| Election Name: | Auckland Central in the 2020 New Zealand general election |
| Country: | New Zealand |
| Type: | presidential |
| Previous Year: | 2017 |
| Next Year: | 2023 |
| Turnout: | Candidate vote: 35,985 (57.19%)Party vote: 36,403 (57.85%) |
| Image1: | Chlöe Swarbrick 2020 (cropped).jpg |
| Candidate1: | Chlöe Swarbrick |
| Party1: | Green Party of Aotearoa New Zealand |
| Popular Vote1: | 12,631 |
| Percentage1: | 35.10% |
| Candidate2: | Helen White |
| Popular Vote2: | 11,563 |
| Percentage2: | 32.13% |
| 1Blank: | Party vote |
| 1Data1: | 6,937 |
| 1Data2: | 16,751 |
| 2Blank: | Percentage |
| 2Data1: | 19.06% |
| 2Data2: | 46.02% |
| Before Election: | Nikki Kaye |
| MP | |
| Before Party: | New Zealand National Party |
| After Election: | Chlöe Swarbrick |
| After Party: | Green Party of Aotearoa New Zealand |
| Image3: | No image.png |
| Candidate3: | Emma Mellow |
| Party3: | New Zealand National Party |
| Popular Vote3: | 9,775 |
| Percentage3: | 27.16% |
| 1Data3: | 7,680 |
| 2Data3: | 21.10% |
| Party2: | New Zealand Labour Party |
An election took place in the Auckland Central general electorate on 17 October 2020 as part of the 2020 New Zealand general election. After incumbent MP, Nikki Kaye, declared she wouldn't run for re-election, three main candidates emerged as potential victors; Labour candidate and employment lawyer Helen White, National candidate and communications manager Emma Mellow, and incumbent Green list MP Chlöe Swarbrick.
Two polls conducted before the election showed White ahead, with Mellow and Swarbrick coming second and third, respectively. The closeness in the polls between the three candidates lead to concerns of vote splitting on the left between White and Swarbrick, which might have lead to a Mellow victory.
In a surprising result, Swarbrick won with 35% of the vote, with White on 32% coming second, and Mellow on 27% coming third. The result was the second time the Greens had won an electorate, and the first time they had done so without the endorsement of a major party.
Auckland Central is the general electorate for Auckland's central business district, as well as the outlying Aotea / Great Barrier and Waiheke islands. Demographically, the electorate is predominantly urban in character, though the outlying islands are generally rural. The electorate is liberal on social issues, though on economic issues there's more diversity due to disparate income levels between parts of the electorate. Anneke Smith of RNZ describes the electorate as "diverse, young, and highly educated."[1] Ethnically, the electorate is predominantly Pākehā and Asian.[2]
Since 1996, New Zealand has used the mixed-member proportional (MMP) system to allocate seats in parliament. Voters get two votes, one for the local candidate and one for a party. This system makes third-party candidates more viable.[3]
The election took place during the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic, and Labour's party vote was trending high because of their handling of the crisis. Campaigners faced having to adapt their strategies to deal with the challenges arising from the pandemic,[4] including stopping their campaigns during the level 3 lockdown in Auckland.[5]
Leith Huffadine for RNZ described it as an electorate to "keep your eye on", being "once a jewel in Labour's crown." Labour had controlled the seat since 1919 until Nikki Kaye won the seat off of them in 2008.
