COVID-19 pandemic in Scotland explained

COVID-19 pandemic in Scotland
Disease:COVID-19
Virus Strain:SARS-CoV-2
Location:Scotland
First Case:Tayside
Arrival Date:19 February 2020[1]
Origin:Northern Italy (local)[2]
Wuhan, Hubei, China (global)
Confirmed Cases:217,127[3] [4] [5] (up to 28 March 2021)

The COVID-19 pandemic in Scotland is part of the COVID-19 pandemic of coronavirus disease-2019, caused by the virus SARS-CoV-2. The first case of COVID-19 was confirmed in Scotland on 1 March 2020.[2] Community transmission was first reported on 11 March 2020, and the first confirmed death was on 13 March 2020.

COVID-19 became a notifiable disease in Scotland on 22 February 2020. The first cases were detected in Scotland in the following weeks. By 16 March and following the outbreak in Italy,[6] [7] and based on forecasting by epidemiologists at Imperial College London[8] —the Scottish Government advised the public to avoid all "non-essential" travel and contact with others, and to remote work if possible. Those with symptoms, and their household, were asked to self-isolate. Pregnant women, the over 70s, and those with certain illnesses were asked to self-isolate for longer.[6] On 20 March 2020, schools were told to close, along with pubs, cafes and cinemas. On 23 March 2020, a 'Stay at Home' order was announced; this would come to be referred to as the UK lockdown.[9]

COVID-19 policies in Scotland began to diverge with those elsewhere in the UK as the first lockdown was lifted starting in April 2020. The Scottish government pursued a zero-COVID strategy aiming to eliminate the virus entirely in 2020, lifted lockdown rules more gradually than the rest of the country, and expanded testing capacity.[10] Personal protective equipment supplies and guidance were major issues early in the outbreak. A four-tier restriction system that applied to different regions of Scotland came into force later in 2020, and a lockdown applying to the whole country applied from early 2021 as the Alpha variant spread from elsewhere in the UK. A vaccination programme began in December 2020. As many restrictions were lifted later in 2021, the Delta variant and Omicron variant have since posed further challenges and prompted responses in Scotland.

Scottish healthcare service capacity was substantially reorganised in response to the outbreak[11] and clinical studies into COVID-19 have also taken place in the country.

The pandemic has had major impact across Scottish society. Care homes and healthcare were directly affected by the spread of the disease. Beyond that, it has caused major disruptions to education, law enforcement, and economic activities.

Background

On 12 January, the World Health Organization (WHO) confirmed that a novel coronavirus was the cause of a respiratory illness in a cluster of people in Wuhan City, Hubei Province, China, who had initially come to the attention of the WHO on 31 December 2019.[12] On 11 March 2020, the outbreak was declared a pandemic.[13] [14] [15]

Unlike the SARS outbreak of 2003, the case fatality ratio for COVID-19 [16] [17] has been much lower, but the transmission has been significantly greater, with a significant total death toll.[18]

On 24 January, the first tests for COVID-19 came back negative, with the then Chief Medical Officer Dr. Catherine Calderwood saying that the risk was low for the Scottish public, although acknowledged that cases would arrive at some point.[19] The first case was detected on 1 March and by 23 March, the country went into lockdown.

Timeline

See also: Timeline of the COVID-19 pandemic in Scotland (2020) and Timeline of the COVID-19 pandemic in Scotland (2021).

January–March 2020

April to June 2020

July to September 2020

October to December 2020

January to June 2021

July 2021 to Present

Government response plan

See also: British government response to the COVID-19 pandemic.

