2018 Arizona gubernatorial election explained

Election Name:2018 Arizona gubernatorial election
Country:Arizona
Type:presidential
Ongoing:no
Previous Election:2014 Arizona gubernatorial election
Previous Year:2014
Next Election:2022 Arizona gubernatorial election
Next Year:2022
Election Date:November 6, 2018
Image1:File:DougDucey (cropped).jpg
Nominee1:Doug Ducey
Party1:Republican Party (United States)
Popular Vote1:1,330,863
Percentage1:56.00%
Nominee2:David Garcia
Party2:Democratic Party (United States)
Popular Vote2:994,341
Percentage2:41.84%
Map Size:210px
Governor
Before Election:Doug Ducey
Before Party:Republican Party (United States)
After Election:Doug Ducey
After Party:Republican Party (United States)
Turnout:64.85% 17.33pp [1]

The 2018 Arizona gubernatorial election took place on November 6, 2018, to elect the Governor of Arizona, concurrently with the election of Arizona's Class I U.S. Senate seat, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections.

The primary was held on August 28.[2] Despite considerably closer contests in other Arizona state elections, which included Democratic gains for U.S. Senate, Secretary of State, and Superintendent of Public Instruction, incumbent Governor Doug Ducey won a second term, with a slightly increased majority from his 2014 win and the largest margin of victory of any statewide candidate on the ballot. This was the first Arizona gubernatorial election since 1990 in which the winner was of the same party as the incumbent U.S. president.

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

Results

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

Declined

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Steve
Farley
Kelly
Fryer
David
Garcia
Undecided
OH Predictive InsightsAugust 14–15, 2018589± 4.0%25%7% align=center40%28%
Data Orbital June 25–27, 2018550± 4.2%11%6% align=center33% align=center49%
Emerson College June 21–22, 2018260± 6.2%13%8% align=center30% align=center48%
Garin-Hart-Yang (D-Garcia)May 21–23, 2018400± 5.0%11%11% align=center32% align=center46%
Public Policy Polling (D-Garcia)January 5–7, 201844622% align=center43%36%

Results

Libertarian primary

Candidates

Disqualified

Endorsements

Green primary

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

Results

Independents

Candidates

Disqualified

Declined

General election

Debates

DatesLocationDuceyGarciaLink
September 24, 2018Tempe, ArizonaParticipantParticipantalign=left Full debateYouTube
September 25, 2018Tucson, ArizonaParticipantParticipantalign=left Full debateC-SPAN

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report[23] October 26, 2018
The Washington Post[24] November 5, 2018
FiveThirtyEight[25] November 5, 2018
Rothenberg Political Report[26] November 1, 2018
Sabato's Crystal Ball[27] November 5, 2018
RealClearPolitics[28] November 4, 2018
Daily Kos[29] November 5, 2018
Fox News[30] November 5, 2018
Politico[31] November 5, 2018
Governing[32] November 5, 2018

