2018 United States Senate election in Massachusetts explained

Election Name:	2018 United States Senate election in Massachusetts
Country:	Massachusetts
Type:	presidential
Ongoing:	no
Previous Election:	2012 United States Senate election in Massachusetts
Previous Year:	2012
Next Election:	2024 United States Senate election in Massachusetts
Next Year:	2024
Turnout:	59.17%
Image1:	File:Elizabeth Warren--2016 Official Portrait--(cropped).jpg
Nominee1:	Elizabeth Warren
Party1:	Democratic Party (United States)
Popular Vote1:	1,633,371
Percentage1:	60.34%
Nominee2:	Geoff Diehl
Party2:	Republican Party (United States)
Popular Vote2:	979,210
Percentage2:	36.17%
Map Size:	250px
U.S. Senator
Before Election:	Elizabeth Warren
Before Party:	Democratic Party (United States)
After Election:	Elizabeth Warren
After Party:	Democratic Party (United States)

The 2018 United States Senate election in Massachusetts took place on November 6, 2018. Incumbent Democratic U.S. Senator Elizabeth Warren ran for re-election to a second term. The candidate filing deadline was June 5, 2018, and the primary election was held on September 4, 2018.^[1]

Warren won re-election, defeating her Republican opponent, Geoff Diehl.^[2]

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominated

• Elizabeth Warren, incumbent U.S. Senator^{[3] [4]}

Results

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominated

• Geoff Diehl, state representative^[5]

Eliminated in primary

• John Kingston, attorney and founder and president of Better for America^[6]
• Beth Lindstrom, former Undersecretary of the Massachusetts Office of Consumer Affairs and Business Regulation^[7]

Eliminated at convention

• Darius Mitchell^[8]
• Heidi Wellman^[9]

Declined

• Gabriel Gomez, businessman, former Navy SEAL and nominee for the U.S. Senate in 2013^[10]
• Rick Green, businessman (running for House of Representatives) ^{[11] [12]}
• Curt Schilling, former Major League Baseball pitcher^[13]
• Bill Weld, former governor, nominee for the U.S. Senate in 1996 and Libertarian nominee for Vice President of the United States in 2016 (endorsed Beth Lindstrom)^[14]
• Daniel Winslow, former state representative and candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2013^[15]

Results

By county

Results by county.

Red represents counties won by Diehl. Teal represents counties won by Kingston.

County	Diehl %	Diehl votes	Kingston %	Kingston votes	Lindstrom %	Lindstrom votes
	Barnstable	57.0%	10,761	24.2%	4,573	18.6%	3,513
	Berkshire	47.9%	1,221	37.8%	965	13.8%	352
	Bristol	61.8%	11,005	23.0%	4,095	15.0%	2,669
	Dukes	55.2%	347	25.9%	163	18.9%	119
	Essex	53.1%	17,716	28.3%	9,428	18.3%	6,104
bgcolor=#afeeee	Franklin	41.8%	938	42.3%	949	15.3%	343
	Hampden	50.5%	7,491	34.0%	5,048	15.0%	2,225
	Hampshire	45.7%	1,967	36.7%	1,579	16.9%	725
	Middlesex	52.5%	29,084	26.8%	14,852	20.3%	11,218
	Nantucket	50.1%	168	29.6%	99	20.3%	68
	Norfolk	58.9%	18,749	22.0%	7,009	18.8%	5,992
	Plymouth	70.1%	23,242	19.8%	6,549	10.0%	3,316
	Suffolk	53.5%	4,792	27.6%	2,471	18.2%	1,628
	Worcester	44.8%	16,562	32.1%	11,856	22.8%	8,421
Total	55.2%	144,043	26.7%	69,636	17.9%	46,693

Libertarian primary

Candidates

Declined

• Bill Weld, former Republican governor and nominee for Vice President of the United States in 2016^{[17] [15]}

Independents

Candidates

Declared

• Shiva Ayyadurai, entrepreneur^[18] and conspiracy theorist^[19]
• John Devine^[20]
• Allen Waters^[21]