The main coordinating bodies responsible for Scotland's COVID-19 response is the Scottish Government Resilience Division and the COVID Health Response Directorate of the Health and Social Care Directorates. On 25 March 2020, the Scottish Government set up an expert advisory group to help develop and improve its COVID-19 response plan.[132]

Dr Catherine Calderwood was Chief Medical Officer until her resignation from the post on 5 April 2020. Nicola Sturgeon accepted her resignation and replaced Calderwood on an acting basis with the Deputy Chief Medical Officer, Dr Gregor Smith. Jeane Freeman served as Health Secretary until she stepped down in May 2021. As of 26 May, the Key Scottish Government officials in Scotland leading the response to the outbreak are:

Nicola Sturgeon

Humza Yousaf

Maree Todd

Dr. Gregor Smith

Professor David Crossman

Professor Amanda Croft

Containment measures

Workplace hygiene advice was published on 9 March 2020 which included routine deep cleaning in regularly used touch points such as phones, card machines or door handles.[133] Later, the First Minister Nicola Sturgeon announced a ban on mass gatherings (500 or more) on 12 March, with the ban starting on 16 March.[134] A number of schools were closed due to reported symptoms, and underwent deep cleaning.[135] On 18 March, it was announced that schools in Scotland would be closed starting on 20 March.[136]

Unlike the rest of the UK, Scotland pursued a Zero-COVID strategy after the first nationwide lockdown was lifted.[137]

Public Health Scotland

On 1 April 2020, the Scottish Government launched the new Public Health Scotland (PHS) agency, as a result of a three-way merger between NHS Health Scotland and the Information Services Division (ISD) and Health Protection Scotland (HPS) sections of Public Health and Intelligence (PHI) (which was in itself a strategic business unit of NHS National Services Scotland (NSS)).[138] According to a 6 May 2020 report by the Press and Journal, PHS employs 1,100 staff and has a budget this year of £71 million, and it is jointly accountable to the Scottish Government and the Convention of Scottish Local Authorities (Cosla).[139]

'Scotland Cares' campaign

A new 'Scotland Cares' campaign was launched on 30 March 2020 to encourage people to volunteer during the COVID-19 pandemic. More than 21,000 people signed up on the first day. By 4 April, the number of registrations to volunteer stood at 50,330. Cabinet Secretary for Social Security and Older People Shirley-Anne Somerville said, "The response to the Scotland Cares campaign has been outstanding and I want to thank each and every person who has signed up to volunteer during the COVID-19 outbreak. Your support at this critical time is invaluable and will make a huge difference over the coming weeks and months."[140] [141] In addition, people who are healthy and not at risk can volunteer via the Ready Scotland website.[142]

Vulnerable groups

Those in vulnerable groups were able from 3 April 2020 to register for deliveries of food and medicine. This included around 120,000 people in Scotland who had been advised to shield[143] at home (12 weeks of self-isolation), those with suppressed or compromised immune systems, and those with underlying health conditions.The Scottish Government mailed out information about self-isolating if symptoms developed in a household member and about protective measures during the pandemic.[144]

Levels System

October 2020

From 23 October, the Scottish Government introduced a new 5-level System, similar to that in England. Levels ranged from 0 to 4 (inclusive). Social distancing measures applied in all levels, and some measures such as encouraging active transport, were present in all levels.

!2020 Levels (these no longer apply)!Level 0 NEARLY NORMAL[145] !Level 1 MEDIUM[146] !Level 2 HIGH[147] !Level 3 VERY HIGH[148] !Level 4 LOCKDOWN[149]
SocialisingIndoors 8 people from 3 households

Outdoors 15 people from 5 households

Indoors 6 people from 2 households

Outdoors 8 people from 3 households

No Socialising Indoors

Outdoors 6 people from 2 Households

No Socialising Indoors

Outdoors 6 people from 2 Households

No Socialising Indoors

Outdoors 6 people from 2 Households (Excluding Hospitality Settings)

HospitalityLicensing times applyLast Entry at 21:30 with closing time an hour later.Alcohol allowed with meal.

Indoors Last Entry at 19:00 with closing time an hour later.

Outdoors Last Entry at 21:30 with closing time an hour later.

Alcohol prohibited

Last Entry at 17:00 with closing time an hour later.

Closed
Travel and TransportNon-essential travel allowed (except travel to and from level 3 or 4 areas in Scotland, and to/from rest of UK.)

Non-essential travel on public transport permitted

Non-essential travel allowed (except travel to and from level 3 or 4 areas in Scotland, and to/from rest of UK.)

