2020 Croatian parliamentary election explained

Election Name:2020 Croatian parliamentary election
Type:parliamentary
Opinion Polls:Opinion polling for the 2020 Croatian parliamentary election
Previous Election:2016 Croatian parliamentary election
Previous Year:2016
Outgoing Members:List of members of the Sabor, 2016–2020
Next Election:2024 Croatian parliamentary election
Next Year:2024
Elected Members:List of members of the Sabor, 2020–2024
Seats For Election:All 151 seats in the Croatian Parliament
Majority Seats:76
Election Date:5 July 2020
Turnout:46.44% (8.18pp)
1Blank:Popular Vote
2Blank:Percentage
3Blank:Party vote
4Blank:Swing
Party1:HDZ
Alliance1:HDZ-led coalition
Leader Since1:17 July 2016
Last Election1:61 seats, 36.58%
Seat Change1: 5
1Data1:621,035
2Data1:37.26%
4Data1:0.68pp
Candidate2:Davor Bernardić
Party2:SDP
Alliance2:Restart
Leader Since2:26 November 2016
Last Election2:45 seats, 33.45%
Seat Change2:4
1Data2:414,645
2Data2:24.87%
4Data2:8.58pp
Candidate3:Miroslav Škoro
Party3:DPMŠ
Alliance3:DPMŠ-led coalition
Leader Since3:29 February 2020
Last Election3:Did not contest
Seat Change3: 16
1Data3:181,493
2Data3:10.89%
4Data3:New
Candidate4:Božo Petrov
Party4:Most
Leader Since4:17 November 2012
Last Election4:13 seats, 9.84%
Seat Change4:5
1Data4:123,194
2Data4:7.39%
4Data4:2.45pp
Candidate5:Collective leadership
Party5:We Can!
Alliance5:Green–Left
Leader Since5:10 February 2019
Last Election5:Did not contest
Seat Change5:7
1Data5:116,483
2Data5:6.99%
4Data5:New
Image6:Dalija_Orešković.png
Candidate6:Dalija Orešković
Party6:IP
Alliance6:IPPFocus
Last Election6:Did not contest
Seat Change6:3
1Data6:66,399
2Data6:3.98%
4Data6:New
Map Size:350px
Government
Posttitle:Government after election
Before Election:Cabinet of Andrej Plenković I
Before Party:HDZHNS
After Election:Cabinet of Andrej Plenković II
After Party:HDZSDSS
Country:Croatia

Parliamentary elections were held in Croatia on 5 July 2020.[1] They were the tenth parliamentary elections since the first multi-party elections in 1990 and elected the 151 members of the Croatian Parliament. 140 Members of Parliament were elected from geographical electoral districts in Croatia, three MPs were chosen by the Croatian diaspora and eight MPs came from the ranks of citizens registered as belonging to any of the 22 constitutionally recognized national minorities.

During April 2020, there had been widespread media speculation that the election would be called earlier than originally planned, due to the uncertainty created by the still-ongoing worldwide pandemic of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19).[2] Namely, though the spread of the virus had been brought under control by that time, fears still persisted that the number of infected cases could once again begin to rise in autumn and that this could, therefore, impede or even prevent the holding of the election.[3] Thus, several prominent members of the Croatian Democratic Union (HDZ) – the senior partner in the ruling coalition, (including Speaker of the Parliament Gordan Jandroković) had voiced their support for the proposal that the elections be held some time during the summer.[4] [5] [6] In addition, in early May several sources from within both the ruling HDZ and the opposition Social Democratic Party (SDP) stated that parliament could be dissolved as early as mid-May, with elections then taking place in late June or early July.[7] On 14 May 2020, Prime Minister Andrej Plenković confirmed that the government had indeed reached an agreement with the parliamentary opposition on the holding of an early election and the dissolution of parliament thus took place on 18 May.[8] [9] This entailed that President Zoran Milanović had to formally call the election by 17 July 2020 at the latest.

In the elections the ruling Christian-democratic HDZ faced its main challenge from the centre-left Restart Coalition chaired by SDP leader Davor Bernardić, which consisted of the SDP and several smaller parties (such as the Croatian Peasant Party, Civic-Liberal Alliance, Croatian Party of Pensioners and Istrian Democratic Assembly).[10] [11] Opinion polls suggested that a conservative coalition led by 2019 presidential candidate Miroslav Škoro and of Škoro's Homeland Movement party, some of the parties of the Croatian Sovereignists coalition and several other smaller right-wing parties,[12] would become the third-largest grouping in parliament, while the centre-right Bridge of Independent Lists (Most) – which finished a strong third in both the 2015 and 2016 elections, and which had supported Škoro's presidential campaign, could be reduced to the role of a minor parliamentary party.

