| Election Name: | 2015 Canarian regional election |
| Country: | Canary Islands |
| Type: | parliamentary |
| Ongoing: | no |
| Previous Election: | 2011 Canarian regional election |
| Previous Year: | 2011 |
| Next Election: | 2019 Canarian regional election |
| Next Year: | 2019 |
| Seats For Election: | All 60 seats in the Parliament of the Canary Islands |
| Majority Seats: | 31 |
| Opinion Polls: |
|
| Registered: | 1,661,272 |
| Turnout: | 931,876 (56.1%) 2.8 pp |
| Election Date: | 24 May 2015 |
| Leader1: | Fernando Clavijo |
| Party1: | CCa–PNC |
| Colour1: | FFD700 |
| Leader Since1: | 12 September 2014 |
| Leaders Seat1: | Tenerife |
| Last Election1: | 21 seats, 24.9% |
| Seats1: | 18 |
| Seat Change1: | 3 |
| Popular Vote1: | 166,979 |
| Percentage1: | 18.2% |
| Swing1: | 6.7 pp |
| Leader2: | Patricia Hernández |
| Party2: | Socialist Party of the Canaries |
| Leader Since2: | 19 October 2014 |
| Leaders Seat2: | Tenerife |
| Last Election2: | 15 seats, 21.0% |
| Seats2: | 15 |
| Seat Change2: | 0 |
| Popular Vote2: | 182,006 |
| Percentage2: | 19.9% |
| Swing2: | 1.1 pp |
| Leader3: | Australia Navarro |
| Party3: | People's Party of the Canary Islands |
| Leader Since3: | 6 March 2015 |
| Leaders Seat3: | Gran Canaria |
| Last Election3: | 21 seats, 31.9% |
| Seats3: | 12 |
| Seat Change3: | 9 |
| Popular Vote3: | 170,129 |
| Percentage3: | 18.6% |
| Swing3: | 13.3 pp |
| Leader4: | Noemí Santana |
| Party4: | Podemos (Spanish political party) |
| Leader Since4: | 1 April 2015 |
| Leaders Seat4: | Gran Canaria |
| Last Election4: | Did not contest |
| Seats4: | 7 |
| Seat Change4: | 7 |
| Popular Vote4: | 133,044 |
| Percentage4: | 14.5% |
| Swing4: | New party |
| Leader5: | Román Rodríguez |
| Party5: | New Canaries |
| Leader Since5: | 26 February 2005 |
| Leaders Seat5: | Gran Canaria |
| Last Election5: | 2 seats, 8.4% |
| Seats5: | 5 |
| Seat Change5: | 3 |
| Popular Vote5: | 93,634 |
| Percentage5: | 10.2% |
| Swing5: | 1.8 pp |
| Leader6: | Casimiro Curbelo |
| Party6: | Gomera Socialist Group |
| Leader Since6: | 6 March 2015 |
| Leaders Seat6: | La Gomera |
| Last Election6: | Did not contest |
| Seats6: | 3 |
| Seat Change6: | 3 |
| Popular Vote6: | 5,090 |
| Percentage6: | 0.6% |
| Swing6: | New party |
| Map Size: | 400px |
| President | |
| Before Election: | Paulino Rivero |
| Before Party: | CCa |
| After Election: | Fernando Clavijo |
| After Party: | CCa |
The 2015 Canarian regional election was held on Sunday, 24 May 2015, to elect the 9th Parliament of the Autonomous Community of the Canary Islands. All 60 seats in the Parliament were up for election. The election was held simultaneously with regional elections in twelve other autonomous communities and local elections all throughout Spain.