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Doug
Ducey (R)
David
Garcia (D)
Angel
Torres (G)
OtherUndecided
HarrisXNovember 3–5, 2018600± 4.0% align=center53%39%
HarrisXNovember 2–4, 2018600± 4.0% align=center55%37%
Emerson CollegeNovember 1–3, 2018758± 3.7% align=center55%40%5%
HarrisXNovember 1–3, 2018600± 4.0% align=center57%36%
Research Co.November 1–3, 2018450± 4.6% align=center54%39%2%5%
HarrisXOctober 31 – November 2, 2018600± 4.0% align=center56%37%
Gravis MarketingOctober 24 – November 2, 20181,165± 2.9% align=center53%40%7%
HarrisXOctober 30 – November 1, 2018600± 4.0% align=center57%36%
HarrisXOctober 29–31, 2018600± 4.0% align=center54%37%
Vox Populi PollingOctober 27–30, 2018677± 3.7% align=center54%46%
HarrisX October 24–30, 20181,400± 2.6% align=center57%35%
Fox NewsOctober 27–29, 2018643 LV± 3.5% align=center55%37%2%5%
710 RV± 3.5% align=center54%35%3%7%
CNN/SSRSOctober 24–29, 2018702 LV± 4.4% align=center52%45%0%1%
867 RV± 4.0% align=center52%43%0%3%
HighGround Public Affairs October 26–28, 2018400± 4.9% align=center55%35%4%7%
Marist CollegeOctober 23–27, 2018506 LV± 5.4% align=center54%40%5%<1%2%
align=center55%42%1%1%
793 RV± 4.4% align=center54%38%5%<1%3%
align=center55%41%1%3%
YouGovOctober 23–26, 2018972± 4.1% align=center52%41%1%5%
IpsosOctober 17–26, 2018799± 4.0% align=center57%37%2%3%
OH Predictive InsightsOctober 22–23, 2018600± 4.0% align=center57%39%1%3%
Change Research (D-Garcia)October 9–10, 2018783 align=center47%40%11%
OH Predictive InsightsOctober 3, 2018600± 4.0% align=center54%37%2%7%
Data Orbital October 1–3, 2018550± 4.2% align=center52%34%2%2%9%
Fox NewsSeptember 29 – October 2, 2018716 LV± 3.5% align=center55%37%1%7%
806 RV± 3.5% align=center54%35%2%9%
Vox Populi PollingSeptember 29 – October 1, 2018702± 3.5% align=center57%43%
Suffolk University September 27–30, 2018500± 4.4% align=center50%38%2%0%10%
Latino DecisionsSeptember 10–25, 2018463 LV align=center45%40%15%
610 RV align=center41%37%19%
Emerson CollegeSeptember 19–21, 2018650± 4.4% align=center42%38%6%14%
Marist CollegeSeptember 16–20, 2018564 LV± 4.7% align=center49%39%6%<1%6%
align=center51%43%<1%5%
763 RV± 4.2% align=center48%37%7%<1%7%
align=center51%42%1%6%
CNN/SSRSSeptember 11–15, 2018761 LV± 4.3% align=center49%46%0%2%
854 RV± 4.1% align=center48%45%1%4%
Ipsos September 5–14, 20181,016± 4.0% align=center51%39%4%7%
TargetSmart (D-ProgressNow AZ) September 8–13, 2018800± 4.0% align=center49%48%0%3%
Fox NewsSeptember 8–11, 2018710 LV± 3.5% align=center51%40%1%8%
801 RV± 3.5% align=center49%39%1%10%
Gravis MarketingSeptember 5–7, 2018882± 3.3% align=center48%44%9%
Data Orbital September 4–6, 2018550± 4.2% align=center49%41%2%[33] 8%
Public Policy Polling (D-Garcia)August 30–31, 2018554± 4.2% align=center44%43%13%
Gravis MarketingJune 27 – July 2, 2018925± 3.2%41% align=center42%17%
Public Policy Polling (D-Garcia)January 5–7, 2018735± 4.0%42% align=center43%15%
Public Policy Polling (D-Garcia)June 7–8, 20171,020± 3.1%42% align=center44%14%
with Steve Farley
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Doug
Ducey (R)
Steve
Farley (D)
Undecided
Gravis MarketingJune 27 – July 2, 2018925± 3.2% align=center42%39%19%
GQR Research (D-Farley)February 23 – March 5, 2018500± 4.4% align=center49%44%7%
Public Policy Polling (D-Garcia)January 5–7, 2018735± 4.0% align=center42%39%19%
Public Policy Polling (D-Garcia)June 7–8, 20171,020± 3.1% align=center42%40%18%
with generic Democrat
with Kyrsten Sinema

Results by county

CountyDavid Garcia
Democratic
Doug Ducey
Republican
Angel Torres
Green
MarginTotalvotes
%%%%
Apache14,95559.72%9,17536.64%9123.64%5,78023.08%25,042
Cochise14,57632.10%29,63865.26%1,2012.64%-15,062-33.17%45,415
Coconino30,71255.91%22,77841.47%1,4402.62%7,93414.44%54,930
Gila5,62327.38%14,44470.34%4682.28%-8,821-42.96%20,535
Graham2,56924.19%7,77673.21%2762.60%-5,207-49.03%10,621
Greenlee83232.64%1,63764.22%803.14%-805-31.58%2,549
La Paz1,12221.99%3,85275.49%1292.53%-2,730-53.50%5,103
Maricopa603,05542.09%800,21055.85%29,4952.06%-197,155-13.76%1,432,760
Mohave13,58018.97%56,68279.18%1,3251.85%-43,102-60.21%71,587
Navajo13,64637.30%21,88059.81%1,0552.88%-8,234-22.51%36,581
Pima195,22750.25%184,62147.52%8,6782.23%10,6062.73%388,526
Pinal38,80133.21%75,27264.42%2,7672.37%-36,471-31.21%116,840
Santa Cruz8,40762.46%4,79235.60%2611.94%3,61526.86%13,460
Yavapai32,15929.68%74,14868.44%2,0291.87%-41,989-38.76%108,336
Yuma19,07743.47%23,95854.60%8461.93%-4,881-11.12%%43,881
Total994,34141.8%1,330,86356.0%50,9622.1%336,52214.2%2,376,166

