2014 Arizona gubernatorial election explained

Election Name:2014 Arizona gubernatorial election
Country:Arizona
Type:presidential
Ongoing:no
Previous Election:2010 Arizona gubernatorial election
Previous Year:2010
Next Election:2018 Arizona gubernatorial election
Next Year:2018
Election Date:November 4, 2014
Image1:File:Doug Ducey by Gage Skidmore 2.jpg
Nominee1:Doug Ducey
Party1:Republican Party (United States)
Popular Vote1:805,062
Percentage1:53.44%
Nominee2:Fred DuVal
Party2:Democratic Party (United States)
Popular Vote2:626,921
Percentage2:41.62%
Governor
Before Election:Jan Brewer
Before Party:Republican Party (United States)
After Election:Doug Ducey
After Party:Republican Party (United States)
Turnout:47.52% 8.13pp [1]

The 2014 Arizona gubernatorial election was held on November 4, 2014, to elect the Governor of Arizona, concurrently with elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections.

Incumbent Republican Governor Jan Brewer was term-limited and could not run for re-election to a second consecutive full term in office. After a bitter six-candidate primary, Republicans nominated Arizona State Treasurer Doug Ducey; Democrat Fred DuVal, the former chairman of the Arizona Board of Regents, won his party's nomination unopposed. Ducey won the election with 53% of the vote. This election marked the first time since 1994 that no female gubernatorial candidate was on the ballot and that a man was elected governor of Arizona. This was the first open seat gubernatorial election in the state since 2002.

Background

Democratic Governor Janet Napolitano resigned on January 21, 2009, to be sworn in as Secretary of the Department of Homeland Security. Since Arizona does not have a lieutenant governor, Secretary of State Jan Brewer was first in the state's gubernatorial line of succession and was sworn in as governor on the same day. She was elected to a full term in 2010, defeating Democrat Terry Goddard, the Arizona Attorney General, by 54% to 42%.

Brewer was term-limited in 2014, despite only serving one full term. This is because Arizona state law limits office holders to two consecutive terms regardless of whether they serve full or partial terms. In November 2012, Brewer declared she was looking into what she called "ambiguity" in Arizona's term-limit law to seek a third term.[2] In February 2014, Brewer reiterated that she was considering running for re-election,[3] but on March 12, 2014, she announced that she would not attempt to seek another term in office, which would have required what The Arizona Republic called a "long-shot court challenge".[4]

Republican primary

The Republican primary campaign was widely characterised as being "bitter" and "nasty"[5] [6] [7] [8] and the $16.2 million spent by the six Republican candidates means that the 2014 election has already broken the record for most expensive gubernatorial race in state history, exceeding the 2002 election in which $9.2 million was spent during the primary and general election campaigns combined.[9]

Candidates

Declared

Withdrew

Declined

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
class=small Sample
size
class=small Margin of
error
Ken
Bennett
Doug
Ducey
Christine
Jones
Al
Melvin
John
Molina
Frank
Riggs
Scott
Smith
Andrew
Thomas
Undecided
Magellan StrategiesAugust 17–21, 20141,281± 2.74%12% align=center32%18%2%21%8%7%
Harper PollingAugust 19–20, 2014812± 3.44%14% align=center32%16%2%19%7%10%
RemingtonAugust 17–19, 2014502± 4.37%10% align=center33%18%1%22%11%5%
Magellan StrategiesAugust 15–18, 20141,322± ?12% align=center31%17%3%22%8%7%
Magellan StrategiesAugust 12–15, 20141,300± ?10% align=center31%16%3%23%7%10%
Magellan StrategiesAugust 5–7, 20141,289± 2.73%11% align=center29%13%4%22%9%12%
Magellan StrategiesJuly 28–31, 20141,644± ?12% align=center23%13%5%21%10%16%
UndisclosedLate July 2014?± ?10% align=center23%20%2%15%9%21%
Harper PollingJuly 16–17, 2014885± 3.29%12% align=center23%21%1%13%7%22%
Behavior Research CenterJuly 10–17, 2014459± 4.7%10%13% align=center17%2%8%0% align=center50%
Gravis MarketingJuly 14, 2014691± 4%7% align=center28%19%1%14%8%24%
HighgroundJuly 10–12, 2014400± 4.9%3.5% align=center17.3%15.3%1.5%9.8%3% align=center49.8%
Magellan StrategiesJuly 9–10, 2014593± 4.02%11% align=center26%22%2%14%6%19%
Harper PollingJune 25–26, 2014791± 3.48%12% align=center33%15%2%14%3%22%
McLaughlin & AssociatesJune 10, 2014400± 3.48%8% align=center22.8%6.2%6.5% align=center56.5%
Magellan StrategiesJune 3–4, 2014630± 3.9%12% align=center28%12%2%2%16%5%23%
Magellan StrategiesMay 13–14, 2014760± 3.6%12.7% align=center27.3%11.9%1.3%0.2%0.7%11.5%5.6% align=center28.8%
UndisclosedApril 29, 20141,367± 3.5%7%4% align=center10%9%5% align=center65%
Magellan StrategiesApril 8–9, 2014?± ? align=center15%9%14%1%6%6% align=center45%
Public Policy PollingFeb. 28–Mar. 2, 2014403± 4.9% align=center20%6%16%1%1%1%12%9% align=center34%
Behavior Research CenterJanuary 16–26, 2014701± 3.8%6%2% align=center8%1%7%7% align=center69%
SusquehannaNov. 27–Dec. 4 2013245± ? align=center20%8%4%2%6%4% align=center56%

