ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters explained

The ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters, simply called the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF), is a quarterly survey of macroeconomic forecasts for the economy of Europe issued by the European Central Bank (ECB).^[1]

History

The ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters was started in 1999.^{[1] [2]}

In 2007, the ECB published a review of the survey based on eight years of experience.^[3]

Reception

Academic research

The ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters has been the subject of some academic research, including a 2013 paper considering whether there was a better way of combining the forecasts than simply taking the average. They found some methods of combining that did better than the average, but noted that it was not clear that these methods would continue to beat the average in the future.^[4]

See also

• Survey of Professional Forecasters, a similar survey in the United States conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
• Blue Chip Economic Indicators

Notes and References

1. Web site: ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters. European Central Bank. April 13, 2014.
2. Web site: An Introduction to the ECB's Survey of Professional Forecasters. Juan Angel Garcia. September 2003. European Central Bank.
3. Web site: The ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters: A Review After Eight Years of Experience. April 2007. Carlos Bowles. Roberta Friz. Veronique Genre. Geoff Kenny. Aidan Meyler. Tuomas Rautanen.
4. Combining expert forecasts: Can anything beat the simple average?. Genre. Veronique. Kenny. Geoff. Meyler. Aidan. Timmermann. Aidan. 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2012.06.004. International Journal of Forecasting. International Institute of Forecasters in collaboration with Elsevier. 29. 2013. 108-121.