The Parliament of the Canary Islands was the devolved, unicameral legislature of the autonomous community of the Canary Islands, having legislative power in regional matters as defined by the Spanish Constitution and the Canarian Statute of Autonomy, as well as the ability to vote confidence in or withdraw it from a regional president.[1] Voting for the Parliament was on the basis of universal suffrage, which comprised all nationals over 18 years of age, registered in the Canary Islands and in full enjoyment of their political rights. Additionally, Canarians abroad were required to apply for voting before being permitted to vote, a system known as "begged" or expat vote (Spanish; Castilian: Voto rogado).[2]
The 60 members of the Parliament of the Canary Islands were elected using the D'Hondt method and a closed list proportional representation, with an electoral threshold of 30 percent of valid votes—which included blank ballots—being applied in each constituency. Alternatively, parties could also enter the seat distribution as long as they reached six percent regionally. Seats were allocated to constituencies, corresponding to the islands of El Hierro, Fuerteventura, Gran Canaria, La Gomera, La Palma, Lanzarote and Tenerife, with each being allocated a fixed number of seats:[1]
| Seats | Constituencies | |
|---|---|---|
| 15 | Gran Canaria, Tenerife | |
| 8 | La Palma, Lanzarote | |
| 7 | Fuerteventura | |
| 4 | La Gomera | |
| 3 | El Hierro |
The term of the Parliament of the Canary Islands expired four years after the date of its previous election, with elections to the Parliament being fixed for the fourth Sunday of May every four years. The previous election was held on 22 May 2011, setting the election date for the Parliament on Sunday, 24 May 2015.[1] [3] [4]
The Parliament of the Canary Islands could not be dissolved before the date of expiry of parliament except in the event of an investiture process failing to elect a regional president within a two-month period from the first ballot. In such a case, the Parliament was to be automatically dissolved and a fresh election called, with elected deputies merely serving out what remained of their four-year terms.[1]
The electoral law allowed for parties and federations registered in the interior ministry, coalitions and groupings of electors to present lists of candidates. Parties and federations intending to form a coalition ahead of an election were required to inform the relevant Electoral Commission within ten days of the election call, whereas groupings of electors needed to secure the signature of at least one percent of the electorate in the constituencies for which they sought election, disallowing electors from signing for more than one list of candidates.[4]
Below is a list of the main parties and electoral alliances which contested the election:
| Candidacy | Parties and alliances | Candidate | Ideology | Previous result | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Votes (%) | Seats | ||||||||
| PP | Australia Navarro | Conservatism Christian democracy | 31.94% | [5] | |||||
| CCa–PNC | Fernando Clavijo | Regionalism Canarian nationalism Centrism | 24.94% | [6] | |||||
| PSOE | Patricia Hernández | Social democracy | 20.98% | [7] | |||||
| NCa | Román Rodríguez | Canarian nationalism Social democracy | 9.07% | [8] [9] [10] | |||||
| Podemos | Noemí Santana | Left-wing populism Direct democracy Democratic socialism | [11] | ||||||
| Cs | Melisa Rodríguez | Liberalism | [12] | ||||||
| ASG | Casimiro Curbelo | Insularism Social democracy | [13] | ||||||