Results

Democratic primary

Candidates

Declared

Withdrew

Declined

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
class=small Sample
size
class=small Margin of
error
Ron
Cavanaugh
Fred
DuVal
Undecided
Behavior Research CenterJanuary 16–26, 2014?± ?12% align=center18% align=center72%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
class=small Sample
size
class=small Margin of
error
Chad
Campbell
Fred
DuVal
Undecided
Myers ResearchMay 22–June 13, 2012?± ? align=center31%18% align=center51%

Results

Third parties

Candidates

Declared

Results

General election

Debates

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
align=left The Cook Political Report[48] November 3, 2014
align=left Sabato's Crystal Ball[49] November 3, 2014
align=left Rothenberg Political Report[50] November 3, 2014
align=left Real Clear Politics[51] November 3, 2014

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
class=small Sample
size
class=small Margin of
error
Doug
Ducey (R)
Fred
DuVal (D)
OtherUndecided
CBS News/NYT/YouGovOctober 16–23, 20142,621± 4% align=center50%40%1%9%
The Polling CompanyOctober 20–22, 2014601± 4% align=center42%35%7%15%
Rasmussen ReportsOctober 14–16, 20141,056± 3% align=center47%42%3%7%
Tarrance GroupOctober 13–16, 2014500± 4.5% align=center43%36%5%16%
McLaughlin & AssociatesOctober 12–14, 2014500± 4.5% align=center37%36%5%[52] 22%
Adrian Gray ConsultingOctober 8–9, 2014600± 4% align=center43%35%8%[53] 14%
Moore InformationOctober 7–8, 2014400± ~4.9%36% align=center39%4%[54] 21%
The Polling CompanyOctober 6–8, 2014600± 4% align=center46%37%5%[55] 11%
CBS News/NYT/YouGovSeptember 20–October 1, 20142,808± 3% align=center50%39%2%9%
Keating ResearchSeptember 17–19, 2014600± 4% align=center41%39%7%13%
Tarrance GroupSeptember 15–17, 2014505± 4.5% align=center44%38%7%[56] 11%
CBS News/NYT/YouGovAugust 18–September 2, 20143,289± 3% align=center39%38%15%9%
Rasmussen ReportsAugust 27–28, 2014850± 3%40%40%20%
Public Policy PollingAugust 24–25, 2014588± 4%35%35%12%18%
Public Policy PollingFebruary 28–March 2, 2014870± 3.3%35% align=center36%29%
UndisclosedFebruary 2014500± ?32%32%6%30%
Behavior Research CenterJanuary 16–26, 2014701± 3.8%21% align=center23% align=center56%
SusquehannaNovember 27–December 4, 2013600± 4% align=center36%33%31%
With Bennett
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
class=small Sample
size
class=small Margin of
error
Ken
Bennett (R)
Fred
DuVal (D)
OtherUndecided
Public Policy PollingFebruary 28–March 2, 2014870± 3.3% align=center37%33%30%
Behavior Research CenterJanuary 16–26, 2014701± 3.8%26%22% align=center52%
SusquehannaNovember 27–December 4, 2013600± 4% align=center38%33%28%
With Jones
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
class=small Sample
size
class=small Margin of
error
Christine
Jones (R)
Fred
DuVal (D)
OtherUndecided
CBS News/NYT/YouGovJuly 5–24, 20143,778± ? align=center45%34%13%7%
Public Policy PollingFebruary 28–March 2, 2014870± 3.3%33% align=center37%30%
With Melvin
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
class=small Sample
size
class=small Margin of
error
Al
Melvin (R)
Fred
DuVal (D)
OtherUndecided
Public Policy PollingFebruary 28–March 2, 2014870± 3.3%32% align=center37%31%
With Molina
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
class=small Sample
size
class=small Margin of
error
John
Molina (R)
Fred
DuVal (D)
OtherUndecided
Public Policy PollingFebruary 28–March 2, 2014870± 3.3%32% align=center35%33%
With Riggs
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
class=small Sample
size
class=small Margin of
error
Frank
Riggs (R)
Fred
DuVal (D)
OtherUndecided
Public Policy PollingFebruary 28–March 2, 2014870± 3.3%32% align=center36%31%
With Smith
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
class=small Sample
size
class=small Margin of
error
Scott
Smith (R)
Fred
DuVal (D)
OtherUndecided
Public Policy PollingFebruary 28–March 2, 2014870± 3.3% align=center39%33%28%
Behavior Research CenterJanuary 16–26, 2014701± 3.8%20%23% align=center57%
With Thomas
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
class=small Sample
size
class=small Margin of
error
Andrew
Thomas (R)
Fred
DuVal (D)
OtherUndecided
Public Policy PollingFebruary 28–March 2, 2014870± 3.3%35% align=center40%25%

