2018 Colorado gubernatorial election explained

Election Name:	2018 Colorado gubernatorial election
Country:	Colorado
Type:	presidential
Ongoing:	no
Previous Election:	2014 Colorado gubernatorial election
Previous Year:	2014
Next Election:	2022 Colorado gubernatorial election
Next Year:	2022
Election Date:	November 6, 2018
Image1:	File:Jared Polis official photo (cropped).jpg
Nominee1:	Jared Polis
Party1:	Democratic Party (United States)
Running Mate1:	Dianne Primavera
Popular Vote1:	1,348,888
Percentage1:	53.42%
Nominee2:	Walker Stapleton
Party2:	Republican Party (United States)
Running Mate2:	Lang Sias
Popular Vote2:	1,080,801
Percentage2:	42.80%
Map Size:	250px
Governor
Before Election:	John Hickenlooper
Before Party:	Democratic Party (United States)
After Election:	Jared Polis
After Party:	Democratic Party (United States)

The 2018 Colorado gubernatorial election took place on November 6, 2018, to elect the next governor of Colorado. Incumbent Democratic governor John Hickenlooper was term-limited and could not seek a third consecutive term. The primary election was held on June 26.^[1]

The major party nominees were Democratic U.S. Representative Jared Polis and Republican State Treasurer Walker Stapleton. The general election took place on November 6, 2018, with Polis winning by 268,000 votes.^{[2] [3]} This was the first Colorado gubernatorial election in which both major party candidates received over one million votes.

Polis's victory marked the fourth straight election in which Colorado elected a Democratic governor and the first time in American electoral history that an openly gay politician was elected governor of a state.

Democratic primary

With Hickenlooper ineligible to run for a third term in office, multiple Democratic politicians vied for the party's nomination for governor. Prior to his resignation in 2015, former lieutenant governor Joseph Garcia was seen as a probable candidate for governor in 2018.^[4]

Candidates

Nominated

• Jared Polis, U.S. Representative^{[5] [6]}

Eliminated in the primary

• Mike Johnston, former state senator^[7]
• Cary Kennedy, former Colorado State Treasurer and former CFO and Deputy Mayor of Denver^{[8] [9] [10]}
• Donna Lynne, Lieutenant Governor of Colorado^[11]

Eliminated at the convention

• Erik Underwood, former congressional aide, Republican candidate for GA-10 in 2007 and Republican candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2016

Withdrawn

• Noel Ginsburg, businessman^[12]
• Ed Perlmutter, U.S. Representative (running for reelection)^[13]

Declined

• Joseph Garcia, former lieutenant governor^[4]
• Steve Lebsock, State Representative (was running for State Treasurer before switching to the Republican Party, thus disqualifying him from the Democratic Primary)^{[14] [15] [16] [17]}
• Michael Merrifield, State Senator^{[18] [19] [20]}
• Joe Neguse, former executive director of the Colorado Department of Regulatory Agencies and nominee for secretary of state in 2014 (running for CO-02)^{[21] [22]}
• Joe Salazar, State Representative (running for Attorney General)^[23]
• Ken Salazar, former U.S. Senator and former United States Secretary of the Interior^[24]

Caucus results

On March 6, 2018, Democrats of precincts across Colorado met and voted how many delegates each candidate who was caucusing on the ballot would get. As of March 11, 2018 at 7:30 p.m., 96.83% of precincts had reported and added up to the below results.^[25]

• Cary Kennedy (11,700; 49.2%)
• Jared Polis (7,784; 32.7%)
• Mike Johnston (2,086; 8.8%)
• Noel Ginsburg (433; 1.8%), dropped out of race
• Erik Underwood (100; 0.4%)
• Uncommitted (1,668; 7%)

Polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Mike Johnston	Cary Kennedy	Donna Lynne	Jared Polis	Other	Undecided
Strategies 360	May 29 – June 6, 2018	387	± 5.0%	12%	23%	2%	align=center	34%	–	29%
Magellan Strategies (R)	May 30–31, 2018	503	± 4.4%	9%	18%	3%	align=center	31%	–	align=center	39%
TargetPoint/GQR	March 2018	–	–	–	18%	–	18%	12%	align=center	52%
Magellan Strategies (R)	March 20–23, 2018	410	± 4.8%	8%	23%	5%	align=center	27%	1%	align=center	36%
University of Colorado Boulder	November 9–15, 2017	357	± 3.5%	4%	6%	4%	align=center	24%	2%^[26]	align=center	58%