The ruling HDZ obtained an upset victory over the Restart Coalition, who had previously been leading in opinion polls for several weeks prior to the elections. The Homeland Movement-led coalition finished third, with Most in fourth place. Two new coalitions, the Green–Left Coalition consisting of We Can!, the New Left, the Worker's Front, ORaH, Zagreb is OURS and For the City, and the centrist Party with a First and Last NamePametnoFocus coalition, entered parliament for the first time.[13]

Background

In the previous parliamentary election, held on 11 September 2016, the center-right Croatian Democratic Union (HDZ) won an upset plurality of seats - receiving 61 MPs in the parliament, while the opposition People's Coalition won 54 seats.[14] Therefore, HDZ chairman Andrej Plenković began talks on the formation of a governing majority with the third-placed Bridge of Independent Lists (Most) party, as well as with MPs representing national minorities. Meanwhile, as a result of the defeat of his coalition the SDP chairman (and People's Coalition Prime Ministerial candidate), Zoran Milanović, announced his withdrawal from politics.[15] A few weeks after the election, HDZ and Most successfully concluded their coalition talks and agreed to form a government that would rely on the outside support of the 8 Members of Parliament representing the national minorities. As a result, on 10 October 2016, Plenković presented 91 signatures of support from MPs to President Kolinda Grabar-Kitarović and she, therefore, proceeded to give him a 30-day mandate (expiring on 9 November 2016) to form a government. Thereafter, Parliament formally convened on 14 October 2016 with the election of Most chairman Božo Petrov as a Speaker, while a parliamentary vote held on 19 October 2016 confirmed the proposed Cabinet of Andrej Plenković by a vote of 91 in favor, 45 against and 3 abstentions.[16] Thus, Plenković became the 12th Prime Minister of Croatia, while his cabinet became the fourteenth to hold the office since the first multi-party election took place in 1990 – while Croatia was still a constituent republic of SFR Yugoslavia.

Most left the governing coalition in April 2017, amid a disagreement with the HDZ over Finance Minister Zdravko Marić's alleged withholding of information relating to financial irregularities in Agrokor - one of Croatia's largest firms, which had brought about a crisis due to Agrokor not being able to pay back its loans. Thus, as the HDZ-led government was left without a clear parliamentary majority (and a no-confidence vote in Marić was only narrowly avoided by a 75–75 split vote in Parliament), the possibility of an early election (the third in 18 months) greatly increased during May. However, in June the Plenković government managed to regain a parliamentary majority by forming a new cabinet, which included members of the center-left Croatian People's Party - Liberal Democrats (HNS-LD). Yet, the decision to enter into government with the HDZ - made by the HNS-LD's central body, was quite unexpected and thus immediately created a split within the HNS-LD. Namely, only five of the party's nine MPs decided to support the newly formed coalition, while the remaining four (including former party chair Vesna Pusić) opted instead to form a new political party - named the Civic-Liberal Alliance (Glas), and remain in the opposition.

Prime Minister Andrej Plenković and his HDZ party have faced criticism from numerous activists, public figures and political opponents for allegedly dissolving the Parliament several months in advance in order to avoid holding elections during a major economic crisis (caused by the COVID-19 pandemic), which is expected to have a severe impact on Croatia in autumn, once the financial losses in the tourism sector are included in economic projections.

Many citizens of Zagreb have accused the government and the ruling HDZ party of leaving them unprotected for several months by dissolving the Parliament and by failing to adopt the necessary legal measures to deal with the earthquake damage before doing so. Namely, instead of pursuing the adoption of a set of emergency laws, the government has decided to delay any new legal framework on this issue by at least 3 to 6 months. This caused activists from several public platforms - mainly from Green-Left coalition, to gathered on St. Mark's Square on 17 May 2020, where they remained for 24 hours in order to protest against the resolution on the early dissolution of parliament.[17]

As soon as parliament was dissolved the HDZ's local branch in the city of Vukovar (the site of one of the most major and emotionally symbolic battles in the Croatian War of Independence) decided to cut its ties with the party's central organization, claiming that they felt that their city has been misused for political gain and that the government had also failed to provide it with opportunities for economic development. Thus, this former branch of the HDZ will contest the election as part of some other coalition.[18]

Outgoing 9th Assembly of Parliament

The following is a partisan makeup of the 9th Assembly of the Croatian Parliament as of 18 May 2020:[19]

On 18 May 2020, the 9th Assembly dissolved itself by a vote of 105 in favor.[20]

Electoral system

The 151 members of the Croatian Parliament are elected from 10 geographical and two special electoral districts:[21]

Opinion polls

See main article: Opinion polling for the 2020 Croatian parliamentary election.

Seat predictions

Results

The ruling HDZ obtained an upset victory over the Restart Coalition, who had previously been leading in opinion polls for several weeks prior to the elections. The HDZ likely received a boost from public approval over its handling of the COVID-19 pandemic. The pandemic also caused voter turnout to be the lowest since the first democratic elections in 1990, with under half of registered voters participating.

