Quinnipiac | October 6–8, 2010 | 45% | 44% | |||
| Rasmussen Reports | October 7, 2010 | 50% | 47% | |||
| PPP | October 9–10, 2010 | 41% | 46% | |||
| Susquehanna | October 12–13, 2010 | 45% | 48% | |||
| Suffolk | October 14–17, 2010 | 38% | 45% | |||
| CNN Opinion Research | October 15–19, 2010 | 49% | 46% | |||
| Ipsos/ St. Pete Times | October 15–19, 2010 | 44% | 41% | |||
| Rasmussen Reports | October 18, 2010 | 50% | 44% | |||
| Naples Daily News / Zogby | October 18–21, 2010 | 39% | 43% | |||
| Quinnipiac | October 18–24, 2010 | 41% | 45% | |||
| Susquehanna | October 20, 2010 | 45% | 45% | |||
| Susquehanna/ Sunshine State News | October 24–25, 2010 | 47% | 45% | |||
| Univ. of South Fla. Polytechnic | October 23–27, 2010 | 44% | 39% | |||
| Quinnipiac | October 25–31, 2010 | 43% | 44% | |||
| Mason-Dixon | October 26–27, 2010 | 43% | 46% | |||
| Rasmussen Reports | October 27, 2010 | 48% | 45% | |||
| Susquehanna/ Sunshine State | October 29–31, 2010 | 46% | 49% | |||
| Public Policy Polling | October 30–31, 2010 | 47% | 48% |
| Poll source | Dates administered | Bill McCollum | Alex Sink | Bud Chiles | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quinnipiac | August 11–16, 2010 | 29% | align=center | 31% | 12% | |
| Mason-Dixon | August 9–11, 2010 | 35% | align=center | 37% | 13% | |
| Ipsos/Florida Newspapers | August 6–10, 2010 | 26% | align=center | 30% | 12% | |
| Rasmussen Reports | August 2, 2010 | 27% | align=center | 31% | 20% | |
| The Florida Poll | July 24–28, 2010 | 26% | align=center | 27% | 12% | |
| Quinnipiac | July 22–27, 2010 | align=center | 27% | 26% | 14% | |
| Public Policy Polling | July 16–18, 2010 | 23% | align=center | 37% | 14% | |
| Ipsos/Reuters | July 9–11, 2010 | 30% | align=center | 31% | 12% | |
| Florida Chamber of Commerce | June 9–13, 2010 | align=center | 30% | 26% | 15% | |
| Quinnipiac | June 7, 2010 | align=center | 33% | 25% | 19% | |
| Rasmussen Reports | June 7, 2010 | align=center | 40% | 38% | — | |
| Rasmussen Reports | May 16, 2010 | align=center | 43% | 35% | — | |
| Mason-Dixon | May 7, 2010 | align=center | 45% | 36% | — | |
| Rasmussen Reports | March 18, 2010 | align=center | 47% | 36% | — | |
| Public Policy Polling | March 5–8, 2010 | align=center | 44% | 31% | — | |
| Rasmussen Reports | February 18, 2010 | align=center | 48% | 35% | — | |
| Fabrizo/McLaughlin | January 31, 2010 | align=center | 41% | 32% | — | |
| Rasmussen Reports | January 27, 2010 | align=center | 46% | 35% | — | |
| Quinnipiac | January 27, 2010 | align=center | 41% | 31% | <1% | |
| Rasmussen Reports | December 14, 2009 | align=center | 44% | 39% | — | |
| Research 2000 | November 16–18, 2009 | align=center | 35% | 33% | — | |
| St. Pete Times/Miami Herald/Bay News 9 | October 25–28, 2009 | 37% | align=center | 38% | — | |
| Rasmussen Reports | October 20, 2009 | align=center | 46% | 35% | — | |
| Quinnipiac | August 19, 2009 | align=center | 38% | 34% | 1% | |
| Public Opinion Strategies | August 4–5, 2009 | align=center | 48% | 37% | — | |
| Rasmussen Reports | June 22, 2009 | align=center | 42% | 34% | — | |
| Quinnipiac | June 2–7, 2009 | 34% | align=center | 38% | 1% | |
| Mason Dixon | May 14–18, 2009 | align=center | 40% | 34% | — | |
| Mason Dixon | March 30 – April 1, 2009 | align=center | 36% | 35% | — |
The 2010 governor's race was one of Florida's closest, decided by just over 60,000 votes. Unlike the concurrent Senate race, the governor's race remained in doubt late into the night. When polls closed, Scott had a lead, but as the night progressed, the margin narrowed. The next day, with over 99% of precincts reporting, Scott maintained about a 1% lead in the raw vote.[3] Despite a small number of still-uncounted ballots from Palm Beach County, Sink's chances of winning were negligible, as Scott was still ahead by over 50,000 – much more than the 3,000 uncounted ballots, and more importantly, still above the threshold of 0.5% to trigger a mandatory recount.[3] Sink conceded the day after the election.
Exit polls showed that Scott won among independents and the two candidates split the Hispanic vote.[3]