2018 Arizona gubernatorial election explained

Election Name:	2018 Arizona gubernatorial election
Country:	Arizona
Type:	presidential
Ongoing:	no
Previous Election:	2014 Arizona gubernatorial election
Previous Year:	2014
Next Election:	2022 Arizona gubernatorial election
Next Year:	2022
Election Date:	November 6, 2018
Image1:	File:DougDucey (cropped).jpg
Nominee1:	Doug Ducey
Party1:	Republican Party (United States)
Popular Vote1:	1,330,863
Percentage1:	56.00%
Nominee2:	David Garcia
Party2:	Democratic Party (United States)
Popular Vote2:	994,341
Percentage2:	41.84%
Map Size:	210px
Governor
Before Election:	Doug Ducey
Before Party:	Republican Party (United States)
After Election:	Doug Ducey
After Party:	Republican Party (United States)
Turnout:	64.85% 17.33pp ^[1]

The 2018 Arizona gubernatorial election took place on November 6, 2018, to elect the Governor of Arizona, concurrently with the election of Arizona's Class I U.S. Senate seat, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections.

The primary was held on August 28.^[2] Despite considerably closer contests in other Arizona state elections, which included Democratic gains for U.S. Senate, Secretary of State, and Superintendent of Public Instruction, incumbent Governor Doug Ducey won a second term, with a slightly increased majority from his 2014 win and the largest margin of victory of any statewide candidate on the ballot. This was the first Arizona gubernatorial election since 1990 in which the winner was of the same party as the incumbent U.S. president.

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee

• Doug Ducey, incumbent governor^[3]

Eliminated in primary

• Ken Bennett, former secretary of state of Arizona^{[4] [5]}
• Robert Weber (write-in)^[6]

Results

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee

• David Garcia, Arizona State University professor and nominee for Superintendent of Public Instruction in 2014^{[7] [8]}

Eliminated in primary

• Mirza Fareed "Fareed" Baig (write-in)^[6]
• Steve Farley, state senator^[9]
• Kelly Fryer, nonprofit executive and activist^[10]

Declined

• Terry Goddard, former Arizona Attorney General and nominee for governor in 2010 and 1990^[11]
• Kyrsten Sinema, U.S. Representative (running for U.S. Senate)^[12]
• Greg Stanton, Mayor of Phoenix (running for AZ-09)^{[13] [14]}

Polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Steve Farley	Kelly Fryer	David Garcia	Undecided
OH Predictive Insights	August 14–15, 2018	589	± 4.0%	25%	7%	align=center	40%	28%
Data Orbital	June 25–27, 2018	550	± 4.2%	11%	6%	align=center	33%	align=center	49%
Emerson College	June 21–22, 2018	260	± 6.2%	13%	8%	align=center	30%	align=center	48%
Garin-Hart-Yang (D-Garcia)	May 21–23, 2018	400	± 5.0%	11%	11%	align=center	32%	align=center	46%
Public Policy Polling (D-Garcia)	January 5–7, 2018	446	–	22%	–	align=center	43%	36%

Results

Libertarian primary

Candidates

Disqualified

• Jeff Funicello, activist^[15]
• Barry Hess (write-in)^[6]
• Kevin McCormick,^[6] candidate for president in 2016^{[16] [17]}

Endorsements

Green primary

Candidates

Nominee

• Angel Torres^[18] (write-in)^[6]

Eliminated in primary

• Noah Dyer^[18] (write-in)^[6]

Results

Independents

Candidates

Disqualified

• Noah Dyer, author, businessman and educator^{[19] [20]}
• Christian R. Komor, author, psychologist, climate scientist^[21]

Declined

• Tim Jeffries, former director of the Arizona Department of Economic Security^[22]

General election

Debates

Dates	Location	Ducey	Garcia	Link
September 24, 2018	Tempe, Arizona	Participant	Participant	align=left	Full debate – YouTube
September 25, 2018	Tucson, Arizona	Participant	Participant	align=left	Full debate – C-SPAN

