Attempted assassination of Mustafa Al-Kadhimi explained

Attempted assassination of Mustafa Al-Kadhimi
Partof:the Iraqi conflict and the aftermath of the 2021 Baghdad clashes
Location:Baghdad, Iraq
Target:Mustafa Al-Kadhimi
Weapons:Drone
Injuries:6 security guards
Fatalities:None
Perp:Unknown
Accused:Iran-backed militias
Motive:Unknown; possibly coup d'état attempt

On 7 November 2021, the Iraqi Armed Forces reported that Prime Minister of Iraq Mustafa Al-Kadhimi survived an assassination attempt that morning. An explosive-laden drone attacked his Baghdad residence while two were shot down. Several members of his security personnel were injured.[1] No one has claimed responsibility, although the general consensus is that it was perpetrated by pro-Iran militias.[2] [3] [4] [5] [6] The assassination attempt was probably connected to the pro-Iran militia supporters who caused the Baghdad clashes two days before.[7] [8] [9] [10] [11]

On 8 November, Kadhimi's office released a statement that the perpetrators were the same people who assassinated Nibras Farman, an agent for the Iraqi National Intelligence Service.[12]

Background

Since the American invasion of Iraq, Iraq has been embroiled in a sectarian conflict between Sunni militants and Shi'a militias, deepening tensions between the two communities. The conflict flared up after IRGC commander Qasem Soleimani was assassinated by the US army, leading to numerous attacks on "US troops, Iraqi armed forces and US-aligned forces",[13] including a missile strike on Erbil International Airport. [14]

On October 10, 2021, elections were held in Iraq, resulting in the re-election of Mustafa al-Kadhimi, the election of Mohammed al-Halbousi as parliamentary speaker, who received backing from a significant proportion of Iraq's Sunni population.[15] In contrast, Shi'ite politicians fared much more poorly, with the amount of seats belonging to Shi'ite Islamist parties dropping by two-thirds.[16]

Following the elections, the pro-Iran parties claimed electoral fraud,[17] leading to a constitutional crisis. Just two days before the attack occurred, supporters of pro-Iranian groups tried to storm the Green Zone, throwing stones at the local security forces, who responded by firing tear gas at them and shooting in the air to disperse the crowd (resulting in the death of one to two demonstrators),[18] [19] heating up tensions between Iraq's political movements.[20] [21]

According to Matthew Zais of the Atlantic Council, Iraqi warlord and the head of Asaib Al-Haq, Qais Khazali, had "described previous attacks against Americans and similarly warned the Iraqi Prime Minister" the day before the drones struck.[22]

On 8 November, a pair of anonymous regional officials and some (also anonymous) militia sources told Reuters that the attack was the fault of Shi'te militias such as Kata'ib Hezbollah or Asaib Ahl al-Haq, also alleging that the weapons used by the perpetrators were made in Iran.[23] [24]

Damage inflicted by the attack

Many parts of Kadhimi's home, including his garage, were damaged by the blast, and at least one explosion was documented.[25] Western diplomats reported hearing the noise of gunfire and explosions inside the Green Zone.[26]

Iraqi government agencies described the perpetrators as using "quadcopter" drones; the same type used by Saraya Awliya al-Dam in the 2021 Erbil rocket attacks. Drones are usually used in the region by pro-Iran militias, since they are hard to be attributed to and allow larger militias and Iran to deny responsibility.[27]

Analysis

Hamdi Malik, who has studied the presence of Shi'te militias in Iraq, described it as a "clear message of 'We can create chaos in Iraq, - we have the guns, we have the means'".

Tallha Abdulrazaq, writing for TRT World, wrote that "the attack can be characterized as a failed coup attempt, and as a pointed and explosive message to Kadhimi and anyone else deemed to be an impediment to the Shia militia's gangster rule in Iraq," arguing that it was a warning sign to scare off Iraq's anti-Iran movement.

Two former and one current United States Defense officials expressed doubt that the assassination attempt was directly the fault of Iran, but did agree the attack was most likely committed by Shi'ite militias.[28]

Two writers for the Jean Jaures Society expressed worries that the strike could "plunge back" Iraq "into chaos in a highly flammable regional and internal context".[29]

Reactions

Inside Iraq

The President of the Republic of Iraq, Barham Salih tweeted that "We [Iraqis] cannot accept that Iraq will be dragged into chaos and a coup against its constitutional system."