Results

County[57] Doug Ducey
Republican
Fred DuVal
Democratic
Barry Hess
Libertarian
John L. Mealer
Americans Elect
Write-inMarginTotal
votes
data-sort-type="number" data-sort-type="number" %data-sort-type="number" data-sort-type="number" %data-sort-type="number" data-sort-type="number" %data-sort-type="number" data-sort-type="number" %data-sort-type="number" data-sort-type="number" %data-sort-type="number" data-sort-type="number" %
Apache5,87128.5213,56265.886843.32style=background:#FFFF88 458style=background:#FFFF88 2.2290.04-7,691-37.3620,584
Cochise21,66259.4112,70934.851,6114.41style=background:#FFFF88 457style=background:#FFFF88 1.25220.068,95324.5636,461
Coconino14,52839.6420,21255.151,6504.50style=background:#FFFF88 496style=background:#FFFF88 1.35530.01-5,684-15.5136,645
Gila9,61060.675,25333.167695.34style=background:#FFFF88 202style=background:#FFFF88 1.2750.034,35727.5115,839
Graham4,98568.601,91926.412693.70style=background:#FFFF88 90style=background:#FFFF88 1.2330.043,06642.197,266
Greenlee99551.8279241.251045.41style=background:#FFFF88 29style=background:#FFFF88 1.5110.0520310.571,920
La Paz2,38868.5484624.281955.59style=background:#FFFF88 53style=background:#FFFF88 1.5220.051,54244.263,484
Maricopa469,20054.69346,87940.4332,4663.78style=background:#FFFF88 8,167 style=background:#FFFF88 0.951,0660.01122,32114.26857,778
Mohave33,15071.0210,66222.842,2424.80style=background:#FFFF88 604style=background:#FFFF88 1.29170.0322,48848.1846,675
Navajo13,56949.6112,12844.3410803.94style=background:#FFFF88 553style=background:#FFFF88 2.02190.061,4415.2727,349
Pima122,96645.43136,30250.358,8993.28style=background:#FFFF88 2,312style=background:#FFFF88 0.851910.07-13,336-4.92270,670
Pinal41,31357.8026,13136.562,9664.14style=background:#FFFF88 832style=background:#FFFF88 1.162310.3215,18221.2471,473
Santa Cruz3,17534.055,81962.402392.56style=background:#FFFF88 90style=background:#FFFF88 0.9610.01-2,644-28.359,324
Yavapai46,80663.1123,21031.293,2874.43style=background:#FFFF88 820style=background:#FFFF88 1.10310.0423,59631.8274,154
Yuma14,84456.0110,49739.618763.30style=background:#FFFF88 269style=background:#FFFF88 1.01130.044,34716.4026,499
Totals805,06253.44626,92141.6157,3373.8015,4321.021,6640.11178,14111.831,506,416

Results by congressional districts

Ducey won 6 of the 9 congressional districts, including one that elected a Democrat.[58]

DistrictDuValDuceyRepresentative
46.0%48.87%Ann Kirkpatrick
46.95%48.73%Martha McSally
56.31%38.77%
27.43%66.84%Paul Gosar
32.64%62.83%Matt Salmon
37.56%58.27%David Schweikert
65.18%29.29%
33.64%61.2%Trent Franks
49.06%46.3%Kyrsten Sinema