Results

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominated

• Walker Stapleton, Colorado State Treasurer^[27]

Eliminated in the primary

• Greg Lopez, former mayor of Parker^[28]
• Victor Mitchell, former state representative^[29]
• Doug Robinson, businessman^[30]

Eliminated at the convention

• Steve Barlock, former Trump campaigner, Colorado Republican National Alternate Delegate and Elector^[31]
• Cynthia Coffman, Colorado Attorney General^[31]
• Barry Farah, businessman^[31]
• Lew Gaiter, Larimer County Commissioner^[31]

Withdrawn

• George Brauchler, District Attorney for Colorado's 18th Judicial District (running for attorney general)^{[32] [33] [34]}
• Jim Rundberg, businessman^[35]
• JoAnne Silva, retired banker^[36]
• Tom Tancredo, former U.S. Representative, candidate for governor in 2014, Constitution Party nominee for governor in 2010, and candidate for President of the United States in 2008^{[37] [38]}

Declined

• John Elway, general manager of the Denver Broncos and retired NFL player^{[39] [40]}
• Owen Hill, state senator and candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2014 (running for CO-05)^{[41] [42]}
• Steve House, Chairman of the Colorado Republican Party and candidate for governor in 2014^{[43] [44]}
• Kent Thiry, Chairman and CEO of DaVita Inc.^[45]
• Brian Watson, businessman and candidate for the State House in 2012 (running for State Treasurer)^{[46] [47]}

Caucus results

Based on information shared by some key counties, as well as a recent survey, the following are believed to be results of the Republican Caucus from key counties.^[48]

Pueblo County

• Steve Barlock – 3.14%
• Cynthia Coffman – 7.55%
• Greg Lopez – 16.35%
• Victor Mitchell – 23.90%
• Doug Robinson – 3.15%
• Walker Stapleton – 45.91%

Douglas County

• Steve Barlock – 32.5%
• Cynthia Coffman – 4.6%
• Lew Gaiter III – 2.2%
• Greg Lopez – 18.8%
• Victor Mitchell – 7.7%
• Doug Robinson – 2.2%
• Walker Stapleton – 23.2%
• Tom Tancredo (dropped out of the race) – 1.6%
• Uncommitted – 7.2%

Polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Cynthia Coffman	Greg Lopez	Victor Mitchell	Doug Robinson	Walker Stapleton	Other	Undecided
Magellan Strategies (R)	June 6–7, 2018	593	± 4.0%	–	10%	23%	4%	align=center	36%	–	27%
TargetPoint/GQR	March 2018	–	–	7%	–	–	–	align=center	15%	16%	align=center	62%
Magellan Strategies (R)	February 26–27, 2018	647	± 3.9%	13%	–	5%	8%	align=center	26%	9%	align=center	39%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	George Brauchler	Cynthia Coffman	Victor Mitchell	Doug Robinson	Walker Stapleton	Tom Tancredo	Undecided
University of Colorado Boulder	November 9–15, 2017	250	± 3.5%	4%	6%	1%	1%	8%	align=center	25%	align=center	54%
Braynard Group (R)	September 26–28, 2017	400	± 3.2%	7%	6%	1%	0.3%	8.5%	align=center	22%	align=center	54%

Results

Third party and independent candidates

Candidates

Declared

• Paul Noel Fiorino (Independent), perennial candidate^[49]
• Marcus Giavanni (Independent), radio host^[50]
• Bill Hammons (Unity Party of America), insurance agent, chairman and founder of the Unity Party of America, and candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2014 and 2016^[51]
• Scott Helker (Libertarian)^{[52] [53]}

General election

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
The Cook Political Report^[54]		October 26, 2018
The Washington Post^[55]		November 5, 2018
FiveThirtyEight^[56]		November 5, 2018
Rothenberg Political Report^[57]		November 1, 2018
Sabato's Crystal Ball^[58]		November 5, 2018
RealClearPolitics^[59]		November 4, 2018
Daily Kos^[60]		November 5, 2018
Fox News^[61]		November 5, 2018
Politico^[62]		November 5, 2018
Governing^[63]		November 5, 2018

Polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Jared Polis (D)	Walker Stapleton (R)	Scott Helker (L)	Other	Undecided
Magellan Strategies	October 29–30, 2018	500	± 4.4%	align=center	45%	40%	3%	1%^[64]	11%
Keating Research/OnSight Public Affairs/Martin Campaigns	October 25–30, 2018	517	± 4.3%	align=center	50%	42%	4%	1%	4%
University of Colorado/YouGov	October 12–17, 2018	800	± 3.5%	align=center	54%	42%	3%	–	2%
Magellan Strategies	October 8–10, 2018	500	± 4.4%	align=center	47%	40%	4%	0%^[65]	9%
Keating Research/Magellan Strategies	September 18–20, 2018	600	± 4.0%	align=center	47%	40%	1%	0%	11%
Kaiser Family Foundation/CO Health Foundation/SSRS	August 15 – September 19, 2018	1,585	–	align=center	44%	33%	–	–	21%
Public Policy Polling (D-CO Democratic Party)	June 27–28, 2018	608	–	align=center	47%	40%	–	–	13%
Strategies 360	May 29 – June 6, 2018	500	± 4.4%	align=center	42%	37%	–	3%	18%

with Cary Kennedy

with Tom Tancredo

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Jared Polis (D)	Tom Tancredo (R)	Other	Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D-RBI/Polis)	December 4–5, 2017	770	± 3.5%	align=center	46%	38%	–	16%
Braynard Group (R)	September 26–28, 2017	1,000	± 3.2%	25%	25%	3%	align=center	47%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Cary Kennedy (D)	Tom Tancredo (R)	Other	Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D-RBI/Polis)	December 4–5, 2017	770	± 3.5%	align=center	45%	38%	–	17%
Keating Research (D)	November 9–13, 2017	500	± 4.4%	align=center	50%	34%	3%	13%

Results

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

• Conejos (largest town: Manassa)

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

• Chaffee (largest city: Salida)
• Garfield (largest municipality: Glenwood Springs)

By congressional district

Polis won 4 of 7 congressional districts.^[66]

District	Stapleton	Polis	Representative
		23.7%	73.05%		Diana DeGette
		34.48%	66.42%		Joe Neguse
		49.96%	46.26%		Scott Tipton
		57.67%	38.11%		Ken Buck
		56.64%	38.97%		Doug Lamborn
		42.36%	54.29%		Jason Crow
		38.38%	57.03%		Ed Perlmutter

External links

• Candidates at Vote Smart
• Candidates at Ballotpedia

Official campaign websites

• Paul Fiorino (U) for Governor
• Marcus Giavanni (I) for Governor
• Bill Hammons (U) for Governor
• Scott Helker (L) for Governor
• Jared Polis (D) for Governor
• Walker Stapleton (R) for Governor