From Shi'tes

Many Shi'a clerics and politicians, including Muqtada al-Sadr, denounced what they termed to be a "terrorist attack". Sadr, who had himself gained significant progress during the October elections, called for the Popular Mobilization Forces to "disband," expressing condemnation of efforts by both Iran and the United States to involve themselves in Iraq's affairs. Abu Ali al-Askari, a prominent figure in Kata'ib Hezbollah, charged Sadr with hypocrisy for failing to disarm his own group, Saraya al-Salam.[30] [31]

A few weeks later, Sadr announced he had just dissolved one of his own factions, the Promised Day Brigade.[32]

Amar al-Hakim and Haider al-Abadi were among the Shi'ite leaders who condemned the attack.

Several prominent Shi'ite militia leaders, including Askari and Qais Khazali, dismissed the attack as a fraud, arguing that it was an inside job by the Iraqi government.[33] [34] [35] [36]

The spokesman for Asaib al-Haq, Mahmoud al-Rubaie, tweeted that it was "a fabricated explosion… with the aim of covering up yesterday's crimes and preoccupying public opinion".[37]

From Christians

The Patriarch of the Chaldean Catholics and head of the Chaldean Catholic Church, Louis Raphaël I Sako called for prayers for Iraq and the safety of Prime Minister Mustafa Al-Kadhimi, after the assassination attempt.[38]

From Kurds

Masoud Barzani, former president of Iraqi Kurdistan region expressed his solidarity with Kadhimi in a telephone call.

International

Armenia's foreign ministry tweeted it "strongly condem[ed] the assassination attempt on PM of Iraq Iraqi Prime Minister Mustafa al-Kadhimi," voicing solidarity for Iraq and Iraqi security.[39]

Bahraini heir apparent, Salman bin Hamad Al Khalifa decried the attempted killing of Kadhimi.[40] [41]

The Government's Minister of Foreign Affairs, Mélanie Joly, released an official denouncement of the drone strike.[42]

In a short statement, Wang Wenbin told reporters that China "condemns the targeting of the residence of the Iraqi Prime Minister" and that China "affirms its solidarity with Iraq".[43]

President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi expressed his sympathies to Kadhimi,[44] posting on Facebook, "As I condemn this brute attempt, I pray to Allah to protect him [Kadhimi] and to bring safety and security to Iraq and its people".[45]

France announced that it "rejects in this context any form of destabilization of the country".[46] [47]

The Foreign ministry responded that "Iraq's democratization process must not be undermined by political violence."[48] [49]

Spokesmen for the Lebanese Shi'a paramilitary named it a "treacherous" attack in an interview with the Iraqi News Agency.[50]

The Indian Foreign Affairs spokesman, Arindam Bagchi, saying, "We express our concerns for the casualties caused by the attack and reiterate our support for the democratic process in Iraq."[51]

Ali Shamkhani of the Supreme National Security Council condemned the attack, placing the blame on "foreign think tanks" and the American military presence in Iraq.[52]

Japan named it "an act of terror that undermines democracy in Iraq."[53]

King Abdullah II denounced the attack in a phone call with Kadhimi, expressing his solidarity with Iraq.[54]

Kuwait strongly condemned the strike.[55]

Oman decried the drone strike.[56]

Islamabad denounced the "cowardly attack" on Kadhimi's residence.[57]

The Ministry of Foreign Affairs responded that "[Poland] reject[s] all destabilisation attempts, acts of terror and actions aimed against the democratisation process in the Republic of Iraq."

Qatar denounced the "act of terrorism targeting the Iraqi state".[58]

The government slammed the attack, naming it a "brazen act of terrorism".

The Kingdom's Foreign Ministry released a statement deeming the attempt as a "cowardly terrorist act", assuring that it "stands united by the brotherly Iraq, Government, and people, in confronting all terrorists who are trying in vain to prevent brotherly Iraq from restoring its health and role".

