This is arguably the most competitive region in Ontario and one of the most competitive in all of Canada, as all three major parties have significant strength. Traditionally a conservative-leaning area outside of Hamilton and Welland, the Conservatives won the majority of seats in the 1970s and 1980s, aside from 1974 when the Liberals did well, taking six of nine.Before that the Liberals had dominated the area in the 1960s and from 1940 to 1953 with the Conservatives dominating in the two late 1950s elections and in the 1920s and 1930s.
The entire area went for the Liberals in their sweeps of Ontario from 1993 to 2000, with the popularity of local left-leaning Liberal Sheila Copps and the prominence of her parents (Victor and Geraldine) at the municipal level in Hamilton being major factors.
Some of this changed in 2004, the year that happened to coincide with Sheila Copps' departure from federal politics. In Hamilton proper, the New Democratic Party managed to pick up one seat from the Liberals in 2004 and picked up two more in 2006 to sweep urban Hamilton. The Conservatives picked up two seats from the Liberals in 2004 and four more in 2006, leaving the Liberals with only Welland in 2006.
The 2008 and 2011 elections saw the Liberals shutout of the area as the NDP retained its stronghold in Hamilton and added Welland from the Liberals for four seats. The Conservatives claimed the other six ridings in the area each election from 2006 to 2011.
In the 2015 Liberal election victory, the Conservatives held the three most rural ridings plus Niagara Falls, while the NDP retained two of its Hamilton seats, the two fully within the city, but lost its Welland seat (realigned and renamed to Niagara Centre) to the Liberals who claimed the other five seats in the area.
In recent decades, the Liberals have support throughout the region, but no real stronghold of support, which means there are no real safe seats for the party in this area. Several ridings are competitive 3-way districts most elections, although Hamilton's four seats and Niagara Centre generally switch between the Liberals and NDP.
| Election | / | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1979 | 145,976 32.6% | 100,729 22.5% | 198,244 44.3% | 1,917 0.4% | |||||||||||
| 1980 | 158,449 36.7% | 110,720 25.6% | 160,192 37.1% | 1,163 0.3% | |||||||||||
| 1984 | 118,577 25.3% | 124,216 26.5% | 1,679 0.4% | 221,866 47.4% | 1,235 0.3% | ||||||||||
| 1988 | 167,838 35.7% | 107,028 22.8% | 273 0.1% | 176,752 37.6% | 16,611 3.5% | ||||||||||
| 1993 | 244,265 51.7% | 25,126 5.3% | 558 0.1% | 78,934 16.7% | 113,460 24.0% | 10,274 2.2% | |||||||||
| 1997 | 229,069 45.7% | 50,785 10.1% | 974 0.2% | 100,925 20.1% | 112,371 22.4% | 7,158 1.4% | |||||||||
| 2000 | 232,252 47.2% | 39,678 8.1% | 2,906 0.6% | 77,385 15.7% | 134,912 27.4% | 3,448 0.7% | |||||||||
| 2004 | 208,507 39.7% | 169,434 32.3% | 121,262 23.1% | 20,153 3.8% | 5,142 1.0% | ||||||||||
| 2006 | 204,069 34.7% | 211,512 36.0% | 144,199 24.5% | 24,144 4.1% | 3,703 0.6% | ||||||||||
| 2008 | 146,954 27.5% | 216,635 40.6% | 128,508 24.1% | 37,301 7.0% | 3,263 0.6% | ||||||||||
| 2011 | 107,300 19.1% | 262,850 46.9% | 166,045 29.6% | 18,684 3.3% | 4,255 0.8% | ||||||||||
| 2015 | 237,146 39.1% | 217,692 35.9% | 129,043 21.3% | 17,654 2.9% | 4,378 0.7% | ||||||||||
| 2019 | 252,374 38.8% | 206,438 31.8% | 134,511 20.7% | 39,282 6.0% | 9,537 1.5% | 7,648 1.2% | |||||||||
| 2021 | 238,257 37.8% | 207,916 33.0% | 129,147 20.5% | 13,848 2.2% | 39,278 6.2% | 1,062 0.2% |
See main article: 2015 Canadian federal election. Source:[1]
See main article: 2011 Canadian federal election. Source:[2]
See main article: 2008 Canadian federal election.
Source:[3]
See main article: 2006 Canadian federal election.
Continuing the trend started in 2004, the Liberal lost all but one seat in the region but managed to arrive second in all the remaining 9 seats. The Conservatives and NDP managed to win 6 and 3 seats respectively but the Conservatives failed to arrive second in the 4 seats they lost and the NDP only arrived second in one riding.
| Parties | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 0 | 4 | 0 | |
| 3 | 1 | 6 | 0 | |
| 1 | 9 | 0 | 0 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 10 |
Source:[4]
See main article: 2004 Canadian federal election.
| Parties | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| 2 | 4 | 4 | 0 | |
| 1 | 3 | 6 | 0 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 10 |
See main article: 2000 Canadian federal election.
The Liberals recorded their third consecutive clean sweep of the region. The Canadian Alliance was much more competitive than the Reform Party in 1997, arriving second in all 11 ridings. Both the Progressive Conservatives and the NDP achieved worse results than in 1997.
| Parties | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 0 | 11 | 0 | 0 | |
| 0 | 0 | 8 | 3 | |
| 0 | 0 | 3 | 8 |
See main article: 1997 Canadian federal election.
| Parties | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 0 | 5 | 5 | 1 | |
| 0 | 4 | 6 | 1 | |
| 0 | 2 | 0 | 9 |