2022 United States House of Representatives election in Vermont explained

Election Name:2022 United States House of Representatives election in Vermont's at-large district
Country:Vermont
Type:presidential
Ongoing:no
Previous Election:2020 United States House of Representatives election in Vermont
Previous Year:2020
Next Election:2024 United States House of Representatives election in Vermont
Next Year:2024
Election Date:November 8, 2022
Image1:Rep. Becca Balint - 118th Congress (Cropped).jpg
Nominee1:Becca Balint
Party1:Democratic Party (United States)
Popular Vote1:176,494
Percentage1:60.45%
Nominee2:Liam Madden
Party2:Republican Party (United States)
Popular Vote2:78,397
Percentage2:26.85%
U.S. Representative
Before Election:Peter Welch
Before Party:Democratic Party (United States)
After Election:Becca Balint
After Party:Democratic Party (United States)

The 2022 United States House of Representatives election in Vermont was held on November 8, 2022, to elect the U.S. representative from . The election coincided with other elections to the House of Representatives, elections to the U.S. Senate, as well as various other state and local elections.

Incumbent Democrat Peter Welch was re-elected with 67.3% of the vote in 2020. After eight-term U.S. Senator Patrick Leahy announced he would retire on November 15, some speculated that Welch might decline to seek re-election and instead seek election to the Senate.[1] On November 22, 2021, Welch announced his candidacy for Leahy's seat, creating the first open U.S. House seat in Vermont since Bernie Sanders ran for the U.S. Senate in 2006.[2]

Democratic nominee Becca Balint won the election in a landslide, becoming the first elected female member of the United States Congress in the state's history. Her main opponent in the general election, Liam Madden, won the Republican nomination but identifies as an independent who opposes the two-party system.[3] Madden stated that he would not caucus with House Republicans if elected to Congress; the Vermont Republican Party later disavowed his campaign.[4] Ericka Redic, who lost the Republican primary to Madden, ran in the general election as the nominee of the Libertarian Party.[5]

Vermont was the last remaining state that had never elected a woman to the United States Congress after Mississippi elected its first woman in 2018. With Balint's victory, every U.S. state has now been represented in Congress by a woman at some point.

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

Withdrew

Declined

Polling

Graphical summary

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Becca
Balint
Clifford		Molly
Gray		Louis
Meyers		Kesha
Ram		OtherUndecided
Data for Progress (D)[17] July 27 – August 1, 2022383 (LV)± 5.0%59%1%27%1%––12%
University of New Hampshire[18] July 21–25, 2022352 (LV)± 5.2%63%–21%2%–0%13%
July 19, 2022Sianay Chase Clifford drops out of the race
May 27, 2022Kesha Ram drops out of the race
University of New Hampshire[19] April 14–18, 2022278 (LV)± 5.9%28%0%21%–19%1%31%
VPR/Vermont PBS[20] January 3–9, 2022418 (LV)± 4.8%11%–31%–0%12%47%

Results

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

Declined

Results

Liam Madden won the primary in a surprise victory, as Redic was considered the frontrunner. The Vermont Republican Party disavowed Madden's campaign following a meeting with him on August 15, less than a week after his victory in the primary, citing his refusal to commit to caucusing with the Republican Party if he won the election. Redic announced that she would continue her campaign into the general election as the candidate of the Libertarian Party of Vermont.

Progressive primary

Candidates

Withdrew after winning primary

Declined

Results

Independents and other parties

Candidates

Declared

Withdrawn

General election

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
align=left The Cook Political Report[31] October 5, 2021
align=left Inside Elections[32] October 11, 2021
align=left Sabato's Crystal Ball[33] October 5, 2021
Politico[34] April 5, 2022
RCP[35] June 9, 2022
align=left Fox News[36] July 11, 2022
DDHQ[37] July 20, 2022
538[38] June 30, 2022

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Becca
Balint (D)		Liam
Madden (R)		Ericka
Redic (L)		OtherUndecided
Data for Progress (D)[39] October 21–26, 20221,039 (LV)± 3.0%54%29%5%3%9%
University of New Hampshire[40] September 29 – October 3, 2022765 (LV)± 3.5%57%19%9%11%12%
Becca Balint vs. Marcia Horne
Sianay Chase Clifford vs. Marcia Horne
Molly Gray vs. Marcia Horne
Kesha Ram vs. Marcia Horne