Non-essential travel on public transport permitted

Non-essential travel allowed (except travel to and from level 3 or 4 areas in Scotland, and to/from rest of UK.)

Non-essential travel on public transport permitted

Essential travel only to and from level 3 or 4 areas in Scotland, and to/from rest of UK.

No non-essential travel on public transport

Essential travel only to and from level 3 or 4 areas in Scotland, and to/from rest of UK.

No non-essential travel on public transport

Places of WorshipOpen. Max no: 50 peopleOpen. Max no: 50 peopleOpen. Max no: 50 peopleOpen. Max no: 50 peopleOpen. Max no: 20 people
Support ServicesOpenOpenOpen Open, but online where possibleOpen for essential support services, but online where possible
School and UniversityOpenOpenOpen with some measures.Open with enhanced measures.

Restricted blending in Universities.

Open with enhanced measures.

Restricted blending in Universities.

ShoppingOpenOpenOpenOpenNon-essential stores closed.

Click and Collect services allowed

Close Contact ServicesOpenSome measures applySome measures applySome measures applyClosed
Childcare and Children's activitiesOpen with standard measuresOpen with standard measuresOpen with more measuresOpen with enhanced measuresEarly learning and childcare open with targeted intervention to impact capacity.

Essential informal childcare only.

Only outdoor unregulated children's activities

Visitor Attractions, Leisure & Entertainment facilities and public buildingsOpen, excluding adult entertainment venues & nightclubsOpen, excluding adult entertainment venues & nightclubsVisitor attractions open with additional measures.

Cinemas, amusement arcades, bingo halls open.

Soft play, funfairs, indoor bowling, theatres, snooker/ pool halls, music venues, casinos, nightclubs and adult entertainment closed

Driving Lessons permitted

Visitor attractions open with additional measures.

All leisure & entertainment venues including cinemas, amusement arcades and bingo halls closed.

Driving Lessons permitted

Closed.

Driving Lessons prohibited.

Events and StadiaOutdoor events allowed

Indoor seated/ambulatory events (including theatres) allowed with restricted numbers

Stadium seated events allowed with restricted numbers

Indoor grouped standing events prohibited

Outdoor seated events, and open space events allowed.

Outdoor grouped events prohibited

Indoor seated events allowed with further restricted numbers

Stadium seated events allowed with further restricted numbers

Indoor grouped standing events prohibited

Events generally not allowed.

Stadia and theatres to close.

Drive in events allowed

Events prohibited.

Stadia closed

Events prohibited.

Stadia closed

Public ServicesOpenOpenReduced face to face public services.Reduced face to face public services.Essential face to face public services only.
SportsOpenOpen, except for over 18 indoor contact sportOpen, except for over 18 indoor contact sportIndoor individual exercise only (excluding under 18)

Outdoor sport allowed except over 18 contact sport.

Indoor sport venues closed.

Outdoor non-contact sports allowed

WorkOpen, but remote work advisedOpen, except for non-essential call centres.

Remote work advised

Open, except for non-essential call centres.

Remote work advised

Open, except for non-essential call centres.

Enhanced measures in place

Remote work advised

Remote work, excluding essential work, outdoor workplaces, manufacturing and construction
EventsMax of 50 people at Wedding/Civil Partnership Ceremonies

Max of 50 people at Funerals

Max of 50 people at post-funeral receptions/gatherings

No Wedding/Civil Partnership reception allowed.

Max of 20 people at Wedding/Civil Partnership Ceremonies

Max of 20 people at Funerals

Max of 20 people at post-funeral receptions/gatherings

No Wedding/Civil Partnership reception allowed.

Max of 20 people at Wedding/Civil Partnership Ceremonies

Max of 20 people at Funerals

Max of 20 people at post-funeral receptions/gatherings

No Wedding/Civil Partnership reception allowed.

Max of 20 people at Wedding/Civil Partnership Ceremonies

Max of 20 people at Funerals

Max of 20 people at post-funeral receptions/gatherings

No Wedding/Civil Partnership reception allowed.

Max of 20 people at Wedding/Civil Partnership Ceremonies

Max of 20 people at Funerals

Max of 20 people at post-funeral receptions

No Wedding/Civil Partnership or Funeral reception allowed.