Results by constituency

ConstituencyHDZRestartDPMŠMostGreen-LeftIP - P - FHNSNS R
data-sort-type="number" %data-sort-type="number" Seatsdata-sort-type="number" %data-sort-type="number" Seatsdata-sort-type="number" %data-sort-type="number" Seatsdata-sort-type="number" %data-sort-type="number" Seatsdata-sort-type="number" %data-sort-type="number" Seatsdata-sort-type="number" %data-sort-type="number" Seatsdata-sort-type="number" %data-sort-type="number" Seatsdata-sort-type="number" %data-sort-type="number" Seats
I28.3522.339.018.1121.136.310.2-0.2-
II34.3624.6413.527.915.513.5-0.6-3.2-
III29.5537.766.212.8-3.4-3.7-5.815.51
IV44.0820.5316.634.8-2.2-2.1-4.6-0.2-
V47.8819.2319.835.801.5-1.6-0.4-0.4-
VI37.9624.2411.027.019.513.7-0.5-part of Restart
VII35.9624.549.516.8110.516.410.4-0.3-
VIII22.5444.584.7-5.818.513.6-0.5-0.2-
IX47.5817.2311.9210.012.4-2.7-0.4-0.3-
X40.9720.5310.3112.124.3-5.410.8-0.2-
XI63.03----11.101.8-0.5---0.4-
Total37.36624.94110.9167.487.074.031.311.01
Source: Results[22]
Note: The eight members elected in Electoral district XII are not shown here.

Aftermath

Acknowledging his party's defeat in the legislative elections, Davor Bernardić stepped down as the leader of Social Democrats.[23]

On 6 July 2020 HDZ leader Andrej Plenković announced that he had collected the support of the 76 MPs needed to form a government, following coalition negotiations. He announced that he had received support from his party and allies, the HNS – LD, the NS-R, and all 8 representatives of the national minorities. The Second Plenković cabinet was confirmed by Parliament on 23 July 2020.[24]

See also

Notes and References

  1. News: Croatian president sets parliamentary vote for July 5 . 20 May 2020 . . . May 20, 2020 . en.
  2. Web site: Puhovski o nagađanjima kada će biti izbori . vijesti.hrt.hr . 20 May 2020.
  3. Web site: 'Nema se što čekati': Poznato kad bismo mogli na parlamentarne izbore . tportal.hr . 20 May 2020.
  4. Web site: Branko Bačić nema ništa protiv izbora u srpnju: 'Da se mene pita ja bih ih odmah raspisao' . dnevno.hr . 30 April 2020 . 20 May 2020.
  5. Web site: JANDROKOVIĆ: "Izbori početkom ljeta su sigurniji, nego se izložiti riziku jeseni" . nacional.hr . 20 May 2020.
  6. Web site: Anušić: Realno je da izbori budu na ljeto . glasistre.hr . 20 May 2020.
  7. Web site: HDZ uz podršku SDP-a raspušta Sabor već u svibnju, a parlamentarni izbori održavaju se najkasnije u srpnju? . . 24 April 2020 . 20 May 2020.
  8. Web site: Izbori najkasnije 12. srpnja. Plenković: Čuo sam se s Milanovićem, sve je na njemu . index.hr . 20 May 2020.
  9. Web site: Sabor koji se upravo raspustio zasjedao je 421 dan, a zastupnici su odradili 1702 točke . vecernji.hr . 20 May 2020.
  10. Web site: Predstavljena oporbena "Restart" koalicija: "Naše ime je naš program. Ovo je stožer za obranu Hrvatske od HDZ-a" . dnevnik.hr . 20 May 2020.
  11. Web site: IDS dio koalicije- Restart prihvatio uvjete za koaliranje. Glas Istre HR.
  12. Web site: Zapeli pregovori Škore sa Suverenistima i Mostom . index.hr . 20 May 2020.
  13. Web site: EKSKLUZIVNO! RTL donosi rezultate istraživanje političkih preferencija po izbornim jedinicama. Vijesti hr, Damira. Gregoret. Vijesti.
  14. Web site: Oni su pobjednici u svojim izbornim jedinicama . dnevnik.hr . 20 May 2020.
  15. Web site: Zoran Milanović podnio ostavku na mjesto čelnika SDP-a . evarazdin.hr . 12 September 2016 . 20 May 2020.
  16. Web site: Dobili smo Vladu, Plenković je postao novi premijer, podržao ga je 91 zastupnik dok je 45 bilo protiv . telegram.hr . 20 May 2020.
  17. Web site: 'ZAGREB VAM OVO NEĆE ZABORAVITI!' Ogorčeni čelnici stranaka ljevice prosvjeduju na Markovu trgu, najavljuju da će tamo ostati do sutra . jutarnji.hr . 17 May 2020 . 21 May 2020.
  18. Web site: Koliko je ovaj snažan udar iz Vukovara opasan za HDZ na izborima. Telegram.hr.
  19. Web site: Stranački sastav Hrvatskog sabora 18-5-2020 . izbori.hr . 28 May 2020.
  20. Web site: 9th Croatian Parliament dissolved . sabor.hr . 19 May 2020.
  21. http://www.ipu.org/parline-e/reports/2077_B.htm Electoral system
  22. Web site: Izbori za zastupnike u Hrvatski Sabor (05.07.2020.) . Elections for members of the Croatian Parliament (July 5, 2020) . 6 March 2023 . Državno izborno povjerenstvo Republike Hrvatske . hr.
  23. Web site: Croatia's opposition leader stepping down after vote defeat.
  24. Web site: HDZ's Andrej Plenkovic ready to form new government in Croatia | bne IntelliNews. 6 July 2020.