Blue wall (United States) explained

The "blue wall" is a term coined in 2009 in the political culture of the United States to refer to the several states (along with Washington, D.C.) that reliably "voted blue" i.e. for the Democratic Party in the six consecutive presidential elections from 1992 to 2012. Conversely, the terms "red wall" and "red sea" are less-commonly used to refer to states that Republicans consistently won in the same timeframe; states which have not voted consistently for one party are called “purple” or swing states.

During the 2016 presidential election, the Democratic candidate, Hillary Clinton, was a heavy favorite to win the electoral college,[1] [2] but Republican nominee Donald Trump challenged the status of the "blue wall" Rust Belt states of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, which became swing states in the next three elections. The Trump victories in 2016 and 2024 included flipping these three states (the 2020 Biden victory won all three states with lower than three percent margins, and Biden was the first Democrat since the 1990s to win the states of Arizona and Georgia).[3] [4] [5]

The Southern United States had previously voted Democratic so reliably that it had been termed the "Solid South" until Republicans implemented the Southern strategy.

Origin

Ronald Brownstein claims to have coined the term "blue wall" in 2009.[6] After the 2012 presidential election, Paul Steinhauser called "blue wall ... the cluster of eastern, Midwest and western states that have traditionally gone Democratic."[7] The earliest description of the forces creating the blue wall comes from a Houston Chronicle blogger, Chris Ladd. A Republican, Ladd wrote in November 2014 that the seemingly impressive Republican win in the 2014 midterm elections had overshadowed another trend apparent in the results – a demographic and geographic collapse.[8]

The blue wall referred to a perceived Democratic demographic lock on the Electoral College resulting from the Republican Party's narrowing focus on the interests of white, rural, and Southern voters. According to Ladd, the presence of the blue wall means "a minimally effective Democratic candidate" is all but assured of winning 257 electoral votes, just 13 short of the threshold needed to win the Electoral College and the presidency.[8] Ladd's analysis became popular when MSNBC commentator Lawrence O'Donnell featured it on a post-election episode of his show The Last Word with Lawrence O'Donnell.[9] George W. Bush defeated Al Gore in 2000 and John Kerry in 2004 because they could only pick up Iowa and New Mexico (12 votes) in 2000 and New Hampshire (4 votes) in 2004 in addition to the blue wall. A similar "red fortress", within which lie states solidly Republican, has also been posited to exist.[8] But, having fewer electoral college votes, it would be theoretically easier for a Democratic presidential candidate to win without breaching it, as had been done in 2012.

States behind the blue wall

Behind this "blue wall" lay states, many carrying a double-digit number of electoral votes, which appeared to be solidly behind the Democratic Party, at least on the national level. Republican presidential candidates could only contest a small selection of these states, as only a few swing states would have sufficient votes to make up the 270 threshold. States behind this wall lay generally in the Northeastern United States, the West Coast of the United States, and some of the Great Lakes states. In each of the six presidential election cycles prior to 2016, the Democratic Party had won 18 of these states (as well as the District of Columbia), totaling 238 of the necessary 270 votes need to win. The "big three" Democratic stronghold states include California, New York, and Illinois.

States falling behind this blue wall generally included those the Democrats had carried since the 1992 presidential election until the 2016 presidential election[7] [10] that included (in order of decreasing population and followed by current number of electoral votes): California (54), New York (28), Illinois (19), Pennsylvania (19), Michigan (15), New Jersey (14), Washington (12), Massachusetts (11), Maryland (10), Minnesota (10), Wisconsin (10), Oregon (8), Connecticut (7), Hawaii (4), Maine (4), Rhode Island (4), Delaware (3), and Vermont (3), as well as Washington, D.C. (3); this is a total of 238 votes. Had Al Gore won New Hampshire (4) in 2000 or if John Kerry had won New Mexico (5) or Iowa (7) in 2004, those states could also have become part of the blue wall states since 1992; New Mexico and New Hampshire would further support the Democratic nominee in 2016, 2020, and 2024, while Iowa would not.

Ronald Reagan's landslide re-election in 1984 carried all states except for Minnesota, which last voted Republican with Richard Nixon in 1972; and the District of Columbia, which has voted for the Democratic candidate in every election since it was admitted to the electoral college for the 1964 election. As such, the blue wall began to materialize with the 1988 United States presidential election; states that voted solely for Democratic Presidents since 1988 were New York, Washington, Massachusetts, Wisconsin, Oregon, Hawaii, and Rhode Island. The remainder of the blue wall was built in the 1992 United States presidential election: California, Illinois, Pennsylvania, Michigan, New Jersey, Maryland, Connecticut, Maine, Delaware, and Vermont.

