2012 Missouri gubernatorial election explained

Election Name:2012 Missouri gubernatorial election
Country:Missouri
Type:presidential
Ongoing:no
Previous Election:2008 Missouri gubernatorial election
Previous Year:2008
Next Election:2016 Missouri gubernatorial election
Next Year:2016
Image1:File:MO Governors - 55 Jeremiah Jay Nixon (2009-2017) (52976934813) (crop).jpg
Nominee1:Jay Nixon
Party1:Democratic Party (United States)
Popular Vote1:1,494,056
Percentage1:54.77%
Nominee2:Dave Spence
Party2:Republican Party (United States)
Popular Vote2:1,160,265
Percentage2:42.53%
Governor
Before Election:Jay Nixon
Before Party:Democratic Party (United States)
After Election:Jay Nixon
After Party:Democratic Party (United States)

The 2012 Missouri gubernatorial election was held on November 6, 2012, to elect the Governor of Missouri. Incumbent Democratic Governor Jay Nixon won re-election against the Republican nominee, businessman Dave Spence, despite incumbent President Barack Obama losing Missouri on the same day to Republican nominee Mitt Romney., this is the last time a Democrat won the governorship of Missouri to date. This is also the last time that a governor and lieutenant governor of different political parties were simultaneously elected in Missouri.

Democratic primary

Candidates

Results

The Democratic primary was held on August 8, 2012.

Republican primary

Candidates

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s) administeredclass=small Sample
size		Margin of
error		Bill
Randles		Fred
Sauer		Dave
Spence		John
Weiler		Undecided
Public Policy PollingAugust 4–5, 2012590± 4.0%15%12% align=center42%3%29%
Mason-DixonJuly 23–25, 2012400± 5.0%15%1% align=center41%3%40%
Public Policy PollingMay 24–27, 2012430± 4.7%11%4% align=center32%1% align=center43%
Public Policy PollingJanuary 27–29, 2012574± 4.1% align=center15%—11%— align=center74%

Results

Libertarian primary

Candidates

Denied ballot access

Results

General election

Debates

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
align=left The Cook Political Report[4] November 1, 2012
align=left Sabato's Crystal Ball[5] November 5, 2012
align=left Rothenberg Political Report[6] November 2, 2012
align=left Real Clear Politics[7] November 5, 2012

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s) administeredclass=small Sample
size		Margin of
error		width=100pxJay
Nixon (D)		width=110pxDave
Spence (R)		OtherUndecided
Public Policy PollingNovember 2–3, 2012835± 3.4% align=center53%45%—2%
SurveyUSAOctober 28–November 3, 2012589± 4.1% align=center48%39%5%8%
Mason-DixonOctober 23–25, 2012625± 4% align=center48%42%—9%
Public Policy PollingOctober 19–21, 2012582± 4.1% align=center51%40%—8%
Public Policy PollingOctober 1–3, 2012700± 3.7% align=center54%35%—12%
Public Policy PollingAugust 20, 2012500± 4.4% align=center46%37%—16%
Survey USAAugust 9–12, 2012585± 4.1% align=center51%37%5%6%
Chilenski StrategiesAugust 8, 2012663± 3.8% align=center53%39%—9%
Mason-DixonJuly 23–25, 2012625± 4.0% align=center48%39%—13%
Public Policy PollingMay 24–27, 2012602± 4.0% align=center45%34%—21%
Public Policy PollingJanuary 27–29, 2012582± 4.1% align=center47%27%—26%
Republican primary
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		class=small Sample
size		Margin of
error		width=80pxPeter
Kinder		width=80pxBill
Randles		width=80pxUndecided
Public Policy PollingSeptember 9–12, 2011400± 4.9% align=center34%14% align=center53%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		class=small Sample
size		Margin of
error		width=80pxPeter
Kinder		width=80pxSomeone
else		width=80pxUndecided
Public Policy PollingSeptember 9–12, 2011400± 4.9%22% align=center35% align=center43%
General election
Poll sourceDate(s) administeredclass=small Sample
size		Margin of
error		width=100pxJay
Nixon (D)		width=100pxBill
Randles (R)		OtherUndecided
Mason-DixonJuly 23–25, 2012625± 4.0% align=center50%35%—15%
Public Policy PollingMay 24–27, 2012602± 4.0% align=center46%32%—22%
Public Policy PollingJanuary 27–29, 2012582± 4.1% align=center47%29%—24%
Public Policy PollingSeptember 9–12, 2011632± 3.9% align=center45%24%—30%
Poll sourceDate(s) administeredclass=small Sample
size		Margin of
error		width=100pxJay
Nixon (D)		width=100pxMatt
Blunt (R)		OtherUndecided
Public Policy PollingSeptember 9–12, 2011632± 3.9% align=center50%37%—13%
Public Policy PollingApril 28-May 1, 2011555± 3.9% align=center48%38%—13%
Poll sourceDate(s) administeredclass=small Sample
size		Margin of
error		width=100pxJay
Nixon (D)		width=100pxJohn
Danforth (R)		OtherUndecided
Public Policy PollingSeptember 9–12, 2011632± 3.9%39% align=center45%—17%
Poll sourceDate(s) administeredclass=small Sample
size		Margin of
error		width=100pxJay
Nixon (D)		width=100pxKenny
Hulshof (R)		OtherUndecided
Public Policy PollingApril 28-May 1, 2011555± 3.9% align=center51%34%—15%
Poll sourceDate(s) administeredclass=small Sample
size		Margin of
error		width=100pxJay
Nixon (D)		width=100pxPeter
Kinder (R)		OtherUndecided
Public Policy PollingSeptember 9–12, 2011632± 3.9% align=center50%31%—18%
Public Policy PollingApril 28-May 1, 2011555± 3.9% align=center48%34%—18%
Public Policy PollingMarch 3–6, 2011612± 4.0% align=center45%38%—17%
Public Policy PollingNov. 29-December 1, 2010515± 4.3% align=center47%39%—14%
Poll sourceDate(s) administeredclass=small Sample
size		Margin of
error		width=100pxJay
Nixon (D)		width=100pxSarah
Steelman (R)		OtherUndecided
Public Policy PollingNov. 29-December 1, 2010515± 4.3% align=center46%35%—19%
Poll sourceDate(s) administeredclass=small Sample
size		Margin of
error		width=100pxJay
Nixon (D)		width=100pxJim
Talent (R)		OtherUndecided
Public Policy PollingSeptember 9–12, 2011632± 3.9% align=center47%38%—14%