Declined

• Gabriel Gomez, businessman, former Navy SEAL and Republican nominee for the U.S. Senate in 2013^[22]

General election

Debates

• Complete video of debate, October 19, 2018
• Complete video of debate, October 21, 2018

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
The Cook Political Report^[23]		September 28, 2018
Inside Elections^[24]		September 29, 2017
Sabato's Crystal Ball^[25]		September 27, 2017
Fox News^[26]		July 9, 2018
CNN^[27]		July 12, 2018
RealClearPolitics^[28]		May 26, 2018

^Highest rating they assert

Polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Elizabeth Warren (D)	Geoff Diehl (R)	Shiva Ayyadurai (I)	Other	Undecided
MassINC^[29]	October 25–28, 2018	502	± 4.4%	align=center	54%	32%	6%	3%	3%
Suffolk University^[30]	October 24–28, 2018	500	± 4.4%	align=center	56%	34%	4%	–	5%
Western New England University^[31]	October 10–27, 2018	402 LV	± 5.0%	align=center	57%	27%	7%	–	8%
	485 RV	± 4.0%	align=center	54%	27%	6%	–	12%
UMass Lowell^[32]	October 1–7, 2018	485 LV	± 5.6%	align=center	56%	31%	8%	3%	2%
	791 RV	± 4.4%	align=center	56%	28%	9%	4%	1%
MassINC^[33]	September 17–21, 2018	506	± 4.4%	align=center	56%	30%	5%	1%	6%
Suffolk University^[34]	September 13–17, 2018	500	± 4.4%	align=center	54%	24%	6%	–	16%
Suffolk University^[35]	June 8–12, 2018	500	± 4.4%	align=center	55%	33%	–	–	11%
MassINC^[36]	May 22–26, 2018	501	± 4.4%	align=center	54%	19%	8%	1%	15%
MassINC^[37]	March 16–18, 2018	504	± 4.4%	align=center	55%	20%	9%	1%	13%
MassINC^[38]	November 9–12, 2017	503	± 4.4%	align=center	58%	32%	–	3%	7%
MassINC^[39]	June 19–22, 2017	504	± 4.4%	align=center	60%	29%	–	1%	8%

with Beth Lindstrom

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Elizabeth Warren (D)	Beth Lindstrom (R)	Shiva Ayyadurai (I)	Other	Undecided
Suffolk University^[40]	June 8–12, 2018	500	± 4.4%	align=center	56%	31%	–	–	13%
MassINC	May 22–26, 2018	501	± 4.4%	align=center	55%	19%	7%	2%	15%
MassINC	March 16–18, 2018	504	± 4.4%	align=center	53%	19%	9%	1%	14%
MassINC	November 9–12, 2017	504	± 4.4%	align=center	56%	33%	–	3%	8%

with John Kingston

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Elizabeth Warren (D)	John Kingston (R)	Shiva Ayyadurai (I)	Other	Undecided
Suffolk University^[41]	June 8–12, 2018	500	± 4.4%	align=center	54%	30%	–	–	15%
MassINC	May 22–26, 2018	501	± 4.4%	align=center	56%	19%	8%	1%	14%
MassINC	March 16–18, 2018	504	± 4.4%	align=center	53%	19%	7%	2%	12%
MassINC	November 9–12, 2017	504	± 4.4%	align=center	57%	33%	–	2%	7%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Elizabeth Warren (D)	Karyn Polito (R)	Mitt Romney (R)	Richard Tisei (R)	Other	Undecided
UMass Amherst^[42]	align=center rowspan=3	September 15–20, 2016	align=center rowspan=3	≈450	align=center rowspan=3	± 4.1%	align=center	40%	36%	–	–	5%	19%
	align=center	44%	–	31%	–	10%	15%
	align=center	39%	–	–	32%	3%	26%

with Shiva Ayyadurai running as Republican

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Elizabeth Warren (D)	Shiva Ayyadurai (R)	Other	Undecided
MassINC	November 9–12, 2017	504	± 4.4%	align=center	58%	27%	4%	10%
MassINC	June 19–22, 2017	504	± 4.4%	align=center	61%	25%	2%	9%