AccommodationOpenOpenOpenOpen with some restrictions.

Work related use of accommodation allowed.

Local non-essential use of accommodation allowed and encouraged.

Essential only. No tourism allowed

February 2021

Revised Levels were published in February 2021.[150]

!2021 Levels!Level 0[151] !Level 1[152] !Level 2[153] !Level 3[154] !Level 4[155]
Summary8 people from 4 households can meet in a private dwelling6 people from 3 households can meet in a private dwelling6 people from 3 households can meet in a private dwelling6 people from 3 households can meet in a public indoor setting; restricted travel to/from a lower Level4 people from 2 households can meet in a private garden or a public outdoor setting, restricted travel to/from a lower Level

Testing and contact tracing

Testing capacity

See also: COVID-19 testing.

NHS Scotland's testing capacity for COVID-19 increased from around 750 a day in early March[156] to about 1,900 a day in early April.

By 15 March, COVID-19 testing was extended into Scotland's communities but there would be no routine testing of people with minor symptoms.[157]

NHS Scotland plans to reach a testing capacity of around 3,500 a day by the end of April.[158] [159]

Glasgow University is to launch a major COVID-19 testing facility in mid-April, staffed 24/7 by more than 500 volunteers including molecular scientists, technicians and bioinformaticians.

Aberdeen University has provided three machines to NHS Grampian to speed up COVID-19 testing.[160]

By 2 April 2020, around 3,500 tests have been conducted on NHS workers and family members in Scotland. It was also reported in that week that around 6pc of Scotland's frontline NHS staff are not currently working, either because they have COVID-19 symptoms or live with someone who has.[161] A COVID-19 testing facility for NHS staff was opened at Glasgow Airport car park on 5 April.[162]

Chief Medical Officer for Scotland Catherine Calderwood described mass testing as a distraction that will not slow down the spread of the virus. She said: "I have been saying and advising the First Minister and the Cabinet Secretary for several weeks now about the distraction that I think the focus on testing may become. The testing is extremely useful but it is only going to be positive within a short window of perhaps 48 to 72 hours while somebody has symptoms, because there needs to be an amount of virus in that person to be able for that to be detected. But the thought that the testing in some way slows the virus or is a part of our strategy to prevent transmission is a fallacy, I'm afraid. The testing gives us more information but the social distancing and all of these stringent measures are what we actually need to prevent spread and prevent serious illnesses and death."[163] [161]

Cam Donaldson, a health economist and Pro Vice Chancellor Research, Glasgow Caledonian University has written of his scepticism of a "mass testing" strategy.[164]

Derek Gatherer a leading Scottish virologist has warned plans to test, trace and isolate everyone infected with the COVID-19 after lockdown will not slow its spread.[165]

Experts who have advocated a mass or large scale testing approach include Harry Burns former Scotland Chief Medical Officer[166] and Allan Wilson President of the Institute of Biomedical Science[167]

Professor Hugh Pennington, a leading bacteriologist, said laboratory testing could have been easily scaled up ten-fold and criticised former chief medical officer Catherine Calderwood for dismissing testing as a 'distraction' that would not help to contain the virus. Pennington believed a failure to increase testing to adequate levels will prove to be an enormous embarrassment to the UK and Scottish governments. He said: "You test, so you can trace then take appropriate action, it's basic shoe leather epidemiology," adding he would not be surprised if the lack of testing had cost lives, particularly in care homes. "We know [care homes] are hotbeds of infection, vulnerable in annual flu outbreaks and that you have to look after them by stopping the virus getting in. Much of that comes back to testing, tracing and isolating."

Former Scottish health secretary Alex Neil agreed, "the countries that have done this since day one are those with the lowest death and infection rates and mass testing allows you to identify a second wave of infection if it appears."

Professor of Immunology Denis Kinane said Scotland would need to conduct at least 15,000 tests a day to get on top of the disease.

