China–United States trade war explained

Pic:File:Signing Ceremony Phase One Trade Deal Between the U.S. & China (49391434906).jpg
Piccap:Vice Premier LiuHe and President Donald Trump sign the Phase One Trade Deal in January 2020.
S:中美贸易战
T:中美貿易戰
P:Zhōngměi Màoyìzhàn
Also Known As:China–United States trade dispute
S2:中美贸易争端
T2:中美貿易爭端
P2:Zhōngměi Màoyìzhēngduān
Links:no
Order:st

An economic conflict between China and the United States has been ongoing since January 2018, when U.S. President Donald Trump began setting tariffs and other trade barriers on China with the goal of forcing it to make changes to what the U.S. says are longstanding unfair trade practices and intellectual property theft.[1] The Trump administration stated that these practices may contribute to the U.S.–China trade deficit, and that the Chinese government requires transfer of American technology to China.[2] In response to US trade measures, the Chinese government accused the Trump administration of engaging in nationalist protectionism and took retaliatory action.[3] [4] After the trade war escalated through 2019, in January 2020 the two sides reached a tense phase one agreement.[5] [6] By the end of the Trump presidency, the trade war was widely characterized as a failure for the United States.[7] His successor, Joe Biden, however, has kept the tariffs in place.[8] In early 2024, the Trump presidential campaign was mulling a 60 percent tariff on Chinese goods.[9]

Background

See also: Economy of China, Economy of the United States, Intellectual property in China, United States–China Relations Act of 2000 and China and the World Trade Organization.

Trade relationship

See main article: China–United States relations. Since the 1980s, Trump had advocated tariffs to eliminate the U.S. trade deficit and promote domestic manufacturing, saying the country was being "ripped off" by its trading partners; imposing tariffs became a major plank of his presidential campaign.[10] Nearly all economists who responded to surveys conducted by the Associated Press and Reuters said Trump's tariffs would do more harm than good to the American economy,[11] [12] and some economists advocated alternate means to address trade deficits with China.[13] [14] [15] [16] [17]

The volume of trade in goods between the US and China has grown rapidly since the beginning of China's economic reforms in the late 1970s. The growth of trade accelerated after China's entry into the World Trade Organization (WTO) in 2001,[18] with the US and China becoming one another's most important trading partners. The US has consistently imported more from China than it has exported to China, with the bilateral US trade deficit in goods with China rising to $375.6 billion in 2017.[18] This trade deficit is driven by a difference in saving rates between the US and China: Chinese households save more than 30 percent of disposable income on average, compared to 7 percent in the United States.[19]

The US government has at times criticized various aspects of the US-China trade relationship, including large bilateral trade deficits, and China's relatively inflexible exchange rates. The administrations of George W. Bush and Barack Obama imposed quotas and tariffs on Chinese textiles in order to shield US domestic producers, accusing China of exporting these products at dumping prices. During the Obama administration, the US additionally accused China of subsidizing aluminium and steel production, and initiated a range of anti-dumping investigations against China. During these two US administrations, US-Chinese trade continued to grow. During this time, China's economy grew to be the second largest in the world (using nominal exchange rates), second only to that of the US. Large-scale Chinese economic initiatives, such as the Belt and Road Initiative, the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank and "Made in China 2025" alarmed some US policymakers. More broadly, China's economic growth has been viewed by the US government as a challenge to American economic and geopolitical dominance.

During his 2016 presidential campaign, Donald Trump promised to reduce the US trade deficit with China, which he attributed to unfair trade practices, such as intellectual property theft and lack of access by US companies to the Chinese market.[18] American proponents of tariffs on China have argued that tariffs will bring manufacturing jobs to the US; that bilateral tariffs should be reciprocal; that the US should eliminate its trade deficit with China; and that China should change various policies governing intellectual property and investment.[20] Most economists are skeptical of the ability of tariffs to achieve the first three of these goals.[20] A study estimates that U.S. exports to China provide support to 1.2 million American jobs and that Chinese multinational companies directly employ 197,000 Americans, while U.S. companies invested $105 billion in China in 2019.[21] Economists have studied the impact of trade with China and increasing labor productivity on employment in the American manufacturing sector, with mixed results.[20] [22] [23] [24] Most economists believe that the American trade deficit is the result of macroeconomic factors, rather than trade policy.[20] While increased tariffs on Chinese goods are expected to decrease US imports from China, they are expected to lead to increased imports from other countries, leaving the United States' overall trade deficit largely unchanged – a phenomenon known as trade diversion.[20] [25] [26]

Trump administration's complaints

See also: Trump tariffs. Donald Trump's first noted advocacy for tariffs was prompted by Japanese economic success in the 1980s, arguing that the U.S. trade deficit was a burden and that tariffs would promote domestic manufacturing that would keep the United States from being "ripped off" by its trading partners.[27] [28] Imposing tariffs was subsequently a major plank of his successful 2016 presidential campaign.[29] [30] [31] In early 2011, he stated that because China has manipulated their currency, "it is almost impossible for our companies to compete with Chinese companies."[32]

In the 2016 US presidential election, Trump ran on a protectionist economic platform.[33] As president, in August 2017, he directed the Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR) to investigate Chinese economic practices.[33] The resulting report, issued in March 2018, attacked many aspects of Chinese economic policy, focusing particularly on alleged technology transfer,[33] which the report stated cost the US economy $225 billion and $600 billion annually.[33] [34] Following the issuing of the report, Trump ordered the imposition of tariffs on Chinese products, the filing of a WTO case against China and restrictions on Chinese investment in high-tech sectors of the US economy.[33]

In supporting tariffs as president, he said that China was costing the American economy hundreds of billions of dollars a year because of unfair trade practices. After imposing tariffs, he denied entering into a trade war, saying the "trade war was lost many years ago by the foolish, or incompetent, people who represented the U.S." He said that the U.S. has a trade deficit of $500 billion a year, with intellectual property (IP) theft costing an additional $300 billion. "We cannot let this continue," he said.[35] [36] Former White House Counsel, Jim Schultz, said that "through multiple presidential administrations – Clinton, Bush and Obama – the United States has naively looked the other way while China cheated its way to an unfair advantage in the international trade market."[37]

According to the administration, the Chinese government's reforms have been minimal and have not been fair and reciprocal: "After years of U.S.-China dialogues that produced minimal results and commitments that China did not honor, the United States is taking action to confront China over its state-led, market-distorting forced technology transfers, intellectual property practices, and cyber intrusions of U.S. commercial networks."[38] [39]

Technology is considered the most important part of the U.S. economy.[40] According to U.S. Trade Representative Robert E. Lighthizer, China maintains a policy of "forced technology transfer," along with practicing "state capitalism," including buying U.S. technology companies and using cybertheft to gain technology.[40] As a result, officials in the Trump administration were, by early 2018, taking steps to prevent Chinese state-controlled companies from buying American technology companies and were trying to stop American companies from handing over their key technologies to China as a cost of entering their market.[40] According to political analyst Josh Rogin: "There was a belief that China would develop a private economy that would prove compatible with the WTO system. Chinese leadership has made a political decision to do the opposite. So now we have to respond."[40]

Lighthizer said that the value of the tariffs imposed was based on U.S. estimates of the actual economic damage caused by alleged theft of intellectual property and foreign-ownership restrictions that require foreign companies to transfer technology.[41] [42]

Over half of the members of the American Chamber of Commerce in the People's Republic of China thought that leakage of intellectual property was an important concern when doing business there.[43]

In August 2017, Robert Lighthizer investigated China's alleged unfair trade practices.[44] [45] [46]

Initiating steel and aluminium tariff actions in March 2018, Trump said "trade wars are good, and easy to win,"[47] but as the conflict continued to escalate through August 2019, Trump stated, "I never said China was going to be easy."[48] [49]

Peter Navarro, White House Office of Trade and Manufacturing Policy Director, explained that the tariffs are "purely defensive measures" to reduce the trade deficit.[50] He says that the cumulative trillions of dollars that Americans transfer overseas as a result of yearly deficits are then used by those countries to buy America's assets, as opposed to investing that money in the U.S. "If we do as we're doing . . . those trillions of dollars are in the hands of foreigners that they can then use to buy up America."[51]