2016: First breach of the blue wall

The Democrats' "lock" on these states had been called into question between 2012 and 2016, as several had been competitive in recent elections, and many had Republicans currently holding elected statewide office, generally either senator or governor.[11] Blue wall states with a Republican senator included Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Maine. Those with a Republican governor included Massachusetts, Maryland, and Michigan. In addition to these 18 states, three others, Iowa, New Hampshire, and New Mexico, had only voted for the Republican once in the same six election cycles, giving their votes to George W. Bush in either 2000 or 2004 by a margin of no more than 10,059 votes. If included in the total, the votes behind the blue wall numbered 257, just 13 short of what is needed to win. Some in the mainstream media did, however, suspect the Democrats might lose Pennsylvania.

Nate Silver had criticized the idea of the blue wall, pointing to a similar "red wall/red sea" of states that voted Republican from 1968 to 1988. He argued that the blue wall simply represented a "pretty good run" in elections, and that relatively minor gains in the popular vote could flip some of its states to Republican.[12] This was seen in the 2016 election, where voters from manufacturing states traditionally behind the blue wall voted for Donald Trump, providing him the victory in Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Maine's 2nd congressional district.[13] Others have also posited that the states of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin had never definitively been "safe" for the Democratic Party, citing the close margins in those states in the 2000 and 2004 presidential elections and opining that the outsized margins of victory secured by Barack Obama in the elections of 2008 and 2012 may have created a false impression of their safety for Democratic candidates.

2020: Resurgence of the blue wall

During the 2020 United States presidential election, Democratic nominee Joe Biden won the states of Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. However, Biden carried these states only by 0.5–3 point margins, a considerable underperformance compared to Obama's margins in these states in 2008 and 2012. Long-term trends seem less favorable to Democrats in these states as they all voted to the right of the national average and many working-class white voters there have been moving towards the Republicans.[14] [15]

Biden also broke into the red wall/sea by winning Arizona, Georgia, and the 2nd congressional district of Nebraska.[16] [17] [18] However, Maine's 2nd congressional district voted for Donald Trump. Pundits saw former battleground states such as Colorado and Virginia becoming solidly Democratic-leaning after the 2020 election, partially as a result of demographic patterns. Biden won both of these states by more than 10% in 2020.

2024: Second breach of the blue wall

During the 2024 United States presidential election, Republican candidate Donald Trump was able to regain the White House, largely due to the reclaiming of the battleground states of Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan (as well as Maine's 2nd congressional district).[19] [20] He would also win the popular vote for the first time due to a significant collapse of Democratic turnout.[21] Part of his victory in Michigan was attributed to the large population of Arab and Muslim voters who did not vote for the Democrats over their continued involvement in the deaths in Gaza and Lebanon; Harris saw a drop-off of more than fifty thousand votes compared to Biden's performance in 2020.[22] [23] [24] [25] [26] The attempted assassination of Donald Trump in Pennsylvania invigorated turnout upwards of 150 thousand votes in that state,[27] and as such Wisconsin was hence the most Democratic of the trio, where both candidates made gains. Trump's margin of victory in those states was less than two percent, very close to the national margin, but the victories added 44 electoral votes to his total.[28] In general, the improved Republican turnout coinciding with a severe drop in Democratic turnout presented a nationally weak performance for the Democratic ticket, where over 90% of counties nationwide swung towards the Republican party. Most of the turnout drop was in Democrat stronghold states, partially due to the perception of being "safely Democratic", resulting in performances such as New Jersey being in striking range of 5%, and San Francisco, California voting more than 15% for Donald Trump in the 2024 election, the highest share for a Republican presidential candidate in San Francisco in 20 years.[29]

Red sea

The states which Republican candidates have won in the twelve federal elections from 1980 to 2024 are: Texas (40), Alabama (9), South Carolina (9), Oklahoma (7), Mississippi (6), Utah (6), Kansas (6), Nebraska (4) (excluding Nebraska's 2nd congressional district), Idaho (4), South Dakota (3), North Dakota (3), Alaska (3), and Wyoming (3), giving a total of 103 votes. Additionally, Tennessee (11), Missouri (10), Kentucky (8), Louisiana (8), Arkansas (6), West Virginia (4), and Montana (4) have been won by Republicans in the last seven elections (from 2000 to 2024), making more recent additions to the red wall/sea, bringing the total electoral votes up to 154. Other states with a 11-out-of-12 (from 1980 to 2024) Republican record include North Carolina (16) and Indiana (11), whose 27 electoral votes added to the 154 of the preceding twenty red sea states make for a total of 181 electoral votes, although North Carolina is usually a swing state that leans slightly towards Republicans, enough to prevent Democrats from winning it except for Obama when he narrowly won the state in 2008. Former red wall/sea states include Georgia and Arizona, which had been won by the Republicans in nine of the eleven elections from 1984 to 2024, but now considered swing states.