Research carried out by scientific online publication Our World In Data on COVID-19 test rates across EU member states ranked Scotland at 19 out of 25 countries that publish such data.[168]

As of 11 May 2020,[57] a total of 74,063 people in Scotland had been tested for COVID-19 in NHS labs. Of these, 13,627 tests were confirmed positive, 60,436 tests were confirmed negative and 1,862 patients who tested positive have died. A total of 101,122 COVID-19 tests had been carried out by NHS Scotland labs in hospitals, care homes or the community. In addition there were a total of 27,647 drive through and mobile tests carried out by Regional Testing Centres in Scotland.

In November two further 'mega labs' were announced as due to open early in 2021, one of which was to be at 'an unconfirmed site in Scotland'.[169] The Scottish 'mega lab' has been subject to delays and in January its construction was halted. The UK government was reported to be assessing "the long-term demand" for the laboratory.[170] Meanwhile, new regional COVID-19 laboratories were opened in Glasgow and Aberdeen during December 2020, but another planned for Edinburgh has not yet opened.[171]

Contact tracing system

Ciaran Jenkins of Channel 4 News contrasted the differing approaches on contact-tracing strategy between the Republic of Ireland and the health authorities in the UK including Scotland's.[172] [173]

Public health expert Prof Allyson Pollock has argued that a bespoke test-trace-isolate approach could work well in Scottish island communities.[174]

Public healthcare infrastructure

Primary care network

Health Secretary Jeane Freeman said in a statement in the Scottish Parliament a network of COVID-19 local assessment centres was to be set up across Scotland with 50 planned in the first wave.[175] [176] [177] [178] A network of "humanitarian assistance centres" is also to be set up, working with GPs and other local partners to arrange delivery of medicine, care services and grocery delivery.[179]

Hospital capacity

Scotland has an estimated 3,000 hospital beds expected to be available for COVID-19 patients in hospitals across Scotland.[180]

ICU capacity across Scotland has doubled to 360 beds since the emergency began, 250 of which will be for the exclusive use of COVID-19 patients, with that number expected to increase to more than 500 in the first week of April as preparations continue towards eventually quadrupling the number to more than 700 ICU beds.[180]

The NHS Louisa Jordan emergency COVID-19 hospital facility at the SEC Centre will initially have capacity for 300 patients, which could be expanded in the future to more than 1,000.[180]

Scottish hospitals plan to have around 1,000 ventilators by the summer for COVID-19 patients.[181]

By 1 April 2020, NHS clinical and technical staff have converted over 200 anaesthetic machines into ventilators to increase ICU bed availability to more than 500, tripling the usual capacity.[182]

By 24 March more than 3,000 retired Scottish nurses, doctors and other medical workers have volunteered to return to work as part of efforts to help the NHS cope. As well as using retired workers, all final year nursing and midwifery students will also be given paid work placements on wards during the final six months of their degree programmes.[183]

On 30 March, First Minister Nicola Sturgeon announced the suspension of several non-COVID-19 screens (such as diabetic eye screening) to help free up NHS staff and reduce the risk of virus exposure to patients. All elective and non-urgent surgeries had already been cancelled across Scotland to free up hospital beds.[184]

On 27 April 121 junior doctors have started their careers early to support NHS Greater Glasgow and Clyde Scotland's largest health board in its COVID-19 response. A new post, foundation intermediate year, was created to allow them to start earlier instead of August and they would be placed at Glasgow Royal Infirmary; Queen Elizabeth University Hospital; Royal Alexandra Hospital, Paisley; and Inverclyde Royal Hospital, Greenock.[185]

As of 11 May 2020,[57] 3,114 inpatients have been discharged from Scottish hospitals since 5 March 2020, who had been tested positive for COVID-19. 632 people are in delayed discharge in Scottish hospitals. This is 980 less than the baseline period (04/03 weekly return). A total of 6,227 staff (or around 3.8%) of the NHS Scotland workforce, are reporting as absent due to a range of COVID-19 related reasons.

Hospital-acquired infection

On the issue of hospital-acquired infections, Michael Griffin, president of the Royal College of Surgeons of Edinburgh warned COVID-19 may be spreading in hospitals at twice the rate of its transmission in communities.[186] He said "we have to make our hospital environment as safe as possible. In the general population, the rate of reproduction of COVID-19 is less than one but in hospitals it is estimated at something like two."