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
The Cook Political Report^[23]		October 26, 2018
The Washington Post^[24]		November 5, 2018
FiveThirtyEight^[25]		November 5, 2018
Rothenberg Political Report^[26]		November 1, 2018
Sabato's Crystal Ball^[27]		November 5, 2018
RealClearPolitics^[28]		November 4, 2018
Daily Kos^[29]		November 5, 2018
Fox News^[30]		November 5, 2018
Politico^[31]		November 5, 2018
Governing^[32]		November 5, 2018

Polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Doug Ducey (R)	David Garcia (D)	Angel Torres (G)	Other	Undecided
HarrisX	November 3–5, 2018	600	± 4.0%	align=center	53%	39%	–	–	–
HarrisX	November 2–4, 2018	600	± 4.0%	align=center	55%	37%	–	–	–
Emerson College	November 1–3, 2018	758	± 3.7%	align=center	55%	40%	–	–	5%
HarrisX	November 1–3, 2018	600	± 4.0%	align=center	57%	36%	–	–	–
Research Co.	November 1–3, 2018	450	± 4.6%	align=center	54%	39%	–	2%	5%
HarrisX	October 31 – November 2, 2018	600	± 4.0%	align=center	56%	37%	–	–	–
Gravis Marketing	October 24 – November 2, 2018	1,165	± 2.9%	align=center	53%	40%	–	–	7%
HarrisX	October 30 – November 1, 2018	600	± 4.0%	align=center	57%	36%	–	–	–
HarrisX	October 29–31, 2018	600	± 4.0%	align=center	54%	37%	–	–	–
Vox Populi Polling	October 27–30, 2018	677	± 3.7%	align=center	54%	46%	–	–	–
HarrisX	October 24–30, 2018	1,400	± 2.6%	align=center	57%	35%	–	–	–
Fox News	October 27–29, 2018	643 LV	± 3.5%	align=center	55%	37%	–	2%	5%
		710 RV	± 3.5%	align=center	54%	35%	–	3%	7%
CNN/SSRS	October 24–29, 2018	702 LV	± 4.4%	align=center	52%	45%	–	0%	1%
		867 RV	± 4.0%	align=center	52%	43%	–	0%	3%
HighGround Public Affairs	October 26–28, 2018	400	± 4.9%	align=center	55%	35%	4%	–	7%
Marist College	October 23–27, 2018	506 LV	± 5.4%	align=center	54%	40%	5%	<1%	2%
				align=center	55%	42%	–	1%	1%
		793 RV	± 4.4%	align=center	54%	38%	5%	<1%	3%
				align=center	55%	41%	–	1%	3%
YouGov	October 23–26, 2018	972	± 4.1%	align=center	52%	41%	–	1%	5%
Ipsos	October 17–26, 2018	799	± 4.0%	align=center	57%	37%	–	2%	3%
OH Predictive Insights	October 22–23, 2018	600	± 4.0%	align=center	57%	39%	1%	–	3%
Change Research (D-Garcia)	October 9–10, 2018	783	–	align=center	47%	40%	–	–	11%
OH Predictive Insights	October 3, 2018	600	± 4.0%	align=center	54%	37%	2%	–	7%
Data Orbital	October 1–3, 2018	550	± 4.2%	align=center	52%	34%	2%	2%	9%
Fox News	September 29 – October 2, 2018	716 LV	± 3.5%	align=center	55%	37%	–	1%	7%
		806 RV	± 3.5%	align=center	54%	35%	–	2%	9%
Vox Populi Polling	September 29 – October 1, 2018	702	± 3.5%	align=center	57%	43%	–	–	–
Suffolk University	September 27–30, 2018	500	± 4.4%	align=center	50%	38%	2%	0%	10%
Latino Decisions	September 10–25, 2018	463 LV	–	align=center	45%	40%	–	–	15%
		610 RV	–	align=center	41%	37%	–	–	19%
Emerson College	September 19–21, 2018	650	± 4.4%	align=center	42%	38%	–	6%	14%
Marist College	September 16–20, 2018	564 LV	± 4.7%	align=center	49%	39%	6%	<1%	6%
				align=center	51%	43%	–	<1%	5%
		763 RV	± 4.2%	align=center	48%	37%	7%	<1%	7%
				align=center	51%	42%	–	1%	6%
CNN/SSRS	September 11–15, 2018	761 LV	± 4.3%	align=center	49%	46%	–	0%	2%
		854 RV	± 4.1%	align=center	48%	45%	–	1%	4%
Ipsos	September 5–14, 2018	1,016	± 4.0%	align=center	51%	39%	–	4%	7%
TargetSmart (D-ProgressNow AZ)	September 8–13, 2018	800	± 4.0%	align=center	49%	48%	–	0%	3%
Fox News	September 8–11, 2018	710 LV	± 3.5%	align=center	51%	40%	–	1%	8%
		801 RV	± 3.5%	align=center	49%	39%	–	1%	10%
Gravis Marketing	September 5–7, 2018	882	± 3.3%	align=center	48%	44%	–	–	9%
Data Orbital	September 4–6, 2018	550	± 4.2%	align=center	49%	41%	–	2%^[33]	8%
Public Policy Polling (D-Garcia)	August 30–31, 2018	554	± 4.2%	align=center	44%	43%	–	–	13%
Gravis Marketing	June 27 – July 2, 2018	925	± 3.2%	41%	align=center	42%	–	–	17%
Public Policy Polling (D-Garcia)	January 5–7, 2018	735	± 4.0%	42%	align=center	43%	–	–	15%
Public Policy Polling (D-Garcia)	June 7–8, 2017	1,020	± 3.1%	42%	align=center	44%	–	–	14%