China's response and counterallegations

The Chinese government argues that the US government's real goal is to stifle China's growth, and that the trade war has had a negative global effect.[18] The Chinese government has blamed the American government for starting the conflict and said that US actions were making negotiations difficult.[52] [53] Zhang Xiangchen, China's ambassador to the World Trade Organization, said the U.S. Trade Representative was operating with a "presumption of guilt", making claims without evidence and based on speculation.[54]

The Chinese government has denied forced transfer of IP is a mandatory practice, and acknowledged the impact of domestic R&D performed in China.[55] Former U.S. treasury secretary Larry Summers assessed that Chinese leadership in some technological fields was the result of "huge government investment in basic science" and not "theft" of U.S. properties.[56] In March 2019, the National People's Congress endorsed a new foreign investment bill, to take effect in 2020, which explicitly prohibits the forced transfer of IP from foreign companies, and grants stronger protection to foreign intellectual property and trade secrets. China had also planned to lift restrictions on foreign investment in the automotive industry in 2022. AmCham China policy committee chair Lester Ross criticized the bill, saying the text of the bill was "rushed" and "broad", and also criticized a portion of the bill that granted the country power to retaliate against countries that impose restrictions on Chinese companies.[57] [58] [59]

On 20 January 2021, China imposed sanctions against outgoing US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, former secretary of health and human services Alex Azar, former under secretary of state Keith J. Krach, outgoing US ambassador to the United Nations Kelly Craft, and 24 other former Trump officials.[60] Biden's National Security Council called the sanctions "unproductive and cynical."[61]

Biden administration restrictions

The Biden administration had not withdrawn Trump-era tariffs on Chinese imports, as of September 2022. In fact, the Democratic administration has introduced a number of new export limits and US investment bans for Chinese companies to protect US economic and military interests. In October 2022, the US Department of Commerce expanded sanctions after implicating 50 Chinese companies, including telecoms equipment maker Huawei in June 2021. Export controls were also introduced for chip maker Nvidia, Yangtze Memory Technologies (YMTC) and ChangXin Memory Technologies. Sanctions were expanded to include Chinese companies such as drone maker DJI and genomics company BGI Genomics, among others. South Korean telecom companies trading with the PRC were partially excluded from the new restrictions.[62] [63]

On 29 March 2024, the Biden administration revised rules aimed at restricting China's access to U.S. artificial intelligence (AI) chips and chipmaking tools, including those from Nvidia, as part of efforts to address national security concerns over Beijing's tech advancements potentially aiding its military.[64]

Chronology

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

Effects

A November 2019 United Nations analysis reported that "the U.S. tariffs on China are economically hurting both countries".[232] In the United States, it has led to higher costs for manufacturers, higher prices for consumers and financial difficulties for farmers. In China, the trade war contributed to a slowdown in the rate of economic and industrial output growth, which had already been declining. Many American companies have shifted supply chains to elsewhere in Asia, bringing fears that the trade war would lead to a US-China economic 'decoupling'.[233] The trade war has also caused economic damage in other countries, though some benefited from increased manufacturing as production was shifted to them. It also led to stock market instability. Governments around the world have taken steps to address some of the damage caused by the economic conflict.[234] [235] [236] [237]

By late 2019, the United States had imposed approximately US$350 billion in tariffs on Chinese imports, while China had imposed approximately US$100 billion on US exports.[238]

China

In April 2018, China announced that it would eliminate laws that required global automakers and shipbuilders to work through state-owned partners.[239] President of China and CCP general secretary Xi Jinping reiterated those pledges,[240] affirming a desire to increase imports, lower foreign-ownership limits on manufacturing and expand protection to intellectual property, all central issues in Trump's complaints about their trade imbalance.[241] Trump thanked Xi for his "kind words on tariffs and automobile barriers" and "his enlightenment" on intellectual property and technology transfers. "We will make great progress together!" the president added.

As a response to the trade war, China increased the personal income tax threshold from to (US$705) in January 2019, and reduced the top tier of value added tax from 16% to 13% in April 2019. Income tax deductions were also allowed for family care, medical and educational expenses, as well as for mortgage interest. The tax cuts were worth around trillion (US$324 billion).[242]

In May 2019, China's industrial output growth fell to 5.0%, which was the lowest rate in 17 years.[243] Exports fell by 1.3% in June compared to the previous year; imports declined 8.5% in May and 7.3% in June.[244] According to an analysis by Peterson Institute for International Economics published in June 2019, China had lowered tariffs on imports from countries other than the U.S. from an average of 8.0% to 6.7%, while average tariffs on U.S. imports rose from 8.0% to 20.7%.[245]

In December 2019, the South China Morning Post reported that, due to the trade war and the Chinese government's crackdown on shadow banking, Chinese manufacturing investments were expanding at the lowest rate since records began.[246] Economic growth rate for 2019 was 6.1%, the slowest since 1990.[242]

The trade war resulted in a significant growth of economic ties between China and the European Union, primarily as a result of the redistribution of commodity flows.[247]

The trade war contributed to a rise in Chinese nationalism; the South China Morning Post reported that the conflict helped the Chinese Communist Party "shore up much-needed domestic support".[248] The external pressure of the trade war allowed Chinese leader Xi Jinping to point to the United States' actions as a reason for China's economic slowdown.[249]

United States

By early July 2018, there were negative and positive results already showing up in the American economy as a result of the tariffs, as a number of industries showed employment growth while others were planning on layoffs.[250] [251] American commentators noted that consumer products were the most likely to be affected by the tariffs. A timeline of when costs would rise was uncertain as companies had to figure out if they could sustain a tariff hike without passing on the costs to consumers.[252]

American farmers were particularly severely affected by China's retaliatory trade actions.[207] In response, the Trump administration's aid relief for the difficulties faced by the farmers came in the form of cash payments, securing additional trade deals and modifying environmental regulations to benefit corn farmers.[253] [254] [255] According to the American Farm Bureau, agricultural exports from the US to China decreased from $24 billion in 2014 to $9.1 billion in 2018, including decreases in sales of pork, soybeans, and wheat. Farm bankruptcies have increased, and agricultural equipment manufacturer Deere & Company cut its profit forecast twice between January and August 2019. An August 2019 USDA report showed that as American wheat exports to China dropped, Canadian wheat exports to China rose from 32% to more than 60%.[256] Farm equipment manufacturers were negatively affected by the reluctance of farmers to invest in new equipment, with sales dropping significantly during the first quarter of 2019.[257] [258] Yet despite the negative effects, polls in July 2019 showed that most farmers continued to support Trump, as 78% of them said they believed the trade war will ultimately benefit U.S. agriculture.[259] The Government Accountability Office announced in February 2020 that it would examine the program, amid reports that aid was being improperly distributed.[260]

According to a study by the National Retail Federation of the United States, a 25% tariff on Chinese furniture alone would cost US consumers an additional $4.6 billion in annual payments.[261] [262]

Analysis conducted by the Peterson Institute for International Economics found that China imposed uniform tariffs averaging 8% on all its importers in January 2018, before the trade war began. By June 2019, tariffs on American imports had increased to 20.7%, while tariffs on other nations declined to 6.7%.[263] The analysis also found that average American tariffs on Chinese goods increased from 3.1% in 2017 to 24.3% by August 2019.[264]

Analysis by Goldman Sachs in May 2019 found that the consumer price index for nine categories of tariffed goods had increased dramatically, compared to a declining CPI for all other core goods.[265]

In an August 2019 interview with CNN's Jake Tapper, Navarro claimed that tariffs were not hurting Americans, despite evidence to the contrary.[266]

Surveys of consumer sentiment and small business confidence showed sharp declines in August 2019 on uncertainty caused by the trade war.[267] [268] The closely followed Purchasing Managers' Index for manufacturing from the Institute for Supply Management showed contraction in August, for the first time since January 2016; the ISM quoted several executives expressing anxiety about the continuing trade war, citing shrinking export orders and the challenges of shifting their supply chains out of China. The IHS Markit manufacturing purchasing managers' index also showed contraction in August, for the first time since September 2009.[269] The day the ISM report was released, Trump tweeted, "China's Supply Chain will crumble and businesses, jobs and money will be gone!"[270] [271]

Analysis conducted by Moody's Analytics estimated that through August 2019 300,000 American jobs had either been lost or not created due to the trade war, especially affecting manufacturing, warehousing, distribution and retail.[272]

By September 2019, American manufacturers were reducing their capital investments and delaying hiring due to uncertainty caused by the trade war.[273]

American importers were allowed to apply for exclusions from the tariffs. The Wall Street Journal reported in February 2020 that the USTR was granting fewer tariff waivers to American firms, down from 35% of requests for the first two tranches of tariffs in 2018 to 3% for the third tranche in 2019.[274] The mechanism for applying for exclusions expired in 2020.