In presidential elections

Presidential votes in blue wall states since 1876:

Year California Connecticut Delaware District of Columbia Hawaii Illinois Maine Maryland Massachusetts Michigan Minnesota New Jersey New York Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island Vermont Washington Wisconsin
Hayes <--District of Columbia-->No election <--Hawaii-->No election Hayes Hayes Hayes Hayes Hayes Hayes Hayes Hayes Hayes <--Washington-->No election Hayes
Garfield Garfield Garfield Garfield Garfield Garfield Garfield Garfield Garfield Garfield Garfield Garfield
Cleveland Cleveland Cleveland Cleveland Cleveland Blaine
Harrison Harrison Harrison Harrison Harrison Harrison Harrison Harrison Harrison Harrison Harrison Harrison
Cleveland Cleveland Cleveland Cleveland Cleveland Cleveland Cleveland Cleveland
McKinley McKinley McKinley McKinley McKinley McKinley McKinley McKinley McKinley McKinley McKinley McKinley McKinley McKinley McKinley McKinley
McKinley McKinley McKinley McKinley McKinley McKinley McKinley McKinley McKinley McKinley McKinley McKinley McKinley McKinley McKinley McKinley McKinley
Roosevelt Roosevelt Roosevelt Roosevelt Roosevelt Roosevelt Roosevelt Roosevelt Roosevelt Roosevelt Roosevelt Roosevelt Roosevelt Roosevelt Roosevelt Roosevelt
Taft Taft Taft Taft Taft Taft Taft Taft Taft Taft Taft Taft Taft Taft Taft Taft
Wilson Wilson Wilson Wilson Wilson Wilson Wilson Wilson Wilson Wilson Wilson
Wilson Wilson Wilson Hughes
Harding Harding Harding Harding Harding Harding Harding Harding Harding Harding Harding Harding Harding Harding Harding Harding Harding
Coolidge Coolidge Coolidge Coolidge Coolidge Coolidge Coolidge Coolidge Coolidge Coolidge Coolidge Coolidge Coolidge Coolidge Coolidge Coolidge La Follette
Hoover Hoover Hoover Hoover Hoover Hoover Hoover Hoover Hoover Hoover Hoover Hoover Hoover Hoover Hoover
Roosevelt Roosevelt Roosevelt Roosevelt Roosevelt Roosevelt Roosevelt Roosevelt Roosevelt Roosevelt Roosevelt Roosevelt
Roosevelt Roosevelt Roosevelt Roosevelt Roosevelt Roosevelt Roosevelt Roosevelt Roosevelt Roosevelt Roosevelt Roosevelt Roosevelt Roosevelt Roosevelt
Roosevelt Roosevelt Roosevelt Roosevelt Roosevelt Roosevelt Roosevelt Roosevelt Roosevelt Roosevelt Roosevelt Roosevelt Roosevelt Roosevelt
Roosevelt Roosevelt Roosevelt Roosevelt Roosevelt Roosevelt Roosevelt Roosevelt Roosevelt Roosevelt Roosevelt Roosevelt Roosevelt Roosevelt Dewey
Truman Truman Truman Truman Truman Truman Truman
Eisenhower Eisenhower Eisenhower Eisenhower Eisenhower Eisenhower Eisenhower Eisenhower Eisenhower Eisenhower Eisenhower Eisenhower Eisenhower Eisenhower Eisenhower Eisenhower Eisenhower
Eisenhower Eisenhower Eisenhower Eisenhower Eisenhower Eisenhower Eisenhower Eisenhower Eisenhower Eisenhower Eisenhower Eisenhower Eisenhower Eisenhower Eisenhower Eisenhower Eisenhower
Kennedy Kennedy Kennedy Kennedy Kennedy Kennedy Kennedy Kennedy Kennedy Kennedy Kennedy Kennedy Nixon
Johnson Johnson Johnson Johnson Johnson Johnson Johnson Johnson Johnson Johnson Johnson Johnson Johnson Johnson Johnson Johnson Johnson Johnson Johnson
Nixon Nixon Nixon Nixon Nixon Nixon Nixon
Nixon Nixon Nixon Nixon Nixon Nixon Nixon Nixon Nixon Nixon Nixon Nixon Nixon Nixon Nixon Nixon Nixon
Carter Carter Carter Carter Carter Carter Carter Carter Carter Carter
Reagan Reagan Reagan Reagan Reagan Reagan Reagan Reagan Reagan Reagan Reagan Reagan Reagan Reagan
Reagan Reagan Reagan Reagan Reagan Reagan Reagan Reagan Reagan Reagan Reagan Reagan Reagan Reagan Reagan Reagan Reagan
Bush Bush Bush Bush Bush Bush Bush Bush Bush Bush Dukakis
Clinton Clinton Clinton Clinton Clinton Clinton Clinton Clinton Clinton Clinton Clinton Clinton Clinton Clinton Clinton Clinton Clinton Clinton Clinton
Clinton Clinton Clinton Clinton Clinton Clinton Clinton Clinton Clinton Clinton Clinton Clinton Clinton Clinton Clinton Clinton Clinton Clinton Clinton
Gore
Kerry
Obama Obama Obama Obama Obama Obama Obama Obama Obama Obama Obama Obama Obama Obama Obama Obama Obama Obama Obama
Obama Obama Obama Obama Obama Obama Obama Obama Obama Obama Obama Obama Obama Obama Obama Obama Obama Obama Obama
Trump Trump Trump
Biden Biden Biden Biden Biden Biden Biden Biden Biden Biden Biden Biden Biden Biden Biden Biden Biden Biden Biden
Trump Trump Trump
Year California Connecticut Delaware District of Columbia Hawaii Illinois Maine Maryland Massachusetts Michigan Minnesota New Jersey New York Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island Vermont Washington Wisconsin
Key
Democratic Party nominee
Republican Party nominee
Third-party nominee