A&E departments

The number of people attending Accident and Emergency departments in Scotland has fallen by more than 55% compared with 2019. NHS Scotland statistics reveal 11,881 people attended A&E in the second week of April 2020, down from 26,674 patients in 2019 and 25,067 in 2018.[186]

NHS staffing levels

As of 2 April, more than 14% of NHS Scotland staff were off work, according to Scottish government data and about 41% of those absences (equating to 9,719 people) were related to COVID-19. NHS Scotland's total workforce is about 166,000 people.[187]

As of 11 May 2020,[57] a total of 6,227 staff (or around 3.8%) of the NHS Scotland workforce, are reporting as absent due to a range of COVID-19 related reasons.

Personal protective equipment

On 2 April, new guidance on appropriate personal protective equipment (PPE) for healthcare hospital, general practice, ambulance and social care workers responding to COVID-19 has been issued by officials.[188]

On 26 April 2020, in response to a Sunday Times story that claimed the Scottish government failed to accept offers from six Scottish firms offering to supply PPE, a spokeswoman for the Scottish government said it had received 1,600 offers of help from Scottish businesses and individuals to supply or manufacture PPE and that a dedicated team and mailbox had been set up to focus on offers from local and global suppliers. The spokeswoman added: "We understand that potential suppliers will desire prompt decisions but our priority focus is to quickly identify those offers that can supply the largest volumes at the correct quality specifications and timescales necessary to meet the requirements of frontline services".[189]

Health secretary Jeane Freeman announced that PPE would be available to social care providers through a national network of hubs from 27 April 2020.[168]

Also in April 2020 whistle-blowers in the NHS came forward to reveal that staff were being made to reuse dirty personal protective equipment (PPE) while at work. One nurse told STV, "[When we hear the government say supplies are fine] it's not frustrating, it's crushing. It is absolutely crushing. We feel we are being lied to."[190] Sturgeon told the Scottish Parliament in July, "At no point within this crisis has Scotland run out of any aspect of PPE. We have worked hard to make sure that supplies are there, we've worked hard overcoming challenges that we have faced along the way."[191]

A fundraising drive to buy PPE for frontline workers under the name of 'Masks for Scotland' was spearheaded by Dundee University Professor of vascular medicine Jill Belch.[192]

Clinical research

See also: COVID-19 drug repurposing research.

Organisations in Scotland involved in COVID-19 related clinical research studies[193] include the Chief Scientist Office's Rapid Research in COVID-19 programme (RARC-19 programme),[194] Health Science Scotland, NHS Research Scotland,[195] Glasgow University,[196] Dundee University,[197] [198] [199] and Edinburgh University.[200]

Chief medical officer Dr Gregor Smith said nearly 800 patients have so far taken part in at least 10 clinical studies to develop COVID-19 treatments, with another four being set up in hospitals, intensive care units and primary care facilities. One study is looking at whether existing HIV drugs including Lopinavir and Ritonavir could be used with results available in three months. Another study led by Dr Kenneth Baillie of Edinburgh University looks at the genetics of patients susceptible to severe illness by comparing patients' DNA with that of healthy people who show no or mild symptoms.

Dundee University is to lead a trial into brensocatib (formerly known as INS1007) a drug for lung inflammation (acute respiratory distress syndrome) to treat the worst symptoms of COVID-19 and prevent the need for ventilation. Up to 20% of COVID-19 patients develop lung inflammation which can require them to be ventilated. The inflammatory response to the virus causes lung damage that can lead to respiratory failure and death in severe cases. It is hoped the treatment will also lead to patients spending fewer days dependent on oxygen and shorter periods of time in hospital, reducing the burden on healthcare systems. Funding and drug supply for the (Superiority Trial of Protease Inhibition in COVID-19) trial is being provided by biopharmaceutical company Insmed Incorporated. The trial is to start in May and researchers plan to recruit 300 volunteers from 10 hospitals. The project is led by James Chalmers, professor of respiratory research at Dundee University and consultant respiratory physician at Ninewells Hospital, one of the trial sites. NHS Tayside research and development director Professor Jacob George is the study investigator.. Research led by Edinburgh University in collaboration with Imperial College London and University College London identified that COVID-19 vaccination did not lead to either an increase in miscarriages or reduction in live births.[201]

Impacts

Health

Care homes

The Guardian reported that extra supplies of personal protective equipment (PPE) would be delivered directly to more than 1,000 care homes in Scotland.