External links

Official campaign websites

Notes and References

  1. Web site: Voter Registration Statistics | Arizona Secretary of State. 7 May 2023.
  2. News: Report: Jan Brewer may seek 3rd term as Arizona governor . . November 12, 2012 . November 13, 2012.
  3. News: Brewer says it's hard to let go of governing as she decides whether to seek re-election . AZ Central . February 24, 2014 . March 3, 2014.
  4. News: Arizona Gov. Jan Brewer won't seek another term in office . AZ Central . March 12, 2014 . March 13, 2014.
  5. News: GOP Gubernatorial Candidate Calls Her Opponent A 'Misogynistic Jerk' . The Huffington Post . Samantha Lachman . August 6, 2014 . September 18, 2014.
  6. News: Analysis of primary election results: Why they won . AZ Central . Dan Nowicki . August 28, 2014 . September 18, 2014.
  7. News: Doug Ducey must unite GOP after bruising primary . AZ Family . Bob Christie . August 27, 2014 . September 18, 2014 . dead . https://web.archive.org/web/20140924040803/http://www.azfamily.com/news/politics/Doug-Ducey-must-unite-GOP-after-bruising-primary--272887591.html . September 24, 2014 .
  8. News: Primary elections underway in Florida, Oklahoma, Arizona, and Vermont . CBS News . August 26, 2014 . September 18, 2014.
  9. News: Governor's primary shatters spending records . AZ Central . August 30, 2014 . September 18, 2014.
  10. News: Ken Bennett says he'll run for governor. September 19, 2013. September 20, 2013. Associated Press.
  11. News: State treasurer Doug Ducey files paperwork to explore Ariz governor run . East Valley Tribune . July 23, 2013 . July 25, 2013.
  12. News: Doug Ducey Will Run for Arizona Governor in 2014. https://web.archive.org/web/20140419232357/http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/02/19/az-ducey-for-governor-idUSnBw196514a+100+BSW20140219. dead. April 19, 2014. Reuters. DeLaney. Melissa. February 19, 2014. April 19, 2014.
  13. Web site: Former Go Daddy exec enters GOP governor race. August 9, 2013. August 27, 2013. AZCentral.com. Alia Beard. Rau.
  14. Web site: Former California congressman joins GOP race for AZ governor. January 23, 2014. January 23, 2014. Arizona Daily Star. Howard. Fischer.
  15. Web site: Mesa Mayor Smith will quit to run for governor. January 9, 2014. January 9, 2014. AZCentral. Yvonne. Wingett Sanchez. Gary. Nelson.
  16. Web site: Disbarred former Maricopa County Attorney Thomas to run for governor. April 26, 2013. April 29, 2013. AZCentral.com. Alia Beard. Rau.
  17. Web site: Hugh Hallman withdraws from Ariz. governor's race. AZCentral.com. September 20, 2013. September 20, 2013. Mary Jo. Pitzl.
  18. Web site: Sen. Al Melvin announces run for governor. April 23, 2013. April 24, 2013. Verde News. Howard. Fischer. https://web.archive.org/web/20130524115122/http://verdenews.com/main.asp?SectionID=1&SubsectionID=1&ArticleID=53761. 2013-05-24. dead.
  19. News: Arizona Sen. Al Melvin drops out of governor's race . KTAR . Associated Press . June 23, 2014 . June 23, 2014 . dead . https://web.archive.org/web/20140625235931/http://ktar.com/22/1744286/Sen-Melvin-drops-out-of-AZ-governors-race . June 25, 2014 .
  20. Web site: Against the odds. October 21, 2013. January 23, 2014. Arizona Capitol Times. Jeremy. Duda.
  21. Web site: 2014 Primary Election Full Listing. May 29, 2014. May 30, 2014. Arizona Secretary of State. https://web.archive.org/web/20140531105139/http://www.azsos.gov/election/2014/primary/FullListing.htm. 2014-05-31. dead.
  22. Web site: Arpaio considering run for governor . January 22, 2014 . February 26, 2014 . . Thomas . Jennifer . dead . https://web.archive.org/web/20140304195520/http://www.azfamily.com/news/Arpaio-considering-run-for-governor-241503951.html . March 4, 2014 .
  23. Web site: Sheriff Arpaio says he won't run for governor . AZ Central . May 22, 2014 . May 26, 2014.
  24. Web site: Burns won't seek 2nd term on Corporation Commission . AZ Central . April 19, 2013 . May 26, 2014.
  25. News: Cardon running for secretary of state . Arizona Capitol Times. Jeremy. Duda . August 6, 2013 . September 5, 2013.