The Phase I agreement failed to address any structural aspects of the structural conflicts between the United States and China. The overall U.S. trade deficit worsened, with supply trade diverted from China to higher-cost foreign producers rather than being supplied domestically. Tariffs imposed by the U.S. increased costs of Chinese imports for U.S. consumers and business.

Overall economy

Analysis published by The Wall Street Journal in October 2020 found the trade war did not achieve the primary objective of reviving American manufacturing nor did it result in the reshoring of factory production. Though the trade war led to higher employment in certain industries, tariffs led to a net loss of U.S. manufacturing jobs. The trade war reduced the United States' trade deficit with China in 2019, but this trend reversed itself in 2020 with the trade deficit increasing back to its pre–trade war level, while the United States' overall trade deficit has increased.[275]

Despite the United States trade deficit with China declining sharply from the record high in 2018, during the Trump presidency the overall deficit increased to the highest level since 2008 as American businesses shifted their imports to other countries to avoid the Trump tariffs. The deficit in goods increased 21% from 2016 to a record high. American exports – notably farm goods – were also weakened by retaliatory actions from China, the European Union, and other countries.[276] Economist Stephen Roach writes that by replacing the Chinese portion of the United States' trade gap with deficits from other nations that produce goods at higher cost, the diversion of trade to non-Chinese sources has resulted in the functional equivalent of a tax hike on United States companies and consumers.[277]

Analysis published by Chad Bown of the Peterson Institute for International Economics found that if there was no trade war initiated by Trump and if the US share of the Chinese market had just stayed consistent, then US exports to China would have been $119 billion bigger than what was actually recorded during Trump's administration during 2018 to 2021. Additionally, the trade war had incurred further costs of $30 billion in taxpayers funds that Trump used to subsidise the country's farmers to compensate for their lost sales to China from 2018 to 2020. Bown concluded that Trump's trade policies were not worth it for US exporters and that they would have likely have been better off without Trump's trade war.[278]

Stock market

Investor uncertainty due to the trade war caused turbulence in the stock market.[279] [280] [281]

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 724 points, or 2.9%, after the tariffs were announced due to concerns over a trade war.[282] Corporations that traded with China, such as Caterpillar Inc. and Boeing, suffered large losses in their stock price.[283]

On December 4, 2018, the Dow Jones Industrial Average logged its worst day in nearly a month as it declined nearly 600 points, to which some argue is in part due to the trade war.[284]

On August 23, 2019, the Dow dropped 623 points on the day that Trump informally ordered American companies to immediately seek alternatives to doing business in China.[285] [286] By the end of 2019, stock markets reached record highs, having risen due to the agreement between the United States and China to sign the first phase of a trade deal.[287] [288]

Elections

Analysts speculated that the trade war could affect the 2020 United States presidential election, as tariffs have negatively affected farmers, an important constituency for Trump.[289] [290] Analysts also speculated on how the trade war affected Xi Jinping in relation to the domestic pressures that he faced.[290]

In 2021, following the transition to the Biden administration, the Financial Times reported that "rushing to remove the tariffs could prove risky" for the Democrats in the 2022 United States elections.

Other countries

Economic growth has slowed worldwide amid the trade war.[291] The International Monetary Fund's World Economic Outlook report released in April 2019 lowered the global economic growth forecast for 2019 from 3.6% expected in 2018 to 3.3%, and said that economic and trade frictions may further curb global economic growth and continue weaken the investment.[292] U.S. economic growth has also slowed.[291]

Globally, foreign direct investment has slowed.[293] The trade war has hurt the European economy, particularly Germany, even though trade relations between Germany and China and between Germany and the U.S. remain good.[294] Germany and the EU have had high levels of trade with China, and the German government and public want to maintain these trade ties.[295] The Canadian economy has seen negative effects as well.[296] Like the U.S., Britain, Germany, Japan, and South Korea were all showing "a weak manufacturing performance" as of 2019. Several Asian governments have instituted stimulus measures to address damage from the trade war, though economists said this may not be effective.[297]

Some countries have benefited economically from the trade war, at least in some sectors, due to increasing exports to the United States and China to fill the gaps left by decreasing trade between these two economies. Beneficiaries include Vietnam, Chile, India, Malaysia, and Argentina. Vietnam is the biggest beneficiary, with technology companies moving manufacturing there.[298] South Korea has also benefited from increased electronics exports, Malaysia from semiconductor exports, Mexico from motor vehicles, and Brazil from soybeans.[299] Trade diversion effects have also had an impact on countries in East and Southeast Asia with Taiwan getting the largest boost.[300] US-ASEAN Business Council CEO Alex Feldman said these countries may not benefit for long: "It's in everyone's interest to see this spat get resolved and go back to normal trade relations between the US and China."[301] Several Taiwanese companies have been expanding production domestically, including Quanta Computer, Sercomm and Wistron, creating over 21,000 jobs.[302] This investment led to a significant strengthening of the New Taiwan Dollar which had not been expected pre-Trade War.[303] Nintendo has reportedly moved some Nintendo Switch production from China to Southeast Asia.[304]

The trade war has indirectly caused some companies to go bankrupt. One of them, Taiwanese LCD panel manufacturer Chunghwa Picture Tubes (CPT), went bankrupt as a result of an excess supply of panels and a subsequent collapse in prices, which was aided by vulnerability to the trade war, a slowing Taiwanese and global economy and a slowdown in the electronics sector.[302] [305]

Through practices of trade re-routing and re-labeling, the trade war has redirected Chinese trade to the United States via ASEAN.[306]

Reactions

In China

The Chinese public was generally surprised by the beginning of the trade war, according to academic Lin Mao.[307]

Mainland Chinese politicians and economists have been divided over the trade war.[308] [309] [310] [311] An August 2019 article in NPR said that while some in the PRC leadership argued for a quick resolution to the trade war in order to save China's economy, others said that the country should push back against the United States and avoid an agreement at all costs. The Chinese government characterizes the U.S. side as infringing on Chinese national sovereignty through demanding structural changes to China's economic system.[312]

In July 2018, academic Xu Zhangrun said that the trade war revealed underlying weaknesses in the Chinese political system and criticized Chinese leader Xi Jinping for his "overweening pride" and "vanity politics."[310] [311]

In August 2018, Hong Kong-based academic Willy Lam said that the trade war had galvanized all the previous misgivings which different countries in the West had toward China and undermined Chinese leader Xi Jinping's authority.[310] [311] Zhang Baohui, a political science professor at Lingnan University in Hong Kong, similarly said that the trade war had been effective in challenging the myth of Chinese invincibility, saying that the tariffs "really hurt China at a very bad time, when the economy is experiencing serious trouble."[310]

Economist Sheng Hong, director of the defunct think tank Unirule Institute of Economics, said that it would be good if China yielded to America's request for fair trade, arguing that the "China model" of state capitalism was incompatible with its policies of market reforms and damaging China's economy.[309] Amidst the closure Unirule after Hong was accused of threatening of state security, Hong likened Beijing's inability to brook internal criticism to "riding in a car with a filthy windshield."[309]

A December 2018 journal article published by two Chinese academics said that in the worst-case scenario of the trade war, China would suffer a 1.1% decrease in employment and a 1% GDP loss, which they said were not negligible, but manageable for China.[313] Another paper published in February 2018 by Chinese academics similarly concluded that whereas the United States would experience large social welfare losses as a result of the trade war, China may lose or gain slightly depending on the effect of trade war on the U.S.–China trade balance.[314]

In September 2019, Lu Xiang, an analyst at the state-backed Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, expressed pessimism about the outcome of upcoming talks, called Trump "unpredictable", and said, "We can only try to find sensible clues in his nonsense."