Before the pandemic the care sector usually sourced its own PPE, but as extreme pressure was put on supply chains concerns grew that PPE manufacturers did not have capacity to deliver to Scotland in adequate quantities.

The Scottish government announced on 17/18 April that the NHS National Services Scotland would prioritise the delivery of stock directly to care homes where the virus is known to be present, although stock would still be provided to local hubs which supply PPE to other social care workers.

During the early stages of the pandemic 1,300 elderly hospital patients were transferred into care homes without receiving a negative COVID-19 test result.[202] Many had been infected with the virus and ended up passing it on to other care home residents.[203] Over three thousand care home residents died from COVID-19 and Gary Smith, Scotland Secretary of the GMB, said the policy had turned "care homes into morgues".[204] When asked by the BBC if the policy had been a mistake, Sturgeon said: "Looking back on that now, with the knowledge we have now and with the benefit of hindsight, yes."[205]

Two of the worst suspected outbreaks in care homes occurred at Elderslie care home in Paisley, Renfrewshire and at Berelands House Care in Prestwick, Ayrshire.[206]

Thirteen residents at the Glasgow-based Burlington Care Home died in one week following a suspected outbreak of COVID-19. The Care Inspectorate has been made aware of the deaths and are in contact with the care service, as well as the local health and social care partnership.[207]

As of 10 May 2020,[57] 474 (44% of all) adult care homes had a current suspected COVID-19 case. This is a care home where at least one care home resident has exhibited symptoms during the last 14 days. 609 (or 56% of all) adult care homes in Scotland had reported at least one notification for suspected COVID-19 to the Care Inspectorate. 434 of these care homes have reported more than one case of suspected COVID-19. There have been 4,503 cumulative cases of suspected COVID-19 in care homes. This is an increase of 58 suspected cases on the previous day.3,672 staff were reported as absent in adult care homes due to COVID-19, based on returns received from 822 (76%) adult care homes as of 5 May. This represents 8.5% of all adult care home staff (43,403) for whom a return was provided.

Effect of Lockdown on NHS services

An assessment of the immediate impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on motor neuron disease services and mortality in Scotland has shown that there has been no early increase in mortality but that there is a need for vigilance as key services were shown to be impacted upon.[208]

Medicolegal impact of COVID-19 on healthcare professionals

The COVID-19 pandemic has shone a spotlight on pre-existing issues in the legal framework in the UK that surround healthcare professionals and patients, encouraging action to be taken now.[209] During the COVID-19 pandemic, many doctors and other healthcare professionals have worked in unfamiliar surroundings and been assigned to new clinical areas, while balancing an unprecedented workload and addressing an overall lack of knowledge about the virus itself. This has led to concerns that there may be an increase in complaints about treatment provided in these circumstances, and competing arguments on how these should be handled within the criminal, civil and regulatory system.[210]

Education

As of 19 March 2020, the Robert Gordon University, Edinburgh Napier University, the University of Dundee, the University of Glasgow, University of the West of Scotland, Glasgow Caledonian University, the University of Aberdeen, Edinburgh University, Heriot-Watt University, University of Stirling and University of Strathclyde had cancelled or suspended face-to-face classes. Scottish political parties (Green, Conservatives, SNP) also cancelled their spring conferences.