The table below lists voting intention estimates in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first and using the dates when the survey fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. Where the fieldwork dates are unknown, the date of publication is given instead. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed with its background shaded in the leading party's colour. If a tie ensues, this is applied to the figures with the highest percentages. The "Lead" column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the parties with the highest percentages in a poll. When available, seat projections determined by the polling organisations are displayed below (or in place of) the percentages in a smaller font; 31 seats were required for an absolute majority in the Parliament of the Canary Islands.
| Polling firm/Commissioner | Fieldwork date | Sample size | Turnout | LV | PPM | U | Lead | ||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 regional election | 24 May 2015 | 56.1 | 18.6 | 18.2 | 19.9 | 10.2 | – | 0.9 | 2.2 | 14.5 | 5.9 | 0.6 | 3.6 | 1.3 | |||||
| NC Report/La Razón[14] [15] [16] | 17 May 2015 | 1,150 | ? | 20.9 | 19.2 | 17.8 | 8.9 | – | – | – | – | 12.5 | 9.2 | ? | – | 1.7 | |||
| Hamalgama Métrica/La Opinión[17] [18] | ?–16 May 2015 | ? | 61.9 | 18.7 | 19.4 | 18.4 | 8.7 | – | – | – | – | 14.1 | 8.6 | 0.3 | – | 0.7 | |||
| Perfiles/Diario de Avisos[19] [20] | 4–14 May 2015 | 3,000 | ? | 20.0– 21.0 | 20.0– 21.0 | 18.0– 19.0 | 9.0– 10.0 | – | – | – | – | 9.0– 10.0 | 9.0– 10.0 | 0.0– 1.0 | 4.0– 5.0 | Tie | |||
| Focus Investigación[21] [22] | 20 Apr 2015 | 6,840 | ? | 20.5 | 23.6 | 19.3 | 7.4 | – | – | 4.7 | 12.1 | 7.0 | – | – | 3.1 | ||||
| Perfiles/Diario de Avisos[23] [24] [25] | 7–20 Apr 2015 | 3,000 | ? | 19.0– 20.0 | 18.0– 19.0 | 18.0– 19.0 | 7.0– 8.0 | – | – | – | – | 10.0– 11.0 | 10.0– 11.0 | 0.0– 1.0 | 4.0– 5.0 | 1.0 | |||
| CIS[26] [27] | 23 Mar–19 Apr 2015 | 1,723 | ? | 20.8 | 18.9 | 20.4 | 5.2 | – | – | 0.7 | 4.1 | 15.8 | 10.7 | – | – | 0.4 | |||
| TSA/Canarias7[28] [29] | 26 Mar–9 Apr 2015 | 2,779 | ? | 19.7 | 18.9 | 18.4 | 11.9 | – | – | – | – | 11.1 | 9.3 | 0.5 | 4.1 | 0.8 | |||
| NC Report/La Razón[30] [31] [32] | 23 Mar–9 Apr 2015 | 1,150 | ? | 22.2 | 20.2 | 18.2 | 8.9 | – | – | – | – | 11.8 | 7.1 | ? | – | 2.0 | |||
| Hamalgama Métrica/La Provincia [33] [34] [35] | 10–28 Nov 2014 | 2,400 | 62.4 | 24.2 | 21.2 | 18.8 | 8.6 | 2.3 | 1.6 | 2.5 | 0.5 | 18.4 | – | 0.6 | – | 3.0 | |||
| 62.4 | 24.2 | 21.2 | 18.8 | 8.6 | 2.6 | 2.3 | 1.6 | 2.5 | 0.5 | 15.8 | – | 0.6 | – | 3.0 | |||||
| 62.4 | 24.2 | 21.2 | 19.4 | 8.6 | 2.6 | 2.3 | 1.6 | 2.5 | 0.5 | 15.8 | – | – | – | 3.0 | |||||
| Llorente & Cuenca[36] | 31 Oct 2014 | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | – | – | ? | – | – | ? | – | – | – | ? | ||
| Celeste-Tel/Diario de Avisos[37] | 4–14 Aug 2014 | 2,800 | 60.9 | 23.8 | 21.1 | 18.0 | 10.3 | – | – | 1.2 | 2.2 | – | 13.2 | – | – | – | 2.7 | ||
| 2014 EP election[38] | 25 May 2014 | 35.0 | 23.4 | 12.2 | 22.2 | – | – | 6.9 | 10.5 | – | 11.0 | 1.4 | – | – | 1.2 | ||||
| Celeste-Tel/Diario de Avisos[39] | 5–16 Apr 2014 | 3,200 | ? | 24.9 | 24.3 | 20.9 | 13.0 | 3.9 | 3.0 | 3.1 | 4.1 | 0.5 | – | – | – | – | 0.6 | ||
| Focus Investigación/CC[40] | 7 Dec 2013 | 3,200 | ? | 20.5 | 22.4 | 20.0 | ? | – | – | – | 11.3 | – | – | – | – | – | 1.9 | ||
| Hamalgama Métrica/La Provincia[41] [42] | 25 Nov–5 Dec 2013 | 1,600 | 55.0 | 29.0 | 23.2 | 19.5 | 11.4 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 2.7 | 3.7 | 0.5 | – | – | – | – | 5.8 | ||
| Demométrica/PSOE[43] | 21 Nov–4 Dec 2013 | 2,500 | ? | 23.3 | 24.9 | 22.7 | 10.0 | – | – | – | 6.3 | – | – | – | – | – | 1.6 | ||
