Cliodynamics Explained

Cliodynamics is a transdisciplinary area of research that integrates cultural evolution, economic history/cliometrics, macrosociology, the mathematical modeling of historical processes during the longue durée, and the construction and analysis of historical databases.

Cliodynamics treats history as science. Its practitioners develop theories that explain such dynamical processes as the rise and fall of empires, population booms and busts, and the spread and disappearance of religions. These theories are translated into mathematical models. Finally, model predictions are tested against data. Thus, building and analyzing massive databases of historical and archaeological information is one of the most important goals of cliodynamics.

Etymology

The word cliodynamics is composed of clio- and -dynamics. In Greek mythology, Clio is the muse of history. Dynamics, most broadly, is the study of how and why phenomena change with time.

The term was originally coined by Peter Turchin in 2003, and can be traced to the work of such figures as Ibn Khaldun, Alexandre Deulofeu, Jack Goldstone, Sergey Kapitsa, Randall Collins, John Komlos, and Andrey Korotayev.

Mathematical modeling of historical dynamics

Many historical processes are dynamic, in that they change with time: populations increase and decline, economies expand and contract, states grow and collapse, and so on. As such, practitioners of cliodynamics apply mathematical models to explain macrohistorical patterns—things like the rise of empires, social discontent, civil wars, and state collapse.

Cliodynamics is the application of a dynamical systems approach to the social sciences in general and to the study of historical dynamics in particular. More broadly, this approach is quite common and has proved its worth in innumerable applications (particularly in the natural sciences).

The dynamical systems approach is so called because the whole phenomenon is represented as a system consisting of several elements (or subsystems) that interact and change dynamically (i.e., over time). More simply, it consists of taking a holistic phenomenon and splitting it up into separate parts that are assumed to interact with each other. In the dynamical systems approach, one sets out explicitly with mathematical formulae how different subsystems interact with each other. This mathematical description is the model of the system, and one can use a variety of methods to study the dynamics predicted by the model, as well as attempt to test the model by comparing its predictions with observed empirical, dynamic evidence.

Although the focus is usually on the dynamics of large conglomerates of people, the approach of cliodynamics does not preclude the inclusion of human agency in its explanatory theories. Such questions can be explored with agent-based computer simulations.

Databases and data sources

Cliodynamics relies on large bodies of evidence to test competing theories on a wide range of historical processes. This typically involves building massive stores of evidence. The rise of digital history and various research technologies have allowed huge databases to be constructed in recent years.

Some prominent databases utilized by cliodynamics practitioners include:

Research

Areas of study

As of 2016, the main directions of academic study in cliodynamics are:

Organizations

There are several established venues of peer-reviewed cliodynamics research:

Criticism

Critics of cliodynamics often argue that the complex social formations of the past cannot and should not be reduced to quantifiable, analyzable 'data points', for doing so overlooks each historical society's particular circumstances and dynamics. Many historians and social scientists contend that there are no generalisable causal factors that can explain large numbers of cases, but that historical investigation should focus on the unique trajectories of each case, highlighting commonalities in outcomes where they exist. As Zhao notes, "most historians believe that the importance of any mechanism in history changes, and more importantly, that there is no time-invariant structure that can organise all historical mechanisms into a system."

Fiction

Starting in the 1940s, Isaac Asimov invented the fictional precursor to this discipline, in what he called psychohistory, as a major plot device in his Foundation series of science fiction novels[11] [12] Robert Heinlein wrote a 1952 short story, The Year of the Jackpot, with a similar plot device about tracking the cycles of history and using them to predict the future.

See also

References

Bibliography

Further reading

External links

Notes and References

  1. Web site: CHIA: The Collaborative Information for Historical Analysis . www.chia.pitt.edu.
  2. Web site: International Institute of Social History . socialhistory.org.
  3. Web site: eHRAF Archaeology . Human Relations Area Files. www.yale.edu.
  4. Web site: eHRAF World Cultures . Human Relations Area Files. www.yale.edu.
  5. Web site: Clio-Infra . www.clio-infra.eu.
  6. http://escholarship.org/uc/irows_cliodynamics Cliodynamics: The Journal of Quantitative History and Cultural Evolution
  7. Web site: The University of Hertfordshire's Cliodynamics Lab . 2015-11-27 . https://web.archive.org/web/20151208075734/http://www.herts.ac.uk/digital-history/cliodynamics-lab . 2015-12-08 . dead .
  8. http://www.santafe.edu/ Santa Fe Institute
  9. Web site: History as Science:Journal for theoretical & mathematical history features 5 papers by SFI authors . www.santafe.edu. 16 April 2011 .
  10. For example, An Inquiry into History, Big History, and Metahistory . www.santafe.edu.
  11. Finley . Klint . Mathematicians Predict the Future With Data From the Past . en-US . Wired . 2022-10-22 . 1059-1028.
  12. Cajani . Luigi . 2016 . Il ritorno di Hari Seldon. Dalla psicostoriografia alla cliodinamica . Historia Magistra . 19 . 96–104 . 10.3280/hm2015-019009 . 2036-4040.

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