with Steve Farley

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Doug Ducey (R)	Steve Farley (D)	Undecided
Gravis Marketing	June 27 – July 2, 2018	925	± 3.2%	align=center	42%	39%	19%
GQR Research (D-Farley)	February 23 – March 5, 2018	500	± 4.4%	align=center	49%	44%	7%
Public Policy Polling (D-Garcia)	January 5–7, 2018	735	± 4.0%	align=center	42%	39%	19%
Public Policy Polling (D-Garcia)	June 7–8, 2017	1,020	± 3.1%	align=center	42%	40%	18%

with generic Democrat

with Kyrsten Sinema

Results by county

County	David Garcia Democratic		Doug Ducey Republican		Angel Torres Green		Margin		Totalvotes
		%		%		%		%
Apache	14,955	59.72%	9,175	36.64%	912	3.64%	5,780	23.08%	25,042
Cochise	14,576	32.10%	29,638	65.26%	1,201	2.64%	-15,062	-33.17%	45,415
Coconino	30,712	55.91%	22,778	41.47%	1,440	2.62%	7,934	14.44%	54,930
Gila	5,623	27.38%	14,444	70.34%	468	2.28%	-8,821	-42.96%	20,535
Graham	2,569	24.19%	7,776	73.21%	276	2.60%	-5,207	-49.03%	10,621
Greenlee	832	32.64%	1,637	64.22%	80	3.14%	-805	-31.58%	2,549
La Paz	1,122	21.99%	3,852	75.49%	129	2.53%	-2,730	-53.50%	5,103
Maricopa	603,055	42.09%	800,210	55.85%	29,495	2.06%	-197,155	-13.76%	1,432,760
Mohave	13,580	18.97%	56,682	79.18%	1,325	1.85%	-43,102	-60.21%	71,587
Navajo	13,646	37.30%	21,880	59.81%	1,055	2.88%	-8,234	-22.51%	36,581
Pima	195,227	50.25%	184,621	47.52%	8,678	2.23%	10,606	2.73%	388,526
Pinal	38,801	33.21%	75,272	64.42%	2,767	2.37%	-36,471	-31.21%	116,840
Santa Cruz	8,407	62.46%	4,792	35.60%	261	1.94%	3,615	26.86%	13,460
Yavapai	32,159	29.68%	74,148	68.44%	2,029	1.87%	-41,989	-38.76%	108,336
Yuma	19,077	43.47%	23,958	54.60%	846	1.93%	-4,881	-11.12%%	43,881
Total	994,341	41.8%	1,330,863	56.0%	50,962	2.1%	336,522	14.2%	2,376,166

Results by congressional district

Ducey won 6 of the 9 congressional districts, including two that elected Democrats.^[34]

District	David Garcia Democratic	Doug Ducey Republican	Representative
			43.1%		54.3%		Tom O'Halleran
			46.1%		51.6%		Ann Kirkpatrick
			57.7%		35.7%		Raúl Grijalva
			25.1%		72.9%		Paul Gosar
			34.0%		64.0%		Andy Biggs
			38.2%		60.1%		David Schweikert
			67.3%		29.6%		Ruben Gallego
			33.2%		64.6%		Debbie Lesko
			52.2%		45.5%		Greg Stanton

Voter Demographics

Garcia!

