2014 United States Senate election in Texas explained

Election Name:2014 United States Senate election in Texas
Country:Texas
Type:presidential
Ongoing:no
Previous Election:2008 United States Senate election in Texas
Previous Year:2008
Next Election:2020 United States Senate election in Texas
Next Year:2020
Election Date:November 4, 2014
Turnout:33.1%
Image1:File:John Cornyn official senate portrait.jpg
Nominee1:John Cornyn
Party1:Republican Party (United States)
Popular Vote1:2,861,531
Percentage1:61.56%
Nominee2:David Alameel
Party2:Democratic Party (United States)
Popular Vote2:1,597,387
Percentage2:34.36%
U.S. Senator
Before Election:John Cornyn
Before Party:Republican Party (United States)
After Election:John Cornyn
After Party:Republican Party (United States)

The 2014 United States Senate election in Texas was held on November 4, 2014, to elect a member of the United States Senate. Incumbent Republican senator and Senate Minority Whip John Cornyn ran for re-election to a third term. Primary elections were held on March 4, 2014. Since no Democratic candidate received over 50% in the first round of the primary, a runoff election was required on May 27, 2014. David Alameel, who came in first in the primary, won the runoff and became his party's nominee. In the general election, Cornyn defeated Alameel in a landslide.

Republican primary

In February 2014, Republican Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell was featured in a controversial television advertisement by Dwayne Stovall. Stovall belittled McConnell, Cornyn's superior in the Senate leadership, as an ineffective "Beltway turtle" who is out-of-touch with the party rank-and-file.[1] Until the controversial advertisement, the media had largely ignored Stovall's candidacy.

Candidates

Declared

Withdrew

Declined

Polling

Poll sourceCurt
Cleaver
Ken
Cope
John
Cornyn
Chris
Mapp
Reid
Reasor
Steve
Stockman
Dwayne
Stovall
Linda
Vega
OtherUndecided
align=left Public Policy Polling[16] November 1–4, 2013388± 4.4%41%18%44%
align=left Wilson Perkins Allen[17] December 13, 2013762± 3.6%50%6%5%39%
align=left Gravis Marketing[18] February 10–12, 2014729± 3.6%43%28%29%
align=left UoT/Texas Tribune[19] February 7–17, 2014461± 4.56%1%4%62%3%3%16%4%7%
Poll sourceJohn
Cornyn

conservative
Undecided
align=left Gravis Marketing[20] October 26, 2013563± 3%33%46%21%
align=left Public Policy PollingNovember 1–4, 2013388± 4.4%33%49%18%
Poll sourceJohn
Cornyn
David
Barton
Rafael
Cruz
Louie
Gohmert
Ron
Paul
Rick
Perry
Steve
Stockman
Undecided
align=left UoT/Texas TribuneOctober 18–27, 2013519± 5.02%25%41%18%3%13%
35%46%20%
34%44%22%
40%31%29%
39%33%28%
align=left rowspan=5 Public Policy PollingNovember 1–4, 2013388± 4.4%51%18%31%

Results

Because Cornyn surpassed a majority in the primary, he faced no runoff election.[22] Cornyn's winning percent and margin of victory were the lowest by any Texas Republican U.S. Senator in a primary election in state history.[23]

Democratic primary

Candidates

Declared

Declined

Results

Because no candidate received over 50% of the vote in the primary, the two with the most votes – David Alameel and Kesha Rogers – advanced to a runoff on May 27.[30]

Libertarian convention

Candidates

Declared

Results

Rebecca Paddock won the nomination.

Green nomination

Candidates

Declared

Results

Sanchez won the nomination.

General election

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
align=left The Cook Political Report[34] November 3, 2014
align=left Sabato's Crystal Ball[35] November 3, 2014
align=left Rothenberg Political Report[36] November 3, 2014
align=left Real Clear Politics[37] November 3, 2014

Polling

Poll sourceJohn
Cornyn (R)
David
Alameel (D)
OtherUndecided
align=left Public Policy Polling[38] April 10–13, 2014559± 4.1%49%32%20%
align=left UoT/Texas Tribune[39] May 30 – June 8, 20141,200± 2.83%36%25%13%[40] 26%
align=left CBS News/NYT/YouGov[41] July 5–24, 20144,353± 3.7%52%35%3%10%
align=left Rasmussen Reports[42] August 4–5, 20144,353± 3.0%47%29%6%19%
align=left CBS News/NYT/YouGov[43] August 18 – September 2, 20144,189± 2%55%39%3%8%
align=left Texas Lyceum[44] September 11–25, 2014666± 3.8%48%30%8%[45] 14%
align=left CBS News/NYT/YouGov[46] September 20 – October 1, 20144,177± 2%55%35%1%9%
align=left Rasmussen ReportsOctober 1–2, 2014840± 3.5%50%29%6%15%
align=left UoT/Texas Tribune[47] October 10–19, 2014866± 3.6%57%31%12%[48]
align=left CBS News/NYT/YouGovOctober 16–23, 20143,987± 3%57%35%1%8%

