1987 Asturian regional election explained

Election Name:1987 Asturian regional election
Country:Asturias
Type:parliamentary
Ongoing:no
Previous Election:1983 Asturian regional election
Previous Year:1983
Next Election:1991 Asturian regional election
Next Year:1991
Seats For Election:All 45 seats in the General Junta of the Principality of Asturias
Majority Seats:23
Opinion Polls:
  1. Opinion polls
Registered:874,310
Turnout:582,077 (66.6%)
1.6 pp
Election Date:10 June 1987
Leader1:Pedro de Silva
Party1:Asturian Socialist Federation
Leader Since1:15 March 1983
Leaders Seat1:Central
Last Election1:26 seats, 52.0%
Seats1:20
Seat Change1:6
Popular Vote1:223,307
Percentage1:38.9%
Swing1:13.1 pp
Leader2:Isidro Fernández Rozada
Party2:People's Alliance (Spain)
Leader Since2:1983
Leaders Seat2:Central
Last Election2:14 seats, 30.2%
Seats2:13
Seat Change2:1
Popular Vote2:144,541
Percentage2:25.2%
Swing2:5.0 pp
Leader3:Alejandro Rebollo
Party3:Democratic and Social Centre (Spain)
Leader Since3:1987
Leaders Seat3:Central
Last Election3:0 seats, 3.5%
Seats3:8
Seat Change3:8
Popular Vote3:106,266
Percentage3:18.5%
Swing3:15.0 pp
Leader4:Francisco Javier Suárez
Party4:IU
Colour4:732021
Leader Since4:1983
Leaders Seat4:Central
Last Election4:5 seats, 11.1%
Seats4:4
Seat Change4:1
Popular Vote4:69,413
Percentage4:12.1%
Swing4:1.0 pp
Map Size:350px
President
Before Election:Pedro de Silva
Before Party:Asturian Socialist Federation
After Election:Pedro de Silva
After Party:Asturian Socialist Federation

The 1987 Asturian regional election was held on Wednesday, 10 June 1987, to elect the 2nd General Junta of the Principality of Asturias. All 45 seats in the General Junta were up for election. The election was held simultaneously with regional elections in twelve other autonomous communities and local elections all throughout Spain, as well as the 1987 European Parliament election.

The Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE) of incumbent President Pedro de Silva remained the most-voted party, but lost 13 percentage points as well as the absolute majority it had enjoyed in the previous legislature. The internal crisis within the People's Coalition after the breakup of the People's Democratic Party (PDP) from the alliance resulted in the People's Alliance (AP) standing alone in the election, losing 25,000 votes and 5 percentage points.

Disenchanted voters with the Socialist government that did not see AP as a credible opposition alternative went on to centrist Democratic and Social Centre (CDS), which saw a significant increase of its vote share and entered the General Junta with 8 seats. United Left (IU), the new incarnation of the Communist Party of Spain and its allies, lost 1 seat despite achieving more votes than in 1983.

Overview

Electoral system

The General Junta of the Principality of Asturias was the devolved, unicameral legislature of the autonomous community of Asturias, having legislative power in regional matters as defined by the Spanish Constitution and the Asturian Statute of Autonomy, as well as the ability to vote confidence in or withdraw it from a regional president.[1]

Voting for the General Junta was on the basis of universal suffrage, which comprised all nationals over 18 years of age, registered in Asturias and in full enjoyment of their political rights. The 45 members of the General Junta of the Principality of Asturias were elected using the D'Hondt method and a closed list proportional representation, with an electoral threshold of three percent of valid votes—which included blank ballots—being applied in each constituency. Seats were allocated to constituencies, which were established by law as follows:

Each constituency was allocated an initial minimum of two seats, with the remaining 39 being distributed in proportion to their populations.[2]

The use of the D'Hondt method might result in a higher effective threshold, depending on the district magnitude.[3]