Bold denotes candidates elected as president

See also

External links

Notes and References

  1. Web site: Hillary Clinton's path to victory . Goldmacher . Shane . Karni . Annie . Politico . February 17, 2019 . June 19, 2016 . https://web.archive.org/web/20160619120144/https://www.politico.com/story/2016/06/hillary-clinton-path-victory-224228 . live .
  2. Web site: Analysis: 'Blue Wall' Gives Trump Little Room for Error . Seitz-Wald . Alex . May 6, 2016 . NBC News . February 17, 2019 . May 6, 2016 . https://web.archive.org/web/20160506184220/https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2016-election/analysis-blue-wall-gives-donald-trump-little-room-error-n569136 . live .
  3. News: 'It's Such a Relief': Biden Voters Rebuild a Wall That Trump Smashed . November 8, 2020 . Goldmacher . Shane . Corasaniti . Nick . Gabriel . Trip . November 8, 2020 . The New York Times . May 5, 2022 . https://web.archive.org/web/20220505033651/https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/08/us/politics/joe-biden-voters.html . live .
  4. Web site: US election results: How did Donald Trump break the ‘blue wall’ – again?. Sarah. Shamim. November 7, 2024. Al Jazeera.
  5. Web site: Trump holds electoral vote in northern Maine. November 4, 2020. Politico. November 9, 2020. November 9, 2020. https://web.archive.org/web/20201109021834/https://www.politico.com/news/2020/11/04/congressional-maine-nebraska-presidential-results-2020-433380. live.
  6. Web site: Is Donald Trump Outflanking Hillary Clinton?. Brownstein. Ronald. 2 November 2016. The Atlantic. 5 March 2017. 3 November 2016. https://web.archive.org/web/20161103053536/https://www.theatlantic.com/amp/article/506306/. live.
  7. Web site: Holding Democratic 'blue wall' was crucial for Obama victory - CNNPolitics.com. Paul. Steinhauser. CNN. 12 November 2012. 9 May 2017. 31 October 2020. https://web.archive.org/web/20201031184142/https://www.cnn.com/2012/11/12/politics/blue-wall-democrats-election/index.html. live.
  8. Web site: Chris. Ladd. The Missing Story of the 2014 Election. Houston Chronicle. January 14, 2017. November 8, 2020. https://web.archive.org/web/20201108140522/https://blog.chron.com/goplifer/2014/11/the-missing-story-of-the-2014-election/. dead.
  9. Web site: 'The Last Word with Lawrence O'Donnell' for Monday, November 17th, 2014 . News . NBC . 2014-11-17 . 2020-09-24 . https://web.archive.org/web/20200924003529/http://www.nbcnews.com/id/56449232/ . live .
  10. Web site: Breaking Democrats' 'Blue Wall'. National Review. 17 February 2015. 28 February 2015. 19 February 2015. https://web.archive.org/web/20150219203629/http://www.nationalreview.com/article/398722/breaking-democrats-blue-wall-michael-barone?. live.
  11. Web site: Democrats say a 2016 electoral college "blue wall" means Republicans can't win. Wrong. 25 February 2015. 28 February 2015. https://web.archive.org/web/20150322214945/http://rare.us/story/democrats-say-a-2016-electoral-college-blue-wall-means-republicans-cant-win-wrong/. 22 March 2015. dead.
  12. Web site: There Is No 'Blue Wall' . Silver . Nate . Nate Silver . 12 May 2015 . . 21 March 2016 . 8 November 2020 . https://web.archive.org/web/20201108110513/http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/there-is-no-blue-wall/ . live .
