2017 Bulgarian parliamentary election explained

Country:Bulgaria
Previous Election:2014
Next Election:April 2021
Election Date:26 March 2017
Seats For Election:All 240 seats in the National Assembly
Majority Seats:121
Turnout:52.57%
Leader1:Boyko Borisov
Party1:GERB
Last Election1:84
Seats1:95
Percentage1:32.65
Party2:BSP for Bulgaria
Leader2:Korneliya Ninova
Last Election2:39
Seats2:80
Percentage2:27.19
Party3:United Patriots
Leader3:Krasimir Karakachanov
Last Election3:30
Seats3:27
Percentage3:9.07
Party4:Movement for Rights and Freedoms
Leader4:Mustafa Karadayi
Last Election4:38
Seats4:26
Percentage4:8.99
Party5:Volya Movement
Leader5:Veselin Mareshki
Last Election5:New
Seats5:12
Percentage5:4.15
Prime Minister
Before Election:Ognyan Gerdzhikov
Before Image:Ognyan Gerdzhikov.jpg
Before Party:National Movement for Stability and Progress
After Election:Boyko Borisov
After Image:Boyko Borissov 2017-11-03.jpg
After Party:GERB

Parliamentary elections were held in Bulgaria on 26 March 2017. They had originally been scheduled for 2018 at the end of the four-year term of the National Assembly. However, following the resignation of Prime Minister Boyko Borisov and the failure of Bulgarian parties to form a government, early elections were called.[1] Borisov resigned following the defeat of Tsetska Tsacheva, the candidate of his GERB party, in the November 2016 presidential elections.[2] [3] The official election campaign began on 24 February.[4]

GERB won a plurality, with 95 of the 240 seats. Borisov was elected Prime Minister again after negotiating a governing coalition.[5]

Background

During the 2016 presidential election campaign, Borisov promised to resign if his party's candidate, Chairperson of the National Assembly Tsetska Tsacheva, lost the election.

On 6 November 2016 Tsacheva finished second in the first round to BSP-backed Major General Rumen Radev, receiving only 22% of the popular vote compared to Radev's 25.4%.[6] Following the result, Borisov reiterated his promise to resign if his party's candidate lost the runoff election a week later. On November 13, 2016, she finished a distant second with only 36.2% of the popular vote compared to Radev's 59.4%.[7]

Borisov, staying true to his campaign promise, subsequently resigned on 14 November.[8] Two days later, the National Assembly voted 218–0 to accept it.[9]

Electoral system

The 240 members of the National Assembly are elected by closed list proportional representation from 31 multi-member constituencies ranging in size from 4 to 16 seats. The electoral threshold is 4%.[10]

Bulgarians abroad were able to vote in 371 voting sections in 70 foreign countries and territories. Some territories were excluded from this provision due to either security concerns (e.g. Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya and Syria) or that very few resident Bulgarian nationals resident in the country had submitted requests to be enabled to vote (e.g. Ethiopia, Indonesia, Mongolia, North Korea and Pakistan).[11]

Participating parties

The deadline for political parties to register for the election was 8 February 2017.[12] Despite holding 15 seats in the Assembly, Reload Bulgaria chose not to compete in the election after being initially refused a name change, among other reasons.[13] The list of registered parties is below.[14]