Kaye, who was briefly serving as deputy leader of the National Party, announced she would not seek re-election after Todd Muller stepped down from the party leadership. The 2017 election saw Kaye go up against Labour candidate Helen White, defeating White narrowly, with a margin of +5.38%.[6] White was re-selected as the Labour candidate for 2020. White, who grew up in Freemans Bay (a suburb within the electorate), was ranked 40th on the Labour list in 2017.[7]
The selection process for the National candidate narrowed down to two candidates, Emma Mellow and Nuwanthie Samarakone. This broke the party's rules for shortlisting candidates, as the pre-selection committee was supposed to select five candidates from which local party delegates would vote on. National Party President Peter Goodfellow "absolutely and categorically" rejected that the process was manipulated.[8] A photo of Samarakone in a leotard was reported as being passed around party members; Samarakone said she had "no tolerance" for personal attacks.[9] Emma Mellow was selected as the National candidate following a ballot at Ponsonby Cruising Club where Samarakone and another candidate, Rob Thomas, were eliminated. National Party northern regional chair Andre Hunt "bluntly" criticised party members at the meeting for the "outrageous lies" that were spread about Samarakone.[10]
The 30-year-old Mellow was a communications manager at ANZ and described herself as a "young liberal female", the same public image that Kaye had successfully used to win the urban electorate.[11]
The Green Party selected Chlöe Swarbrick as their candidate. Swarbrick had been elected as a Green list MP at the 2017 election. She ran a more-successful-than-expected campaign in the 2016 Auckland mayoral election, coming third with 7.33% of the vote. In November 2019, before she had been officially selected, political commentator Ben Thomas said a victory for her was "very unlikely".[12] Swarbrick herself said the race was "anyone's game."[13] Swarbrick had previously ran in Maungakiekie, though then she wasn't running a "two-tick" campaign and was focusing on boosting the party vote.[14]
The Opportunities Party initially had selected Joshua Love as their candidate, but after Love resigned,[15] Tuariki Delamere, former Minister of Immigration during the Fourth National Government, joined the party as their immigration spokesperson and contested the Auckland Central race.[16]
White had a background as an employment lawyer, citing her 27 years experience in the field as evidence of her ability to solve people's problems. She said that key issues for her were "good public transport, tackling homelessness and maintaining a strong health care system", and pointed to her close relationship with Jacinda Ardern, the popular incumbent Prime Minister, as an advantage she brought to the electorate. White described herself as "pragmatic."[20] White said the three biggest issues in the electorate were affordability, housing, and making the city more walkable, bikeable and public-transit oriented.
White's campaign also went after the Green Party's proposed wealth tax, hoping that wealthier voters would be put off by it. She described the policy as "loopy".
There were concerns of vote-splitting amongst the left-wing electorate, with both Labour and the Greens having popular candidates. White frequently pushed this message in hopes it would consolidate the vote around her as Labour is the major party on the left.[21] White called Swarbrick a "celebrity", and positioned Mellow as her main opponent. Swarbrick said that White was using similar tactics to misogynists that had attacked Ardern, referring to comments from White that "[She would] ask [constituents] whether they're looking for a celebrity or someone to do this job very seriously."
The suggestion that Labour do a deal with the Green Party similar to the deal between National and ACT in Epsom was ruled out by Ardern and White. White said recapturing Auckland Central meant a lot to Labour.
A fundraiser in early October for White featured former Labour Prime Minister Helen Clark, and Jennifer Ward-Lealand (2020 New Zealander of the Year) as master of ceremonies . The former prime minister spoke positively of White and expressed to attendees that she would be a voice for Auckland within Labour. Swarbrick had a campaign event on the same night nearby, a drag show with drag queen Anita Wigl'it as host.[22]
Mellow said that her generation, and the electorate generally, really cared about jobs and the future of the city, including employment and infrastructure. She described the three biggest issues facing the electorate as jobs, investment in infrastructure (including a second harbour crossing), and the environment, specifically the Hauraki Gulf's water quality. When asked why she thought she was the best candidate Mellow pointed to her commercial experience and that she was "hard-working."
According to Swarbrick, some main issues were homelessness (especially amongst young people), and protecting the Hauraki Gulf. Swarbrick pointed to her track record as a Green MP in dealing with nuanced and complex issues. Swarbrick also said that as a member of a minor party she would have a more independent voice. Swarbrick's campaign manager was 25-year-old Leroy Beckett, who had previously helped Phil Goff's mayoral re-election campaign in 2019.[23]
With the Greens hovering around the 5% requirement in polling, a win in the electorate was seen as a way to secure the continued presence of the party in parliament by some.[24] The party was also running a "two-tick" campaign in Tāmaki Makaurau, with Marama Davidson standing in Auckland's urban Māori electorate.