with Curt Schilling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Elizabeth Warren (D)	Curt Schilling (R)	Other	Undecided
Suffolk University^[43]	October 24–26, 2016	500	± 4.4%	align=center	58%	24%	2%	16%
UMass Amherst	September 15–20, 2016	≈450	± 4.1%	align=center	47%	28%	9%	16%
MassINC^[44]	September 7–10, 2016	506	± 4.4%	align=center	54%	29%	3%	15%

with William Weld

Results

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

• Barnstable (largest municipality: Barnstable)
• Essex (largest municipality: Lynn)
• Norfolk (largest municipality: Quincy)
• Worcester (largest municipality: Worcester)

By congressional district

Warren won all of the state’s congressional districts.^[45]

District	Diehl	Warren	Representative
1st	37.34%	58.95%		Richard Neal
2nd	39.07%	57.01%		Jim McGovern
3rd	38.56%	57.51%		Niki Tsongas (115th Congress)
			Lori Trahan (116th Congress)
4th	38.45%	58.19%		Joe Kennedy III
5th	27.82%	68.91%		Katherine Clark
	6th	41.21%	54.98%		Seth Moulton
7th	13.15%	84.51%		Michael Capuano (115th Congress)
			Ayanna Pressley (116th Congress)
8th	39.45%	57.65%		Stephen Lynch
9th	45.67%	51.13%		Bill Keating

External links

• Candidates at Vote Smart
• Candidates at Ballotpedia
• Campaign finance at FEC
• Campaign finance at OpenSecrets

Official campaign websites

• Shiva Ayyadurai (I) for Senate
• Geoff Diehl (R) for Senate
• Elizabeth Warren (D) for Senate
• Allen Waters (I) for Senate