  26. Web site: Stephen Lemons . Arizona AG Tom Horne's Sex Scandal Scuttles Gubernatorial Bid – - News – Phoenix . Phoenix New Times . December 6, 2012 . November 3, 2013.
  27. Web site: Fischer . Howard . Richardson: AG Horne's checkered past might just be enough for reelection – East Valley Tribune: East Valley Voices . East Valley Tribune . November 3, 2013.
  28. Web site: McSally says she's being recruited for Ariz. governor, senate runs . AZCentral.com . April 23, 2013 . April 25, 2013.
  29. Web site: Martha McSally Files Paperwork for Rematch #AZ02 . Roll Call . July 3, 2013 . July 8, 2013.
  30. Web site: All eyes on 2014 race for governor. July 25, 2013. July 25, 2013. AZCentral. Yvonne. Wingett Sanchez.
  31. Web site: Steven Seagal mulls run for Arizona Governor. January 3, 2014. January 4, 2013. ABC15. https://web.archive.org/web/20140105033443/http://www.abc15.com/dpp/news/state/steven-seagal-mulls-run-for-arizona-governor. January 5, 2014. dead.
  32. Web site: Steven Seagal is not running for governor, so stop talking about it. January 7, 2014. February 26, 2013. Tucson Sentinel. Prezelski. Tom.
  33. Web site: Fred DuVal first Arizona Democrat to announce run for governor . Ktar.com . April 24, 2013 . April 25, 2013.
  34. Web site: Nobody Really Knows Who They Like for Arizona Governor, Poll Shows . Phoenix New Times . February 6, 2014 . February 6, 2014.
  35. Web site: Campbell says he won't run for governor in 2014. . September 17, 2013 . September 18, 2013.
  36. Web site: Richard Carmona will not run for Arizona governor. March 17, 2013. March 18, 2013 . . Brahm. Resnik.
  37. Web site: Neil Guiliano – "The Campaign Within" . 13 June 2012 . KJZZ.org . November 19, 2012.
  38. Web site: Supporters « Fred DuVal 2014 . dead . June 5, 2013 . https://web.archive.org/web/20130503051734/http://www.fred2014.com/supporters/ . May 3, 2013 .
  39. Web site: Lemons . Stephen . Terry Goddard Wants to Be AG Again? Puh-lease . Blogs.phoenixnewtimes.com . December 19, 2012 . September 22, 2013.
  40. Web site: Pitzl . Mary Jo . Sen. Reagan enters race for secretary of state post . Arizona Central . October 29, 2013 . November 1, 2013.
  41. Web site: Ex-'boy mayor' of Nogales takes vital border slot. Carmen Duarte arizona daily. star. Arizona Daily Star.
  42. Web site: University of California – UC Newsroom Regents appoint UC's first woman president . Universityofcalifornia.edu . September 22, 2013 . dead . https://web.archive.org/web/20130921055151/http://www.universityofcalifornia.edu/news/article/29782 . September 21, 2013 .
  43. Web site: Felecia Rotellini Making Another Run at Attorney General. February 26, 2013. March 3, 2013. Phoenix New Times. Matthew. Hendley.
  44. Web site: Gardiner . Dustin . Phoenix Mayor Greg Stanton is raising the office's profile . Arizona Central . January 28, 2013 . November 1, 2013.
  45. Web site: Write-in candidate looks to shake up AZ governor's race . CBS5AZ . September 16, 2014 . October 19, 2014.
  46. Web site: List of Candidates . AZ Voter Guide . October 19, 2014 . dead . https://web.archive.org/web/20141019171847/http://www.azvoterguide.com/candidates/2014/state/az/governor/ . October 19, 2014 .
  47. Web site: Against long odds, write-in candidates seek governor's office . Arizona Capitol Times . September 10, 2014 . October 19, 2014.
  48. Web site: 2014 Governor Race Ratings for November 3, 2014 . The Cook Political Report . September 3, 2018.
  49. Web site: The Crystal Ball's Final 2014 Picks . Sabato's Crystal Ball . September 3, 2018.
  50. Web site: 2014 Gubernatorial Ratings . Senate Ratings . The Rothenberg Political Report . September 3, 2018.
  51. Web site: 2014 Elections Map – 2014 Governors Races . Real Clear Politics . September 3, 2018.
  52. Barry Hess (L) 3%, John Lewis Mealer (AE) 3%
  53. Barry Hess (L) 5%, John Lewis Mealer (AE) 3%
  54. Barry Hess (L) 3%, John Lewis Mealer (AE) 1%
  55. Barry Hess (L)
  56. Barry Hess (L) 6%, John Lewis Mealer (AE) 1%
  57. Web site: State of Arizona Official Canvass. Arizona Secretary of State.
  58. Web site: Daily Kos Elections' statewide election results by congressional and legislative districts. Daily Kos. 11 August 2020.