Domestic reporting on the trade war is censored in China. While news outlets are permitted to report on the conflict, their coverage is subject to restrictions; the South China Morning Post said that employees for Chinese media were told not to "over-report" the trade war[315] while an article in The New York Times said that state news outlets had sought to promote the official line, with the authorities restricting the use of the phrase "trade war."[311] Social media posts about the conflict are subject to censorship as well.[316] [317]

The trade war is a common subject on Chinese social media, with one popular Internet meme referencing Thanos, a villain from Marvel Comics and the Marvel Cinematic Universe who wipes out half of all life in the universe using the Infinity Gauntlet, joking that Trump will similarly wipe out half of China's investors.[318] [319]

Hong Kong economics professor Lawrence J. Lau argues that a major cause of the trade war is the growing battle between China and the U.S. for global economic and technological dominance. He argues, "It is also a reflection of the rise of populism, isolationism, nationalism and protectionism almost everywhere in the world, including in the US."[320]

In mid-2021, Taoran Notes, a social media account associated with the state-run Economic Daily, advised Chinese decision-makers to remain calm and recommended that both sides develop a deeper understanding of each other's perspectives. Taoran Notes said that the two countries had chosen "the path of cooperation that seeks common ground while reserving differences".[321]

People's Daily, the official newspaper of the Central Committee of the Chinese Communist Party, has stated that China will be able to withstand the trade war, and that Trump's policies are affecting American consumers.[322]

After the signing of the Phase One agreement, the Global Times published a series of articles reflecting on the trade war. According to the Global Times, the trade war had made Chinese people more mature and confident and the country proved it had political and economic institutions strong enough to defend its interests. In the view of the Global Times, China had not made too many concessions as part of the Phase One agreement. While China agreed to buy more from the United States, these were not forced purchases and China could make purchases based on its own needs. The structural changes China agreed to regarding intellectual property protections and opening more economic sectors to foreign investment would, according to the Global Times, ultimately serve China's needs to further deepen its reforms.

In the United States

Congress

Some Democrats opposed the trade war for putting a burden on American consumers and causing inflation, while other Democrats thought action against China was necessary, although not all such Democrats thought the trade war initiated by Trump was the right means of action.

Senate Democratic leader Chuck Schumer praised President Trump's higher tariffs against China's alleged taking advantage of the U.S. and said "Democrats, Republicans, Americans of every political ideology, every region in the country should support these actions." Other Democratic senators who supported Trump's actions include Bob Menendez, Sherrod Brown and Ron Wyden[323] [324] [325] [326] [327] Bipartisan support from the House of Representatives for Trump's actions came from Nancy Pelosi.[328] [329] [330] Brad Sherman,[331] Kevin Brady, and Ted Yoho. Democratic representative Tim Ryan, said, "What China has been doing is bullshit. They're cheating, they're subsidizing their product."[332] Senator Marco Rubio has also supported the tariffs, which he referred to as a "theft tax".[333]

Other Republican senators have given more divided statements. Mitch McConnell said that "nobody wins a trade war" but that there was hope the tactics would "get us into a better position, vis-à-vis China." John Cornyn said, "If this is what it takes to get a good deal, I think people will hang in there, but at some point we've got to get it resolved. If this goes on for a long time, everybody realizes it's playing with a live hand grenade."[334] Joni Ernst said in May 2019 that the "tariffs are hurtful" to farmers, but that they "do want us to find a path forward with China" and said, "We hope that we can get a deal soon".[335]

Other senators from both parties have criticized Trump for the trade war, including Chuck Grassley,[336] Tim Kaine,[337] Mark Warner, Elizabeth Warren,[338] and Ron Wyden.[339]

Agricultural

The Associated Press reported in 2018 that "Dave Warner, a spokesman for the National Pork Producers Council, said pork producers have already seen the value of their pigs fall after a previous Chinese tariff. Warner said pig producers will likely feel the effect of the new tariff, though it's not yet clear exactly how."[340]

Iowa soybean farmer and president of the American Soybean Association John Heisdorffer called the use of tariffs a "scorched-earth approach", warning that U.S. industries could permanently lose global market share as a result.[340] [341]

The mayors of Davenport and St. Gabriel, which represented towns with a heavy reliance on the farming sector, expressed their concerns of impacts that the trade war would have on their cities.

In August 2019, Roger Johnson of the National Farmers Unionrepresenting about 200,000 family farmers, ranchers and fishersstated that the trade war was creating problems for American farmers, specifically highlighting the fall in soybean exports from the U.S. to China.[342] In the same month, the American Farm Bureau Federationrepresenting large agribusinesssaid that the announcement of new tariffs "signals more trouble for American agriculture."[343]

Business

More than 3,500 American businesses sued the Trump administration over the tariffs.[344]

In September 2018, a business coalition announced a lobbying campaign called "Tariffs Hurt the Heartland" to protest the proposed tariffs;[345] the tariffs on Chinese steel, aluminium, and certain chemicals contributed to rising fertilizer and agricultural equipment costs in the United States.[346]

In February 2019, a survey released by the American Chamber of Commerce in China showed that a majority of member U.S. companies supported increasing or maintaining tariffs on Chinese goods, and nearly twice as many respondents compared to the year before wanted the U.S. government to push Beijing harder to create a level playing field.[347] [348] A further 19 percent of its companies said they were adjusting supply chains or seeking to source components and assembly outside of China as a result of tariffs and 28% were delaying or cancelling investment decisions in China.[347]

Over 600 companies and trade associations, including manufacturers, retailers, and tech companies, wrote to Trump in mid-2019 to ask him to remove tariffs and end the trade war, saying that increased tariffs would have "a significant, negative, and long-term impact on American businesses, farmers, families, and the US economy".[349]

On May 20, 2019, the Footwear Distributors and Retailers of America, an industry trade association for footwear, issued an open letter to President Trump, part of which read: "On behalf of our hundreds of millions of footwear consumers and hundreds of thousands of employees, we ask that you immediately stop this action", referring to the trade war.[350] [351]

Americans for Free Trade, a coalition of over 160 business organizations, wrote a letter to Trump in August 2019 requesting that he postpone all tariff rate increases on Chinese goods, citing concerns about cost increases for U.S. manufacturers and farmers. The coalition includes the National Retail Federation, the Consumer Technology Association, Association of Equipment Manufacturers, the Toy Association and American Petroleum Institute, among others.[352]

In September 2019, Matthew Shay, president and CEO of the National Retail Federation, said that the trade war had "gone on far too long" and had harmful effects on American businesses and consumers. He urged the Trump administration to end the trade war and find an agreement to remove all the tariffs.[353]

Hun Quach, vice president of international trade for the Retail Industry Leaders Association has claimed that the tariffs will impact American family budgets by raising the prices of everyday items.[340] [354] [355]

A spokesperson for the US–China Business Council said that the tariffs were "deeply unpopular with American consumers and businesses who bear the cost".[344]

Manufacturing

The CEOs of American steelmakers Nucor Corp, United States Steel Corp, ArcelorMittal SA and Commercial Metals Co have all supported Trump's steel tariffs against China[356] [357] as has the United Steelworkers Union.[358] [359] [360] [361] [332] Scott Paul, president of the associated Alliance for American Manufacturing, has also supported tariffs,[340] [362] and opposed proposals to reverse them in light of the coronavirus pandemic.[363] In 2019, he criticized the stagnation of trade talks saying "Trump would have ripped any Democrat for that outcome".[364]

James Hoffa Jr., president of the International Brotherhood of Teamsters, has been a proponent of U.S. tariffs against China[365] as has Richard Trumka, president of AFL–CIO.[366] [367]

A 2019 statement by the National Association of Manufacturers stated their opposition to the trade war, calling for a new structure for the U.S.–China commercial relationship that would eliminate China's unfair trade practices and level the playing field for manufacturers in the United States.[368] A 2018 Politico article documented the close partnership between the president of NAM Jay Timmons and President Trump and said that Timmons was fighting against Trump's trade war from within.[369]

The vice president of the National Marine Manufacturers Association criticized the tariffs, saying they were "hurting American manufacturers."