With Castro

Poll sourceJohn
Cornyn (R)
Julian
Castro (D)
Undecided
align=left Public Policy Polling[49] January 24–27, 2012500± 4.4%48%41%11%
align=left Public Policy Polling[50] June 28 – July 1, 2013500± 4.4%50%37%13%
align=left Public Policy PollingNovember 1–4, 2013500± 4.4%49%35%17%

With Davis

Poll sourceJohn
Cornyn (R)
Wendy
Davis (D)
Undecided
align=left Public Policy PollingJanuary 24–27, 2012500± 4.4%48%37%14%
align=left Public Policy PollingJune 28 – July 1, 2013500± 4.4%48%40%12%

With Parker

Poll sourceJohn
Cornyn (R)
Annise
Parker (D)
Undecided
align=left Public Policy PollingJanuary 24–27, 2012500± 4.4%47%36%16%
align=left Public Policy PollingJune 28 – July 1, 2013500± 4.4%49%36%15%

With White

Poll sourceJohn
Cornyn (R)
Bill
White (D)
Undecided
align=left Public Policy PollingJanuary 24–27, 2012500± 4.4%45%42%13%
align=left Public Policy PollingJune 28 – July 1, 2013500± 4.4%47%40%13%
align=left Public Policy PollingNovember 1–4, 2013500± 4.4%44%39%17%

Results

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

See also

External links

Official campaign websites (Archived)

