2018 Minnesota gubernatorial election explained

See also: 2018 United States gubernatorial elections.

Election Name:2018 Minnesota gubernatorial election
Country:Minnesota
Flag Year:1983
Type:presidential
Ongoing:no
Turnout:2,587,287 (63.6%)
Previous Election:2014 Minnesota gubernatorial election
Previous Year:2014
Next Election:2022 Minnesota gubernatorial election
Next Year:2022
Election Date:November 6, 2018
Image1:File:Tim Walz official photo (cropped 2).jpg
Nominee1:Tim Walz
Party1:Minnesota Democratic–Farmer–Labor Party
Running Mate1:Peggy Flanagan
Popular Vote1:1,393,096
Percentage1:53.84%
Nominee2:Jeff Johnson
Party2:Republican Party of Minnesota
Running Mate2:Donna Bergstrom
Popular Vote2:1,097,705
Percentage2:42.43%
Governor
Before Election:Mark Dayton
Before Party:Minnesota Democratic–Farmer–Labor Party
After Election:Tim Walz
After Party:Minnesota Democratic–Farmer–Labor Party

The 2018 Minnesota gubernatorial election took place on November 6, to elect the 41st Governor of Minnesota as incumbent Democratic (DFL) Governor Mark Dayton chose not to run for re-election for a third term. The Democratic nominee was U.S. Representative Tim Walz from Minnesota's 1st congressional district while the Republican Party nominated Hennepin County commissioner Jeff Johnson for a second consecutive time. The Independence Party of Minnesota did not field a candidate for the first time since 1994. Going into the election polls showed Walz ahead; the race was characterized as lean or likely DFL.

Walz went on to defeat Johnson by the largest margin for a DFL candidate since 1986, receiving more votes than any other gubernatorial candidate in Minnesota history. This was the first Minnesota gubernatorial election since 1958 in which any party won more than two consecutive elections, as well as the first time since 1998 where the party of the incumbent president lost.

Democratic–Farmer–Labor primary

Candidates

Nominated

Eliminated in primary

Withdrawn

Declined

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Erin
Murphy
Lori
Swanson
Tim
Walz
OtherUndecided
Emerson College August 8–11, 2018217± 6.9%19% align=center29%28%24%
Marist CollegeJuly 15–19, 2018439± 5.6%11% align=center28%24%1% align=center37%
GQR Research (D-Minnesota Victory PAC)June 25–27, 201860217% align=center37%29%1%[29] 16%

Straw poll

On February 6, 2018, the DFL conducted a statewide straw poll among registered Democrats in Minnesota. Caucus-goers were scheduled to elect delegates to their party's Senate district and county conventions, which in turn will elect state convention delegates who will endorse candidates for governor, two U.S. Senate seats, attorney general, state auditor and secretary of state. Congressional district delegates will endorse U.S. House candidates. Since the straw poll the three lowest performing candidates withdrew from the race (Paul Thissen, Chris Coleman, and Tina Liebling).

Congressional
Unit
Total
attendance
Chris ColemanTina LieblingErin MurphyRebecca OttoPaul ThissenTim
Walz
OtherUncommitted
12,57771355107232561,5584163
23,5013842024116561201,1564523
34,2916702023868271861,3628530
46,0728542971,1111,2271391,38411897
59,5191,0194571,4001,4625372,363301,137
62,375326115294587595904375
72,1211241062744051727614273
83,8734412774741,0822637598527
Statewide34,3293,8892,0114,4576,4781,532 align=center9,933734,425
Percent-11.86%6.13%13.59%19.75%4.67% align=center30.29%0.22%13.49%

Results

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominated

Eliminated in primary

Withdrew

Declined

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Jeff
Johnson
Matt
Kruse
Tim
Pawlenty
OtherUndecided
Emerson College August 8–11, 2018156± 8.0%34% align=center43%23%
Marist CollegeJuly 15–19, 2018340± 6.4%32% align=center51%1%16%
BK Strategies (R) June 24–25, 2018439± 4.7%20%3% align=center54%23%

Results

Third parties and independents

Candidates

Declared

General election

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report[61] October 26, 2018
The Washington Post[62] November 5, 2018
FiveThirtyEight[63] November 5, 2018
Rothenberg Political Report[64] November 1, 2018
Sabato's Crystal Ball[65] November 5, 2018
RealClearPolitics[66] November 4, 2018
Daily Kos[67] November 5, 2018
Fox News[68] November 5, 2018
Politico[69] November 5, 2018
Governing[70] November 5, 2018

Debates

The debate season began only three days after the primaries with Johnson and Walz participating in two debates on Friday, August 17. A third debate was held Friday, August 31.[71] [72]