Results by congressional district

Ducey won 6 of the 9 congressional districts, including two that elected Democrats.[34]

DistrictDavid Garcia
Democratic
Doug Ducey
Republican
Representative
43.1%54.3%Tom O'Halleran
46.1%51.6%Ann Kirkpatrick
57.7%35.7%Raúl Grijalva
25.1%72.9%Paul Gosar
34.0%64.0%Andy Biggs
38.2%60.1%David Schweikert
67.3%29.6%Ruben Gallego
33.2%64.6%Debbie Lesko
52.2%45.5%Greg Stanton

Voter Demographics

Garcia!
DuceyNo
Answer
% of
Voters
Gender
Men4058247
Women4355253
Age
18–24 years oldN/AN/AN/A5
25–29 years oldN/AN/AN/A4
30–39 years old4552317
40–49 years old4355216
50–64 years old3761229
65 and older4059129
Race
White3762175
BlackN/AN/AN/A2
Latino5644N/A19
AsianN/AN/AN/A1
OtherN/AN/AN/A1
Race and Gender
White men3464234
White women3960141
Black menN/AN/AN/A1
Black womenN/AN/AN/A1
Latino men534619
Latina women5842N/A10
OthersN/AN/AN/A4
Education
High school or less3267125
Some college education4058228
Associate Degree3859310
Bachelor's Degree4651323
Advanced degree5940114
Education and race
White college graduates4849327
White no college degree3069138
Non-white college graduates514729
Non-white no college degree6138116
Whites by education and gender
White women with college degrees5049115
White women without college degrees3366126
White men with college degrees4649512
White men without college degrees2872N/A21
Non-whites5840225
Military service
Veteran3365214
Non-veteran4554186
Income
Under $30,0003662215
$30,000-$49,9995445119
$50,000-$99,9994652233
$100,000-$199,9993167224
Over $200,0002872N/A9
Party ID
Democrats8514131
Republicans595N/A38
Independents4552331
Party by gender
Democratic men7720314
Democratic women919N/A17
Republican men595N/A15
Republican women496N/A23
Independent men4256218
Independent women4847513
Ideology
Liberals8316122
Moderates5741238
Conservatives495140
First-time midterm election voter
Yes5145415
No4158185
Most important issue facing the country
Health care6433342
Immigration891131
Economy3860218
Gun policyN/AN/AN/A7
Area type
Urban5246243
Suburban3464251
RuralN/AN/AN/A5
Source: CNN[35]