Economists and analysts

According to articles in PolitiFact, most mainstream economists said that "consumers are the primary victims of tariffs"[362] and most economists said that they carry "more risks than benefits".[370] Nearly all economists who responded to surveys conducted by the Associated Press and Reuters said that Trump's tariffs would do more harm than good to the economy of the United States,[11] [12] and some economists advocated for alternate means for the United States to address its trade deficit with China.[13] [14] [15] [16] [17]

NYU Economics Professor Lawrence J. White has said that import tariffs are equivalent to a tax, and contribute to a higher cost of living.[362] [370]

Economic analyst Zachary Karabell has argued that the administration's tariff-based approach would not work as it would not "reverse what has already been transferred and will not do much to address the challenge of China today, which is no longer a manufacturing neophyte" and also argued that the assertion that more rigorous intellectual property protections would "level the playing field" was problematic.[371] He recommended instead that the U.S. focus on its relative advantages of economic openness and a culture of independence.[371]

James Andrew Lewis of the Center for Strategic and International Studies said that what the United States needed from China was a commitment to observe the rules and norms of international trade and to extend reciprocal treatment to U.S. companies in China.[372]

In an April 2018 article in Forbes, Harry G. Broadman, a former U.S. trade negotiator, said that while he agreed with the Trump administration's basic position that the Chinese did not abide by fair, transparent and market-based rules for global trade, he disagreed with its means of unilaterally employing tariffs and said that the administration should instead pursue a coalition-based approach.[373]

In a November 2018 testimony before the Senate Finance Committee, Jennifer Hillman, a professor of practice at Georgetown University Law School, said that United States "ought to be bringing a big and bold case, based on a coalition of countries working together to take on China."

Chad Bown, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics said that while it made sense for other countries to get more involved in confronting China, the problem was that they did not know how serious Trump was on reforming the larger, systemic issues.

Michael Wessel described plans to allow foreign companies a greater role in the Chinese technology program "an influence operation at its best" and also questioned whether changes in relevant Chinese laws would mean much so long as the courts remained under the control of the Chinese Communist Party.

A May 2019 article written by Howard Gleckman of the Tax Policy Center argued that the impact of the trade war would eliminate "most or all" of the benefits from the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act for low- and middle-income households.[374] [375]

Economists at financial firm Morgan Stanley expressed uncertainty about how the trade war would end, but warned in June 2019 that it could lead to a recession.[376]

Economist Panos Mourdoukoutas states that China's elites were fighting the trade war under the wrong assumption that China had reached "power parity" with the U.S. and that although an economic divorce between the two countries would have some consequences for the US, it would on the other hand be devastating for China.[377]

In November 2019, Jim Cramer said that unless China purchased a considerable amount of American goods as a way to prove the validity of the arguments proffered by the free-trade contingent in the Trump administration, the U.S.–China trade war would continue on for a significant period of time.[378]

After the first phase of a trade deal was agreed upon in December 2019, Mary E. Lovely of the Peterson Institute for International Economics and professor at Syracuse University said the ceasefire was "good news" for the American economy while expressing optimism that the talks would help address China's "unfair" intellectual property practices.[379] [380]

Economist Paul Krugman said in September 2020 that if Democratic candidate Joe Biden won the U.S. presidential election, he should maintain a tough stance against China, but focus more on industrial policy than trade tariffs.[381]

Economist C. Fred Bergsten concluded in 2021 that "China's economy is too large and too powerful to be suppressed. It fended off the Trump attacks with little damage, and indeed with renewed confidence in its prospects."[382]

In study on the trade-effects of regulation in 2023, economists Knut Blind and Moritz Böhmecke-Schwafert concluded that tariff hikes by the US are expected to have an opposite effect in the mid- and long-term "and exports from China to the US might actually increase" based on trade data of OECD and BRICS countries in the last two decades.[383]

Others

Minxin Pei, a scholar of Chinese politics at California's Claremont McKenna College, argued that Mr. Xi's ambition for China's revival as a worldpower had been revealed as hollow through the continuing trade dispute.[310]

The former Vice President Joe Biden said: "While Trump is pursuing a damaging and erratic trade war, without any real strategy, China is positioning itself to lead the world in renewable energy."[384]

An August 2019 Harvard CAPS/Harris Poll found that 67% of registered voters wanted the U.S. to confront Beijing over its trade policies despite the fact that 74% said American consumers were shouldering most of the burden of tariffs. Mark Penn, the co-director of the Harvard CAPS/Harris Poll, said the poll showed strong support amongst the American public for Trump's trade policies against China, saying, "They realize that the tariffs may have negative impacts on jobs and prices, but they believe the fight here is the right one."[385]

Tariffs on medical supplies have become politically complicated due to the COVID-19 pandemic. The Wall Street Journal, citing Trade Data Monitor to show that China is the leading source of many key medical supplies, raised concerns that US tariffs on imports from China threaten imports of medical supplies into the United States.[386]

International

A September 2018 article by Brahma Chellaney said that America's trade war with China should not obscure a broader pushback against China's mercantilist trade, investment, and lending practices.[387]

At the 2018 G20 summit, the trade war was on the agenda for discussion.[388]

In December 2018 Jorge Guajardo, former Mexican ambassador to China, said in an article in The Washington Post that "One thing the Chinese have had to acknowledge is that it wasn't a Trump issue; it was a world issue. Everybody's tired of the way China games the trading system and makes promises that never amount to anything."[389]

A March 2019 Reuters article said that the European Union shared many of the Trump administration's same complaints with regards to China's technology transfer policies and market access constraints and also reported that European diplomats and officials acknowledged support for Trump's goals, even if they disagreed with his tactics.[348]

Singaporean Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong said that the trade war was negatively affecting Singapore and described it as "very worrying". He urged both the U.S. and Chinese governments to change their approaches.[390] [391]

At the 45th G7 summit, UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson said, "We don't like tariffs on the whole."[392] An article in ABC said that U.S. allies warned Trump during the summit about his trade war with China, but that Trump said he wasn't facing any pressure from his allies over the trade war.[392] European Council President Donald Tusk said the trade war risked causing a global recession.[393]

The Chilean vice minister for trade, Rodrigo Yanez, told CNBC that "It's very important for Chile that a trade deal between the U.S. and China is signed soon".[394]

In the wake of the 2020 Galwan Valley skirmish, Indian commentators made references to the US–China trade war as part of their overall analysis of the effect that the skirmish would have on the future relations between India and China.[395] [396] [397] [398] [399] [400] [401]

