2022 missile explosion in Poland explained

On 15 November 2022, a missile struck Polish territory, in the village of Przewodów near the border with Ukraine, killing two people.[1] [2] [3] The incident occurred during attacks on Ukrainian civilian infrastructure by Russia.[4] [5] It was the first incident of a foreign missile (as opposed to prior UAV incursion) hitting NATO territory during the Russian invasion of Ukraine.[6] [7] Initially Ukraine accused Russia of striking Poland, while United States claimed that the missile was likely to have been an air defence missile fired by Ukrainian forces at an incoming Russian missile.[8] [9] [10] This was later confirmed in September 2023 by the Polish Prosecutor's Office, which stated that the explosion was caused by an out of control air-defence S-300 missile.[11]

Background

The explosion happened on a day when the Russian military extensively bombarded infrastructure all over Ukraine, the largest-scale attack so far. According to the Ukrainian Air Force Command, the Russian military launched 96 pieces of various types of weapons at Ukraine on 15 November.[12] These included air and sea cruise missiles (Kh-555 and Kh-101, and Kalibr), Kh-59 guided missiles, Geran-1 and -2 attack drones, and Orlan-10 and Orion UAVs.[12] According to Forbes, one Kalibr alone costs $6.5 million, and the Kh-101 missile costs $13 million.[12] The Economic Pravda or Epravda (Ukrainian: Економічна правда) calculated that Russia had spent between half a billion and a billion U.S. dollars worth of weaponry in the 15 November 2022 attack on Ukraine.[12]

Explosion

Polish media reported that two people (Bogusław Wos and Bogdan Ciupek)[13] [14] [15] [16] were killed in an explosion[17] [18] at a grain dryer. Polish officials stated that the cause of the explosion was unknown. Polish radio station Radio ZET reported that two stray rockets fell on the village, causing the explosion, although later reports indicated that there was only one missile.[19] NATO members started to review the evidence soon after the explosion was reported.[20] [21]

Investigation

After the meeting of the Polish National Security Bureau on 15 November, the government spokesman said: "The services will work all night to sort things out".

Conflicting reports emerged regarding the origin and nature of the explosion(s) shortly after the incident. Poland's Ministry of Foreign Affairs stated that the projectile was "Russian-produced".[22] Andrés Gannon, a security expert at the think tank Council on Foreign Relations, speculated that the missiles could be from S-300 systems.[23] S-300s were used by both combatants during the invasion both as surface-to-air and surface-to-surface missiles, primarily by Ukraine and Russia respectively.[24] [25] [26] Mariusz Gierszewski, a Polish reporter for Radio ZET, reported sources claiming the missile was the remains of a downed rocket.[27] U.S. president Joe Biden, speaking from the G20 summit in Bali, said that it was "unlikely" that the missile was fired from Russia.[28]

According to US intelligence officials, initial assessments suggest that the missile was probably launched by Ukrainian forces at an incoming Russian missile.[9] [10]

On 17 November, Head of the Polish International Policy Bureau Jakub Kumoch gave a similar explanation that an air defence missile failed to shoot down the Russian target it sought to intercept; then "[t]he self-destruct system did not work, and this missile led to a tragedy."

Also on 17 November, Polish officials stated that Ukrainian investigators were likely to be granted access to the site of the explosion.[29]

On 21 November, it was reported that Ukraine will not be granted access to the investigation by the Polish prosecutor's office.[30]

On 26 September 2023, Rzeczpospolita reported that Ukrainian state did not cooperate in the investigation and did not provide any useful material to Poland. Polish Prosecutor's Office stated that the air-defence missile S-300 5-W-55, fired by the Ukrainian army, went out of control and hit Polish territory.[31]