Notes and References

1. Web site: 2018 election calendar . Colorado Secretary of State . State of Colorado . 2018-05-23 .
2. Web site: Jared Polis, Walker Stapleton face off in a Colorado governor's race that became testy from the start . John Foley. June 26, 2018 . The Denver Post . 2018-06-28 .
3. Web site: Colorado Governor Election Results 2018 . . January 19, 2020.
4. Web site: 2015-11-10. Lt. Gov. Joe Garcia to step down for higher education role. 2021-10-08. The Denver Post. en-US.
5. Web site: Jared Polis to join crowded Democratic field for Colorado governor. ColoradoPolitics.com. Marcus. Peter. June 11, 2017. June 11, 2017.
6. Web site: Jared Polis to join crowded 2018 race for governor, tells The Post he wants "a Colorado that works for everybody". The Denver Post. Matthews. Mark K.. June 11, 2017. June 11, 2017.
7. Web site: Mike Johnston to announce run for Colorado governor in 2018. Nicholas Riccardi. Associated Press. 2017-01-17. January 16, 2017.
8. Web site: OK, Colorado. Let's talk about the 2018 governor's race.. Hutchins. Corey. November 11, 2016. The Colorado Independent. November 12, 2016.
9. Web site: The race for Colorado governor in 2018 is starting to take shape. The Denver Post. Matthews. Mark K.. December 31, 2016. January 1, 2017.
10. Web site: Cary Kennedy says she's 'considering' run for governor as Dems salute Salazar. The Colorado Statesman. Luning. Ernest. March 23, 2017. April 2, 2017. https://web.archive.org/web/20170403111350/https://www.coloradostatesman.com/cary-kennedy-says-shes-considering-run-governor-dems-salute-salazar/. April 3, 2017. dead.
11. News: Prater . Erin . September 7, 2017 . Colorado Lt. Gov Donna Lynne formally enters race for governor . Colorado Politics . September 7, 2017.
12. Web site: With a heavy heart… . Noel for Colorado . 2018-03-20. March 20, 2018 .
13. News: Frank. John. Mathews. Mark. As door closes on Rep. Ed Perlmutter's run for governor, will it widen for Lt. Gov. Donna Lynne?. 16 July 2017. Denver Post. 12 July 2017.
14. Web site: Whaddya know: Steve Lebsock really IS interested in the governor's race. ColoradoPolitics.com. Njegomir. Dan. January 31, 2017. February 1, 2017.
15. Web site: Rep. Steve Lebsock announces run for state treasurer. ColoradoPolitics.com. Marcus. Peter. March 25, 2017. March 26, 2017. March 26, 2017. https://web.archive.org/web/20170326231315/http://coloradopolitics.com/steve-lebsock-announces-run-state-treasurer/. dead.
16. Web site: Former Rep. Steve Lebsock's decision to join GOP likely disqualifies him from treasurer's race . April 2, 2018 . https://web.archive.org/web/20180403052127/https://www.durangoherald.com/articles/211764 . April 3, 2018 . dead .
17. Web site: Colorado Revised Statutes Title 1. Elections § 1-4-601 - FindLaw. May 22, 2018.
18. Web site: Democrats headed for a 'free-for-all' in next guv's race?. ColoradoPolitics.com. Marcus. Peter. December 5, 2016. December 6, 2016. December 20, 2016. https://web.archive.org/web/20161220224325/http://coloradopolitics.com/uncategorized/democrats-headed-free-next-guvs-race/. dead.
19. Web site: Colorado's own Bernie Sanders mulls a run for governor. Njegomir, Dan. The Gazette. December 12, 2016. December 12, 2016.
20. Web site: Congressman Ed Perlmutter officially declares he's running for governor of Colorado. The Colorado Statesman. Luning. Ernest. April 9, 2017. April 10, 2017. https://web.archive.org/web/20170411135242/https://www.coloradostatesman.com/congressman-ed-perlmutter-officially-declares-hes-running-governor-colorado/. April 11, 2017. dead.
21. Web site: Ed Perlmutter expected to announce a run for governor. ColoradoPolitics.com. Marcus. Peter. March 23, 2017. March 23, 2017. https://web.archive.org/web/20170324173849/http://coloradopolitics.com/ed-perlmutter-expected-announce-run-governor-soon/. March 24, 2017. dead. mdy-all.
22. News: Joe Neguse declares run for Jared Polis' seat in Congress. The Denver Post. Matthews. Mark K.. June 13, 2017. June 13, 2017.
23. Web site: Rep. Joe Salazar rules out run for governor for a shot at attorney general. March 10, 2017. Goodland, Marianne. The Colorado Independent. March 11, 2017.
24. Web site: Why I'm not running for Colorado governor in 2018. The Denver Post. Salazar. Ken. March 22, 2017. March 23, 2017.
25. Web site: Caucus Results . Colorado Democratic Party . 2018-02-03 . June 15, 2018 . https://web.archive.org/web/20180615163649/https://www.coloradodems.org/caucus-results/ . dead .
26. Noel Ginsburg* 2%. *Withdrawn.
27. News: Bunch . Joey . September 23, 2017 . It's official: Walker Stapleton joins the race for Colorado governor . Colorado Politics . September 24, 2017.
28. Web site: Greg Lopez for Governor . June 17, 2018.