See also

Further reading

External links

Notes and References

  1. News: Swanson . Ana . July 5, 2018 . Trump's Trade War With China Is Officially Underway . . May 26, 2019 .
  2. https://ustr.gov/sites/default/files/Section%20301%20FINAL.PDF "Findings of the Investigation into China's Acts, Policies, and Practices Related to Technology Transfer, Intellectual Property, and Innovation Under Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974"
  3. News: China doesn't want to supplant the US, but it will keep growing, Beijing says . Kinling . Lo . September 27, 2019 . August 11, 2020 . South China Morning Post.
  4. News: With Higher Tariffs, China Retaliates Against the U.S.. Keith. Bradsher. . May 13, 2019.
  5. News: China missed US trade-deal targets last year, new data shows . 26 January 2021 . South China Morning Post . 22 January 2021 . en.
  6. News: Zumbrun . Josh . Beijing Fell Short on Trade Deal Promises, Creating Dilemma for Biden . . December 31, 2021.
  7. Multiple sources:
  8. News: 22 October 2022 . 4 years of trade war tariffs have hammered US imports of Chinese electronics . 24 October 2022 . . en.
  9. Web site: Picciotto . Rebecca . 2024-02-04 . Trump floats 'more than' 60% tariffs on Chinese imports . 2024-03-04 . . en.
  10. News: Tankersley . Jim . Landler . Mark . May 15, 2019 . Trump's Love for Tariffs Began in Japan's '80s Boom (Published 2019) . .
  11. Web site: Sarkar . Shrutee . March 14, 2018 . Economists united: Trump tariffs won't help the economy . August 26, 2019 . Reuters.
  12. Web site: Boak . Josh . December 5, 2018 . AP Fact Check: Economists say Trump off on tariffs' impact . AP News.
  13. Web site: The U.S. Trade Deficit: How Much Does It Matter? . Council on Foreign Relations.
  14. Web site: Freund . Caroline . November 6, 2017 . Three Ways to Reduce a Trade Deficit . November 6, 2017 . PIIE . Peterson Institute for International Economics.
  15. Web site: Makin . Tony . Policy Options For Addressing the China-US Trade Imbalance . August 26, 2019 . AIIA . Australian Institute of International Affairs.
  16. Web site: Hass . Ryan . June 14, 2018 . Trump's focus on China trade: Right target, wrong approach . Brookings Institution .
  17. CSIS Brief: Beyond the Brink: Escalation and Conflict in U.S.-China Economic Relations . September 25, 2019 . CSIS . September 25, 2019 . Goodman . Matthew P. . Gerstel . Dylan . Risberg . Pearl .
  18. News: What is the US-China trade war? . South China Morning Post . 13 April 2020 . 16 August 2020.
  19. Book: Jin . Keyu . Keyu Jin . The New China Playbook . 2023 . Viking . New York . 9781984878281 . 59, 74 . In China the average net household saving rate as a share of disposable income is more than 30 percent over the last two decades. ... The high saving propensity of a Chinese household stands in sharp contrast to that of an American household, which saves about 7 percent (before the 2008 crisis that number was closer to 2 percent). This leads to popular stereotypes of frugal Chinese and profligate Americans, but these differences in saving rates have consequences beyond personal behavior. They contribute directly to the large trade imbalance between the two countries, and therefore lie at the heart of the fierce political and economic debate on trade policy that led to a full-blown trade war between the US and China..
  20. Web site: An Economic Analysis of the US-China Trade Conflict . Eddy . Bekkers . Sofia . Schroeter . World Trade Organization . ERSD-2020-04 . 19 March 2020 . 23 October 2020 . "Third, most economists contend that trade policy is not an appropriate tool to reduce trade imbalances, since these are driven by macroeconomic factors. To provide some background behind this claim, recall the macroeconomic identity that the trade balance has to be equal to the capital balance which in turn is equal to savings minus investment. So, in a country like Germany running a trade surplus, capital outflows exceed capital inflows and savings exceed investment, whereas the United States is running a trade deficit and capital inflows exceed capital outflows, and investment has to exceed savings. Most economists argue that savings and investment are not significantly affected by policies impacting imports and exports such as tariff rates. In the standard intertemporal model of international finance (Obstfeld and Rogoff, 1995) the capital balance is determined by the difference between the world and autarky interest rates which in turn are driven by differences in productivity growth. Countries with above average income growth in earlier periods should run current account deficits, as in these countries consumption is expected to be larger than production in earlier periods.".
  21. News: Jan 14, 2021. U.S.-China trade war has cost up to 245,000 U.S. jobs: business group study. Reuters.
  22. The China Syndrome: Local Labor Market Effects of Import Competition in the United States . David H. . Autor . David . Dorn . Gordon H. . Hanson . 2013 . American Economic Review . 103 . 6 . 2121–2168 . 10.1257/aer.103.6.2121. 2498232 . free . 1721.1/95952 . free .
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  39. https://trumpwhitehouse.archives.gov/briefings-statements/president-donald-j-trump-confronting-chinas-unfair-trade-policies/ "President Donald J. Trump is Confronting China's Unfair Trade Policies"
  40. https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/the-united-states-is-finally-confronting-chinas-economic-aggression/2018/03/25/3e0a2188-2f72-11e8-b0b0-f706877db618_story.html "The United States is finally confronting China's economic aggression"
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  53. Web site: 'The US has backtracked': China releases official document blaming America for the trade war . Cheng . Evelyn . . June 2, 2019.
  54. News: US and China clash over 'technology transfer' at the WTO . 25 October 2020 . CNBC. 29 May 2018 . en.
  55. News: U.S. and China clash over 'technology transfer' at WTO. May 29, 2018. Reuters. June 1, 2019. en.
  56. Web site: Larry Summers praises China's state investment in tech, saying it doesn't need to steal from US. Belvedere. Matthew J. . June 27, 2018 . CNBC. en . June 1, 2019 .
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  58. Web site: China is reportedly considering a law to crack down on forced tech transfers . V. . Harini . December 24, 2018. CNBC. en. June 1, 2019.
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  61. News: Biden administration calls China sanctions on Trump officials 'unproductive and cynical'. 21 January 2021 . Reuters. January 21, 2021 . Martina . Michael .
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  63. https://www.reuters.com/technology/exclusive-samsung-sk-hynix-be-spared-brunt-china-memory-chip-crackdown-sources-2022-10-06/ "Exclusive: Samsung, SK Hynix to be spared brunt of China chip crackdown by U.S."
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  137. Web site: Billions of Dollars are pouring into the coffers of the U.S.A. because of the Tariffs being charged to China, and there is a long way to go. If companies don't want to pay Tariffs, build in the U.S.A. Otherwise, lets just make our Country richer than ever before!. Donald J.. Trump. November 29, 2018.
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  189. "The text is expected to be released after the signing, although U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer has said some of the details on purchases will be classified" News: Trump Says He Will Sign Phase-One Trade Deal With China on Jan. 15. Bob Davis and Andrew Restuccia in Washington and Lingling Wei in. Beijing. The Wall Street Journal. December 31, 2019.
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  251. Because these tariffs could harm U.S. workers and manufacturers that rely on these imports, the U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) developed a process to exclude some products from these tariffs. From 2018-2020, USTR received requests for over 53,000 exclusions from U.S. firms affected by the tariffs. See "U.S.-China Trade: USTR Should Fully Document Internal Procedures for Making Tariff Exclusion and Extension Decisions". U.S. Government Accountability Office. Retrieved 13 January 2022.
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  316. News: Oh . Sunny . How China's censorship on trade war throws off the algos . August 13, 2020 . MarketWatch.
  317. News: Don't mention the (trade) war: China censors crack down on WeChat . August 13, 2020 . South China Morning Post . February 13, 2019 . en.