Election date

The term of the General Junta of the Principality of Asturias expired four years after the date of its previous election. The election decree was required to be issued no later than the twenty-fifth day prior to the date of expiry of parliament and published on the following day in the Official Gazette of the Principality of Asturias (BOPA), with election day taking place between the fifty-fourth and the sixtieth day from publication and set so as to make it coincide with elections to the regional assemblies of other autonomous communities. The previous election was held on 8 May 1983, which meant that the legislature's term would have expired on 8 May 1987. The election decree was required to be published in the BOPA no later than 14 April 1987, with the election taking place no later than the sixtieth day from publication, setting the latest possible election date for the General Junta on Saturday, 13 June 1987.[1] [2] [4]

The General Junta could not be dissolved before the date of expiry of parliament except in the event of an investiture process failing to elect a regional president within a two-month period from the first ballot. In such a case, the General Junta was to be automatically dissolved and a snap election called, with elected deputies merely serving out what remained of their four-year terms.[1]

Parliamentary composition

The General Junta of the Principality of Asturias was officially dissolved on 14 April 1987, after the publication of the dissolution decree in the Official Gazette of the Principality of Asturias.[5] The table below shows the composition of the parliamentary groups in the General Junta at the time of dissolution.[6]

Groups! rowspan="2" colspan="2"
PartiesLegislators
SeatsTotal
Socialist Parliamentary GroupPSOE2727
People's Parliamentary GroupAP1010
People's Parliamentary GroupPCA–PCE44
Mixed Parliamentary GroupPDP34
INDEP1

Parties and candidates

The electoral law allowed for parties and federations registered in the interior ministry, coalitions and groupings of electors to present lists of candidates. Parties and federations intending to form a coalition ahead of an election were required to inform the relevant Electoral Commission within ten days of the election call, whereas groupings of electors needed to secure the signature of at least one percent of the electorate in the constituencies for which they sought election, disallowing electors from signing for more than one list of candidates.[2] [4]

Below is a list of the main parties and electoral alliances which contested the election:

CandidacyParties and
alliances
Leading candidateIdeologyPrevious result
Votes (%)Seats
PSOEPedro de SilvaSocial democracy51.96%
APIsidro Fernández RozadaConservatism
National conservatism
30.23%
PDPCelestino de NicolásChristian democracy
IUFrancisco Javier SuárezSocialism
Communism
11.13%
CDSAlejandro RebolloCentrism
Liberalism
3.45%

Opinion polls

The tables below list opinion polling results in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first and using the dates when the survey fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. Where the fieldwork dates are unknown, the date of publication is given instead. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed with its background shaded in the leading party's colour. If a tie ensues, this is applied to the figures with the highest percentages. The "Lead" column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the parties with the highest percentages in a poll.

Voting intention estimates

The table below lists weighted voting intention estimates. Refusals are generally excluded from the party vote percentages, while question wording and the treatment of "don't know" responses and those not intending to vote may vary between polling organisations. When available, seat projections determined by the polling organisations are displayed below (or in place of) the percentages in a smaller font; 23 seats were required for an absolute majority in the General Junta of the Principality of Asturias.

Voting preferences

The table below lists raw, unweighted voting preferences.

Victory preferences

The table below lists opinion polling on the victory preferences for each party in the event of a regional election taking place.

Victory likelihood

The table below lists opinion polling on the perceived likelihood of victory for each party in the event of a regional election taking place.

Preferred President

The table below lists opinion polling on leader preferences to become president of the Principality of Asturias.

Results

Overall

← Summary of the 10 June 1987 General Junta of the Principality of Asturias election results →
Parties and alliancesPopular voteSeats
Votes%±ppTotal+/−
Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE)223,307 38.91 –13.0520 –6
People's Alliance (AP)1144,541 25.18 –5.0513 –1
Democratic and Social Centre (CDS)106,266 18.52 +15.078 +8
United Left (IU)269,413 12.09 +0.964 –1
Asturianist Party (PAS)7,348 1.28 New0 ±0
Workers' Party of Spain–Communist Unity (PTE–UC)4,875 0.85 New0 ±0
People's Democratic Party (PDP)3,606 0.63 New0 ±0
Asturian Nationalist Ensame (ENA)2,809 0.49 +0.050 ±0
Workers' Socialist Party (PST)2,493 0.43 –0.400 ±0
Humanist Platform (PH)1,251 0.22 New0 ±0
Spanish Phalanx of the CNSO (FE–JONS)957 0.17 New0 ±0
Blank ballots7,076 1.23 +0.82
Total573,942 45 ±0
Valid votes573,942 98.60 –0.74
Invalid votes8,135 1.40 +0.74
Votes cast / turnout582,077 66.58 +1.54
Abstentions292,233 33.42 –1.54
Registered voters874,310
Sources[14] [15]