Ducey	No Answer	% of Voters
Gender
Men	40	58	2	47
Women	43	55	2	53
Age
18–24 years old	N/A	N/A	N/A	5
25–29 years old	N/A	N/A	N/A	4
30–39 years old	45	52	3	17
40–49 years old	43	55	2	16
50–64 years old	37	61	2	29
65 and older	40	59	1	29
Race
White	37	62	1	75
Black	N/A	N/A	N/A	2
Latino	56	44	N/A	19
Asian	N/A	N/A	N/A	1
Other	N/A	N/A	N/A	1
Race and Gender
White men	34	64	2	34
White women	39	60	1	41
Black men	N/A	N/A	N/A	1
Black women	N/A	N/A	N/A	1
Latino men	53	46	1	9
Latina women	58	42	N/A	10
Others	N/A	N/A	N/A	4
Education
High school or less	32	67	1	25
Some college education	40	58	2	28
Associate Degree	38	59	3	10
Bachelor's Degree	46	51	3	23
Advanced degree	59	40	1	14
Education and race
White college graduates	48	49	3	27
White no college degree	30	69	1	38
Non-white college graduates	51	47	2	9
Non-white no college degree	61	38	1	16
Whites by education and gender
White women with college degrees	50	49	1	15
White women without college degrees	33	66	1	26
White men with college degrees	46	49	5	12
White men without college degrees	28	72	N/A	21
Non-whites	58	40	2	25
Military service
Veteran	33	65	2	14
Non-veteran	45	54	1	86
Income
Under $30,000	36	62	2	15
$30,000-$49,999	54	45	1	19
$50,000-$99,999	46	52	2	33
$100,000-$199,999	31	67	2	24
Over $200,000	28	72	N/A	9
Party ID
Democrats	85	14	1	31
Republicans	5	95	N/A	38
Independents	45	52	3	31
Party by gender
Democratic men	77	20	3	14
Democratic women	91	9	N/A	17
Republican men	5	95	N/A	15
Republican women	4	96	N/A	23
Independent men	42	56	2	18
Independent women	48	47	5	13
Ideology
Liberals	83	16	1	22
Moderates	57	41	2	38
Conservatives	4	95	1	40
First-time midterm election voter
Yes	51	45	4	15
No	41	58	1	85
Most important issue facing the country
Health care	64	33	3	42
Immigration	8	91	1	31
Economy	38	60	2	18
Gun policy	N/A	N/A	N/A	7
Area type
Urban	52	46	2	43
Suburban	34	64	2	51
Rural	N/A	N/A	N/A	5
Source: CNN^[35]

External links

• Candidates at Vote Smart
• Candidates at Ballotpedia

Official campaign websites

• Doug Ducey (R) for Governor
• David Garcia (D) for Governor
• Angel Torres (G) for Governor
• Christian Komor (No Party; write-in) for Governor
• Patrick Masoya (No Party; write-in) for Governor