Notes and References

1. News: United States Senate election in Massachusetts, 2018 – Ballotpedia. March 3, 2017. en-US.
2. News: Here's an updating list of the 2018 Massachusetts election winners . Christopher . Gavin . . November 6, 2018 . November 6, 2018.
3. Web site: Warren says she will run for reelection. The Hill. Hagan. Lisa. January 6, 2017. January 7, 2017.
4. Web site: Warren announces she's running for re-election. The Boston Globe. McGrane. Victoria. January 6, 2017. January 11, 2017.
5. Web site: Trump backer Geoff Diehl launches bid to unseat Elizabeth Warren. The Boston Globe. O'Sullivan. Jim. August 2, 2017. August 2, 2017.
6. Web site: Kingston formally launches US Senate bid for Republican nomination – The Boston Globe. .
7. Web site: GOP's Beth Lindstrom to launch challenge to Elizabeth Warren in 2018. The Boston Globe. O'Sullivan. Jim. August 21, 2017. August 21, 2017.
8. Web site: MITCHELL, DARIUS – Candidate overview – FEC.gov. FEC.gov.
9. Web site: WELLMAN, HEIDI M – Candidate overview – FEC.gov. FEC.gov.
10. Web site: Weighing another run, Gomez sees Warren as beatable. WWLP. April 12, 2017. April 14, 2017. Matt. Murphy.
11. Web site: GOP businessman may challenge Elizabeth Warren for re-election. The Boston Globe. January 10, 2017. January 12, 2017. Frank. Phillips. January 12, 2017. https://web.archive.org/web/20170112183550/http://www.bostonglobe.com/metro/2017/01/10/gop-businessman-may-challenge-warren/NHYbXRLmNgSH5Gw8xs7oNN/story.html#comments. dead.
12. Web site: Businessman Rick Green decides against US Senate bid. The Boston Globe. March 13, 2017. March 15, 2017. Frank. Phillips.
13. Web site: Curt Schilling considers challenging Elizabeth Warren. The Hill. August 16, 2016. August 16, 2016. Paulina. Firozi.
14. Web site: Libertarian Bill Weld will head up a fund-raising event . . . for the GOP – The Boston Globe. .
15. Web site: Liz Warren running into wrath of Donald Trump. January 7, 2017. Boston Herald. January 11, 2017. Chris. Cassidy.
16. https://d279m997dpfwgl.cloudfront.net/wp/2018/06/Topline-2018-06-WBUR-Rep-primary.pdf MassINC
17. Web site: Poll: William Weld Nearly Tied with Elizabeth Warren in 2018 Senate Race. The Libertarian Republic. October 5, 2016. December 23, 2016. Josh. Guckert.
18. Web site: Shiva Ayyadurai Is Running for Senate as an Independent. Buell. Spencer. November 11, 2017. Boston Magazine. November 13, 2017.
19. Web site: Breland. Ali. Wellness influencers are spreading QAnon conspiracies about the coronavirus.. January 26, 2021. Mother Jones. en-US.
20. Web site: DEVINE, JOHN – Candidate overview – FEC.gov. FEC.gov.
21. Web site: WATERS, ALLEN – Candidate overview – FEC.gov. FEC.gov.
22. Web site: Gomez leaves GOP, eyes independent bid against Warren . CommonWealth Magazine. January 16, 2018. January 17, 2018. Steve. Koczela.
23. Web site: 2018 Senate Race Ratings. The Cook Political Report. October 11, 2017.
24. Web site: 2018 Senate Ratings. The Rothenberg Political Report. October 11, 2017.
25. Web site: 2018 Crystal Ball Senate race ratings. Sabato's Crystal Ball. October 11, 2017.
26. Web site: 2018 Senate Power Rankings. . July 10, 2018.
27. Web site: Key Races: Senate. July 15, 2018.
28. Web site: Battle for the Senate 2018. July 15, 2018.
29. https://d279m997dpfwgl.cloudfront.net/wp/2018/10/1030_senate-poll-topline.pdf MassINC
30. https://assets.documentcloud.org/documents/5023362/Final-Ma-Likely-voter-2018-study-SUPRC-Globe.pdf Suffolk University
31. https://www1.wne.edu/polling-institute/doc/2018-oct-10-27/ma1018-tables.pdf Western New England University
32. https://www.uml.edu/docs/TOPLINE%20-%20UMass%20Lowell-Boston%20Globe%20MA%20Statewide%20October%202018_tcm18-300195.pdf UMass Lowell
33. https://d279m997dpfwgl.cloudfront.net/wp/2018/09/Topline-2018-09-WBUR-General-1-Ballots-Senate.pdf MassINC
34. https://www.suffolk.edu/documents/SUPRC/9_20_2018_marginals.pdf Suffolk University
35. http://www.suffolk.edu/documents/News/Mass_Marginals_6-14-18_revised.pdf Suffolk University
36. https://d279m997dpfwgl.cloudfront.net/wp/2018/05/Topline-2018-05-WBUR-Gov-Sen-Ballot-Qs.pdf MassINC
37. https://d279m997dpfwgl.cloudfront.net/wp/2018/03/Topline-2018-03-WBUR-Senate.pdf MassINC
38. https://d279m997dpfwgl.cloudfront.net/wp/2017/11/Topline-2017-11-WBUR-Issues-3-Wed-5am.pdf MassINC
39. https://d279m997dpfwgl.cloudfront.net/wp/2017/06/0627_topline.pdf MassINC
40. http://www.suffolk.edu/documents/News/Mass_Marginals_6-14-18_revised.pdf Suffolk University
41. http://www.suffolk.edu/documents/News/Mass_Marginals_6-14-18_revised.pdf Suffolk University
42. https://www.umass.edu/newsoffice/sites/default/files/attachments/toplines_MA_sept.pdf UMass Amherst
43. http://www.suffolk.edu/documents/SUPRC/10_27_2016_marginals.pdf Suffolk University
44. https://d279m997dpfwgl.cloudfront.net/wp/2016/09/Topline-2016-09-WBUR-MA-Full-Survey.pdf MassINC
45. Web site: Daily Kos.