The Foreign and Expatriates Ministry denounced the attack.[59]

Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu decried the attack in a telephone call with Kadhimi.[60] president Recep Tayyip Erdoğan wrote a letter to Al-Kadhimi, saying, "It is with great sadness that I learned of the terrorist attack on your residence in Baghdad."[61]

The country's foreign ministry responded it was "convinced that such acts of terror and violence will not impede embodiment of the aspirations of the Iraqi people and will not stop their government's efforts to build a sovereign, democratic and prosperous state."[62]

The foreign ministry condemned the attack it described as "contrary to ethical and humanitarian values and principles."

Foreign Secretary Liz Truss condemned the attack on behalf of the British government.[63] Prime Minister Boris Johnson expressed his "sympathies to those injured".

The President of the United States, Joe Biden voiced strong opposition to the airstrikes, expressing his relief for the news that Kadhimi was unhurt.[64] [65]

Pope Francis denounced the assassination attempt, terming it "a vile act of terrorism".[66]

Supranational

Jens Stoltenberg, the Secretary-General of NATO, issued a denouncement of the attack.

The United Nations Assistance Mission for Iraq condemned the drone strike "in the strongest terms".[68] [69]

Misinformation

Since the drone strike, various media channels and movements have encouraged conspiracy theories related to the assassination attempt.[70]

An Iraqi commentator accused U.S. forces of "purposefully deactivating the Green Zone's anti-aircraft system so the attackers could get away with the strike."

Other Shi'a militias released a dossier on Telegram arguing that it was a false-flag strike and that an image of a drone used was actually a "French drone", despite the fact that the munition found at the attack had no traces to France whatsoever. The dossier also puts forth a fake photo showing the traces of an American plane, the MC-12W Liberty, but scholars discovered that the image was forged.