External links

Official campaign websites

Notes and References

  1. Web site: Voter Registration Statistics | Arizona Secretary of State. 7 May 2023.
  2. Web site: 2018 State Primary Election Dates. National Conference of State. Legislatures. www.ncsl.org. 22 May 2018.
  3. Web site: Ducey 2018. www.ducey2018.com. 2018-02-09. 2018-08-06. https://web.archive.org/web/20180806020757/http://ducey2018.com/. dead.
  4. Web site: Former Secretary of State Ken Bennett to challenge Gov. Doug Ducey in primary. Howard Fischer Capitol Media. Services. Arizona Daily Star. 21 April 2018 . 7 May 2023.
  5. Web site: Ducey draws primary challenge from Bennett | Arizona Capitol Times. Howard Fischer, Capitol Media. Services. 22 April 2018. 7 May 2023.
  6. Web site: Arizona Election Information. apps.azsos.gov.
  7. Web site: Democrat David Garcia to announce run for Arizona governor. April 7, 2017. 12 News. April 9, 2017. Resnik, Brahm. September 18, 2017. https://web.archive.org/web/20170918021600/http://www.12news.com/news/politics/democrat-david-garcia-to-announce-run-for-arizona-governor/429695526. dead.
  8. Web site: Democrat David Garcia challenging Doug Ducey for Arizona governor. Yvonne Wingett. Sanchez. The Arizona Republic. 7 May 2023.
  9. Web site: Democrat Kelly Fryer announces run for AZ governor. Democrat Steve Farley announces run for AZ governor. Steve. Nunez. 2017-06-06. 2018-06-15. https://web.archive.org/web/20180615111026/http://www.kvoa.com/story/35588384/democrat-steve-farley-expected-to-run-for-arizona-governor. dead.
  10. Web site: Tucson Democrat Kelly Fryer enters race for governor. Joe. Ferguson. Arizona Daily Star. 8 January 2018 . 7 May 2023.
  11. Web site: Valdez: Who do politicians love? Here's why you need to see the donor list. 22 May 2018.
  12. Web site: FWIW, @RepSinema (D-AZ) told me yesterday, "I am not running for governor.". Twitter. Cohen. Zach C.. December 8, 2016. December 8, 2016.
  13. Web site: Phoenix Mayor Greg Stanton eyeing run for statewide office. The Arizona Republic. Gardiner. Dustin. November 1, 2016. November 4, 2016.
  14. News: Phoenix Mayor Greg Stanton announces run for Congress. The Arizona Republic. Boehm. Jessica. October 5, 2017. October 5, 2017.
  15. Web site: 2018 Candidates. 7 May 2023.
  16. Web site: McCormick For Governor Announcement. . September 14, 2017. October 25, 2017.
  17. Web site: Breaking: Former Libertarian Presidential Candidate To Run For Arizona Governor. Martinez, Remso W.. Halsey News. September 13, 2017. December 11, 2017. December 12, 2017. https://web.archive.org/web/20171212194636/https://www.halseynews.com/2017/09/13/breaking-former-libertarian-presidential-candidate-run-arizona-governor/. dead.
  18. Web site: Candidate Search. 2018-01-20. 2017-06-23. https://web.archive.org/web/20170623214936/http://apps.azsos.gov/apps/election/cfs/search/CandidateSearch.aspx. dead.
  19. Web site: Noah Dyer announces his bid for Arizona governor. azcentral.
  20. News: Fed up with Democrats, Arizona governor candidate Noah Dyer changes to independent. The Arizona Republic. Wingett Sanchez. Yvonne. July 26, 2017. October 5, 2017.
  21. Web site: 2018 Senate Congressional General Election Candidates . County Supervisors Association of Arizona. July 11, 2019.
  22. Web site: Jeffries Will Not Run For Governor, Will Proceed With Lawsuit . January 25, 2018 . January 22, 2018 . Arizona Daily Independent.
  23. Web site: 2018 Governor Race Ratings for October 26, 2018. The Cook Political Report. en. 2021-04-10.
  24. News: The Washington Post's gubernatorial race ratings. The Washington Post. October 16, 2018.
  25. Web site: 2018 Governor Forecast FiveThirtyEight. FiveThirtyEight. 17 October 2018 . en. October 17, 2018.
  26. Web site: 2018 Gubernatorial Ratings Inside Elections. insideelections.com. en. 2017-11-15.
  27. Web site: Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball » 2018 Governor. www.centerforpolitics.org. en-US. 2017-11-15.
  28. Web site: 2018 Governor Races. RealClearPolitics. October 9, 2018.
  29. Web site: 2018 Governor Race Ratings. Daily Kos. June 5, 2018.
  30. Web site: 2018 Midterm Power Ranking. Fox News.
  31. Web site: Politico Race Ratings. Politico.
  32. Web site: 2018 Governor Elections: As November Nears, More Governors' Races Become Tossups . www.governing.com . en . 2018-07-18 . October 21, 2018 . https://web.archive.org/web/20181021005343/http://www.governing.com/topics/politics/gov-governors-races-july-ratings.html . dead .
  33. Barry Hess (L) with 2%
  34. Web site: Daily Kos Elections' statewide election results by congressional and legislative districts. Daily Kos. 11 August 2020.
  35. News: Arizona Gubernatorial Election exit poll . March 29, 2019 . CNN . en.