Chicago Mercantile Exchange Hurricane Index Explained

The Chicago Mercantile Exchange Hurricane Index (CMEHI) is an index which describes the potential for damage from an Atlantic hurricane in the United States. The CMEHI is used as the basis for trading hurricane futures and options on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME).[1] It is very similar to the Hurricane Severity Index, which also factors both size and intensity of a hurricane.[2]

Index calculation

The CMEHI takes as input two variables: the maximum sustained wind speed of a hurricane in miles per hour and the radius to hurricane-force winds of a hurricane in miles (i.e. how far from the center of the hurricane winds of 74 mph or greater are experienced). If the maximum sustained wind speed is denoted by V and the radius to hurricane-force winds is denoted by R then the CMEHI is calculated as follows:

CMEHI=\left(

V
V0

\right)3+

3
2

\left(

R
R0

\right)\left(

V
V0

\right)2

where the subscript 0 denotes reference values. For use on the CME, the reference values of 74 mph and 60 miles are used for the maximum sustained wind speed and radius of hurricane-force winds respectively.

Index history and data

The development of the CMEHI was based on work published by Lakshmi Kantha at the Department of Aerospace Studies at the University of Colorado in Boulder, Colorado. Kantha's paper[3] in Eos developed a number of indices based on various characteristics of hurricanes. The ReAdvisory team at the reinsurance broker RK Carvill[4] used the basics of the Kantha paper to develop an index which became the Carvill Hurricane Index (CHI). In 2009, the scale was renamed the Chicago Mercantile Exchange Hurricane Index (CMEHI).[5]

The data for the CMEHI comes from the public advisories issued for named storms by the National Hurricane Center. Specifically, to determine the maximum sustained wind speed, the following verbiage is looked for:

To determine the radius to hurricane-force winds, the following phrase is looked for:

For example, Advisory 23A[6] for Hurricane Katrina at 1pm Central daylight time on Sunday, August 28, 2005, gave the maximum sustained wind speed of 175 mph and the radius of hurricane-force winds of 105 miles resulting in a CMEHI value of 27.9.

Data

Public advisories from the National Hurricane Center are archived back to 1998. The table below lists the CMEHI values for all the landfalling hurricanes since 1998 based on the NHC Public Advisories, and uses alternate sources for hurricanes between 1989 and 1998.