Distribution by constituency

ConstituencyPSOEAPCDSIU
data-sort-type="number"%data-sort-type="number"Sdata-sort-type="number"%data-sort-type="number"Sdata-sort-type="number"%data-sort-type="number"Sdata-sort-type="number"%data-sort-type="number"S
Central37.01323.6819.9713.64
Eastern44.3335.3213.63.7
Western45.9427.8313.818.7
Total38.92025.21318.5812.14
Sources

Aftermath

Investiture
Ballot →22 June 198724 June 1987
Required majority →23 out of 45Simple
Absentees
Sources[16]

References

Opinion poll sources
Other

Notes and References

  1. Ley Orgánica 7/1981, de 30 de diciembre, de Estatuto de Autonomía del Principado de Asturias] ]. Organic Law . 7 . . es . 30 December 1981 . 14 March 2017.
  2. Ley 14/1986, de 26 de diciembre, sobre régimen de elecciones a la Junta General del Principado de Asturias . Law . 14 . Boletín Oficial del Estado . es . 26 December 1986 . 14 March 2017.
  3. Web site: Gallagher . Michael . 30 July 2012 . Effective threshold in electoral systems . https://web.archive.org/web/20170730092518/http://www.tcd.ie/Political_Science/staff/michael_gallagher/ElSystems/Docts/effthresh.php . dead . 30 July 2017 . Trinity College, Dublin . 22 July 2017.
  4. Ley Orgánica 5/1985, de 19 de junio, del Régimen Electoral General . Organic Law . 5 . Boletín Oficial del Estado . es . 19 June 1985 . 28 December 2016.
  5. Boletín Oficial del Estado . 89 . 14 April 1987 . 11164 . 0212-033X . Decreto del Presidente 2/1987, de 13 de abril, por el que se convocan elecciones a la Junta General del Principado de Asturias . es.
  6. Web site: Elecciones a la Junta General del Principado de Asturias (1983 - 2019) . es . Historia Electoral.com . 27 September 2017.
  7. Web site: Los suaristas irrumpen con fuerza en el Parlamento regional . es . El País . 4 June 1987.
  8. Web site: Una encuesta de AP pronostica un fuerte descenso del PSOE en las municipales . es . ABC . 17 April 1987.
  9. Web site: Notable descenso del PSOE en los próximos comicios, según una encuesta encargada por AP . es . ABC Sevilla . 17 April 1987.
  10. Web site: Preelectoral municipales y autonómicas del Principado de Asturias 1987 (IV) (Estudio nº 1657. Mayo 1987) . es . CIS . 5 June 1987.
  11. Web site: Preelectoral municipales y autonómicas del Principado de Asturias 1987 (III) (Estudio nº 1633. Mayo 1987) . es . CIS . 16 May 1987.
  12. Web site: Preelectoral municipales y autonómicas del Principado de Asturias 1987 (II) (Estudio nº 1616. Abril 1987) . es . CIS . 15 April 1987.
  13. Web site: Preelectoral municipales y autonómicas del Principado de Asturias 1987 (I) (Estudio nº 1572. Febrero 1987) . es . CIS . 26 February 1987.
  14. Web site: General Junta of the Principality of Asturias election results, 10 June 1987 . 28 November 1987 . es . www.juntaelectoralcentral.es . Electoral Commission of Asturias . 8 December 2019 . 28 January 2018 . https://web.archive.org/web/20180128074726/http://www.juntaelectoralcentral.es/cs/jec/documentos/ASTURIAS_1987_ResultadosyElectos . dead .
  15. Web site: Number 75. Audit report on the regularity of electoral accounting derived from the elections held on June 10, 1987 . es . tcu.es . Court of Auditors . 8 December 2019.
  16. News: 25 July 1987 . Elegidos los presidentes autonómicos de La Rioja, Asturias y Cantabria . es . El País . 9 December 2019.