Notes and References

  1. News: Samantha Lachman, "GOP Senate Candidate Calls Mitch McConnell 'Beltway Turtle' in Anti-Cornyn Ad", February 14, 2014 . . February 16, 2014 . February 14, 2014.
  2. Web site: Filing ends, ballot set for 2014 election . Roll Call . Tinsley . Anna M. . December 9, 2013 . December 9, 2013 . https://web.archive.org/web/20131212213322/http://www.star-telegram.com/2013/12/09/5405624/the-ballot-is-set-for-the-2014.html . December 12, 2013 . dead .
  3. Web site: John Cornyn Airs First Re-Election Campaign Spot . Roll Call . October 7, 2013 . November 24, 2013 . December 3, 2013 . https://web.archive.org/web/20131203115607/http://atr.rollcall.com/john-cornyn-airs-first-ad-of-re-election-campaign/ . dead .
  4. Web site: A Local Man Plans on Running for U.S. Senate . Crossroads Today . November 13, 2013 . November 24, 2013 . https://web.archive.org/web/20131202231918/http://www.crossroadstoday.com/content/news/local/story/A-Local-Man-Plans-on-Running-for-U-S-Senate/7Tqid4D4y0yCnCZUeXbRQQ.cspx?rss=3671 . December 2, 2013 . dead .
  5. News: Democrat Alameel Will Run for Cornyn's Senate Seat . The Texas Tribune . Alexa Ura . November 29, 2013 . December 10, 2013.
  6. Web site: 2014 Republican Party Primary Election. https://web.archive.org/web/20140109062336/http://elections.sos.state.tx.us/elchist.exe. dead. January 9, 2014.
  7. Web site: U.S. Senate hopeful addresses Lone Star Patriots of Leon County . Leon County Today . June 4, 2013 . July 9, 2013 . https://web.archive.org/web/20130724010011/http://www.leoncountytoday.com/news/2013-06-04/News/US_Senate_hopeful_addresses_Lone_Star_Patriots_of_.html . July 24, 2013 . dead .
  8. News: Attorney Vega challenging Cornyn in GOP primary . . October 23, 2013 . October 23, 2013.
  9. Web site: Krehbiel . Randy . Hope springs eternal in U.S. Senate primaries . tulsaworld.com . Tulsa World . 8 February 2020.
  10. Web site: Reilly . Molly . Greg Abbott Launches Texas Governor Campaign For 2014 . huffpost.com . July 14, 2013 . Verizon Media . 9 February 2020.
  11. Web site: Kopan . Tal . David Barton won't run against John Cornyn . Politico . November 6, 2013.
  12. Web site: Stutz . Terrence . David Dewhurst '101 percent' sure he'll seek re-election as Texas lieutenant governor . Dallasnews.com . January 4, 2013 . July 8, 2013 . April 3, 2015 . https://web.archive.org/web/20150403173952/http://www.dallasnews.com/news/politics/state-politics/20130104-david-dewhurst-101-percent-sure-hell-seek-re-election-as-texas-lieutenant-governor.ece . dead .
  13. News: Dewhurst affirms re-election campaign . Associated Press . KTRK-TV Houston . August 7, 2013 . August 9, 2013 . https://web.archive.org/web/20130911140411/http://abclocal.go.com/ktrk/story?section=news%2Fstate&id=9199062 . September 11, 2013 . dead . mdy-all .
  14. Web site: Gohmert v. Cornyn . Paul . Burka . August 8, 2013 . August 9, 2013 . Texas Monthly.
  15. Web site: Latinas Will Be Front And Center In Races For Top Political Posts In Texas Next Year . foxnews.com . December 21, 2016 . FOX News Network, LLC. . 9 February 2020.
  16. http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2013/PPP_Release_TX_1106.pdf Public Policy Polling
  17. http://www.politico.com/story/2013/12/john-cornyn-steve-stockman-poll-101149.html Wilson Perkins Allen
  18. http://gravismarketing.com/polling-and-market-research/texas-telephone-poll-stockman-gaining-against-cornyn-in-primary-battle/ Gravis Marketing
  19. http://s3.amazonaws.com/static.texastribune.org/media/documents/utttpoll-201402-1summary.pdf UoT/Texas Tribune
  20. http://gravismarketing.com/gravis-marketing-poll-ivr/ Gravis Marketing
  21. http://www.texastribune.org/2013/11/04/uttt-poll-governor-race-abbott-leads-davis-6/ UoT/Texas Tribune
  22. News: Republican Cornyn Wins Primary in Texas Over Tea Party Foe . McCormick . John . March 5, 2014 . bloomberg.com . March 6, 2014.
  23. Web site: Cornyn Records Weakest Ever Primary Win for Texas GOP US Senator . Smart Politics . Eric . Ostermeier . March 5, 2014.
  24. News: Dallas dentist David Alameel brings big fortune to U.S. Senate race . Todd J. . Gillman . Dallas Morning News. December 2, 2013 . December 5, 2013.
  25. Web site: Republican turned Democrat runs for Cornyn's Senate seat . blog.chron.com . November 22, 2013 . November 24, 2013.
  26. Web site: Anti-Obama Democrat Kesha Rogers files for U.S. Senate . . Nick . Swartsell . December 6, 2013 . December 8, 2013 . December 9, 2013 . https://web.archive.org/web/20131209013552/http://trailblazersblog.dallasnews.com/2013/12/anti-obama-democrat-kesha-rogers-files-for-u-s-senate.html/ . dead .
  27. Web site: Democratic Candidates . Texpatriate . October 28, 2013 . October 28, 2013.
  28. Web site: Catherine Thompson . Texas governor race 2014: Wendy Davis: I will run for reelection or governor . Politico . August 5, 2013 . August 6, 2013.
  29. News: Bill White says Texas lagging in skilled jobs . Houston Chronicle . February 28, 2013 . July 9, 2013.
  30. Web site: Alameel, Rogers Advance to Texas Senate Runoff . Weissert . Will . March 5, 2014 . abcnews.go.com . ABC News . March 6, 2014 . https://web.archive.org/web/20140317185929/https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/wireStory/texas-democrats-nominate-alameel-us-senate-22778098 . March 17, 2014 . dead .
  31. Web site: 2014 Federal Candidates . Libertarian Party of Texas . December 9, 2013 . https://web.archive.org/web/20131215021444/http://www.lptexas.org/federal-candidates . December 15, 2013 . dead .
  32. Web site: Texas Greens Occupy Ballot In 2014 . Green Party . December 10, 2013 . January 29, 2014 . https://web.archive.org/web/20140201221613/http://www.gp.org/index.php/newsroom/press-releases/details/4/662.html . February 1, 2014 . dead . mdy-all .
  33. https://www.c-span.org/video/?322319-1/texas-senate-debate C-SPAN
  34. Web site: 2014 Senate Race Ratings for November 3, 2014 . The Cook Political Report . September 20, 2018.
  35. Web site: The Crystal Ball's Final 2014 Picks . Sabato's Crystal Ball . November 3, 2014 . September 20, 2018.
  36. Web site: 2014 Senate Ratings . Senate Ratings . The Rothenberg Political Report . September 20, 2018.
  37. Web site: 2014 Elections Map - Battle for the Senate 2014 . Real Clear Politics . September 20, 2018.
  38. http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2014/PPP_Release_TX_415.pdf Public Policy Polling
  39. http://s3.amazonaws.com/static.texastribune.org/media/documents/uttt-jun2014-summary-all.pdf UoT/Texas Tribune
  40. Rebecca Paddock (L) 5%, Emily Marie Sanchez (G) 3%, Other 5%
  41. http://www.cbsnews.com/news/2014-midterms-republicans-narrowly-favored-to-capture-senate-in-november/ CBS News/NYT/YouGov
  42. http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2014/texas/election_2014_texas_senate Rasmussen Reports
  43. https://today.yougov.com/news/2014/09/07/battleground-tracker-2014-texas/ CBS News/NYT/YouGov
  44. http://www.texaslyceum.org/assets/cms/uploads/files/2014%20Poll%20Day%202%20news%20release%20FINAL.pdf Texas Lyceum
  45. Rebecca Paddock (L) 4%, Emily Marie Sanchez (G) 4%
  46. http://today.yougov.com/news/2014/09/07/senate-races-battleground-tracker/ CBS News/NYT/YouGov
  47. http://s3.amazonaws.com/static.texastribune.org/media/documents/uttt-oct14-summary-2.pdf UoT/Texas Tribune
  48. Rebecca Paddock (L) 7%, Emily Marie Sanchez (G) 5%
  49. http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_TX_130.pdf Public Policy Polling
  50. http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_TX_703.pdf Public Policy Polling