  13. Web site: OFFICIAL 2016 PRESIDENTIAL GENERAL ELECTION RESULTS, General Election Date: 11/08/2016. 30 January 2017. Federal Election Commission.
  14. Web site: UTC. NBC News Exit Poll Desk1d ago / 4:52 PM. NBC News Exit Poll: How Biden rebuilt the Democrats' 'blue wall'. 2020-11-08. NBC News. 8 November 2020 . en. 2021-01-14. https://web.archive.org/web/20210114193403/https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-election/blog/2020-11-07-trump-biden-election-results-n1246882. live.
  15. Web site: Mejia . Elena . Skelley . Geoffrey . How The 2020 Election Changed The Electoral Map . 8 December 2020 . 19 March 2021 . 14 April 2022 . https://web.archive.org/web/20220414215627/https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-swing-states/ . live .
  16. Web site: Biden becomes the first Democrat to win Georgia since 1992, CBS News projects. 2020-11-16. CBS News. 13 November 2020 . en. 2024-06-26. https://web.archive.org/web/20240626091231/https://www.cbsnews.com/news/joe-biden-georgia-first-democrat-win-since-1992-cbs-news-projects/. live.
  17. Web site: Biden wins Arizona, flips longtime Republican stronghold. 2020-11-16. Associated Press. 4 November 2020 . en. 2020-11-19. https://web.archive.org/web/20201119050256/https://apnews.com/article/election-2020-joe-biden-donald-trump-race-and-ethnicity-legislature-218ad4d596e87c6b1a223f19f817776e. live.
  18. News: Biden Wins Nebraska's 2nd Congressional District . Bloomberg.com . 4 November 2020 . 2020-11-26 . 2020-11-04 . https://web.archive.org/web/20201104172917/https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-11-04/biden-wins-nebraska-s-2nd-congressional-district . live .
  19. Web site: Watson . Kathryn . 2024-11-06 . Trump wins Pennsylvania in 2024 presidential election, securing major battleground state. See the county-by-county results. . 2024-11-06 . www.cbsnews.com . en-US.
  20. Web site: 2024 Michigan Election Results . 2024-11-06 . AP NEWS . en.
  21. Web site: 7 charts and maps show where Harris underperformed and lost the election . Amy . O'Kruk . Renee . Rigdon . CNN Politics.
  22. Web site: 2024-11-06 . Trump wins Dearborn, makes gains in Hamtramck amid anger over Gaza . 2024-11-06 . www.freep.com . en-US.
  23. Web site: 2024-11-06 . ‘We warned you,’ Arab Americans in Michigan tell Kamala Harris . 2024-11-06 . www.aljazeera.com . en-US.
  24. Web site: 2024-11-06 . Michigan's Muslim Voters Sent Kamala Harris a 'Message'—Democrat . 2024-11-06 . www.newsweek.com . en-US.
  25. Web site: 2024-11-06 . Trump wins Dearborn, Dearborn Heights amid fury over Gaza, Lebanon wars . 2024-11-06 . www.detroitnews.com . en-US.
  26. Web site: 2024-11-06 . Arab American Voters in Dearborn, Michigan, Heard Trump's Case . 2024-11-06 . www.detroitnews.com . en-US.
  27. News: Fetterman says Trump's 'special' place in Pennsylvania grew after assassination attempt . Ray . Lewis . CBS Austin . September 21, 2024.
  28. Web site: 2024-11-06 . Latest Election 2024 News and Updates Fox News Elections Center . 2024-11-06 . www.foxnews.com . en-US.
  29. News: Carson . Biz . Even Liberal San Francisco Is Swept Up in Voter Shift Toward Trump . Bloomberg . November 14, 2024.

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