| NC Report/La Razón[44] [45] | 15 Oct–12 Nov 2013 | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | – | – | – | ? | – | – | – | – | – | ? | ||
| NC Report/La Razón[46] [47] [48] | 15 Apr–10 May 2013 | 300 | ? | 27.6 | 26.7 | 19.7 | ? | – | – | – | ? | – | – | – | – | – | 0.9 | ||
| 2011 general election | 20 Nov 2011 | 59.6 | 48.0 | 15.5 | 24.9 | – | 2.6 | 4.3 | – | – | – | – | – | 23.1 | |||||
| 2011 regional election | 22 May 2011 | 58.9 | 31.9 | 24.9 | 21.0 | 9.1 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.5 | – | – | – | – | 7.0 | |||
| Parties and alliances | Popular vote | Seats | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Votes | % | ±pp | Total | +/− | |||
| Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE) | 182,006 | 19.89 | –1.09 | 15 | ±0 | ||
| People's Party (PP) | 170,129 | 18.59 | –13.35 | 12 | –9 | ||
| Canarian Coalition–Canarian Nationalist Party (CCa–PNC) | 166,979 | 18.25 | –6.69 | 18 | –3 | ||
| We Can (Podemos) | 133,044 | 14.54 | New | 7 | +7 | ||
| New Canaries (NCa) | 93,634 | 10.23 | +1.81 | 5 | +3 | ||
| Citizens–Party of the Citizenry (C's) | 54,375 | 5.94 | New | 0 | ±0 | ||
| United (Unidos)1 | 32,868 | 3.59 | +1.66 | 0 | –1 | ||
| Canaries Decides (IUC–LV–UP–ALTER)2 | 20,155 | 2.20 | –0.76 | 0 | ±0 | ||
| Animalist Party Against Mistreatment of Animals (PACMA) | 11,296 | 1.23 | +0.93 | 0 | ±0 | ||
| Union, Progress and Democracy (UPyD) | 7,819 | 0.85 | –0.15 | 0 | ±0 | ||
| Canarian Nationalist Alternative (ANC) | 5,635 | 0.62 | –0.12 | 0 | ±0 | ||
| Gomera Socialist Group (ASG) | 5,090 | 0.56 | New | 3 | +3 | ||
| More for Telde (+xT) | 3,390 | 0.37 | New | 0 | ±0 | ||
| Communist Party of the Canarian People (PCPC) | 1,861 | 0.20 | –0.06 | 0 | ±0 | ||
| For a Fairer World (PUM+J) | 1,827 | 0.20 | +0.04 | 0 | ±0 | ||
| Vox (Vox) | 1,814 | 0.20 | New | 0 | ±0 | ||
| Movement for the Unity of the Canarian People (MUPC) | 1,777 | 0.19 | +0.05 | 0 | ±0 | ||
| Zero Cuts (Recortes Cero) | 1,498 | 0.16 | New | 0 | ±0 | ||
| Municipal Assemblies of Fuerteventura (AMF) | 1,447 | 0.16 | New | 0 | ±0 | ||
| Blank Seats (EB) | 1,363 | 0.15 | New | 0 | ±0 | ||
| Internationalist Solidarity and Self-Management (SAIn) | 330 | 0.04 | New | 0 | ±0 | ||
| Blank ballots | 16,769 | 1.83 | –0.93 | ||||
| Total | 915,106 | 60 | ±0 | ||||
| Valid votes | 915,106 | 98.20 | +0.89 | ||||
| Invalid votes | 16,770 | 1.80 | –0.89 | ||||
| Votes cast / turnout | 931,876 | 56.09 | –2.82 | ||||
| Abstentions | 729,396 | 43.91 | +2.82 | ||||
| Registered voters | 1,661,272 | ||||||
| Sources[49] [50] | |||||||
| Constituency | PSOE | PP | CC–PNC | Podemos | NCa | ASG | |||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| data-sort-type="number" | % | data-sort-type="number" | S | data-sort-type="number" | % | data-sort-type="number" | S | data-sort-type="number" | % | data-sort-type="number" | S | data-sort-type="number" | % | data-sort-type="number" | S | data-sort-type="number" | % | data-sort-type="number" | S | data-sort-type="number" | % | data-sort-type="number" | S |
| El Hierro | 22.1 | 1 | 17.1 | − | 41.8 | 2 | 6.7 | − | 6.5 | − | |||||||||||||
| Fuerteventura | 17.4 | 2 | 13.6 | 1 | 28.1 | 3 | 12.2 | 1 | 6.7 | − | |||||||||||||
| Gran Canaria | 17.5 | 3 | 20.4 | 4 | 6.2 | 1 | 17.0 | 3 | 18.4 | 4 | |||||||||||||
| La Gomera | 16.4 | 1 | 10.3 | − | 10.5 | − | 8.8 | − | 5.9 | − | 43.0 | 3 | |||||||||||
| La Palma | 24.6 | 2 | 24.7 | 3 | 30.3 | 3 | 6.5 | − | 2.8 | − | |||||||||||||
| Lanzarote | 21.0 | 2 | 13.0 | 1 | 22.2 | 3 | 14.7 | 1 | 8.3 | 1 | |||||||||||||
| Tenerife | 22.0 | 4 | 17.5 | 3 | 27.6 | 6 | 13.4 | 2 | 3.4 | − | |||||||||||||
| Total | 19.9 | 15 | 18.6 | 12 | 18.2 | 18 | 14.5 | 7 | 10.2 | 5 | 0.6 | 3 | |||||||||||