Results

Nixon won by a comfortable 12.3% margin, though this was somewhat closer than his 2008 victory. Even with President Barack Obama losing the state by a nine-point margin, Nixon and Senator Claire McCaskill both won reelection easily. Like his Senatorial colleague, Nixon was able to get a huge number of votes from rural areas. Both Nixon and McCaskill were declared the winners of their respective races even before the known Democratic strongholds of St. Louis and Kansas City came in.

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

By congressional district

Nixon won 5 of 8 congressional districts, including three that elected Republicans.[8]

DistrictNixonSpenceRepresentative
1st81.38%13.21%Lacy Clay
2nd50.67%47.37%Todd Akin (112th Congress)
Ann Wagner (113th Congress)
3rd48.20%49.08%Russ Carnahan (112th Congress)
Blaine Luetkemeyer (113th Congress)
4th49.16%47.46%Vicky Hartzler
5th66.00%31.20%Emanuel Cleaver
6th50.09%46.96%Sam Graves
7th43.75%53.39%Billy Long
8th48.27%49.06%Jo Ann Emerson

See also

External links

Campaign sites (Archived)

Notes and References

  1. Web site: Susan Redden: Candidates for governor, lieutenant governor total 23. April 2, 2012. May 25, 2012. The Joplin Globe. Susan. Redden.
  2. Web site: Gov. Nixon confirms he will seek re-election. December 16, 2010. December 16, 2010. Associated Press. dead. https://archive.today/20120729231735/http://www.columbiamissourian.com/stories/2010/12/16/gov-nixon-confirms-he-will-seek-re-election. July 29, 2012.
  3. Web site: Governor candidate Randles: Voters reject 'next guy in line' philosophy. 25 August 2011.
  4. Web site: 2012 Governor Race Ratings for November 1, 2012 . The Cook Political Report . November 30, 2018.
  5. Web site: PROJECTION: OBAMA WILL LIKELY WIN SECOND TERM . Sabato's Crystal Ball . November 30, 2018 . December 1, 2018 . https://web.archive.org/web/20181201094552/http://crystalball.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/projection-obama-will-likely-win-second-term/ . dead .
  6. Web site: 2012 Gubernatorial Ratings . Gubernatorial Ratings . The Rothenberg Political Report . November 30, 2018.
  7. Web site: 2012 Elections Map - 2012 Governor Races . Real Clear Politics . November 30, 2018.
  8. Web site: Daily Kos.

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