Events

In early March, with Rangers vs Leverkusen being the last game played in Scotland on 12 March, football matches in the Scottish Professional Football League were cancelled until further notice, alongside a Six Nations game between Wales and Scotland. Radio 1's Big Weekend, which was due to take place in Dundee in May 2020 was cancelled in response to the outbreak.[211]

On 7 May, The Royal National Mòd Inverness, scheduled for October was postponed to 2021. The next three Mods were also to the subsequent year.[212]

Police, court and prison systems

Scottish Police Federation (SPF) said new PPE for officers would not provide any "meaningful protection", after Police Scotland announced staff would be given surgical face masks to wear when adhering to social distancing measures was not possible. But the SPF said that its new expert pandemic response panel refused to endorse the type two masks.[213]

From 27 March to 24 April 2020, police officers have made 78 arrests and issued 1,637 fixed penalty notices in Scotland related to lockdown violations.[214]

On 2 April 2020, BBC Scotland said it found almost a quarter of Scottish Prison Service staff are absent from work amid the COVID-19 outbreak. The SPS said 110 prisoners over 11 sites were self-isolating. At that time, two had tested positive for COVID-19.[215]

The first recorded COVID-19-related death of a Scottish prison officer was announced on 22 April. SPS spokesman Tom Fox confirmed where appropriate all prison officers are provided with PPE. It is not believed that the officer caught the virus while at work.

As of 23 April 2020, 94 people in custody across nine sites were self-isolating, 12 people had tested positive and staff absences were at 19.7% of the workforce.

The Scottish Courts and Tribunal Service consolidated its work into 10 hub sheriff courts with as much work as possible done remotely.

It is estimated 300 to 450 prisoners will be released in phases starting at the end of April, and around 1,600 trials could be delayed if lockdown restrictions continue into the summer.

Deputy chief constable Will Kerr said the number of people in police custody has been significantly down during the pandemic and said changes during the lockdown such as virtual courts and digital evidence have helped minimise contact and time spent in custody and could be retained once the pandemic is over.

Economy

GDP

The Scottish Government's Chief Economist Gary Gillespie said Scotland's GDP could fall by as much as 33% from the lockdown crisis.

Social Security

During March and early April 2020, there were around 110,000 Universal Credit claims in Scotland, up from an average of 20,000 a month in 2019.

Citizens Advice Scotland provides help to those who experience difficulties navigating the complex welfare system.

Transport Industry

Glasgow Taxi Owners' Association urged taxi drivers to be careful during the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, after hearing reports of drivers falling ill.[216] Chief Nursing Officer Fiona McQueen said good hand hygiene is vital along with physical distancing and wearing face coverings when in enclosed spaces such as shops and public transport.[217] [218]

Retail Industry

Retail sales in Scotland for March 2020 declined 13% in comparison to March 2019 Scottish Retail Consortium-KPMG Scottish Retail Monitor. Pre-lockdown the monitor recorded a 9% growth in the first three weeks of March but this was followed by a 44% decline in the last two weeks of that period. Total food sales were up 12.1% against the previous year while total non-food sales were down 33.6%. Adjusted for the estimated effect of online sales, total non-food sales decreased by 27.9%.[219]

Construction Industry

Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS) said its headline statistic for workloads in Scotland fell into negative territory for the first time in four years, dropping by 4% in the first three months of 2020. Its quarterly survey of members found confidence fell sharply when the lockdown measures were introduced.

In Scotland, work was ordered to be suspended on all non-essential construction projects from 6 April.[220] By 17 April 79% of all housebuilding schemes had been suspended (according to a Glenigan survey of projects with a construction value of more than £250,000).[221]

Statistics

Total cases and deaths

Total number of laboratory confirmed cases and deaths recorded 28 days after a positive lab test result.

New cases

Number of people who have had a lab-confirmed positive test result.

New cases per week

>

New cases per day

2020
>
2021
>

Number of deaths

Number of people who die within 28 days of a positive lab test result.

New deaths per day

2020
>
2021
>

See also

References

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  39. Beyond these 3 types of establishments, also told to close were:
    • Nightclubs and other drinking establishments
    • Cinemas, theatres and bingo halls and concert halls
    • Spas, wellness centres and massage parlours
    • Casinos and betting shops
    • Indoor leisure facilities such as gyms and swimming pools
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  51. Deaths in Scotland with COVID-19 mentioned as a cause:
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    • 537 in care homes (33%)
    • 168 in homes and other settings (10%)
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