  318. News: Trump's Trade War Threat Poses Problems for China and Investors. Bradsher. Keith. May 6, 2019. The New York Times. Swanson. Ana.
  319. Web site: Richardson . Davis . Chinese Social Media Depicts Trump as 'Thanos' for Blowing Up Trade Talks . Observer . May 6, 2019.
  320. Lawrence J. Lau, "The China–US Trade War and Future Economic Relations." China and the World (Lau Chor Tak Institute of Global Economics and Finance, 2019): 1-32. quote p. 3 online.
  321. News: China-US relationship needs 'cool heads and new strategy' from Beijing . 19 June 2021 . South China Morning Post . 2021-06-04 . en.
  322. News: China Would Fight Trade War 'to the End,' State Media Says . . June 22, 2019.
  323. Web site: Trump's China tariffs get bipartisan support, reflecting widespread U.S. disillusionment with Beijing. Los Angeles Times. March 22, 2018.
  324. Web site: Schumer, Wyden, Brown Lead 33 Senators In Calling On Trump Administration To Put American Jobs, National Security Before China ~ Senators: Trading American Security for Jobs in China is a Bad Deal. United States Senate. May 15, 2018.
  325. Web site: Menendez, Democratic Senators Call On Trump Administration To Put American Jobs, National Security Before China. United States Senate. May 15, 2018.
  326. Web site: Senate Democratic leader Chuck Schumer warns Trump: 'Don't let President Xi play you' on trade talks. CNBC. May 18, 2018.
  327. Web site: Ahead Of G-20 Summit, Schumer, Wyden, And Brown Urge President Trump To Not Back Down On Further Action Against China For Sake Of Weak And Meaningless Agreement. United States Senate. November 28, 2018.
  328. Web site: Democrat-led House seen backing Trump's China trade war, scrutinizing talks with allies. Reuters. November 8, 2018.
  329. Web site: Pelosi Statement on Trump Administration's New Tariffs on China. United States House of Representatives. March 22, 2018.
  330. Web site: Pelosi Statement on Trump Trade Brinkmanship. United States House of Representatives. May 29, 2018. December 14, 2018. December 23, 2018. https://web.archive.org/web/20181223103732/https://www.democraticleader.gov/newsroom/52918-2/.
  331. Web site: House Democrat: 'China declared trade war,' not Trump. Washington Examiner. July 11, 2018.
  332. News: Trump's tariffs make him labor unions' man of steel . Vice. March 2, 2018.
  333. https://www.investors.com/politics/columnists/china-trade-war-tariffs-trump-intellectual-property-theft/ "In China, 'Free' Trade Means Steal What You Want"
  334. Web site: GOP scrambles to ease blow from Trump's trade war . Mascaro . Lisa . . May 15, 2019.
  335. Web site: Iowa GOP senator says US–China trade war 'hurtful' to farmers . Cole . Devan . . May 26, 2019.
  336. News: Trump Says He Will Raise Existing Tariffs on Chinese Goods to 30% . . August 23, 2019. Rappeport . Alan . Bradsher . Keith.
  337. Web site: Virginia senators condemn escalated trade war with China . Patterson . Erin . August 23, 2019.
  338. News: Trade Turmoil Gives Democrats an Opening to Hit Trump on Economy . . August 24, 2019. Tankersley . Jim . Kaplan . Thomas.
  339. Web site: Trump's China tariff hike draws mixed reception from lawmakers . Higgins . Sean . August 1, 2019.
  340. News: Reaction to the Trade Battle Between China and the US. July 7, 2018. AP News. December 13, 2019.
  341. News: Anapol . Avery . US soybean farmers warn Trump trade war with China will cause 'serious damage' . August 31, 2020 . . July 8, 2018 . en.
  342. Web site: National Farmers Union Says Trump Is 'Burning Bridges' With His Trade Wars. Mary. Papenfuss. August 23, 2019. HuffPost.
  343. Web site: China and the US ratchet up trade war in a day of retaliation . . August 23, 2019.
  344. News: Persistence of Donald Trump's China tariffs frustrates US business . 12 June 2021 . . 3 June 2021.
  345. News: Wide range of businesses step up campaign against Trump's tariffs . Dhue . Stephanie . September 12, 2018 . CNBC. September 14, 2018.
  346. News: McCrimmon. Ryan. Farmers nearing crisis push back on Trump trade policies. Politico. February 6, 2019. February 6, 2019.
  347. News: U.S. business lobby says most firms favor tariffs while China trade talks underway . Reuters. February 26, 2019.
  348. News: Trump push for China trade reform draws wide support at home, abroad . Reuters. March 25, 2019.
  349. Web site: First on CNN Business: 600 companies including Walmart, Costco and Target warn Trump on tariffs . June 14, 2019.
  350. News: Nike, Adidas Call Tariffs 'Catastrophic' in Letter to Trump . June 7, 2019 . bloomberg.com .
  351. Web site: Footwear Tariff Letter. FDRA. October 12, 2019.
  352. Web site: Business groups urge Trump to delay tariff increases. Gangitano. Alex. August 28, 2019. The Hill. en. December 6, 2019.
  353. Web site: China-US trade talks to resume in early October amid dim growth outlook. September 5, 2019. South China Morning Post.
  354. News: U.S. retailers blast new China tariffs, say move will raise prices further, hurt jobs . August 31, 2020 . Reuters. August 1, 2019 . en.
  355. News: Bhattarai . Abha . Five ways the trade war will hurt American shoppers . August 31, 2020 . The Washington Post.
  356. https://www.cnbc.com/2018/03/05/nucor-ceo-trump-tariffs-are-treating-countries-how-they-treat-us.html "Nucor CEO on Trump tariffs: 'We're treating other countries how they treat us'"
  357. News: 'Don't blink' on Trump tariffs, steel CEOs tell U.S. lawmakers . Reuters. March 27, 2019.
  358. News: U.S. Weighs Tariff Relief but Some Fear China Will Take Advantage . . March 15, 2020 . But in a letter sent to Congress on Friday afternoon, Thomas M. Conway, the international president of the United Steelworkers Union, cautioned against removing tariffs on steel, saying that it would harm an industry that is already struggling as a result of auto plant closures and a general slowdown in manufacturing. ... Mr. Conway, whose group pressed for the tariffs initially, also argued that rolling back tariffs could advance China's interests. He cited research from Horizon Advisory, a firm that analyzes Chinese-language publications, speeches and other documents, which suggested that some Chinese strategists believe that emerging from the coronavirus first would give China an economic opportunity..
  359. News: U.S. Tariff Deal with Mexico, Canada Is Also About Cutting Off China's Steel . . May 17, 2019.
  360. News: United Steelworkers leader: Punish China, not Canada . Pittsburgh Post-Gazette . June 13, 2018.
  361. News: The Steelworkers Argument For Tariffs . NPR. July 7, 2018.
  362. News: PolitiFact's guide to understanding tariffs and international trade . August 31, 2020 . PolitiFact.
  363. News: White House not considering three-month tariff deferral: Navarro . . March 24, 2020.
  364. News: Stevenson . Alexandra . U.S.–China Trade Talks End With No Deal in Sight . . July 31, 2019.
  365. News: Why the Teamsters president supports Trump's new tariffs . . May 14, 2019.
  366. News: The Christian Science Monitor Breakfast with Richard Trumka . . . August 1, 2018 . WE ARE PRETTY SUPPORTIVE WHEN IT COMES TO CHINA BECAUSE I WOULD SAY THEY HAVE BEEN THE CHIEF COOK WHEN IT COMES TO TRADE VIOLATIONS. WE HAVE LOOKED AT THOSE AND SAID SOMETHING NEEDS TO BE DONE. CURRENTLY MANIPULATION STILL NEEDS TO BE ADDRESSED. THEN, THERE ARE A COUPLE OF 232'S YOU COULD PROBABLY DEAL WITH. RARE EARTH MAGNETS ARE USED IN THE GUIDANCE SYSTEM OF SHIPS, MISSILES AND PLANES ETC.. WE HAD ONE IN INDIANA AND ONE IN ILLINOIS. PRESIDENT BUSH GAVE THEM THE IDEA TO BUY PLANS. THEY HAVE A LITTLE OVER 90% OF THE WORLD SUPPLY OF RARE EARTH MAGNET BY THE CHINESE RIGHT NOW. DO YOU THINK THAT COULD POSSIBLY REPRESENT A THREAT TO OUR NATIONAL SECURITY? THAT MIGHT BE A PLACE FOR WHERE 232 ACTION IS JUSTIFIABLE AND ACTUALLY WARRANTED. WHAT WE SAY IS WE LOOK AT THE INDIVIDUAL CASE AND YOU DON'T DO IT WITH A SHOTGUN, YOU DO IT WITH THE RIFLE. IF CHINA IS BY LIVING, WE OUGHT TO PUSH BACK. YOU TALKED ABOUT RULES OF ORIGIN . LET'S TAKE NAFTA. THEY SAID WE HAVE TO HAVE A 62.5% PRODUCT MADE IN A COMBINATION OF THE THREE COUNTRIES, BUT IF CHINA MADE 30% OF EVERY COMPONENT THAT THE MEXICANS OR THE U.S. OR CANADA PUTS INTO A CAR, THAT 30% GETS WASHED AND IT IS COUNTED AS WANTED TO PERCENT FOR MEXICO, SO THE REAL ONES WERE WASHED AWAY. WE NEED TO LOOK AT THAT. IF AN INDUSTRY IMPORTANT TO OUR ECONOMY AND NATIONAL SECURITY, EVERY OTHER COUNTRY IN THE WORLD MAKES SURE THE INDUSTRY THRIVES. WE SHOULD DO THE SAME..
