2024 United States Senate election in Wisconsin should not be confused with 2024 Wisconsin Senate election.
| Election Name: | 2024 United States Senate election in Wisconsin |
| Country: | Wisconsin |
| Type: | presidential |
| Ongoing: | yes |
| Previous Election: | 2018 United States Senate election in Wisconsin |
| Previous Year: | 2018 |
| Next Election: | 2030 United States Senate election in Wisconsin |
| Next Year: | 2030 |
| Election Date: | November 5, 2024 |
| Image1: | File:SenTammyBaldwin (1).jpg |
| Nominee1: | Tammy Baldwin |
| Party1: | Democratic Party (United States) |
| Nominee2: | Eric Hovde |
| Party2: | Republican Party (United States) |
| U.S. Senator | |
| Before Election: | Tammy Baldwin |
| Before Party: | Democratic Party (United States) |
The 2024 United States Senate election in Wisconsin will be held on November 5, 2024, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Wisconsin. Democratic incumbent Tammy Baldwin is seeking a third term. She is being challenged by Republican bank owner Eric Hovde. Primary elections took place on August 13, 2024.[1]
The election is considered essential for Democrats' chances to retain the Senate majority in 2024.[2] Republicans last held both of Wisconsin's Senate seats in 1957.
No Republican has won this senate seat since Joseph McCarthy in 1952. Incumbent Tammy Baldwin was first elected in 2012, defeating former governor Tommy Thompson by 6 percentage points. She was re-elected in 2018 by 11 percentage points.[3] [4]
The race is considered to be slightly favorable to Baldwin, despite Wisconsin's nearly even partisan lean, with most polls showing Baldwin to be the favorite to win.
Wisconsin is considered to be a purple state at the federal level, especially since there are both a Republican and a Democratic senator representing the state. Wisconsin was also a top battleground state in the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections. The state backed the Republican candidate in 2016, and then the Democratic candidate in 2020, both by less than 1% and only a plurality.
Both parties have seen success in the state in recent years. Republicans control both chambers of the Wisconsin Legislature and hold a supermajority in Wisconsin's U.S. House delegation. Republicans also control the state's other senate seat. However, Democrats have seen success in statewide races, including in 2022, where incumbent governor Tony Evers overperformed expectations and won reelection to a second term, despite polls showing his Republican challenger as the slight favorite.[5] [6]
| Campaign finance reports as of July 24, 2024 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand | |
| Eric Hovde (R) | $16,726,282 | $13,607,418 | $3,118,864 | |
| Rejani Raveendran (R) | $37,912 | $29,884 | $8,022 | |
| Stacey Klein (R) | $33,712 | $33,712 | $0 | |
| Source: Federal Election Commission[22] | ||||
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | David Clarke | Mike Gallagher | Eric Hovde | Scott Mayer | Tom Tiffany | Undecided | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling (D) | December 11–12, 2023 | 503 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 52% | – | 7% | 6% | – | 36% | |
| 51% | – | 10% | – | – | 39% | |||||
| 52% | – | – | 6% | – | 42% | |||||
| Public Policy Polling (D) | June 5–6, 2023 | 507 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 40% | 20% | 3% | – | 10% | 27% | |
| 45% | 26% | – | – | – | 29% |
| Source | Ranking | As of | |
|---|---|---|---|
| align=left | The Cook Political Report[26] | April 9, 2024 | |
| align=left | Inside Elections[27] | July 28, 2023 | |
| align=left | Sabato's Crystal Ball[28] | January 24, 2023 | |
| align=left | Decision Desk HQ/The Hill[29] | June 8, 2024 | |
| align=left | Elections Daily[30] | May 4, 2023 | |
| align=left | CNalysis[31] | November 21, 2023 | |