Reactions

Poland

After the explosion, Prime Minister of Poland Mateusz Morawiecki called an urgent meeting of a committee for national security and defence affairs.[32] [33] A government spokesperson said that Poland was raising the alert level of some of its military units after the conclusion of the meeting. He also stated that Polish President Andrzej Duda spoke to Secretary General of NATO Jens Stoltenberg regarding the possibility of activating Article 4 of the NATO charter.[34]

Polish foreign minister Zbigniew Rau reportedly summoned the Russian ambassador and demanded "immediate detailed explanations".[35]

Polish president Andrzej Duda stated late on 15 November 2022 local time that there was no evidence of who fired the missile.[36]

International

Russia

The Russian defence ministry denied reports that Russian missiles had hit Poland, labeling it as "deliberate provocation aimed at escalating the situation".[37]

The next day, it said that Russian strikes on Ukraine had been at least away from the border with Poland, and that photos of the site published in Poland had been "identified by Russian defence industry specialists as elements of an anti-aircraft guided missile of the S-300 air defence system of the Ukrainian air force".[38] [39] Later that day, the Russian foreign ministry summoned the Polish ambassador.[40]

Ukraine

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy blamed Russia for the incident in his nightly video address that day, saying that "Russian missiles hit Poland" and describing it as an infringement upon "collective security" and as a "significant escalation".[41] Around the same time, foreign minister Dmytro Kuleba labeled the suggestion of the missile being fired by Ukrainian air defense as a "conspiracy theory" promoted by Russia.[42] [43]

The next day, Ukraine's presidential adviser Mykhailo Podolyak had tweeted that European countries should "close the sky" over Ukraine after the blast.[44] Oleksiy Danilov, the secretary of the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine, claimed that Ukraine had evidence of a "Russian trace" in the explosion, without giving any details.[45] Zelenskyy also said that he had "no doubt that it was not our missile" and that Ukraine should be given access to the site of the explosion.[46]

On 17 November, Zelenskyy said: "I don’t know what happened. We don’t know for sure. The world does not know. But I am sure that there was a Russian missile, I am sure that we fired from air defense systems".[47]

NATO officials and member countries

Due to this incident, compounded with the closure of the Druzhba pipeline, the Hungarian government led by Prime Minister Viktor Orbán also called an emergency meeting with its Defence Council on the same night,[48] and Defense Minister Kristóf Szalay-Bobrovniczky had a telephone conversation with NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg.[49]

Shortly after the alleged strike, the United States Department of Defense acknowledged reports that two Russian missiles struck a location inside Poland near its Ukrainian border, though it could not confirm them.[50] Bob Menendez, Senate Foreign Relations Chair, expressed the hope that Russia would "apologize quickly for the loss of life and express that it wasn’t intentional", and warned of "all sorts of consequences", including the possibility of invoking Article 5, if the strike was intentional.[51]

Poland requested a NATO meeting on Wednesday, 16 November, on the basis of Article 4. NATO diplomats said that the alliance would act cautiously and needed time to verify exactly how the incident happened.[52]

Estonian Minister of Foreign Affairs Urmas Reinsalu responded to the reports by tweeting that Estonia was ready to defend "every inch" of NATO territory.[53] Belgian Prime Minister Alexander De Croo responded to the reports by saying "We stand with Poland."[54] Czech Prime Minister Petr Fiala tweeted that if the strikes were confirmed to be an intentional act, "it would "be a further escalation by Russia."[55] Romanian President Klaus Iohannis tweeted that Romania stands "in full solidarity with our friend and ally Poland" and that "we are in contact with our partners and allies".[56]

Stoltenberg stated that Russia bears the blame, although the missile was most likely a Ukrainian air defense system or missile. After all "this would not have happened if Russia did not fire these missiles," he stated.[57] [58] [59]