Notes and References

  1. News: Iraqi PM safe after drone attack on residence, military says . Reuters . 7 November 2021 . . 7 November 2021 . Davison . John . Rasheed . Ahmed . 7 November 2021 . https://web.archive.org/web/20211107003818/https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/drone-attack-targets-iraq-pm-who-escapes-unhurt-iraq-military-2021-11-07/ . live .
  2. News: Abdulrazaq. Tallha. Drone attack on Iraqi PM reveals menacing reach of Shia militias. TRT World.
  3. Web site: 8 November 2021. Experts React: Assassination attempt on Iraq's prime minister. 10 November 2021. Atlantic Council. en-US.
  4. Web site: 7 November 2021. Drone attack by militants on Iraqi PM 'marks escalation' in power struggle. 10 November 2021. the Guardian. en.
  5. Web site: Is Iran behind the drone attack against Iraqi PM? - analysis. 2021-11-18. The Jerusalem Post. en-US.
  6. Web site: KRG PM Barzani attends regional security forum in Bahrain. 2021-11-20. Rudaw.
  7. Web site: Quinn. Colm. Iraq's Kadhimi Survives Assassination Attempt. 10 November 2021. Foreign Policy. en-US.
  8. Web site: Iran Tries To Distance Itself From Assassination Attempt On Iraq's President. live. https://web.archive.org/web/20211107143014/https://www.iranintl.com/en/20211107418763. 7 November 2021. 10 November 2021. Iran International. en.
  9. News: 7 November 2021. Iraqi PM al-Kadhimi survives drone attack on his home. BBC News. live. 7 November 2021. https://web.archive.org/web/20211107144955/https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-59195399. 7 November 2021.
  10. News: Reuters. 8 November 2021. Iran-backed militia staged drone attack on Iraqi PM - officials. en. Reuters. live. 8 November 2021. https://web.archive.org/web/20211108123150/https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iran-backed-militia-behind-attack-iraqi-pm-sources-2021-11-08/. 8 November 2021.
  11. Web site: Abdulrazaq. Tallha. Drone attack on Iraqi PM reveals menacing reach of Shia militias. live. https://web.archive.org/web/20211110000744/https://www.trtworld.com/opinion/drone-attack-on-iraqi-pm-reveals-menacing-reach-of-shia-militias-51479. 10 November 2021. 9 November 2021. TRT World. en.
  12. Web site: Iraqi PM says have identified perpetrators of drone assassination attempt. 11 November 2021. WION. en.
  13. Web site: The growing threat facing Israel from Iraq. 2021-11-19. The Jerusalem Post. en-US.
  14. Web site: Why Iraqi - not Iranian - militias are behind attempt on PM's life. 2021-11-18. The Jerusalem Post. en-US.
  15. Web site: Sunnis back party of Iraq's youngest-ever parliamentary speaker - Al-Monitor: The Pulse of the Middle East. 2021-11-18. Al-Monitor. en.
  16. Web site: 2021-11-08. Powerful Iranian general visited Iraq after attack on PM. 2021-11-18. AP News. en.
  17. Web site: After surviving drone assassination attempt, Iraq PM urges 'calm and restraint'. 2021-11-19. Times of Israel. en-US.
  18. News: Davison. John. Rasheed. Ahmed. 2021-11-07. Iraqi PM safe after drone attack on residence, military says. en. Reuters. 2021-11-19.
  19. Web site: O'Connor. Tom. 2021-11-19. Iraq resistance warns it's ready to expel U.S. by force at end of year. 2021-11-20. Newsweek. en.
  20. News: 8 November 2021. Iraq PM says his would-be assassins have been identified. en-GB. BBC News. 10 November 2021.
  21. Web site: 7 November 2021. Iraqi Prime Minister survives armed drone attack on his home. 10 November 2021. euronews. en.
  22. Web site: Peek. Andrew. Slavin. Barbara. Pfaff. Anthony. Warrick. Thomas. Zais. Matthew. Sales. Nathan. 8 November 2021. Experts React: Assassination attempt on Iraq's prime minister. 10 November 2021. Atlantic Council. en-US.
  23. News: Reuters. 8 November 2021. Iran-backed militia staged drone attack on Iraqi PM - officials. en. Reuters. 8 November 2021.
  24. Web site: Iran-Backed Militia Behind Attack On Iraqi PM, Sources Say. 2021-11-20. Iran International. en.
  25. Web site: Poland condemns attack on Iraqi prime minister. 10 November 2021. www.thefirstnews.com. en.
  26. News: 2021-11-07. Iraq's PM survives assassination bid by 'explosives-laden' drone. en-AU. ABC News. 2021-11-19.
  27. Web site: Drones Pose New Challenge to Iraqi Security. 2021-11-20. Voice Of America. en.
  28. Web site: Iran likely did not order drone attack on Iraqi prime minister, current, former U.S. officials say. NBC News.
  29. Web site: Irak : quelles perspectives après les élections législatives ?. 2021-11-20. Fondation Jean-Jaurès. fr-FR.
