Australian region tropical cyclone explained

An Australian region tropical cyclone is a non-frontal, low-pressure system that has developed within an environment of warm sea surface temperatures and little vertical wind shear aloft in either the Southern Indian Ocean or the South Pacific Ocean.[1] Within the Southern Hemisphere there are officially three areas where tropical cyclones develop on a regular basis: the South-West Indian Ocean between Africa and 90°E, the Australian region between 90°E and 160°E, and the South Pacific basin between 160°E and 120°W. The Australian region between 90°E and 160°E is officially monitored by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology, the Indonesian Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysical Agency, and the Papua New Guinea National Weather Service, while others like the Fiji Meteorological Service and the United States National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration also monitor the basin. Each tropical cyclone year within this basin starts on 1 July and runs throughout the year, encompassing the tropical cyclone season, which runs from 1 November and lasts until 30 April each season. Within the basin, most tropical cyclones have their origins within the South Pacific convergence zone or within the Northern Australian monsoon trough, both of which form an extensive area of cloudiness and are dominant features of the season. Within this region a tropical disturbance is classified as a tropical cyclone when it has 10-minute sustained wind speeds of at least 65 km/h (40 mph) that wrap halfway around the low level circulation centre, while a severe tropical cyclone is classified when the maximum 10-minute sustained wind speeds are greater than 120 km/h (75 mph).

Basin history

There is a history of tropical cyclones affecting northeastern Australia for over 5000 years; however, Clement Lindley Wragge was the first person to monitor and name them.[2]

In the early history of tropical cyclones in the Australian region, the only evidence of a storm was based on ship reports and observations from land. Later, satellite imagery began in the basin in the 1959-60 season, although it was not continuous until 1970. In Western Australia in particular, the lack of population centers, shipping lanes, radars, and offshore stations meant that storms were tracked infrequently. After the onset of satellite imagery, the Dvorak technique was used to estimate storms' intensities and locations.[3]

Each of three tropical cyclone warning centres (TCWCs) of the Bureau of Meteorology in Perth, Darwin and Brisbane used its own tropical cyclone naming list until the 2008–09 season, when the three TCWCs started to use the single Australian national naming list. From the 2020–21 season, the three TCWCs were unified into one single TCWC which still monitors all tropical cyclones that form within the Australian region, including any within the areas of responsibility of TCWC Jakarta or TCWC Port Moresby.[4] Later in 2021, the Australian tropical cyclone warning centre was officially named as TCWC Melbourne.

Background

The Australian region is currently defined as being between 90°E and 160°E, and is monitored by five different warning centres during the season, which runs from 1 November to 30 April.

Australian tropical cyclone outlook regions

The Bureau of Meteorology defines four regions within the Australian region which are used when the bureau issues tropical cyclone seasonal outlooks every year. These four regions are named the Western region, the Northwestern sub-region, the Northern region and the Eastern region. The Australian region overall averages eleven tropical cyclones in a season, and the bureau assesses the region as a whole to have a high level of accuracy when forecasting tropical cyclone activity.[5]

The Western region encompasses the area east of 90°E and west of 125°E.[5] The region covers the eastern Indian Ocean including the Cocos (Keeling) Islands and Christmas Island, and waters off Western Australia west of Kuri Bay. The region also covers waters off Indonesia that include the main islands of Java, Bali, Lombok, Sumbawa, Sumba, Flores and the western half of Timor. The region averages seven tropical cyclones in a season, and the bureau assesses the region to have a low level of accuracy when forecasting tropical cyclone activity.[5]

The Northwestern sub-region encompasses the area east of 105°E, west of 130°E and north of 25°S.[5] The sub-region covers waters off Western Australia north of Shark Bay, and extends westward to Christmas Island. The sub-region also covers waters off Indonesia as far west as Java and as far east as Timor. The sub-region averages five tropical cyclones in a season, and the bureau assesses the sub-region to have a moderate level of accuracy when forecasting tropical cyclone activity.[5]

The Northern region encompasses the area east of 125°E and west of 142.5°E.[5] The region covers the Timor Sea, the Banda Sea, the Arafura Sea and the Gulf of Carpentaria. The region averages three tropical cyclones in a season, and the bureau assesses the region to have a very low level of accuracy when forecasting tropical cyclone activity.[5]

The Eastern region encompasses the area east of 142.5°E and west of 160°E.[5] The region covers waters east of Torres Strait and includes the Coral Sea and the Tasman Sea. Lord Howe Island lies within the region, but Norfolk Island lies east of the region, although the bureau continues to monitor tropical cyclones when they are a threat to the external territory.[6] The region also covers waters off Papua New Guinea and western parts of the Solomon Islands. The region averages four tropical cyclones in a season, and the bureau assesses the region to have a low level of accuracy when forecasting tropical cyclone activity.[5]

Seasons

+Historical storm formation by month between 1990 and 2020

Before 1900

See main article: List of Australian region cyclones before 1900.