CMEHI indices of historical storms (1989 – present)
NameYearLandfallNHC advisory numberWindspeed at/near landfall (operational)Radius of hurricane–force winds at/near landfallCMEHI indexRef(s)
N/A bgcolor=#75kn 25miles 2.3 [7]
N/A bgcolor=#120kn 85miles 14.4 [8]
N/A bgcolor=#110kn 85miles 10.9
N/A bgcolor=#120kn 140miles 19.3 [9]
N/A bgcolor=#125kn 25miles 9.9 [10]
N/A bgcolor=#75kn 35miles 2.7 [11]
N/A bgcolor=#95kn 30miles 4.9 [12]
N/A bgcolor=#100kn 60miles 7.4 [13]
N/A bgcolor=#90kn 115miles 8.6 [14]
44 bgcolor=#100kn 175miles 14.3 [15]
N/A bgcolor=#70kn 60miles 3.0 [16]
N/A bgcolor=#65kn 20miles 1.5 [17]
33 bgcolor=#85kn 115miles 7.7 [18]
11A bgcolor=#70kn 115miles 4.6 [19]
26B bgcolor=#100kn 85miles 8.9 [20]
52 bgcolor=#90kn 45miles 5.1 [21]
17A bgcolor=#110kn 40miles 7.7 [22]
34A bgcolor=#95kn 115miles 9.6 [23]
10 bgcolor=#65kn 45miles 2.1 [24]
49 bgcolor=#80kn 70miles 4.4 [25]
28A bgcolor=#70kn 30miles 2.1 [26]
49A bgcolor=#85kn 115miles 7.7 [27]
18 bgcolor=#125kn 30miles 10.4 [28]
44A bgcolor=#90kn 75miles 6.6 [29]
55B bgcolor=#115kn 105miles 13.5 [30]
49B bgcolor=#100kn 70miles 8.0 [31]
25B bgcolor=#105kn 40miles 6.9 [32]
9 bgcolor=#65kn 15miles 1.4 [33]
26A bgcolor=#125kn 120miles 19.0 [34]
26B bgcolor=#105kn 85miles 9.9 [35]
36 bgcolor=#110kn 90miles 11.2 [36]
4 bgcolor=#70kn 15miles 1.7 [37]
13A bgcolor=#85kn 25miles 3.6 [38]
31B bgcolor=#95kn 70miles 7.2 [39]
48B bgcolor=#95kn 120miles 9.9 [40]
7 bgcolor=#65kn 15miles 1.4 [41]
28A bgcolor=#75kn 90miles 4.5 [42]
33 bgcolor=#70kn 60miles 3.0 [43]
13 bgcolor=#85kn 40miles 4.3 [44]
19A bgcolor=#70kn 45miles 2.6 [45]
42 bgcolor=#65kn 25miles 1.6 [46]
23 bgcolor=#115kn 40miles 8.5 [47]
45A bgcolor=#115kn 80miles 11.6 [48]
17 bgcolor=#135kn 60miles 15.8 [49]
14A bgcolor=#75kn 40miles 2.8 [50]
61 bgcolor=#70kn 70miles 3.3 [51]
16A bgcolor=#135kn 45miles 14.1 [52]
13 bgcolor=#65kn 45miles 2.1 [53]
52A bgcolor=#80kn 45miles 3.5 [54]
12 bgcolor=#80kn 30miles 2.9 [55]
28 bgcolor=#75kn 25miles 2.3 [56]
29A bgcolor=#130kn 60miles 14.5 [57]
21 bgcolor=#90kn 40miles 4.9 [58]
Update bgcolor=#85kn 40miles 4.3 [59]
17 bgcolor=#95kn 35miles 5.2 [60]
14 bgcolor=#130kn 50miles 13.5 [61]
8A bgcolor=#65kn 25miles 1.6 [62]
17A bgcolor=#75kn 30miles 2.5 [63]
24A bgcolor=#135kn 45miles 14.1 [64]
33 bgcolor=#75kn 70miles 3.8 [65]
15 bgcolor=#115kn 25miles 7.4 [66]

Prior to 1998, the data becomes sparse. However, using data from the HURSAT[67] database at NOAA it is possible to construct a set of CMEHI values for storms back to 1983.

Modeled data is available from a number of sources:

Notes

  1. Web site: CME Hurricane Index Futures and Options . CME Group . 3 October 2022.
  2. Web site: The Hurricane Severity Index – A destructive potential rating system for tropical cyclones. 28th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology. Chris Hebert (ImpactWeather Inc.), B. Weinzapfel, and M. Chambers. American Meteorological Society. 2022-10-02. 1 May 2008. https://web.archive.org/web/20090314011912/http://ams.confex.com/ams/28Hurricanes/techprogram/paper_139371.htm. 14 March 2009. dead.
  3. L. Kantha, "Time to Replace the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale?", Eos, Vol. 87, No. 1, 3 January 2006
  4. http://www.carvill.com RK Carvill website
  5. Web site: CME Group Acquires & Renames Hurricane Index; Selects New Calculation Agent - CME Investor Relations. investor.cmegroup.com. 2017-10-09.
  6. http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2005/pub/al122005.public_a.023.shtml? Katrina Advisory 23A
  7. Web site: Fahlgren . Susan . URGENT Hurricane Jerry Hits Texas Coast; At Least Two Dead . The Associated Press . 2 October 2022.
  8. Web site: Pietri . Nilsa . Hurricane Hugo aimed its 140-mph winds Sunday at Puerto... . UPI Archives . 3 October 2022.
  9. News: Parker . Laura . Booth . William . Hurricane Hugo Rips Through South Carolina . The Washington Post . 2 October 2022.
  10. Web site: Tester . Hank . How did Hurricane Ian compare to Hurricane Andrew? . CBS News Miami . 2 October 2022.
  11. News: Booth . William . WEAK BUT WET HURRICANE ERIN STRIKES CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST . The Washington Post . 2 October 2022.
  12. Web site: Hierso . Daniel . Hurricane Marilyn Clobbers Martinique, Dominica, Pushes Westward . The Associated Press . 2 October 2022.
  13. News: Smothers . Ronald . Deadly Hurricane Opal Loses Power as It Races North . The New York Times . 6 October 1995 . 2 October 2022.
  14. News: Bornemeier . James . Clary . Mike . Bertha Hits N.C. Outer Banks, Kicks Up Wave of Evacuees . LA Times . 2 October 2022.
  15. Web site: Dempsey . Dave . Hurricane Fran Advisory Number 44 . National Hurricane Center . 2 October 2022.
  16. Web site: Faul . Michelle . HORTENSE HITS ISLAND, AIMS AT U.S. . News & Record . The Associated Press . 2 October 2022.
  17. Rappaport . Edward . Atlantic Hurricane Season of 1997 . Monthly Weather Review . 1999 . 127 . 9 . 2012–2026 . American Meteorological Society . 10.1175/1520-0493(1999)127<2012:AHSO>2.0.CO;2 . 1999MWRv..127.2012R . 2 October 2022. free .
  18. Web site: Pasch . Richard . Hurricane Bonnie Advisory Number 33 . National Hurricane Center . 30 August 2020.
  19. Web site: Avila . Lixion . Hurricane Earl Intermediate Advisory Number 11A . National Hurricane Center . 30 August 2020.
  20. Web site: Guiney . John L. . Hurricane Georges Intermediate Advisory Number 26B . National Hurricane Center . 30 August 2020.
  21. Web site: Avila . Lixion . Hurricane Georges Advisory Number 52 . National Hurricane Center . 30 August 2020.
  22. Web site: Guiney . John L. . Hurricane Bret Intermediate Advisory Number 17A . National Hurricane Center . 30 August 2020.
  23. Web site: Guiney . John L. . Hurricane Floyd Intermediate Advisory Number 34A . National Hurricane Center . 30 August 2020.
  24. Web site: Franklin . James . Hurricane Irene Advisory Number 10 . National Hurricane Center . 30 August 2020.
  25. Web site: Avila . Lixion . Hurricane Lili Advisory Number 49 . National Hurricane Center . 30 August 2020.
  26. Web site: Beven . Jack . Hurricane Claudette Intermediate Advisory Number 28A . National Hurricane Center . 30 August 2020.
  27. Web site: Franklin . James . Hurricane Isabel Intermediate Advisory Number 49A . National Hurricane Center . 30 August 2020.
  28. Web site: Lawrence . Miles B. . Hurricane Charley Special Advisory Number 18...Corrected . National Hurricane Center . 30 August 2020.
  29. Web site: Lawrence . Miles B. . Hurricane Frances Intermediate Advisory Number 44A . National Hurricane Center . 30 August 2020.
  30. Web site: Lixion . Avila . Hurricane Ivan Intermediate Advisory Number 55B . National Hurricane Center . 30 August 2020.
  31. Web site: Pasch . Richard . Hurricane Jeanne Intermediate Advisory Number 49B . National Hurricane Center . 30 August 2020.
  32. Web site: Franklin . James . Hurricane Dennis Intermediate Advisory Number 25B . National Hurricane Center . 30 August 2020.