Party or coalitionLeaderIdeologyEuropean affiliation
GERBBoyko BorisovConservatism, pro-Europeanism, populismEuropean People's Party
BSP for BulgariaBulgarian Socialist PartyKorneliya NinovaSocialism, Social democracyParty of European Socialists
Agrarian Union "Aleksandar Stamboliyski"Spas PanchevAgrarianism
Communist Party of BulgariaAleksandar PaunovMarxism–Leninism
New DawnMincho MinchevLeft-wing nationalism
EcoglasnostGreen politics, Environmentalism
Trakia
DPSMustafa KaradayaLiberal democracy, Bulgarian Turk's minority rights and interestsAlliance of Liberals and Democrats for Europe
United PatriotsNational Front for the Salvation of BulgariaValeri SimeonovBulgarian ultranationalism, national conservatism, EuroscepticismMovement for a Europe of Liberties and Democracy
AttackVolen SiderovBulgarian nationalism, EuroscepticismIdentity, Tradition, Sovereignty
IMRO – Bulgarian National MovementKrasimir KarakachanovBulgarian ultranationalism, national conservatismEuropean Conservatives and Reformists
Average European ClassGeorgi ManevEconomic liberalism, Pro-Europeanism, populism
Union of the Patriotic Forces "Defense"Nikolay ZaharievBulgarian nationalism
Reformist BlocBulgarian Agrarian National UnionNikolay NenchevAgrarianism
Bulgarian new democracyBorislav VelikovLiberalism
Bulgaria for Citizens MovementMeglena KunevaCentrism
Union of Democratic ForcesBozhidar LukarskiChristian democracy, pro-Europeanism, conservatismEuropean People's Party
People's VoiceSvetoslav VitkovPopulism
Bulgarian Democratic ForumZhaklin TolevaNationalism
VolyaVeselin MareshkiPopulism, Russophilia, Liberal democracy
ABV – Movement 21Alternative for Bulgarian RevivalKonstantin ProdanovSocial democracy, Russophilia
Movement 21Tatyana DonchevaSocial democracy
Movement "Yes, Bulgaria"Yes, Bulgaria!Hristo IvanovAnti-Corruption
The GreensZaritsa Georgieva, Vladislav PanevGreen politics, EnvironmentalismEuropean Green Party
DEOSViktor LilovLiberalism
Coalition of dissatisfiedBulgarian Social Democracy – EuroLeftDimitar MitevSocial democracy
Christian Social UnionChristian democracy
Party of the GreensVladimir NikolovGreen politics, EnvironmentalismEuropean Green Party
WHO – Bulgarian Left and Green PartyBulgarian LeftHristofor Dochev, Margarita Mileva, Ivan GenovDemocratic socialismParty of the European Left
WHO – Competence, Responsibility and Truth
Green Party of BulgariaGreen politics, EnvironmentalismEuropean Green Party
New RepublicDemocrats for a Strong BulgariaRadan KanevNational liberalism, pro-EuropeanismEuropean People's Party
Union for Plovdiv
Bulgarian democratic communityGospodin Tonev
Bulgarian democratic centerKrasimira Kovachka, Stefan KenovConservatism
Movement for Radical Change "Bulgarian Spring"Velizar EnchevLeft-wing nationalism
Bulgarian National UnificationGeorgi GeorgievBulgarian nationalism
RevivalKostadin KostadinovBulgarian nationalism
National Republican PartyMladen Mladenov
Movement for an Equal Public ModelIliya IlievRights and interests of Gypsies
Movement Forward BulgariaZornitsa Todorova
Association DOSTDemocrats for Responsibility, Solidarity and Tolerance (DOST)Lyutvi MestanTurkish minority rights and interests, Good relations with Turkey
People's Party "Freedom and Dignity"Orhan IsmailovLiberalism
National Movement for Rights and FreedomsGuner TahirTurkish minority rights and interests

Opinion polls

Percentages do not account for undecided voters. 'Date' column signifies the last date of the survey in question, not the date of publication.

SourceDateSample sizeMargin of errorGERBBSPDPSOPRBVolyaYes!ABVOthers / NoneLead
2014 election5 October 201432.7%15.4%14.8%11.8%8.9%4.2%12.2%
Trend17 January 20171,002± 3.1%32.2%29.3%7.8%10.4%3.7%5.9%0.7%1.0%9.0%2.9%
Alpha Research22 January 20171,024± 3.0%32.6%28.8%7.8%10.7%3.8%4.4%2.3%1.4%8.2%3.8%
Estat22 January 20171,000± 3.1%36.1%27.5%6.0%7.0%2.4%8.4%0.9%1.9%9.8%8.6%
Gallup30 January 2017816± 3.5%27.6%28.7%8.2%11.9%4.3%7.7%2.0%1.9%7.7%1.1%
CAM7 February 20171,012± 3.1%29.2%28.1%9.6%7.5%3.7%5.2%1.5%0.9%14.3%1.1%
Trend9 February 20171,002± 3.1%29.7%28.7%9.0%9.9%3.4%6.5%2.3%2.0%8.5%1.0%
Sova Haris20 February 20171,003± 3.0%31.3%31.6%6.4%10.3%6.3%7.2%0.5%3.0%3.4%0.3%
Alpha Research23 February 20171,024± 3.0%31.5%29.6%6.8%10.8%3.9%5.7%2.6%2.9%6.2%1.9%
AFIS27 February 20171,200± 3.0%28.2%30.5%6.7%8.5%4.5%5.1%1.3%3.3%12.0%2.3%
Estat28 February 20171,000± 3.1%29.5%30.2%6.4%8.6%3.9%11.8%2.3%1.5%5.8%0.7%
Gallup5 March 20171,003± 3.1%28.3%30.2%8.2%11.9%4.3%7.4%2.3%2.6%4.8%1.9%
Institute of Modern Politics6 March 2017827± 3.1%29.1%29.0%7.3%9.5%3.5%5.8%1.7%4.1%10.0%0.1%
Gallup15 March 20171,012± 3.0%29.9%30.3%8.1%11.5%4.4%6.5%2.3%2.4%3.6%0.4%
Estat15 March 20171,000± 3.1%29.7%27.2%8.3%8.6%6.1%10.5%1.3%2.6%5.7%2.5%
AFIS16 March 20171,010± 3.0%31.2%31.5%8.5%9.9%4.4%5.3%1.1%4.1%4.1%0.3%
Trend16 March 20171,004± 3.1%29.8%27.9%8.7%10.2%3.8%7.3%2.1%2.6%7.6%1.9%
CAM16 March 20171,012± 3.1%29.6%29.0%10.8%10.0%3.5%6.2%1.9%1.5%7.5%0.6%
Mediana20 March 20171,010± 3.0%26.6%27.7%11.1%10.2%5.1%9.6%1.1%4.0%4.6%1.1%
Institute of Modern Politics20 March 2017805± 3.1%28.5%29.0%9.1%10.1%4.0%9.6%2.0%4.5%3.2%0.5%
Gallup21 March 20171,012± 3.0%27.1%26.5%9.7%12.3%3.8%8.2%2.4%2.6%7.4%0.6%
Alpha Research22 March 20171,033± 3.0%31.7%29.1%8.4%8.9%4.0%6.8%2.5%2.9%5.7%2.6%
Exacta22 March 20171,000± 3.0%31.2%28.1%7.6%10.5%4.0%6.5%1.5%2.6%8.0%3.1%