  367. News: Labor chief Trumka walks tightrope on Trump and trade . Christian Science Monitor . And what about the farmers negatively affected by China's retaliatory tariffs, in what many observers call a trade war? Trumka urges a big-picture perspective. "When you go through this, you're going to come up with what's good for the country," Trumka says. "And sometimes what's good for the country may be bad for Joe or Jane in the short term, but in the long term, if it's good for the country, it's going to be good for everybody." "And if we get trade agreements that are fairly enforced, that farmer is going to get a fair shake," he continues. "They're going to be able to compete, because the rules are the same for everybody. And when the rules are the same, I believe the farmers in this country are going to do well and they're going to be able to compete worldwide.".
  368. News: Kimball . Spencer . US business groups praise Trump's trade war truce, but want an 'enforceable agreement' with China . August 12, 2020 . . June 29, 2019 . en.
  369. News: Woellert . Lorraine . Levine . Marianne . Fighting against Trump's trade war from within . August 12, 2020 . Politico. en . September 11, 2018. But while organizations like the National Retail Federation have publicly scolded Trump for a "reckless escalation," Timmons has taken a more diplomatic tack. "It's not the way I would negotiate it, but the last time I looked I wasn't elected president," Timmons said. "If this is a better way to encourage investment here in the United States, and create jobs and wage growth, we'll have to see.".
  370. News: Donald Trump has floated big tariffs. What could the impact be? . August 31, 2020 . PolitiFact.
  371. https://www.wired.com/story/why-trumps-misguided-china-tariffs-wont-help-the-us/ "Why Trump's Misguided China Tariffs Won't Help the U.S."
  372. There Is More to the Trade War than Trade . CSIS . April 6, 2018 . April 6, 2018. Lewis . James Andrew .
  373. Web site: The Coalition-Based Trade Strategy Trump Should Pursue Toward China. Broadman. Harry. Forbes. April 9, 2018. December 2, 2018.
  374. News: TaxVox: For Many Households, Trump's Tariffs Could Wipe Out The Benefits of the TCJA . August 31, 2020 . Tax Policy Center .
  375. News: Trump Tariffs Could Wipe Out Tax Cuts for Many Households . August 31, 2020 . finance.yahoo.com.
  376. Web site: Morgan Stanley sees global recession 'in three quarters' if Trump escalates trade war . Higgins . Tucker . . June 2, 2019.
  377. https://www.forbes.com/sites/panosmourdoukoutas/2019/09/07/a-big-mistake-chinas-political-elite-makes-in-fighting-the-trade-war/#2a51079e52e6 "A Big Mistake China's Political Elite Makes In Fighting The Trade War"
  378. News: Stankiewicz . Kevin . Cramer: Ideological divides could make the US–China trade war 'go on for years' . CNBC. November 14, 2019.
  379. News: Lovely . Mary E. . Opinion: A trade war ceasefire is just what America's economy needs . August 31, 2020 . CNN.
  380. News: U.S.–China Trade Deal Implications . August 31, 2020 . . en.
  381. News: U.S. must stand up to China if Biden wins, focus less on trade, Krugman says . Reuters. September 28, 2020.
  382. Book: Bergsten, C. Fred . The United States vs. China: the quest for global economic leadership . 2022 . 978-1-5095-4735-7 . Cambridge . 309 . 1255691875.
  383. Böhmecke-Schwafert . Moritz . Blind . Knut . 2023-05-01 . The trade effects of product market regulation in global value chains: evidence from OECD and BRICS countries between 2000 and 2015 . Empirica . en . 50 . 2 . 441–479 . 10.1007/s10663-023-09574-z . 1573-6911. free .
  384. News: The Democratic candidates on foreign policy . Foreign Policy.
  385. Web site: Poll: Voters want US to confront China over trade. Max. Greenwood. September 3, 2019. The Hill.
  386. Web site: U.S. Tariffs Hamper Imports of Sanitizer, Disinfectants, Some Companies Say . Ferek . Katy Stech . Zumbrun . Josh . . April 12, 2020 . June 24, 2020 .
  387. News: The China Backlash . Project Syndicate . Project Syndicate . September 27, 2018.
  388. News: G20 leaders back WTO reform at summit. Australian Associated Press. December 2, 2018.
  389. News: Trump, a global loner, finds his China trade war complaints draw a crowd. https://web.archive.org/web/20181217112227/https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/trump-a-global-loner-finds-his-china-trade-war-complaints-draw-a-crowd/2018/12/14/12a66458-ff00-11e8-ad40-cdfd0e0dd65a_story.html . The Washington Post. December 14, 2018. December 17, 2018.
  390. News: US, China must reconsider positions in trade war that won't end with 'one loser and one winner': PM Lee . 29 January 2021 . CNA . en . January 29, 2021 . https://web.archive.org/web/20210129132410/https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/world/us-china-reconsider-positions-trade-war-lee-hsien-loong-11949198 . dead .
  391. News: Singaporeans warned of some fallout from trade war . 29 January 2021 . The Straits Times . 24 June 2019 . en.
  392. Web site: Trump suggests 'second thoughts' about China tariff war, triggers confusion at G-7 summit . McGraw . Meridith . . August 25, 2019.
  393. News: 'Senseless disputes': E.U.'s Tusk says Trump's trade wars are damaging global economy . . August 24, 2019.
  394. Web site: The US–China trade deal is 'very important' for Chile, says the vice minister for trade. November 29, 2019. CNBC.
  395. News: Galwan clash 'huge mistake' by China, world already fighting Covid-19: Experts . Hindustan Times . PTI . June 27, 2020.
  396. News: India working to restrict Chinese goods, investments since before Galwan, Covid: Officials . The Print . The Print . June 19, 2020 . "We cannot follow the Americans. Even they had to do a deal with the Chinese," Dhar said, referring to the US Commerce Department allowing American firms to work with Chinese telecom major Huawei earlier this week, an issue that was one of main reasons for the trade war between US and China..
  397. News: Nalapat . M D . India may re-evaluate neutrality in the US–China war . Sunday Guardian Live . ITV Network . June 20, 2020.
  398. News: How India responds to China's 'expansionistic tendencies' will have ramifications for the world . Indian Express . Indian Express . July 10, 2020 . The US and western powers have been very vocal in calling out Beijing in recent times. US–China relations have hit rock bottom, especially since Donald Trump took office. The US–China trade war is now taking a toll on the world system. For example, it is creating fissures among ASEAN members...I am not advocating for joining a US-lead platform as a devoted member. To push back against Chinese adventurism by deepening dependence on another power also runs counter to the very logic of protecting our national sovereignty. India today is strong enough to stand for her interest and yet must be adroit enough to find common ground with those with whom her interests align, whether to its West or East. China must be made to choose: Is it willing to push the equally proud, equally numerous, equally historical and glorious civilisation to the south in this long-term direction for a few square kilometres of territory and a round of chest-thumping?.
  399. News: Bhattacharjee . Govind . The China Trade . The Statesman . The Statesman . July 6, 2020 . This has given India one lifetime opportunity to attract investments and companies away from China unto itself. Hence the Prime Minister's emphasis on 'Buy Local, Be Global' and Atmanirbhar Bharat, and to ultimately substitute China as the world's supplier. Unfortunately, it is not only cheap labour and improvement in the ease of doing business that will enable India to claim a substantial share of China's global business. We also need to understand that we are not the only player vying for the pie...Of the 56 companies that relocated their production bases from China in the aftermath of the US–China trade war of 2018–19, only three came to India and the rest went to Vietnam, Taiwan and Thailand. In contrast, it is only now that the Government is focusing on the long-overdue factor market reforms including the labour laws which have already run into a judicial stonewall..
  400. Web site: Joshi . Manoj . Can India still avoid becoming collateral damage in US–China row? . ORF . June 17, 2020.
  401. News: Chari . Seshadri . As armies 'retreat' at LAC, India must turn to options it hasn't used against China so far . The Print . July 10, 2020.

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