This region was largely rural until the 1960s, and its then three ridings usually supported the Progressive Conservatives. In the 1960s and 1970s as it urbanized and its number of seats gradually doubled to seven, it solidly supported the Liberals (Grits) and even gave the New Democratic Party two seats in 1972's tight election. From 1979 until the 1990s its seat split reflected but slightly exaggerated the national result between the Grits and Tories, with the NDP usually shut out.
By the 1990s, with the large proportion of immigrants in the region and urban growth increasing the region's seats to 13, suburban Toronto, like Ontario as a whole, swung hard to the Liberals. For two decades, suburban Ontario was the Liberals' power base; from 1993 to 2008, Liberal candidates swept the region, making this region to the Liberals what Rural Alberta was to the Conservatives. In some ridings, the Liberals defeated their closest opponents by margins of 3-1 or more. The NDP had a few pockets of support, as they did in all of southern Ontario. The Conservatives didn't even register on the radar screen at first; the centre-right had been more or less nonexistent in the former Metro Toronto since the Tories lost all of their seats here in 1993. Even when the Conservatives won minority governments in 2006 and 2008, they were completely shut out in Toronto.
This changed in 2011, when a slight uptick in Conservative support, combined with vote splitting between the Liberals, NDP and Greens allowed the Conservatives to take six seats in the region - including Liberal leader Michael Ignatieff's Etobicoke—Lakeshore riding, albeit in most cases by narrow margins (as few as 26 votes in one riding). Meanwhile, the national surge of NDP support allowed them to take two in eastern Toronto. However, even though the Liberals only had four of the now 12 seats (reduced from 13 due to population growth elsewhere in Southern Ontario) the Liberals led slightly in terms of popular vote.
The region reverted to form in 2015, as a massive surge in Liberal support allowed the Liberals to win all 14 seats (increased due to intensification, particularly in North York Centre) here en route to taking all of Toronto. In all but one seat (York Centre), the Liberals won by 5,500 or more votes.
| Election | / | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1979 | 216,558 39.0% | 108,335 19.5% | 224,930 40.5% | 4,498 0.8% | |||||||||||
| 1980 | 241,807 45.5% | 99,860 18.8% | 184,937 34.8% | 4,422 0.8% | |||||||||||
| 1984 | 207,881 35.9% | 98,008 16.9% | 1,155 0.2% | 264,282 45.6% | 7,047 1.2% | ||||||||||
| 1988 | 235,688 41.3% | 98,652 17.3% | 1,353 0.2% | 223,328 39.1% | 11,440 2.0% | ||||||||||
| 1993 | 319,633 58.5% | 20,720 3.8% | 1,021 0.2% | 92,321 16.9% | 95,884 17.5% | 16,254 3.0% | |||||||||
| 1997 | 296,140 60.2% | 38,061 7.7% | 1,464 0.3% | 81,995 16.7% | 70,008 14.2% | 4,651 0.9% | |||||||||
| 2000 | 297,513 65.3% | 28,281 6.2% | 532 0.1% | 49,447 10.9% | 74,911 16.4% | 2,562 0.6% | |||||||||
| 2004 | 276,372 57.5% | 111,637 23.2% | 64,146 13.3% | 14,762 3.1% | 11,576 2.4% | ||||||||||
| 2006 | 297,480 55.2% | 147,796 27.4% | 71,660 13.3% | 18,790 3.5% | 2,078 0.4% | ||||||||||
| 2008 | 236,655 49.7% | 146,574 30.8% | 62,604 13.2% | 27,851 5.9% | 1,489 0.3% | ||||||||||
| 2011 | 185,020 36.6% | 184,456 36.5% | 122,461 24.2% | 11,190 2.2% | 2,185 0.4% | ||||||||||
| 2015 | 353,598 54.7% | 202,506 31.3% | 74,118 11.5% | 12,348 1.9% | 3,194 0.5% | ||||||||||
| 2019 | 365,357 55.2% | 184,256 27.8% | 75,023 11.3% | 24,561 3.7% | 8,548 1.3% | 3,947 0.6% | |||||||||
| 2021 | 321,685 55.7% | 156,198 27.0% | 70,993 12.3% | 4,997 0.9% | 22,169 3.8% | 942 0.2% |
See main article: 2019 Canadian federal election. |-| style="background-color:whitesmoke" |Don Valley East|||Yasmin Ratansi
25,295
59.81%||Michael Ma
10,115
23.92%||Nicholas Thompson
4,647
10.99%||Dan Turcotte
1,675
3.96%||John P. Hendry
562
1.33%|||||Yasmin Ratansi|-| style="background-color:whitesmoke" |Don Valley North|||Han Dong
23,495
50.45%||Sarah Fischer
16,506
35.44%||Bruce Griffin
4,285
9.20%||Daniel Giavedoni
1,803
3.87%||Jay Sobel
482
1.03%|||||Geng Tan†$|-| style="background-color:whitesmoke" |Etobicoke Centre|||Yvan Baker
32,800
51.88%||Ted Opitz
21,804
34.49%||Heather Vickers-Wong
4,881
7.72%||Cameron Semple
2,775
4.39%||Nicholas Serdiuk
664
1.05%||Mark Wrzesniewski (Libert.)