| align=left | RealClearPolitics[32] | August 5, 2024 | |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Tammy Baldwin (D) | Eric Hovde (R) | Other | Undecided | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TIPP Insights (R) | August 12–14, 2024 | 1,015 (RV) | ± 3.4% | 50% | 42% | – | 8% | ||
| 976 (LV) | ± 3.4% | 50% | 43% | – | 7% | ||||
| The Bullfinch Group | August 8–11, 2024 | 500 (RV) | ± 4.38% | 50% | 41% | – | 9% | ||
| NYT/Siena College | August 5–8, 2024 | 661 (RV) | ± 4.3% | 51% | 43% | – | 6% | ||
| 661 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 51% | 44% | – | 5% | ||||
| BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D) | data-sort-value="2024-08-15" | July 26– August 2, 2024 | 404 (LV) | – | 50% | 43% | – | 7% | |
| Marquette University | July 24 – August 1, 2024 | 877 (RV) | ± 4.6% | ||||||
| 47% | 39% | – | 14% | ||||||
| 53% | 46% | – | 1% | ||||||
| 50% | 44% | 4% | 1% | ||||||
| 801 (LV) | ± 4.8% | 48% | 41% | – | 11% | ||||
| 52% | 47% | – | 1% | ||||||
| 51% | 45% | 4% | 1% | ||||||
| Fox News | data-sort-value="2024-07-24" | July 22–24, 2024 | 1,046 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 54% | 43% | – | 3% | |
| Emerson College | data-sort-value="2024-07-25" | July 22–23, 2024 | 845 (RV) | ± 3.3% | 49% | 43% | – | 8% | |
| Joe Biden withdraws from the Presidential Race | |||||||||
| YouGov | July 4–12, 2024 | 900 (RV) | ± 4.1% | 50% | 43% | 1% | 7% | ||
| 831 (LV) | – | 50% | 44% | 1% | 5% | ||||
| Public Policy Polling (D) | data-sort-value="2024-07-22" | July 10-11, 2024 | 548 (RV) | – | 51% | 43% | – | 6% | |
| North Star Opinion Research | data-sort-value="2024-06-20" | July 6–10, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 49% | 41% | – | 10% | |
| Remington Research Group (R) | data-sort-value="2024-06-20" | June 29 – July 1, 2024 | 593 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 48% | 48% | – | 3% | |
| SoCal Research (R) | data-sort-value="2024-07-08" | June 30 – July 2, 2024 | 490 (RV) | – | 50% | 38% | – | 12% | |
| Fabrizio Ward (R)/ Impact Research (D) | data-sort-value="2024-07-09" | June 28 – July 2, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 50% | 45% | – | 6% | |
| Marquette University | June 12–20, 2024 | 871 (RV) | ± 4.6% | 45% | 38% | – | 17% | ||
| 52% | 47% | – | – | ||||||
| 784 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 49% | 40% | – | 11% | ||||
| 52% | 47% | – | – | ||||||
| Emerson College | data-sort-value="2024-06-20" | June 13–18, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 46% | 44% | – | 10% | |
| Mainstreet Research/FAU | May 30–31, 2024 | 338 (RV) | ± 5.3% | 43% | 38% | 8% | 11% | ||
| 290 (LV) | ± 5.3% | 47% | 39% | 7% | 7% | ||||
| KAConsulting (R) | data-sort-value="2024-07-08" | May 15–19, 2024 | 600 (RV) | – | 46% | 42% | – | 12% | |
| BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D) | data-sort-value="2024-05-23" | May 6–13, 2024 | 503 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 49% | 37% | – | 14% | |
| NYT/Siena College | April 28 – May 9, 2024 | 614 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 49% | 40% | – | 10% | ||
| 614 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 49% | 42% | – | 9% | ||||
| Quinnipiac University | data-sort-value="2024-05-08" | May 2–6, 2024 | 1,457 (RV) | ± 2.6% | 54% | 42% | 2% | 2% | |
| Emerson College | April 25–29, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 46% | 43% | – | 11% | ||
| CBS News/YouGov | April 19–25, 2024 | 1,245 (LV) | ± 3.3% | 48% | 41% | 3% | 8% | ||
| Marquette University | April 3–10, 2024 | 814 (RV) | ± 4.8% | 52% | 47% | – | 1% | ||
| 736 (LV) | ± 5.0% | 50% | 50% | – | – | ||||
| Emerson College | March 14–18, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 45% | 42% | – | 14% | ||
| Emerson College | February 20–24, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 46% | 39% | – | 15% | ||