Host
network/sponsors! rowspan="2"
DateLink(s)Participants
Tim
Walz (DFL)
Jeff
Johnson (R)
MPR NewsAugust 31, 2018InvitedInvited
KSTP-TVAugust 17, 2018[73] InvitedInvited
Twin Cities PBS (Almanac)August 17, 2018[74] InvitedInvited

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Tim
Walz (D)
Jeff
Johnson (R)
Josh
Welter (L)
OtherUndecided
Change ResearchNovember 2–4, 2018953 align=center53%41%2%2%[75]
Research Co.November 1–3, 2018450± 4.6% align=center48%42%1%9%
SurveyUSAOctober 29–31, 2018600± 5.3% align=center49%41%2%9%
St. Cloud State UniversityOctober 15–30, 2018404 align=center50%34%
Mason-Dixon October 15–17, 2018800± 3.5% align=center45%39%3%2%12%
Change ResearchOctober 12–13, 20181,413 align=center47%44%3%4%[76] 2%
Marist CollegeSeptember 30 – October 4, 2018637 LV± 4.9% align=center51%36%6%<1%6%
align=center55%38%<1%7%
860 RV± 4.2% align=center49%37%7%<1%7%
align=center53%39%1%8%
Mason-DixonSeptember 10–12, 2018800± 3.5% align=center45%36%1%2%16%
SurveyUSASeptember 6–8, 2018574± 4.9% align=center47%40%3%10%
Suffolk University August 17–20, 2018500± 4.4% align=center46%41%1%1%[77] 12%
Emerson College August 8–11, 2018500± 4.6% align=center40%33%27%
with Erin Murphy and Tim Pawlenty
with Lori Swanson and Tim Pawlenty
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Lori
Swanson (D)
Tim
Pawlenty (R)
OtherUndecided
Emerson College August 8–11, 2018500± 4.6% align=center44%36%21%
Marist CollegeJuly 15–19, 2018876± 4.0% align=center51%40%2%7%
BK Strategies June 24–25, 20181,574± 2.5% align=center46%41%13%
with Tim Walz and Tim Pawlenty
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Tim
Walz (D)
Tim
Pawlenty (R)
OtherUndecided
Emerson College August 8–11, 2018500± 4.6% align=center44%33%23%
Marist CollegeJuly 15–19, 2018876± 4.0% align=center51%40%1%8%
BK Strategies June 24–25, 20181,574± 2.5% align=center48%41%11%
with Lori Swanson and Jeff Johnson
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Generic
Democrat
Generic
Republican
Undecided
BK Strategies June 24–25, 20181,574± 2.5% align=center48%42%10%
Public Policy Polling (D-A Better Minnesota)June 15–16, 2018717 align=center46%39%16%

Results

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

Results by congressional district

Walz won 5 of 8 congressional districts. Each candidate won a district won by the other party.[78]

DistrictWalzJohnsonRepresentative
49.54%47.18%Jim Hagedorn
51.52%44.58%Angie Craig
54.44%42.37%Dean Phillips
65.72%30.56%Betty McCollum
77.91%18.17%Ilhan Omar
40.53%55.49%Tom Emmer
39.56%56.86%Collin Peterson
47.14%48.93%Pete Stauber

Voter demographics

Walz!
JohnsonNo
Answer
% of
Voters
Gender
Men4849346
Women5937454
Age
18–24 years old712546
25–29 years old633435
30–39 years old6038212
40–49 years old5146313
50–64 years old5445129
65 and older5246235
Race
White5346189
Black841425
LatinoN/AN/AN/A3
AsianN/AN/AN/A2
OtherN/AN/AN/A2
Race by gender
White men4653141
White women5939248
Black menN/AN/AN/A3
Black womenN/AN/AN/A2
Latino menN/AN/AN/A1
Latino womenN/AN/AN/A1
OthersN/AN/AN/A3
Education
High school or less5245317
Some college education4849324
Associate degree4849317
Bachelor's degree5640426
Advanced degree7028216
Education and race
White college graduates6135438
White no college degree4651351
Non-white college graduates702644
Non-white no college degree742337
Whites by education and gender
White women with college degrees6829321
White women without college degrees5145428
White men with college degrees5443317
White men without college degrees4058223
Non-whites7324311
Income
Under $30,0006334314
$30,000–49,9995443321
$50,000–99,9994851136
$100,000–199,9995542323
Over $200,000N/AN/AN/A7
Party ID
Democrats955N/A39
Republicans1090N/A32
Independents5142728
Party by gender
Democratic men945114
Democratic women954125
Republican men892N/A16
Republican women1288N/A17
Independent men4748516
Independent women5834813
Ideology
Liberals942427
Moderates6532339
Conservatives1087333
Marital status
Married4749468
Unmarried6333432
Gender by marital status
Married men4354331
Married women5145436
Unmarried men5243515
Unmarried women7224418
First-time midterm election voter
Yes5244412
No5542388
Most important issue facing the country
Health care7424250
Immigration2079122
Economy3067318
Gun policyN/AN/AN/A8
Area type
Urban6730340
Suburban5046432
Rural4156328
Source: CNN[79]