Others

Related incidents

On 5 December 2022, as Russia launched a wave of targeted missile strikes against Ukraine, a missile fell within the territory of Moldova, near the city of Briceni. Russian military expert Alexei Leonkov claimed that this and the incident at Przewodów were similar and that the missile in both cases originated from a S-300 missile system.[63] A third missile fell into the Moldovan village of Larga on 14 January 2023[64] [65] and a fourth missile fell in the same village on 16 February 2023.[66] On 25 September, a missile crashed into Chițcani, for the first time in Moldovan territory controlled by Transnistria.[67] On 11 February 2024, fragments of a Russian drone were found in the Moldovan village of Etulia.[68] This happened again on 17 February in Etulia Nouă[69] and on 4 April again in Etulia.[70]

In April 2023, the wreck of a Russian missile, likely a Kh-55 missile launched over Belarus on 16 December 2022, was discovered in forests near Bydgoszcz in Poland, after having crossed around 500km of Polish territory.[71] [72] [73] [74]

On 29 December 2023, during that day's bombardment of Ukraine by Russia, a Russian missile travelled through Polish airspace for about 40km before turning back towards Ukraine.[75]

At 04:23 CET on 24 March 2024, a Russian missile spent 39 seconds passing through Polish airspace, travelling about one to two km in Poland before entering Ukrainian airspace.[76]