  33. Web site: Stewart . Stacy . Hurricane Katrina Advisory Number 9 . National Hurricane Center . 30 August 2020.
  34. Web site: Stewart . Stacy . Hurricane Katrina Intermediate Advisory Number 26A...Corrected . National Hurricane Center . 30 August 2020.
  35. Web site: Beven . Jack . Hurricane Rita Intermediate Advisory Number 26B . National Hurricane Center . 30 August 2020.
  36. Web site: Pasch . Richard . Hurricane Wilma Advisory Number 36 . National Hurricane Center . 30 August 2020.
  37. Web site: Mainelli . Michelle . Lixion . Avila . Hurricane Humberto Special Advisory Number 4 . National Hurricane Center . 30 August 2020.
  38. Web site: Avila . Lixion . Hurricane Dolly Intermediate Advisory Number 13A . National Hurricane Center . 30 August 2020.
  39. Web site: Beven . Jack . Hurricane Gustav Intermediate Advisory Number 31B . National Hurricane Center . 30 August 2020.
  40. Web site: Beven . Jack . Rhome . Jamie . Hurricane Ike Intermediate Advisory Number 48B . National Hurricane Center . 30 August 2020.
  41. Web site: Stewart . Stacy . Hurricane Irene Advisory Number 7 . National Hurricane Center . 30 August 2020.
  42. Web site: Brown . Daniel . Hurricane Irene Intermediate Advisory Number 28A . National Hurricane Center . 30 August 2020.
  43. Web site: Pasch . Richard . Roberts . Dave . Hurricane Isaac Advisory Number 33 . National Hurricane Center . 30 August 2020.
  44. Web site: Beven . Jack . Hurricane Arthur Advisory Number 13 . National Hurricane Center . 30 August 2020.
  45. Web site: Avila . Lixion . Stewart . Stacy . Hurricane Hermine Intermediate Advisory Number 19A . National Hurricane Center . 30 August 2020.
  46. Web site: Avila . Lixion . Hurricane Matthew Advisory Number 42 . National Hurricane Center . 30 August 2020.
  47. Web site: Beven . Jack . Hurricane Harvey Advisory Number 23 . National Hurricane Center . 30 August 2020.
  48. Web site: Pasch . Richard . Hurricane Irma Intermediate Advisory Number 45A . National Hurricane Center . 30 August 2020.
  49. Web site: Pasch . Richard . Hurricane Maria Advisory Number 17 . National Hurricane Center . 30 August 2020.
  50. Web site: Berg . Robbie . Hurricane Nate Intermediate Advisory Number 14A . National Hurricane Center . 30 August 2020.
  51. Web site: Stewart . Stacy . Hurricane Florence Advisory Number 61 . National Hurricane Center . 30 August 2020.
  52. Web site: Brown . Daniel . Hurricane Michael Intermediate Advisory Number 16A...Corrected . National Hurricane Center . 30 August 2020.
  53. Web site: Beven . Jack . Hurricane Barry Advisory Number 13 . National Hurricane Center . 30 August 2020.
  54. Web site: Beven . Jack . Hurricane Dorian Intermediate Advisory Number 52A . National Hurricane Center . 30 August 2020.
  55. Web site: Stewart . Stacy . Hurricane Hanna Advisory Number 12 . National Hurricane Center . 30 August 2020.
  56. Web site: Beven . Jack . Hurricane Isaias Advisory Number 28 . National Hurricane Center . 30 August 2020.
  57. Web site: Cangialosi . John . Blake . Eric . Zelinsky . David . Hurricane Laura Intermediate Advisory Number 29A . National Hurricane Center . 30 August 2020.
  58. Web site: Stewart . Stacy . Hurricane Sally Advisory Number 21 . National Hurricane Center . 30 August 2020.
  59. Web site: Brown . Daniel . Hurricane Delta Tropical Cyclone Update . National Hurricane Center . 30 August 2020.
  60. Web site: Pasch . Richard . Hurricane Zeta Advisory Number 17 . National Hurricane Center . 30 August 2020.
  61. Web site: Brown . Daniel . Hurricane Ida Advisory Number 14 . National Hurricane Center . 30 September 2022.
  62. Web site: Blake . Eric . Hurricane Nicholas Intermediate Advisory Number 8A. National Hurricane Center . 30 September 2022.
  63. Web site: Pasch . Richard . Hurricane Fiona Intermediate Advisory Number 17A. National Hurricane Center . 30 September 2022.
  64. Web site: Blake . Eric . Hurricane Ian Intermediate Advisory Number 24A. National Hurricane Center . 30 September 2022.
  65. Web site: Blake . Eric . Hurricane Ian Intermediate Advisory Number 32A. National Hurricane Center . 30 September 2022.
  66. Web site: Blake . Eric . Hurricane Idalia Advisory Number 15...Corrected. National Hurricane Center . 30 August 2023.
  67. http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/rsad/hursat/ Hurricane Satellite

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