See also

External links

Official campaign websites

Notes and References

  1. Web site: Democrat Walz to run for governor. Post-Bulletin. Carlson. Heather J.. March 27, 2017. March 27, 2017. March 27, 2017. https://web.archive.org/web/20170327213737/http://www.postbulletin.com/news/politics/walz-to-run-for-governor/article_bf1a1a38-f506-5c21-b2f1-cf2365af29c0.html. dead.
  2. Web site: DFL candidate for governor Tim Walz picks Peggy Flanagan, state representative from Twin Cities, as running mate. Star Tribune. Coolican. J. Patrick. October 5, 2017. October 5, 2017.
  3. Web site: Candidate Filings. candidates.sos.state.mn.us. 18 August 2018.
  4. News: Investor says he's selling St. Paul properties to run for mayor. 2017-03-22. Twin Cities. 2018-06-19. en-US.
  5. Web site: St. Paul Rep. Erin Murphy announces run for MN governor. St. Paul Pioneer Press. Stassen-Berger. Rachel E.. November 17, 2016. November 17, 2016.
  6. Web site: Erin Murphy taps Erin Maye Quade as running mate in race for governor. WCCO-TV. June 3, 2018. June 3, 2018.
  7. Web site: Attorney General Lori Swanson joins governor's race. Star Tribune. Coolican. J. Patrick. Golden. Erin. June 4, 2017. June 4, 2018.
  8. News: State Rep. Paul Thissen drops out of Minnesota governor's race. Minneapolis Star Tribune. 2018-02-07. February 7, 2017. Van Berkel . Jessie.
  9. Web site: Former Minnesota DFL House Speaker Paul Thissen to run for governor. Minneapolis Star Tribune. Coolican. J. Patrick. June 14, 2017. June 15, 2017. June 15, 2017. https://web.archive.org/web/20170615030335/http://www.startribune.com/former-minnesota-dfl-house-speaker-paul-thissen-to-run-for-governor/428538203/. dead.
  10. Web site: St. Paul Mayor Chris Coleman to run for governor in 2018 – Twin Cities. 13 December 2016. 2016-12-13.
  11. Web site: Coleman withdraws from governor's race. 2018-02-12.
  12. Web site: With detailed policy focus, Democrat Tina Liebling to run for governor. St. Paul Pioneer Press. Stassen-Berger. Rachel E.. April 2, 2017. April 2, 2017.
  13. Web site: DFL Rep. Tina Liebling drops out of governor's race. St. Paul Pioneer Press. Magan. Christopher. March 12, 2018. March 12, 2018.
  14. Web site: State Auditor Rebecca Otto Withdraws Campaign For Governor. CBS Minnesota. June 4, 2018. June 5, 2018. June 15, 2018. https://web.archive.org/web/20180615004528/http://minnesota.cbslocal.com/2018/06/04/otto-withdraws-campaign/amp/. dead.
  15. Web site: Handicapping the next race for governor: the DFLers. November 22, 2014. March 6, 2015. Condon. Patrick. Star Tribune.
  16. Web site: Sen. Bakk Holds Caucus Together, While Also Reaching Across Political Aisle. Mesabi Daily News. Hanna. Bill. January 23, 2016. June 21, 2016.
  17. http://www.timberjay.com/stories/swanson-entry-roils-dfl-gubernatorial-contest,14150 The Timberjay
  18. News: Minnesota governor 2018: A who's who of possible candidates. 20 February 2018. Minnesota Public Radio. Associated Press. 21 November 2016. ...as both parties aim to replace Gov. Mark Dayton, who has said he won't seek a third term..
  19. News: Shepard. Steven. Minnesota Rep. Nolan won't run for reelection. 20 February 2018. Politico. 9 February 2018. Gov. Mark Dayton — himself a former senator — isn't seeking a third term..
  20. Web site: Crow Wing County DFL convenes, thinks 2018. Brainerd Dispatch. Kayser. Zach. May 1, 2017. May 1, 2017. July 1, 2017. https://web.archive.org/web/20170701213941/http://www.brainerddispatch.com/news/politics/4259315-crow-wing-county-dfl-convenes-thinks-2018. dead.
  21. News: DFL Rep. Debra Hilstrom joins Minn. attorney general race. Star Tribune. 2017-12-29.
  22. Web site: Klobuchar will run again for Senate, rules herself out for governor's race. Star Tribune. December 25, 2016. December 26, 2016. Allison. Sherry.