Notes and References

  1. News: 2022-11-15. Explosion kills two in Poland near Ukraine border, with US claiming Russia may not be responsible. en-AU. ABC News. 2022-11-15.
  2. News: 2022-11-15. Wybuch w miejscowości Przewodów. Nie żyją dwie osoby. Explosion in Przewodów. Two people are dead. pl-PL. Radio Lublin. 2022-11-15.
  3. Web site: Polish PM convenes 'urgent' meeting of defense committee. 2022-11-15. The Jerusalem Post. 15 November 2022 . en-US.
  4. Web site: Peleschuk. Dan. Landay. Jonathan. 2022-11-15. Russia rains missiles across Ukraine as signs emerge of further retreat. 2022-11-15. Reuters. en.
  5. Web site: Leicester. John. 2022-11-15. US official: Russian missiles crossed into Poland, killing 2. 2022-11-15. AP News. en.
  6. News: Barnes. Joe. 2022-11-15. Russian missiles hit Poland killing two. en-GB. The Telegraph. 2022-11-15. 0307-1235.
  7. Web site: 2022-11-15. Russian missiles cross into Poland during strike on Ukraine. 2022-11-15. POLITICO. en.
  8. Web site: Miller. Zeke. 2022-11-16. Poland: Russian-made missile fell on our country, killing 2. live. https://web.archive.org/web/20221116054122/https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-war-zelenskyy-kherson-9202c032cf3a5c22761ee71b52ff9d52?. 2022-11-16. 2022-11-16. Associated Press. en.
  9. Web site: US officials: Initial findings suggest missile that hit Poland was fired by Ukrainian forces at incoming Russian missile. ABC News. 16 November 2022. en.
  10. Web site: Poland blast caused by missile fired by Ukrainian forces at incoming Russian missile – AP. Reuters. 16 November 2022.
  11. News: Polish experts confirm missile that hit grain facility was Ukrainian - media . Reuters. 26 September 2023 .
  12. News: Szokująca skala ataku Rosjan. Mógł kosztować nawet miliard dolarów. The shocking scale of the Russian attack. It could cost up to a billion dollars. Wprost. 16 November 2022. 17 November 2022. pl.
  13. Web site: Polish men killed by missile strike near Ukrainian border identified. 16 November 2022.
  14. Web site: Victims of stray Poland missile were family men, loyal workers and 'good people'. Daily Mirror. 17 November 2022.
  15. Web site: Raketeneinschlag in Polen: Die beiden Opfer "Bogdan 1 und 2" halfen ukrainischen Flüchtlingen. www.bild.de. 17 November 2022 . Rocket impact in Poland: The two victims "Bogdan 1 and 2" helped Ukrainian refugees.
  16. Web site: Luto y terror en el pueblo polaco donde cayó el misil: "Medio minuto después y estarían vivos". Mourning and terror in the Polish town where the missile fell: "Half a minute later and they would be alive". www.elmundo.es. 18 November 2022.
  17. Web site: Harrison. Charles. 2022-11-15. At least two dead after Russian missiles land in NATO state Poland. 2022-11-15. Express.co.uk. en.
  18. Web site: Poland calls 'urgent' defense meeting after Russian missiles kill 2. 2022-11-15. The Jerusalem Post. Tzvi. Joffre. Reuters. 15 November 2022. en-US.
  19. Web site: Borowski. Rafał. 2022-11-18. Wiceszef MSWiA o rzekomym wybuchu dwóch rakiet w Przewodowie. "To wszystko zostało negatywnie zweryfikowane". Deputy head of the Ministry of Interior and Administration on the alleged detonation of two rockets in Przewodów. "It has all been negatively verified". 2022-11-20. Wprost. pl. There weren't two blasts or two rockets. [Nie było dwóch wybuchów czy dwóch rakiet].
  20. Web site: Představitelé států NATO už jednají – Novinky. Representatives of NATO countries are already negotiating – News. 2022-11-15. www.novinky.cz. cs.
  21. Web site: Tim. Lister. Tara. John. Antonia. Mortensen. Anna. Chernova. Emmet. Lyons. Rhea. Mogul. 2022-11-15. World leaders hold emergency meeting as 'Russian-made' missile kills two in Poland. 2022-12-03. CNN. en.
  22. Web site: 2022-11-16. Poland confirms Russian-made missile hit country. live. https://web.archive.org/web/20221116022128/https://www.1news.co.nz/2022/11/16/poland-confirms-russian-made-missile-hit-country/. 2022-11-16. 2022-11-16. 1 News. en-NZ.
  23. Web site: 2022-11-15. Security experts for the BBC: It is unclear who fired the missiles at Poland. 2022-11-16. Vox News.
  24. News: Khurshudyan. Isabelle. 2022-10-20. Ukraine improvises with aging air defenses to counter Russian missiles. 2022-11-16. The Washington Post. en-US.