Polls during the race showed White ahead with Mellow in second; Swarbrick was a close third.[25] [26]
| Date | Polling organisation | LAB | NAT | GRN | NZF | TOP | ACT | SNZ | TEA | IND | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Helen White | Emma Mellow | Nikki Kaye | Chlöe Swarbrick | Denise Roche | Jenny Marcroft | Frank Edwards | Tuariki Delamere | Mika Haka | Felix Poole | Brooke van Velden | Vernon Tava | Dominic Hoffman Dervan | Joshua Love | |||
| 24–30 Sep 2020 | Q+A Colmar Brunton | – style="background-color:#FFB6B6;" | 35 | 30 | N/A | 26 | N/A | 1 | N/A | — | N/A | 4 | N/A | 2 | 1 | 0.4 |
| September 2020 | Newshub Nation–Reid Research | – style="background-color:#FFB6B6;" | 42.3 | 26.6 | N/A | 24.2 | N/A | 2.2 | N/A | 1.0 | N/A | 0.9 | N/A | — | — | — |
| 23 Sep 2017 | 2017 election result | 39.82 | N/A | 45.25 | N/A | 9.72 | N/A | 1.98 | N/A | 2.33 | N/A | 0.52 | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Date | Polling organisation | LAB | NAT | GRN | ACT | NZF | TOP | SNZ | VNZ | SCP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24–30 Sep 2020 | Q+A Colmar Brunton | – style="background-color:#FFB6B6;" | 47 | 28 | 13 | 6 | 1.7 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.3 |
| September 2020 | Newshub Nation–Reid Research | – style="background-color:#FFB6B6;" | 56.2 | 23.1 | 12.1 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 1.4 | — | — | — |
| 23 Sep 2017 | 2017 election result | 37.71 | 39.15 | 13.87 | 1.05 | 3.87 | 3.14 | N/A | N/A | 0.01 |
In a result that was described as extraordinary[27] and as a major election night upset,[28] Swarbrick clinched the election with 35.10% of the vote, defeating second place White by a margin of just +2.97%; Mellow came third. The win was the Green Party's second-ever electorate win, and unlike the party's previous win with Jeanette Fitzsimons in Coromandel in 1999, they had done so without an endorsement from a major party. Swarbrick attributed her success to a strong volunteer campaign; according to her they had "1000 volunteers" and had spoken to "10,000 constituents." Brigette Morten for RNZ said it was "rumoured to [be] 700 volunteers". Green co-leader Marama Davidson said she was "beyond thrilled".[29] Chloe opined that she was confident her "two-tick" campaign had helped to increase the Green party vote.
Predictions of vote-splitting amongst left wing candidates did not come to fruition, with both Swarbrick and White achieving more votes than Mellow.
| Candidate | Candidate vote | % | pp± | Party vote | % | pp± | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Green | Chlöe Swarbrick | 12,631 | 35.10 | – | 6,937 | 19.06 | 5.19 | ||
| Labour | Helen White | 11,563 | 32.13 | 7.42 | 16,751 | 46.02 | 8.31 | ||
| National | Emma Mellow | 9,775 | 27.16 | – | 7,680 | 21.10 | 18.05 | ||
| ACT | Felix Poole | 588 | 1.63 | – | 2,724 | 7.48 | 6.43 | ||
| The Opportunities Party | Tuariki Delamere | 320 | 0.89 | – | 776 | 2.13 | 1.01 | ||
| New Zealand First | Jenny Marcroft | 274 | 0.76 | – | 622 | 1.71 | 2.16 | ||
| New Conservatives | Kevin Stitt | 186 | 0.52 | – | 197 | 0.54 | 0.45 | ||
| Sustainable New Zealand | Vernon Tava | 120 | 0.33 | – | 59 | 0.16 | – | ||
| Independent | Joshua Love | 73 | 0.20 | – | – | ||||
| TEA Party | Dominic Hoffman Dervan | 50 | 0.14 | – | 35 | 0.10 | – | ||
| Independent | Chris Sadler | 23 | 0.06 | – | – | ||||
| Advance NZ | 198 | 0.54 | – | ||||||
| Aotearoa Legalise Cannabis Party | 99 | 0.27 | 0.04 | ||||||
| HeartlandNZ | 1 | 0.00 | – | ||||||
| Māori Party | 111 | 0.30 | 0.11 | ||||||
| NZ Outdoors Party | 15 | 0.05 | 0.02 | ||||||
| ONE Party | 20 | 0.05 | – | ||||||
| Social Credit | 7 | 0.02 | 0.01 | ||||||
| Vision New Zealand | 11 | 0.03 | – | ||||||
| 160 | 0.44 | ||||||||
| 57.19% | 6.18 | 57.85% | 5.64 | ||||||
| 69.34% | 3.24 | ||||||||
The Greens formed a co-operation agreement with Labour who had secured the first majority government since the introduction of MMP.[30]
Swarbrick was the only Green electorate MP for the term of the 53rd Parliament. She would contest the electorate again at the 2023 election, successfully securing re-election. She was joined by two other Green electorate MPs, Tamatha Paul in Wellington Central and Julie Anne Genter in Rongotai.
Swarbrick would go on to become a co-leader of the Green Party in March 2024, after James Shaw resigned the position.[31]
White served as a list MP for the term of the 53rd Parliament before winning Ardern's former seat of Mount Albert in 2023.