  30. Web site: 2021-11-18. Iraqi Shiite cleric calls on pro-Iran militias to disband. 2021-11-18. Federal News Network. en-US.
  31. News: Reuters. 2021-11-18. Iraqi cleric Sadr urges militias to purge 'undisciplined' members. en. Reuters. 2021-11-19.
  32. News: Reuters. 2021-11-19. Iraqi cleric Sadr says he is dissolving armed faction loyal to him. en. Reuters. 2021-11-19.
  33. Web site: 'Cowardly terrorist attack' on Iraqi PM Al Kadhimi condemned around the world. live. https://web.archive.org/web/20211108154440/https://www.thenationalnews.com/mena/2021/11/07/cowardly-terrorist-attack-on-iraq-pm-al-kadhimi-condemned-around-world/. 8 November 2021. 9 November 2021. The National. 7 November 2021 .
  34. Web site: Abdul-zahra. Qassim. 6 November 2021. Failed assassination bid against Iraq PM ramps up tension. live. 9 November 2021. CTVNews. en. 7 November 2021. https://web.archive.org/web/20211107162237/https://www.ctvnews.ca/world/failed-assassination-bid-against-iraq-pm-ramps-up-tension-1.5655534.
  35. News: Kataib Hezbollah dismisses suggestions that Iraqi groups behind attack on PM. U.S. News & World Report. 9 November 2021. 10 November 2021. https://web.archive.org/web/20211110000659/https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2021-11-07/kataib-hezbollah-dismisses-suggestions-that-iraqi-groups-behind-attack-on-pm. live.
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  37. Web site: 7 November 2021. Iraqi militia Asaib Ahl al-Haq says Kadhimi assassination attempt 'fabricated'. 11 November 2021. Al Arabiya English. en.
  38. News: البطريرك ساكو يدعو إلى الصلاة من أجل العراق وسلامة الكاظمي. 10 November 2021. www.nasnews.com. en.
  39. Web site: Armenia stands in solidarity with Iraq in the fights against terrorism – MFA. 2021-11-20. Public Radio of Armenia. en-US.
  40. Web site: Bahrain News Agency. 9 November 2021. www.bna.bh. 2 September 2019. https://web.archive.org/web/20190902233604/https://www.bna.bh/en/index.aspx. live.
  41. News: Russia, Turkey condemn assassination attempt on Iraqi Prime Minister. Al-Monitor.
  42. Web site: 7 November 2021. Canada strongly condemns attempted assassination of Iraqi prime minister. 8 November 2021. www.canada.ca. 8 November 2021. https://web.archive.org/web/20211108014830/https://www.canada.ca/en/global-affairs/news/2021/11/canada-strongly-condemns-attempted-assassination-of-iraqi-prime-minister.html. live.
  43. Web site: China condemns attempt target Al-Kadhimi. live. 9 November 2021. Iraqi News Agency. 10 November 2021. https://web.archive.org/web/20211110000649/https://ina.iq/eng/15339-china-condemns-attempt-target-al-kadhimi.html.
  44. Web site: Saudi Arabia condemns 'cowardly terrorist act' against Iraq's Al-Kadhimi. live. 8 November 2021. ANI News. en. 8 November 2021. https://web.archive.org/web/20211108154150/https://www.aninews.in/news/world/others/saudi-arabia-condemns-cowardly-terrorist-act-against-iraqs-al-kadhimi20211107151045/.
  45. Web site: 7 November 2021. Egypt's Sisi condemns assassination attempt on Iraqi Prime Minister Mustafa Al-Kadhimi. live. 8 November 2021. Egypt Today. 10 November 2021. https://web.archive.org/web/20211110000646/https://www.egypttoday.com/Article/1/109633/Egypt%E2%80%99s-Sisi-condemns-assassination-attempt-on-Iraqi-Prime-Minister-Mustafa.
  46. Web site: 7 November 2021. France condemns attempted assassination of Iraq's PM. live. 9 November 2021. Al Arabiya English. en. 7 November 2021. https://web.archive.org/web/20211107103110/https://english.alarabiya.net/News/middle-east/2021/11/07/France-condemns-attempted-assassination-of-Iraq-s-PM.
  47. Web site: Iraq - Attempted assassination of Iraqi Prime Minister Mustafa Al-Kadhimi (07 November 2021). 10 November 2021. Ministry for Europe and Foreign Affairs. en.
  48. Web site: 7 November 2021. Iraq: Prime minister unhurt after assassination attempt by drone DW 7 November 2021. live. 9 November 2021. Deutsche Welle. en-GB. 7 November 2021. https://web.archive.org/web/20211107221902/https://www.dw.com/en/iraq-prime-minister-unhurt-after-assassination-attempt-by-drone/a-59744757.
  49. Web site: Statement by spokesperson of the German Federal Foreign Office on the drone attack in Iraq. live. 9 November 2021. German Federal Foreign Office. en. 10 November 2021. https://web.archive.org/web/20211110000805/https://www.auswaertiges-amt.de/en/newsroom/news/drone-attack-iraq/2494554.