  23. News: U.S. Rep. Rick Nolan running for re-election, not for governor. Star Tribune. Coolican. J. Patrick. June 2, 2017. June 2, 2017.
  24. Web site: Is a gubernatorial run next for St. Paul Mayor Chris Coleman?. Melo. Frederick. September 18, 2015. St. Paul Pioneer Press. September 19, 2016.
  25. Web site: Q&A: R.T. Rybak on his new gig at the Minneapolis Foundation — and whether or not he'll run for governor. MinnPost. Kimball. Joe. May 4, 2016. September 19, 2016.
  26. Web site: R.T. Rybak says he's here to stay, in a city he loves like a middle-schooler's crush. Star Tribune. Ode. Kim. May 18, 2016. September 19, 2016.
  27. Web site: It's really not too early to think about 2018. Is it?. St. Paul Pioneer Press. Stassen-Berger. Rachel E.. September 1, 2015. June 21, 2016.
  28. Web site: Lt. Gov. Tina Smith will not run for Minnesota governor in 2018. Star Tribune. Lopez. Ricardo. March 17, 2017. March 17, 2017.
  29. Tim Holden and Olé Savior with 0%, other 1%
  30. Web site: Echoing Trump's populist message, Jeff Johnson enters race for governor. St. Paul Pioneer Press. Stassen-Berger. Rachel E.. May 10, 2017. May 10, 2017.
  31. Web site: Jeff Johnson picks Donna Bergstrom as running mate in governor's race. Star Tribune. Van Berkel. Jessie. May 14, 2018. May 14, 2018.
  32. News: Tim Pawlenty makes it official: He's running for governor again . . Coolican . J. Patrick . April 5, 2018 . April 5, 2018.
  33. Web site: Pawlenty picks Fischbach as running mate. Star Tribune. Coolican. J Patrick. May 31, 2018. May 31, 2018.
  34. Web site: Former Medford man launches run for governor. Owatonna People's Press. Morris. William. March 21, 2017. August 22, 2017.
  35. Web site: Woodbury mayor files to run for governor as Republican. Minneapolis Star Tribune. 2017-11-29. 2017-11-30. https://web.archive.org/web/20171130191121/http://www.startribune.com/woodbury-mayor-files-to-run-for-governor-as-republican/460571733/. dead.
  36. Web site: GOP endorses Jeff Johnson for Governor. Kare 11.
  37. Web site: Giuliani Stephens names Backer to ticket in GOP governor bid. Star Tribune. May 2, 2018. May 4, 2018. May 5, 2018. https://web.archive.org/web/20180505065603/http://www.startribune.com/giuliani-stephens-names-backer-to-ticket-in-gop-governor-bid/481514221/. dead.
  38. Web site: MN native Christopher Chamberlin running for governor in 2018. Lease, Lawrence. News Record. December 31, 2016. December 31, 2016.
  39. Web site: As Dayton weighs Franken replacement, who may run in 2018?. Minnesota Public Radio. Pugmire. Tim. December 7, 2017. December 7, 2017.
  40. [The Associated Press]
  41. Web site: Keith Downey, former GOP chair, is running for governor with the message: 'I believe in you.'. St. Paul Pioneer Press. Stassen-Berger. Rachel E.. July 24, 2017. August 22, 2017.
  42. News: Keith Downey, former MN GOP chairman, drops out of governor's race . . Salisbury . Bill . April 18, 2018 . April 18, 2018.
  43. Web site: Ramsey County Commissioner Blake Huffman to run for governor. St. Paul Pioneer Press. April 18, 2017. April 19, 2017.
  44. Web site: Ramsey County's Blake Huffman withdraws from race for MN governor. St. Paul Pioneer Press. Stassen-Berger. Rachel E.. September 3, 2017. September 5, 2017.
  45. Web site: David Osmek says his campaign for Minnesota governor is over. twincities.com. The Associated Press. January 8, 2018. January 8, 2018. The Associated Press.
  46. Web site: Rep. Sarah Anderson: A name for the 2018 statewide mix?. Star Tribune. Coolican. J. Patrick. February 18, 2017. February 24, 2017.
  47. Web site: Michele Bachmann warns about 'radical Islam'. St. Paul Pioneer Press. Montgomery. David. July 19, 2017. July 20, 2017.
  48. Web site: Handicapping the next race for governor: The Republicans. November 29, 2014. March 6, 2015. Lopez. Ricardo. Star Tribune.
  49. Web site: GOP hopefuls for governor seek support from party. Montgomery. David. December 5, 2016. Austin Daily Herald. December 6, 2016.