1900–1909

See also: 1900s Australian region cyclone seasons.

1910–1919

See also: 1910s Australian region cyclone seasons.

1920–1929

See also: 1920s Australian region cyclone seasons.

1930–1939

See also: 1930s Australian region cyclone seasons.

1940–1949

See also: 1940s Australian region cyclone seasons.

1950–1959

See also: 1950s Australian region cyclone seasons.

1960–1969

See also: 1960s Australian region cyclone seasons.

Season Strongest
storm
Deaths Damage class=unsortable Retired names !class=unsortable References
Flora
15 13 1
14 14 1 14 ?

1970s

Season Strongest
storm
Deaths Damage class=unsortable Retired names !class=unsortable References
20 20 10 Sheila-Sophie Unknown ? Dora
Fiona-Gertie
18 18 10 Emily Unknown ? Althea
Daisy
Emily
15 15 8 "Flores" >1,574 ? Madge [7]
19 19 9 Jessie Unknown ?
16 16 7 Trixie >71 ? Tracy
Trixie
16 15 8 Unknown ? Joan
David
Beth
13 13 6 Ted Unknown ? Ted
9 5 2 Unknown ?
13 12 5 Hazel Unknown ?
15 15 9 Amy Unknown ? Simon

1980s

Season Strongest
storm
Deaths Damage class=unsortable Retired Names !class=unsortable References
14 14 11 Mabel Unknown Unknown Cliff
15 15 7 Chris-Damia Unknown Unknown
7 7 5 Elinor Unknown Unknown Jane
Elinor
22 21 11 Kathy 1 $19 million Kathy
Lance
20 18 11 Kristy 0 $3.5 million Nigel
Sandy
Margot
17 16 8 Victor 153 $250 million Winifred
Manu
9 7 2 Elsie 0 None Connie
Jason
Elsie
6 5 2 Gwenda-Ezenina 1 $17.9 million
14 13 6 6 $93.9 million Ilona
Delilah
Ned
Aivu
Orson
14 14 4 Alex Unknown Unknown Pedro
Felicity
Tina
Ivor

1990s

Season Strongest
storm
Deaths Damage class=unsortable Retired names !class=unsortable References
12 10 7 Marian 27 Joy
Daphne
Fifi
12 10 9 Graham 5 Mark
Ian
8 8 4 Oliver 0 Nina
Lena
Oliver
Roger
Adel
14 12 7 22 Naomi
Pearl
Quenton
Theodore
Sharon
19 6 6 Chloe 1 Annette
Bobby
Violet
Warren
Chloe
Agnes
19 15 9 1 Frank
Gertie
Barry
Celeste
Ethel
Kirsty
Olivia
17 15 5 Pancho 34
11 9 4 Tiffany [8]
21 14 9 8 Thelma
Rona
Vance
Elaine
Gwenda
14 12 5 Paul 0
Gwenda

2000s

Season Strongest
storm
Deaths Damage class=unsortableRetired names !class=unsortable References
14 8 3 2
14 10 3 19 Upia Chris
11 9 3 62
13 10 5 0 Monty
Fay
13 10 5 5 Harvey
Ingrid
18 12 8 0 Clare
Larry
Glenda
Monica
8 5 3 3 George
14 10 3 Pancho 149
24 10 3 5
13 8 4 3
Inigo

2010s

Season Strongest
storm
Deaths Damage class=unsortable Retired names !class=unsortable References
28 11 6 3 [9]
21 7 3 16 > Heidi
Jasmine
Lua
16 9 6 20 [10]
17 10 5 22 Christine
Ita
18 9 7 1 >
11 3 0 Stan 0 None None
30 9 3 16
23 11 3 41 Marcus
25 11 5 14 Trevor
Veronica
19 9 3 28 $4.3 million
Marcus