Notes and References

1. Web site: Voter Registration Statistics | Arizona Secretary of State. 7 May 2023.
2. Web site: 2018 State Primary Election Dates. National Conference of State. Legislatures. www.ncsl.org. 22 May 2018.
3. Web site: Ducey 2018. www.ducey2018.com. 2018-02-09. 2018-08-06. https://web.archive.org/web/20180806020757/http://ducey2018.com/. dead.
4. Web site: Former Secretary of State Ken Bennett to challenge Gov. Doug Ducey in primary. Howard Fischer Capitol Media. Services. Arizona Daily Star. 21 April 2018 . 7 May 2023.
5. Web site: Ducey draws primary challenge from Bennett | Arizona Capitol Times. Howard Fischer, Capitol Media. Services. 22 April 2018. 7 May 2023.
6. Web site: Arizona Election Information. apps.azsos.gov.
7. Web site: Democrat David Garcia to announce run for Arizona governor. April 7, 2017. 12 News. April 9, 2017. Resnik, Brahm. September 18, 2017. https://web.archive.org/web/20170918021600/http://www.12news.com/news/politics/democrat-david-garcia-to-announce-run-for-arizona-governor/429695526. dead.
8. Web site: Democrat David Garcia challenging Doug Ducey for Arizona governor. Yvonne Wingett. Sanchez. The Arizona Republic. 7 May 2023.
9. Web site: Democrat Kelly Fryer announces run for AZ governor. Democrat Steve Farley announces run for AZ governor. Steve. Nunez. 2017-06-06. 2018-06-15. https://web.archive.org/web/20180615111026/http://www.kvoa.com/story/35588384/democrat-steve-farley-expected-to-run-for-arizona-governor. dead.
10. Web site: Tucson Democrat Kelly Fryer enters race for governor. Joe. Ferguson. Arizona Daily Star. 8 January 2018 . 7 May 2023.
11. Web site: Valdez: Who do politicians love? Here's why you need to see the donor list. 22 May 2018.
12. Web site: FWIW, @RepSinema (D-AZ) told me yesterday, "I am not running for governor.". Twitter. Cohen. Zach C.. December 8, 2016. December 8, 2016.
13. Web site: Phoenix Mayor Greg Stanton eyeing run for statewide office. The Arizona Republic. Gardiner. Dustin. November 1, 2016. November 4, 2016.
14. News: Phoenix Mayor Greg Stanton announces run for Congress. The Arizona Republic. Boehm. Jessica. October 5, 2017. October 5, 2017.
15. Web site: 2018 Candidates. 7 May 2023.
16. Web site: McCormick For Governor Announcement. . September 14, 2017. October 25, 2017.
17. Web site: Breaking: Former Libertarian Presidential Candidate To Run For Arizona Governor. Martinez, Remso W.. Halsey News. September 13, 2017. December 11, 2017. December 12, 2017. https://web.archive.org/web/20171212194636/https://www.halseynews.com/2017/09/13/breaking-former-libertarian-presidential-candidate-run-arizona-governor/. dead.
18. Web site: Candidate Search. 2018-01-20. 2017-06-23. https://web.archive.org/web/20170623214936/http://apps.azsos.gov/apps/election/cfs/search/CandidateSearch.aspx. dead.
19. Web site: Noah Dyer announces his bid for Arizona governor. azcentral.
20. News: Fed up with Democrats, Arizona governor candidate Noah Dyer changes to independent. The Arizona Republic. Wingett Sanchez. Yvonne. July 26, 2017. October 5, 2017.
21. Web site: 2018 Senate Congressional General Election Candidates . County Supervisors Association of Arizona. July 11, 2019.
22. Web site: Jeffries Will Not Run For Governor, Will Proceed With Lawsuit . January 25, 2018 . January 22, 2018 . Arizona Daily Independent.
23. Web site: 2018 Governor Race Ratings for October 26, 2018. The Cook Political Report. en. 2021-04-10.
24. News: The Washington Post's gubernatorial race ratings. The Washington Post. October 16, 2018.
25. Web site: 2018 Governor Forecast FiveThirtyEight. FiveThirtyEight. 17 October 2018 . en. October 17, 2018.
26. Web site: 2018 Gubernatorial Ratings Inside Elections. insideelections.com. en. 2017-11-15.
27. Web site: Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball » 2018 Governor. www.centerforpolitics.org. en-US. 2017-11-15.
28. Web site: 2018 Governor Races. RealClearPolitics. October 9, 2018.
29. Web site: 2018 Governor Race Ratings. Daily Kos. June 5, 2018.
30. Web site: 2018 Midterm Power Ranking. Fox News.
31. Web site: Politico Race Ratings. Politico.
32. Web site: 2018 Governor Elections: As November Nears, More Governors' Races Become Tossups . www.governing.com . en . 2018-07-18 . October 21, 2018 . https://web.archive.org/web/20181021005343/http://www.governing.com/topics/politics/gov-governors-races-july-ratings.html . dead .
33. Barry Hess (L) with 2%
34. Web site: Daily Kos Elections' statewide election results by congressional and legislative districts. Daily Kos. 11 August 2020.
35. News: Arizona Gubernatorial Election exit poll . March 29, 2019 . CNN . en.