Results

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

External links

Campaign websites

Notes and References

  1. Web site: Allison. Natalie. Leahy, most senior senator, will retire. 2021-11-16. POLITICO. en. November 15, 2021.
  2. Web site: Forgey. Quint. Rep. Peter Welch launches Senate bid for Leahy's seat. 2021-11-22. Politico. November 22, 2021.
  3. News: Madden 'up in the air' about accepting GOP nomination for US House. WCAX-TV. 9 August 2022. 14 August 2022.
  4. Web site: Cutler . Calvin . Vermont GOP will not support Liam Madden for US House . 2022-08-17 . WCAX . August 15, 2022 . en.
  5. Web site: Weinstein . Ethan . 2022-08-11 . Ericka Redic, runner-up in Republican primary, running for U.S. House as a Libertarian . 2022-08-17 . VTDigger . en-US.
  6. News: Duffort . Lola . December 13, 2021 . Becca Balint, leader of the Vermont Senate, joins race for U.S. House . VT Digger . Montpelier, VT.
  7. Web site: December 6, 2021. Lt. Gov. Molly Gray announces run for Vermont's sole US House seat. December 6, 2021. myNBC5.com. en-US.
  8. News: Mann . Rachel . Congressional candidates meet for first forum . WCAX . 26 April 2022 . en.
  9. Web site: Duffort . Lola . March 15, 2022 . Former congressional aide Sianay Chase Clifford to run for US House . 21 March 2022 . VTDigger.
  10. Web site: 2022-07-19 . Sianay Chase Clifford drops out of US House race . 2022-07-19 . VTDigger . en-US. Chien, Lia. Mearhoff, Sarah.
  11. News: Kesha Ram Hinsdale drops out of US House race, endorses Becca Balint. WCAX. May 27, 2022. May 27, 2022. Cutler. Calvin.
  12. Web site: Some names emerge in congressional race, some don't. Dritschilo. Gordon. December 2, 2021. The Barre Montpelier Times Argus.
  13. Web site: Lt. Gov. Molly Gray Says She's Too Focused on Her Current Role to Think About Running for Congress. Johnson, Mark. June 16, 2021. Seven Days.
  14. Web site: Grim. Ryan. 2021-11-15. Bernie Sanders Could Snuff Out a Potential Primary Contest to Replace Patrick Leahy. 2021-11-22. The Intercept. en-US.
  15. Web site: Will Vermont send a woman to Washington?. Cutler, Calvin. November 30, 2021. WCAX.com.
  16. Web site: Rep. Tanya Vyhovsky announces candidacy for new Chittenden-Central State Senate District. The Essex Reporter. May 4, 2022. Higdon, Bridget.
  17. https://www.filesforprogress.org/datasets/2022/8/dfp_vt_al_democratic_primary_aug1_tabs.pdf Data for Progress (D)
  18. https://webpubcontent.gray.tv/wcax/docs/UNH%20Poll.pdf University of New Hampshire
  19. https://scholars.unh.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1693&context=survey_center_polls University of New Hampshire
  20. https://projects.vpr.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/vpr-vermont-pbs-polls-2022-january-results-part-one.xls VPR/Vermont PBS
  21. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dwuhih3TvRo YouTube
  22. Web site: Outspoken war critic, solar specialist runs for Congress. Mays, Chris. April 11, 2022. Bennington Banner.
  23. Web site: Ericka Redic launches candidacy for Congress. February 17, 2022. True North Reports.
  24. Web site: Vermont's 2020 Primary Election Is Like No Other. Here's What You Need To Know . . September 17, 2020 . July 31, 2020.
  25. Web site: 2022 Legislature Winding Down }} Work, Candidates for the November Election Making Moves]. April 18, 2022. NFIB.
  26. Web site: Duffort. Lola. Mearhoff. Sarah. 16 November 2021. Who will take Leahy's place in the Senate and why does everyone think it's Welch?. live. VTDigger. en-US. No one has been explicit yet about their plans for the election in November 2022, save for those ruling out a run. (“No chance!” a spokesperson for Republican Gov. Phil Scott told a reporter on Monday.). https://web.archive.org/web/20211117023628/https://vtdigger.org/2021/11/16/who-will-take-leahys-place-in-the-senate-and-why-does-everyone-think-its-welch/ . November 17, 2021 .
  27. Web site: Buckle Up: Vermont's Robust August Primary Contests Take Shape . Kevin . McCallum . . Burlington . May 27, 2022 . June 1, 2022 . 2022-06-27.
  28. Web site: General Election Candidates . 2022-08-30 . sos.vermont.gov.
  29. Web site: FEC Form 2 for Report FEC-1522463. docquery.fec.gov.
  30. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xU0Ps_Btoqw YouTube
  31. Web site: 2022 House Race Ratings . The Cook Political Report . October 1, 2021.
  32. Web site: House Ratings . The Rothenberg Political Report . October 4, 2021.
  33. Web site: Sabato's Crystal Ball. 2022 House Ratings. October 5, 2021. October 5, 2021.
  34. Web site: 2022 Election Forecast. April 5, 2022. Politico.
  35. Web site: Battle for the House 2022. June 9, 2022 . RCP.
  36. Web site: 2022 Election Forecast . Fox News . July 11, 2022 . July 11, 2022.
  37. Web site: 2022 Election Forecast . DDHQ . July 20, 2022 . July 20, 2022.
  38. Web site: 2022 Election Forecast . FiveThirtyEight . June 30, 2022 . June 30, 2022.
  39. https://www.filesforprogress.org/datasets/2022/10/dfp_vt_midterm_tabs_october.pdf Data for Progress (D)
  40. https://webpubcontent.gray.tv/wcax/docs/WednesdayPoll.pdf University of New Hampshire

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