Combined result of the Patriotic Front and Attack.

Results

Five parties crossed the 4% threshold required to gain seats. GERB maintained their position as the largest party.

Voter demographics

Gallup exit polling suggested the following demographic breakdown.

Voter demographics[15]
Social group% GERB% BSP% OP% DPS% Volya% RB% Yes!% DOST% Others% Lead
Exit poll result3328109433375
Final result32.727.29.19.04.23.12.92.885.5
Gender
Men3125109543396
Women333088434283
Age
18–30321471155841318
30-6034231096542711
60+2644963112818
Highest Level of Education
Lower education2128626220962
Secondary education3426108542298
Higher education3228834670114
Ethnic Group
Bulgarian3430111545194
Turkish14805320119334
Roma2821223170995
Location
Towns and villages282682132010102
Smaller cities2932118542453
Larger cities3527936540118
Sofia332371381201310
How they vote in second round of 2016 presidential election
Rumen Radev - 53,4%948111043221137
Tsetska Tsacheva - 30,5%752434422471
No one/didn't vote - 16,1%2551311871051612

Aftermath and government formation

Boyko Borisov appeared set to resume his tenure as Prime Minister, possibly with a coalition with the United Patriots,[16] and ultimately formed the Third Borisov Government with the United Patriots.

Notes and References

  1. http://www.balkaninsight.com/en/article/bulgaria-heads-to-early-elections-12-20-2016 Bulgaria Heads for Early Elections
  2. http://www.novinite.com/articles/177398/Bulgaria+Sliding+Toward+Caretaker+Govt%2C+But+with+Same+Parliament Bulgaria Sliding Toward Caretaker Govt, But with Same Parliament
  3. http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-bulgaria-election-government-idUKKBN1390WC Bulgarian PM Borisov resigns, snap parliamentary polls likely
  4. Web site: Election Campaign Starts in Bulgaria. Novinite JSC. novinite.com. 24 February 2017. 24 February 2017.
  5. News: Hope. Kerin. Troev. Theodor. Former PM Borisov claims victory in Bulgarian election. 28 March 2017. Financial Times. 27 March 2017.
  6. Web site: Резултати за президент и вицепрезидент на републиката-I Тур. cik.bg. Central Electoral Commission. 30 January 2017.
  7. Web site: Резултати за президент и вицепрезидент на републиката-II Тур. cik.bg. Central Electoral Commission. 30 January 2017.
  8. http://in.reuters.com/article/bulgaria-election-government-idINL8N1DF29T Bulgarian PM Borisov tenders his government resignation
  9. Web site: Bulgarian MPs Accept PM Borisov's Resignation. Novinite.com. Sofia News Agency. 17 November 2016. 16 November 2016.
  10. http://www.electionguide.org/elections/id/2800/ Bulgaria
  11. https://www.cik.bg/bg/decisions/4400/2017-03-04 Central Electoral Commission – Decision #4400 – March 4, 2017
  12. Web site: Bulgaria's Early Election: Parties' Registration Deadline Expires. Sofia News Agency. novinite.com. 8 February 2017. 8 February 2017.
  13. Web site: Reload Bulgaria Party Not to Participate in March 26 Elections . 21 February 2017 . bta.bg . 28 March 2017.
  14. Web site: Централна избирателна комисия.
  15. Web site: Парламентарни избори 2017 – подробни демографски профили и някои наблюдения. Parliamentary Elections 2017 – Detailed Demographic Profiles and Some Observations. bg-BG. 27 March 2017. 31 January 2023.
  16. Web site: Georgiev . Ognyan . Bulgaria's Borisov is Back — But Coalition May be Shaky . 27 March 2017 . . 27 March 2017.