  25. Web site: Malsin. Jared. Ukrainian Forces Move to Surround Russian Troops in Key City as Putin Lays Claim to Regions. Wall Street Journal. 1 October 2022. 30 September 2022.
  26. Web site: Cheetham. Josh. Partridge. Chris. Spencer. Thomas. Horton. Jake. Palumbo. Daniele. War in Ukraine: Is Russia's stock of weapons running low?. BBC News. 16 October 2022. 14 October 2022.
  27. 1592595507427545088. MariuszGierszew. Moje źródła w służbach twierdzą, że to co uderzyło w Przewodowo to najprawdopodobniej szczątki rakiety zestrzelonej przez Siły Zbrojne Ukrainy.. My sources in the services say that what hit Przewodowo is most likely the remains of a missile shot down by the Ukrainian Armed Forces.. Mariusz Gierszewski. 2022-11-15. 2022-11-15.
  28. Web site: Bose. Nandita. 2022-11-15. Poland blast may not be from Russian missile, Biden says. 2022-11-15. Reuters.
  29. Web site: Ukraine likely to get access to missile blast site -Polish officials. Reuters. 17 November 2022.
  30. News: Incydent w Przewodowie: Prokuratura nie zgodzi się na udział Ukraińców w śledztwie. Incident in Przewodów: The prosecutor's office will not agree to the participation of Ukrainians in the investigation. 21 November 2022. Rzeczpospolita.
  31. Web site: Coraz bliżej prawdy o rakiecie w Przewodowie. Wiadomo czyj był pocisk . . pl.
  32. News: 2022-11-15. Polish premier calls urgent meeting of national security committee. en. Reuters. 2022-11-15.
  33. Web site: Piotr Müller on Twitter: Premier @MorawieckiM zwołał w trybie pilnym Komitet Rady Ministrów do spraw Bezpieczeństwa Narodowego i spraw Obronnych.. Prime Minister @MorawieckiM urgently convened the Committee of the Council of Ministers for National Security and Defense Affairs. 2022-11-15. Twitter. pl.
  34. Web site: Podwyższenie gotowości bojowej jednostek wojskowych na terenie RP. Increasing the combat readiness of military units in the Republic of Poland. www.rp.pl.
  35. Web site: cnbc.com. Poland says a Russian-made missile fell inside their country, killing 2. 15 November 2022.
  36. Web site: 2022-11-15. No concrete evidence on who fired missile, Poland's Duda says. live. https://web.archive.org/web/20221116022520/https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/no-concrete-evidence-who-fired-missile-polands-duda-says-2022-11-16/. 2022-11-16. 2022-11-15. Reuters.
  37. Web site: Russia's defence ministry denies Russian missiles struck Polish territory. Reuters. 15 November 2022.
  38. Web site: Russia says missile strike in Poland caused by Ukrainian air defence. Reuters. 16 November 2022.
  39. Web site: 2022-11-16. Russian Defence Ministry report on the progress of the special military operation in Ukraine. 2022-11-16. Ministry of Defence of the Russian Federation. en.
  40. Web site: Poland, NATO say missile strike wasn't a Russian attack. Associated Press. 16 November 2022.
  41. News: Kochubey. Bogdan. 2022-11-15. Ukraine's Zelenskiy blames Russian missiles for deadly Poland explosion. en. Reuters. 2022-11-15.
  42. Web site: Ukraine war: Poland missile strike reveals Nato divisions. BBC News. 16 November 2022.
  43. Web site: NATO holds crisis talks after missile hits Poland. Politico. 15 November 2022.
  44. News: Russia to blame for 'incidents with missiles' – Ukrainian official. 17 November 2022. Reuters. 16 November 2022.
  45. Web site: Ukraine alleges 'Russian trace' in Poland blast. Reuters. 16 November 2022.
  46. Web site: Zelenskiy has 'no doubt' Ukrainian missile did not cause blast in Poland. Reuters. 16 November 2022.
  47. News: Zelensky Still Has Doubts About Missile that Hit Poland. Kyiv Post. 17 November 2022.
  48. Web site: 2022-11-15. Orbán Viktor összehívta ma estére a Védelmi Tanács ülését. Viktor Orbán called a meeting of the Defense Council for tonight. 2022-11-15. Origo. hu.
  49. Web site: Orbán Viktor összehívta ma estére a Védelmi Tanács ülését. Viktor Orbán called a meeting of the Defense Council for tonight. 2022-11-15. Portfolio.hu. 15 November 2022 . hu.
  50. News: 2022-11-15. Pentagon says can't confirm Russian missiles struck inside Poland. en. Reuters. 2022-11-15.
  51. Web site: Menendez warns of 'consequences' if Russia behind deadly strike on Poland – POLITICO. 2022-11-15. www.politico.com. 15 November 2022 .