2020s

Season Strongest
storm
Deaths Damage class=unsortable Retired names !class=unsortable Notes
27 8 3 272 $518.7 million Second-deadliest Australian region cyclone season on record.
32 10 2 4 $75 million Seth
25 7 5 8 $2.7 million Freddy
Gabrielle
Ilsa
11 8 6 1$675 million
Totals 94 32 16 Darian and Ilsa 285 $1.27 billion 2 names

See also

External links

Notes and References

  1. RA V Tropical Cyclone Committee . World Meteorological Organization . Tropical Cyclone Operational Plan for the South-East Indian Ocean and the Southern Pacific Ocean 2014 . 5 May 2015 . 2B–1–2B–4 (23–26) . List of Tropical Cyclone Names withdrawn from use due to a Cyclone's Negative Impact on one or more countries . 6 May 2015 . https://web.archive.org/web/20150518091942/https://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/www/tcp/documents/TCP24_RAVOpPlan_2014_final.pdf . 18 May 2015 . live . dmy .
  2. Nott . Jonathan . Palaeotempestology: the study of prehistoric tropical cyclones—a review and implications for hazard assessment . Environment International . May 2004 . 30 . 3 . 433–447 . 10.1016/j.envint.2003.09.010 . 14987874 .
  3. Book: Buchan . S.J. . Black . P.G. . Cohen . R.L. . 1999 . The Impact of Tropical Cyclone Olivia on Australia's Northwest Shelf . Offshore Technology Conference . 10.4043/10791-MS .
  4. Web site: Regional Association V -Tropical Cyclone Operational Plan for the South Pacific and South-East Indian Ocean . World Meteorological Organization . 21 January 2021 . 15 . 2020 . 3 August 2022 . https://web.archive.org/web/20220803020208/https://login.microsoftonline.com/eaa6be54-4687-40c4-9827-c044bd8e8d3c/oauth2/authorize?client_id=00000003-0000-0ff1-ce00-000000000000&response_mode=form_post&protectedtoken=true&response_type=code%20id_token&resource=00000003-0000-0ff1-ce00-000000000000&scope=openid&nonce=CEAD55C06802B45542757E4AC51040B272BF6E60B4EE42B0-86B351F801A55323EBAB62739090F64906540E10CA4D0077D8CB02F285801078&redirect_uri=https%3A%2F%2Fwmoomm.sharepoint.com%2F_forms%2Fdefault.aspx&state=OD0w&claims=%7B%22id_token%22%3A%7B%22xms_cc%22%3A%7B%22values%22%3A%5B%22CP1%22%5D%7D%7D%7D&wsucxt=1&cobrandid=11bd8083-87e0-41b5-bb78-0bc43c8a8e8a&client-request-id=d23957a0-707f-4000-e5db-2800ede55015&sso_reload=true . live .
  5. Web site: Australian Tropical Cyclone Outlook for 2020 to 2021. 12 October 2020. Bureau of Meteorology. Australia. 9 November 2020. 12 October 2020. https://web.archive.org/web/20201012005219/http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/cyclones/australia/. live.
  6. Web site: Upgrades to the Norfolk Island Tropical Cyclone Warning Service. 20 December 2012. Bureau of Meteorology. New South Wales, Australia. 9 November 2020. 30 January 2021. https://web.archive.org/web/20210130063254/http://www.bom.gov.au/weather-services/announcements/nsw/Norfolk_Island_TC_Service_Upgrade.shtml. live.
  7. Web site: Archived copy . 29 April 2018 . https://web.archive.org/web/20130117014848/http://typhoon2000.ph/garyp_mgtcs/dec01.txt . 17 January 2013 . dead .
  8. Web site: 19 February 2012. Padgett, Gary. 1997–2011. Monthly Global Tropical Cyclone Summaries. 30 December 2019. live. https://web.archive.org/web/20191230082631/http://www.australiasevereweather.com/cyclones/tropical_cyclone_summaries_track_data.htm. Alt URL
  9. Web site: Record-breaking La Niña events – Tropical cyclone activity during 2010–11 and 2011–12. Australian Bureau of Meteorology. 22 July 2012. National Climate Centre. https://web.archive.org/web/20120811203358/http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/history/La-Nina-2010-12.pdf. 11 August 2012. live. 17. 3 July 2012.
  10. Web site: Nathan Paull and Miranda Forster. Australian Associated Press. News Limited. 29 January 2013. 29 January 2013. Floods recede as states count cost. 29 January 2013. https://web.archive.org/web/20130129051954/http://www.news.com.au/national/floods-and-fires-on-a-long-hard-weekend/story-fncynjr2-1226563815135. live.