295
0.47%|||Borys Wrzesnewskyj†|-| style="background-color:whitesmoke" |Etobicoke—Lakeshore|||James Maloney
36,061
51.88%||Barry O'Brien
19,952
28.70%||Branko Gasperlin
8,277
11.91%||Chris Caldwell
4,141
5.96%||Jude Sulejmani
921
1.32%||Janice Murray (M-L)
163
0.23%|||James Maloney|-| style="background-color:whitesmoke" |Etobicoke North|||Kirsty Duncan
26,388
61.44%||Sarabjit Kaur
9,524
22.18%||Naiima Farah
4,654
10.84%||Nancy Ghuman
1,080
2.51%||Renata Ford
1,196
2.78%||Sudhir Mehta (CFF)
104
0.24%|||Kirsty Duncan|-| style="background-color:whitesmoke" |Humber River—Black Creek|||Judy Sgro
23,187
61.09%||Iftikhar Choudry
6,164
16.24%||Maria Augimeri
7,198
18.96%||Mike Schmitz
804
2.12%||Ania Krosinska
402
1.06%||Christine Nugent (M-L)
89
0.23%
Stenneth Smith (UPC)
114
0.30%|||Judy Sgro|-| style="background-color:whitesmoke" |Scarborough—Agincourt|||Jean Yip
21,115
50.50%||Sean Hu
15,492
37.05%||Larisa Julius
3,636
8.70%||Randi Ramdeen
1,050
2.51%||Anthony Internicola
521
1.25%|||||Jean Yip|-| style="background-color:whitesmoke" |Scarborough Centre|||Salma Zahid
25,695
55.19%||Irshad Chaudhry
10,387
22.31%||Faiz Kamal
5,452
11.71%||Dordana Hakimzadah
1,336
2.87%||Jeremiah Vijeyaratnam
1,162
2.50%||John Cannis (Ind.)
2,524
5.42%|||Salma Zahid|-| style="background-color:whitesmoke" |Scarborough-Guildwood|||John McKay
26,123
61.12%||Quintus Thuraisingham
9,553
22.35%||Michelle Spencer
4,806
11.24%||Tara McMahon
1,220
2.85%||Jigna Jani
648
1.52%||Stephen Abara (Ind.)
70
0.16%
Farhan Alvi (CFF)
55
0.13%
Kevin Clarke (Ind.)
112
0.26%
Kathleen Marie Holding (Ind.)
70
0.16%
Gus Stefanis (CNP)
85
0.20%|||John McKay|-| style="background-color:whitesmoke" |Scarborough North|||Shaun Chen
20,911
53.57%||David Kong
11,838
30.33%||Yan Chen
5,039
12.91%||Avery Velez
796
2.04%||Jude Guerrier
370
0.95%||Janet Robinson (UPC)
83
0.21%|||Shaun Chen|-| style="background-color:whitesmoke" |Scarborough—Rouge Park|||Gary Anandasangaree
31,360
62.19%||Bobby Singh
10,115
20.06%||Kingsley Kwok
5,801
11.50%||Jessica Hamilton
2,330
4.62%||Dilano Sally
467
0.93%||Mark Theodoru (CHP)
353
0.70%|||Gary Anandasangaree|-| style="background-color:whitesmoke" |Scarborough Southwest|||Bill Blair
28,965
57.20%||Kimberly Fawcett Smith
10,502
20.74%||Keith McCrady
7,865
15.53%||Amanda Cain
2,477
4.89%||Italo Erastostene
590
1.17%||Simon Luisi (Animal)
236
0.47%|||Bill Blair|-| style="background-color:whitesmoke" |Willowdale|||Ali Ehsassi
22,282
49.00%||Daniel Lee
16,452
36.18%||Leah Kalsi
4,231
9.31%||Sharolyn Vettese
1,671
3.67%||Richard Hillier
563
1.24%||Birinder Singh Ahluwalia (Ind.)
200
0.44%
Shodja Ziaian (Ind.)
71
0.16%|||Ali Ehsassi|-| style="background-color:whitesmoke" |York Centre|||Michael Levitt
21,680
50.20%||Rachel Willson
15,852
36.71%||Andrea Vásquez Jiménez
4,251
9.84%||Rebecca Wood
1,403
3.25%|||||||Michael Levitt|}
See main article: 2015 Canadian federal election.
See main article: 2011 Canadian federal election.
See main article: 2008 Canadian federal election.
See main article: 2006 Canadian federal election.
See main article: 2004 Canadian federal election.
| 2004 election results in the City of Toronto | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Party | Central | Suburban | Pickering— Scarborough East (part)* | Total | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes | % | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Liberal | 234,018 | 50.9 | 276,372 | 57.5 | 12,451 | 60.4 | 522,841 | 54.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| New Democratic Party | 125,218 | 27.3 | 64,146 | 13.3 | 2,424 | 11.8 | 191,788 | 20.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Conservative | 75,063 | 16.3 | 111,637 | 23.2 | 5,086 | 24.7 | 191,786 | 20.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 21,548 | 4.7 | 14,762 | 3.1 | 640 | 3.1 | 36,950 | 3.8 | align="right" | - | align="right" | - | 2,592 | 0.5 | align="right" | - | align="right" | - | 2,592 | 0.3 | Progressive Canadian | 531 | 0.1 | 1,931 | 0.4 | align="right" | - | align="right" | - | 2,462 | 0.3 | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| 1,578 | 0.3 | align="right" | - | align="right" | - | align="right" | - | align="right" | - | 1,578 | 0.2 | 480 | 0.1 | 469 | 0.1 | align="right" | - | align="right" | - | 949 | 0.1 | 506 | 0.1 | 436 | 0.1 | align="right" | - | align="right" | - | 942 | 0.1 | 366 | 0.1 | 200 | 0.0 | align="right" | - | align="right" | - | 566 | 0.1 | Independents | 169 | 0.0 | 8,348 | 1.7 | align="right" | - | align="right" | - | 8,517 | 0.9 |
| Total | 459,477 | 480,893 | 20,601 | 960,971 |
See main article: 2000 Canadian federal election.
See main article: 1997 Canadian federal election.
| Parties | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 0 | 7 | 4 | 1 | |
| 0 | 3 | 8 | 1 | |
| 0 | 2 | 0 | 10 |