29. Bunch, Joey. Republican Victor Mitchell is officially in the race for Colorado governor. ColoradoPolitics.com, February 14, 2017. Retrieved: 2017-02-14.
30. News: Doug Robinson is on the ballot in GOP gubernatorial primary . Luning . Ernest . April 26, 2018 . ColoradoPolitics . June 17, 2018.
31. News: Luning . Ernest . 2018-04-14 . RESULTS: Stapleton, Lopez win spots in GOP gubernatorial primary . Colorado Politics . 2018-04-14.
32. Web site: Republican George Brauchler announces bid for Colorado governor in 2018. The Denver Post. Frank. John. April 5, 2017. April 5, 2017.
33. Web site: George Brauchler, new DA in Colorado's 18th Judicial District. The Denver Post. Fender. Jessica. January 5, 2013. August 8, 2017.
34. News: Lauricello . Ann . 2017-11-13 . George Brauchler announces drops out of governor's race . Fox 31 Denver website . 2017-11-13.
35. 983099034125684736. JimRundberg. The Lord Jesus has redirected me. I am now a Presidential Candidate for 2020!. April 8, 2018.
36. News: Luning . Ernest . 2017-08-28 . Former Republican gubernatorial candidate JoAnne Silva endorses George Brauchler. Colorado Politics . 2017-08-29.
37. News: Tom Tancredo Makes Colorado Gubernatorial Run Official. 2017-10-31. en.
38. News: Tom Tancredo Withdraws From Governor's Race . January 30, 2018 . CBS4 Denver . January 30, 2018.
39. Web site: Would Elway run for governor? Or, is it just not his game?. ColoradoPolitics.com. Marcus. Peter. December 12, 2016. January 2, 2017.
40. Web site: Elway: 'I'm not running for governor'. KUSA. Rittiman. Brandon. Klis. Mike. January 2, 2017. January 2, 2017.
41. Web site: The State of the 2018 Governor's Race. Colorado Pols. January 12, 2017. April 2, 2017.
42. Web site: Colorado Spring's state Sen. Owen Hill to challenge U.S. Rep. Doug Lamborn in 5th Congressional District. ColoradoPolitics.com. Marcus. Peter. April 1, 2017. April 2, 2017.
43. Web site: Run for guv? Stay put? GOP chief to decide in first half of January. ColoradoPolitics.com. Marcus. Peter. December 1, 2016. December 17, 2016.
44. Web site: Colorado GOP chairman Steve House won't seek second term after tumultuous tenure. The Denver Post. Frank. John. January 23, 2017. March 9, 2017.
45. News: DaVita CEO Kent Thiry says he won't run for Colorado governor . . Matthews . Mark K. . July 24, 2017.
46. Web site: An early look at the 2018 Republican race for Colorado governor. The Colorado Independent. Hutchins. Corey. March 27, 2017. April 2, 2017.
47. Web site: 'I've been battle-tested': Republican Brian Watson jumps in crowded primary for Colorado state treasurer. Colorado Politics. Luning. Ernest. October 20, 2017. October 21, 2017.
48. Web site: Colorado Republican Caucus Results: Walker Stapleton Wins Key Counties . . Roberts . Michael . March 12, 2018.
49. Web site: 35 unaffiliated, RTD candidates file for Colorado ballot. July 12, 2018 .
50. Web site: Marcus Giavanni for Governor . June 17, 2018 . March 23, 2018 . https://web.archive.org/web/20180323050506/http://marcusgiavanniforgovernor.com/_index.php . dead .
51. Web site: Candidates already lining up for 2018 governor's race . Grand Junction Daily Sentinel . March 18, 2017 . October 16, 2017 . https://web.archive.org/web/20171016014527/http://www.gjsentinel.com/news/articles/candidates-already-lining-up-for-2018-governors-ra . dead .
52. Web site: Libertarian candidate for Colorado governor Scott Helker has eye on future races . January 23, 2018 . Colorado Politics . March 24, 2018.
53. Web site: Candidates. May 22, 2018.
54. Web site: 2018 Governor Race Ratings for October 26, 2018. The Cook Political Report. en. 2021-04-10.
55. News: The Washington Post's gubernatorial race ratings. The Washington Post. October 16, 2018.
56. Web site: 2018 Governor Forecast FiveThirtyEight. FiveThirtyEight. October 17, 2018. en. October 17, 2018.
57. Web site: 2018 Gubernatorial Ratings Inside Elections. insideelections.com. en. 2017-11-15.
58. Web site: Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball » 2018 Governor. www.centerforpolitics.org. en-US. 2017-11-15.
59. Web site: 2018 Governor Races. RealClearPolitics. October 9, 2018.
60. Web site: 2018 Governor Race Ratings. Daily Kos. June 5, 2018.
61. Web site: 2018 Midterm Power Ranking. Fox News. October 10, 2021.
62. Web site: Politico Race Ratings. Politico.
63. Web site: 2018 Governor Elections: As November Nears, More Governors' Races Become Tossups . www.governing.com . en . 2018-07-18 . October 21, 2018 . https://web.archive.org/web/20181021005343/http://www.governing.com/topics/politics/gov-governors-races-july-ratings.html . dead .
64. Bill Hammons (U) with 1%
65. Bill Hammons (U) with 0%
66. Web site: Daily Kos Elections' statewide election results by congressional and legislative districts .