  52. News: 2022-11-15. NATO to meet on Wednesday at request of Poland for consultations – diplomats. 2022-11-15. Reuters.
  53. Web site: 2022-11-15. MFA: Estonia stands in solidarity with Poland, NATO allies consulting. 2022-11-15. ERR. en.
  54. News: 2022-11-15. Belgian PM: We stand with Poland, NATO more united than ever. en. Reuters. 2022-11-15.
  55. Web site: 2022-11-15. Czech Prime Minister: Confirmation of missiles hitting Poland would be 'further escalation' by Russia. 2022-11-15. The Kyiv Independent.
  56. News: Klaus Iohannis: "România este pe deplin solidară cu prietenul și aliatul nostru Polonia". Klaus Iohannis: "Romania is fully in solidarity with our friend and ally Poland". Teodor. Bobei. Libertatea. 15 November 2022. ro.
  57. Web site: Ukraine war latest: Ukraine air defence likely caused Poland explosion – Nato chief. 2022-11-16. BBC News. 16 November 2022 . en-gb.
  58. Web site: 2022-11-16. Russia-Ukraine war live: missile strike that killed two in Poland likely an accident from Ukrainian air defence, says Warsaw. 2022-11-16. the Guardian. en.
  59. Web site: Gadzo. Edna Mohamed,Mersiha. Missile was 'very likely' from Ukraine air defence, says Poland. 2022-11-16. www.aljazeera.com. en.
  60. Web site: EU chief 'shocked' by reports of deaths as Poland hit by 'missile or munition'. 2022-11-15. The Times of Israel. AFP. 15 November 2022. en-US.
  61. News: Ministerul de Externe al R. Moldova își exprimă solidaritatea cu Polonia, după explozia unui proiectil care a luat viața a doi oameni. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Moldova expresses its solidarity with Poland, after the explosion of a projectile that took the lives of two people. Ziarul de Gardă. 16 November 2022. ro.
  62. News: O rachetă rusească a căzut pe teritoriul R. Moldova. Mai multe case din Naslavcea, avariate. A Russian missile fell on the territory of the Republic of Moldova. Several houses in Naslavcea, damaged. Radio Europa Liberă Moldova. 31 October 2022. ro.
  63. News: MAI, cu noi detalii despre despre racheta căzută la Briceni: "La moment nu există niciun risc pentru cetățeni". Unimedia. 5 December 2022. ro.
  64. News: Tanas. Alexander. Holmes. David. Popeski. Ron. Oatis. Jonathan. Moldova says missile debris found in north of the country. reuters.com. 14 January 2023 . Reuters. 15 January 2023.
  65. Web site: Rocket debris found again in Moldova, from war next door. apnews.com. 14 January 2023 . Associated Press. 15 January 2023.
  66. News: Resturile unei rachete lansate de Rusia au căzut în Republica Moldova, la 10 kilometri de granița cu România. Digi24. 16 February 2023. ro.
  67. News: O rachetă S-300, de producție sovietică, a explodat deasupra Transnistriei. Focosul proiectilului a căzut în gospodăria unui localnic - detalii exclusive. Oxana. Bodnar. HotNews. 25 September 2023. ro.
  68. News: Fragmente de dronă, depistate la Vulcănești: Accesul în regiune, restricționat. Știri.md. 11 February 2024. ro.
  69. News: Noi fragmente de dronă au fost găsite în Republica Moldova, în apropiere de granița cu Ucraina. Liviu. Cojan. Digi24. 17 February 2024. ro.
  70. News: Moldova strongly condemns second Russian drone wreckage discovery near Ukraine. Yuri. Zoria. Euromaidan Press. 5 April 2024.
  71. Web site: 2023-05-10 . Media: Russian Kh-55 missile likely fell in Bydgoszcz, Poland . 2023-05-13 . Kyiv Independent . en.
  72. News: 2023-05-10 . Military object found in Polish forest was Russian missile – media . en . Reuters . 2023-05-13.
  73. Web site: Russian missile wreckage found near Bydgoszcz shows it 'could have flown 300–500 km across Poland' . 2023-05-13 . Yahoo News . 10 May 2023 . en-US.
  74. News: 2023-12-29 . Poland says Russian missile entered airspace then went into Ukraine . en-GB . 2024-01-01.
  75. News: 2023-12-29 . Poland says Russian missile entered airspace then went into Ukraine . en-GB . 2023-12-29.
  76. Web site: Gera . Vanessa . Hicks . Tony . Poland demands explanation from Russia after a missile enters its airspace during attack on Ukraine . AP News . . 24 March 2024 . https://web.archive.org/web/20240324180145/https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-missile-airspace-violation-c9d2511f169e9f80a08082726c118114 . 24 March 2024 . Warsaw, Poland & Kyiv, Ukraine . . 24 March 2024 . live.

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