  50. Web site: Lebanese Hezbollah condemns attack on Al-Kadhimi. 2021-11-19. Iraqi News Agency.
  51. Web site: 10 November 2021. India condemns assassination attempt on Iraqi PM Mustafa al-Kadhimi. 10 November 2021. The Times of India. en.
  52. Web site: Iran blames 'foreign think tanks' for assassination bid on Iraqi premier. live. 8 November 2021. Anadolu Agency. 7 November 2021. https://web.archive.org/web/20211107112731/https://www.aa.com.tr/en/middle-east/iran-blames-foreign-think-tanks-for-assassination-bid-on-iraqi-premier/2414236.
  53. Web site: Attack targeting the residence of Iraqi Prime Minister Al-Kadhimi (Statement by Press Secretary YOSHIDA Tomoyuki). 10 November 2021. Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Japan. en.
  54. Web site: Jordan's king denounces assassination attempt in Iraq. live. 9 November 2021. ANI News. en. 10 November 2021. https://web.archive.org/web/20211110000742/https://www.aninews.in/news/world/asia/jordans-king-denounces-assassination-attempt-in-iraq20211107215213/.
  55. Web site: 7 November 2021. Iraq PM assassination bid fails; Kuwait condemns attempt. live. 9 November 2021. Arab Times. en-US. 8 November 2021. https://web.archive.org/web/20211108075256/https://www.arabtimesonline.com/news/iraq-pm-assassination-bid-fails-kuwait-condemns-attempt/.
  56. Web site: Oman denounces Al-Kadhimi assassination attempt. 10 November 2021. Iraqi News Agency.
  57. Web site: 2021-11-07. Pakistan condemns assassination attempt by armed drone on Iraqi prime minister. 2021-11-19. Arab News PK. en.
  58. Web site: Qatar, UAE condemn terrorist attack targeted al-Kadhimi. live. 9 November 2021. Iraqi News Agency. 10 November 2021. https://web.archive.org/web/20211110000649/https://ina.iq/eng/15281-qatar-uae-condemn-terrorist-attack-targeted-al-kadhimi.html.
  59. Web site: 2021-11-08. Syria Strongly Condemns Terrorist Attack Against Iraqi PM Kadhimi. 2021-11-19. The Syrian Observer.
  60. Web site: 8 November 2021. FM Çavuşoğlu condoles Iraqi PM al-Kadhimi over Baghdad attack. live. 9 November 2021. Daily Sabah. en-US. 10 November 2021. https://web.archive.org/web/20211110000747/https://www.dailysabah.com/politics/diplomacy/fm-cavusoglu-condoles-iraqi-pm-al-kadhimi-over-baghdad-attack.
  61. Web site: Erdoğan sends letter to Iraqi premier condemning terror attack - Turkey News. 11 November 2021. Hürriyet Daily News. 11 November 2021 . en.
  62. Web site: Ukraine condemns assassination attempt on Iraqi PM. 2021-11-22. Ukrinform. 8 November 2021 . en.
  63. News: 7 November 2021. Foreign Secretary statement on attack on Iraq Prime Minister. GOV.UK. Foreign, Commonwealth & Development Office. 7 November 2021. 7 November 2021. https://web.archive.org/web/20211107104508/https://www.gov.uk/government/news/foreign-secretary-statement-on-attack-on-iraq-prime-minister. live.
  64. Web site: Oshin. Olafimihan. 7 November 2021. Biden condemns attempted assassination of top Iraqi official. live. 7 November 2021. TheHill. en. 7 November 2021. https://web.archive.org/web/20211107193124/https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/580458-biden-condemns-attempted-assassination-of-top-iraqi-official.
  65. Web site: Condemning the Reported Attack Targeting the Residence of Prime Minister Kadhimi. live. https://web.archive.org/web/20211108045543/https://www.state.gov/condemning-the-reported-attack-targeting-the-residence-of-prime-minister-kadhimi/. 8 November 2021. 8 November 2021. United States Department of State. en.
  66. News: Reuters. 9 November 2021. Pope condemns attack on Iraqi PM as vile act of terrorism. en. Reuters. 9 November 2021. 9 November 2021. https://web.archive.org/web/20211109215125/https://www.reuters.com/world/pope-condemns-attack-iraqi-pm-vile-act-terrorism-2021-11-09/. live.
  67. Web site: 7 November 2021. European allies condemn drone attack on Iraqi PM. live. 9 November 2021. POLITICO. en-US. 8 November 2021. https://web.archive.org/web/20211108094442/https://www.politico.eu/article/drone-attack-iraq-prime-minister-mustafa-al-kadhimi-home-condemnation/.
  68. News: 8 November 2021. UN condemns assassination attempt on Iraqi PM 'in the strongest terms'. Business Standard India. 9 November 2021. 8 November 2021. https://web.archive.org/web/20211108081950/https://www.business-standard.com/article/international/un-condemns-assassination-attempt-on-iraqi-pm-in-the-strongest-terms-121110800127_1.html. live.
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