  50. Web site: Dillon . Nora . May 25, 2018 . Emmer Files For Reelection . June 1, 2018 . emmerforcongress.com.
  51. Web site: Karin Housley pulls in $514K for Senate race; businessman Jerry Trooien to enter fray. 13 April 2018. 1 June 2018.
  52. Web site: Morning Digest: GOP poll gives Tammy Baldwin an early double-digit lead in Wisconsin Senate race. Daily Kos Elections. February 23, 2017. February 24, 2017.
  53. Web site: Pillow mogul Mike Lindell denies report he is considering run for governor. Star Tribune. 22 May 2018.
  54. Web site: Miller out, but plenty of other GOPers mull 1st District bids. Post-Bulletin. Carlson. Heather J.. June 7, 2017. June 13, 2017.
  55. News: Nelson running for Congress. Post-Bulletin. Carlson. Heather J.. October 2, 2017. October 2, 2017. October 3, 2017. https://web.archive.org/web/20171003090555/http://www.postbulletin.com/news/politics/nelson-to-run-for-congress/article_7570f3a4-c88a-5353-9dee-f3a1fc6be2d9.html. dead.
  56. Web site: Talking Points: Erik Paulsen & The 2018 Election. 24 September 2017. June 1, 2018.
  57. Web site: Republican women consider runs for Minnesota office — but so far, few pulling trigger. Golden. Erin. Star Tribune. September 9, 2017. en-US. 2017-09-19.
  58. Web site: Sheriff Rich Stanek running for re-election, not governor, in 2018. Minneapolis Star-Tribune. May 21, 2017. May 22, 2017. J. Patrick. Coolican. May 21, 2017. https://web.archive.org/web/20170521023247/http://www.startribune.com/sheriff-rich-stanek-running-for-re-election-not-governor-in-2018/423378013/. dead.
  59. Web site: Politicians and citizens implore Minnesotans to legalize marijuana at 4/20 rally . May 10, 2017 . City College News . Dickson, Janiese.
  60. News: Legal pot advocates join Minnesota races for state, federal offices. Golden. Erin. June 16, 2018. Star Tribune. June 17, 2018.
  61. Web site: 2018 Governor Race Ratings for October 26, 2018. The Cook Political Report. en. 2021-04-10.
  62. News: The Washington Post's gubernatorial race ratings. The Washington Post. October 16, 2018.
  63. Web site: 2018 Governor Forecast FiveThirtyEight. FiveThirtyEight. 17 October 2018. en. October 17, 2018.
  64. Web site: 2018 Gubernatorial Ratings . Inside Elections . en. 2017-11-15.
  65. Web site: Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball » 2018 Governor. www.centerforpolitics.org. en-US. 2017-11-15.
  66. Web site: 2018 Governor Races. RealClearPolitics. October 9, 2018.
  67. Web site: 2018 Governor Race Ratings. Daily Kos. June 5, 2018.
  68. Web site: 2018 Midterm Power Ranking. Fox News. 10 October 2021.
  69. Web site: Politico Race Ratings. Politico.
  70. Web site: 2018 Governor Elections: As November Nears, More Governors' Races Become Tossups . www.governing.com . en . 2018-07-18 . October 21, 2018 . https://web.archive.org/web/20181021005343/http://www.governing.com/topics/politics/gov-governors-races-july-ratings.html . dead.
  71. Web site: Debates get race for Minnesota governor off to a roaring start. Star Tribune.
  72. Web site: Johnson, Walz spar at State Fair governor's debate.
  73. Web site: Johnson, Walz Participate in First Debate in Nisswa | KSTP.com . 2018-08-18 . 2018-08-19 . https://web.archive.org/web/20180819051126/https://kstp.com/politics/jeff-johnson-tim-walz-participate-debate-nisswa-minnesota-gubernatorial-race/5034677/ . dead .
  74. Web site: Almanac | Jeff Johnson + Tim Walz in the first post-primary TV debate | Season 2018 | Episode 48.
  75. Chris Wright (GLC) with 2%
  76. Chris Wright (GLC) with 4%
  77. Chris Wright (GLC) with 1%
  78. Web site: Daily Kos Elections' statewide election results by congressional and legislative districts. Daily Kos. 11 August 2020.
  79. News: Minnesota gubernatorial election exit poll . November 20, 2018 . . en.