2008 Andalusian regional election explained

Election Name:2008 Andalusian regional election
Country:Andalusia
Type:parliamentary
Ongoing:no
Previous Election:2004 Andalusian regional election
Previous Year:2004
Next Election:2012 Andalusian regional election
Next Year:2012
Seats For Election:All 109 seats in the Parliament of Andalusia
Majority Seats:55
Opinion Polls:
  1. Opinion polls
Registered:6,231,087 3.0%
Turnout:4,528,271 (72.7%)
2.0 pp
Election Date:9 March 2008
Leader1:Manuel Chaves
Party1:PSOE–A
Leader Since1:19 April 1990
Leaders Seat1:Cádiz
Last Election1:61 seats, 50.4%
Seats1:56
Seat Change1:5
Popular Vote1:2,178,296
Percentage1:48.4%
Swing1:2.0 pp
Leader2:Javier Arenas
Party2:People's Party of Andalusia
Leader Since2:18 April 2004
Leaders Seat2:Almería
Last Election2:37 seats, 31.8%
Seats2:47
Seat Change2:10
Popular Vote2:1,730,154
Percentage2:38.5%
Swing2:6.7 pp
Leader3:Diego Valderas
Party3:United Left/The Greens–Assembly for Andalusia
Leader Since3:10 October 2000
Leaders Seat3:Huelva
Last Election3:6 seats, 7.5%
Seats3:6
Seat Change3:0
Popular Vote3:317,562
Percentage3:7.1%
Swing3:0.4 pp
Map Size:375px
President
Before Election:Manuel Chaves
Before Party:PSOE–A
After Election:Manuel Chaves
After Party:PSOE–A

The 2008 Andalusian regional election was held on Sunday, 9 March 2008, to elect the 8th Parliament of the autonomous community of Andalusia. All 109 seats in the Parliament were up for election. The election was held simultaneously with the 2008 Spanish general election.

Incumbent President Manuel Chaves from the Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE–A) was re-elected for a sixth term in office with a slightly reduced majority. Final results showed a major breakthrough by the People's Party (PP), which gained 10 seats from 37 to 47 and scored its best result in the community at the time. United Left (IULV–CA) remained stagnant with 6 seats, whereas the Andalusian Party (PA) suffered a major drop in support and failed to enter the regional parliament for the first time.

Overview

Electoral system

The Parliament of Andalusia was the devolved, unicameral legislature of the autonomous community of Andalusia, having legislative power in regional matters as defined by the Spanish Constitution and the Andalusian Statute of Autonomy, as well as the ability to vote confidence in or withdraw it from a regional president.[1] Voting for the Parliament was on the basis of universal suffrage, which comprised all nationals over 18 years of age, registered in Andalusia and in full enjoyment of their political rights.

The 109 members of the Parliament of Andalusia were elected using the D'Hondt method and a closed list proportional representation, with an electoral threshold of three percent of valid votes—which included blank ballots—being applied in each constituency. Seats were allocated to constituencies, corresponding to the provinces of Almería, Cádiz, Córdoba, Granada, Huelva, Jaén, Málaga and Seville, with each being allocated an initial minimum of eight seats and the remaining 45 being distributed in proportion to their populations (provided that the number of seats in each province did not exceed two times that of any other).[1] [2]

As a result of the aforementioned allocation, each Parliament constituency was entitled the following seats:

SeatsConstituencies
18Seville
16Málaga
15Cádiz
13Granada
12Almería, Córdoba, Jaén
11Huelva

The use of the D'Hondt method might result in a higher effective threshold, depending on the district magnitude.[3]

Election date

The term of the Parliament of Andalusia expired four years after the date of its previous election, unless it was dissolved earlier. The election decree was required to be issued no later than the twenty-fifth day prior to the date of expiry of parliament and published on the following day in the Official Gazette of the Regional Government of Andalusia (BOJA), with election day taking place on the fifty-fourth day from publication barring any date within from 1 July to 31 August. The previous election was held on 14 March 2004, which meant that the legislature's term would have expired on 14 March 2008. The election decree was required to be published in the BOJA no later than 19 February 2008, with the election taking place on the fifty-fourth day from publication, setting the latest possible election date for the Parliament on Sunday, 13 April 2008.[1] [2] [4]

The president had the prerogative to dissolve the Parliament of Andalusia and call a snap election, provided that no motion of no confidence was in process and that dissolution did not occur before one year had elapsed since the previous one. In the event of an investiture process failing to elect a regional president within a two-month period from the first ballot, the Parliament was to be automatically dissolved and a fresh election called.[1] [5]

Background

With the Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE) regaining its absolute majority in Andalusia in the 2004 election, Manuel Chaves was able to govern alone again, after 10 years of minority government, having relied on the support of the Andalusian Party in the previous 8 years. Teófila Martínez, who had been PP candidate for President of the Regional Government of Andalusia in the previous two elections (1996 and 2000), was replaced by Javier Arenas as head of the Andalusian People's Party (PP). Arenas had been PP candidate in the 1994 and 1996 elections, but left the PP regional leadership in order to become Spain's Minister of Labor and Social Affairs in the Aznar cabinet and, later, Secretary-General of the People's Party.

Concurrently in 2004, José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero from PSOE was elected as Spain's new prime minister, after unexpectedly winning the 2004 general election. This meant that, for the first time since 1996, both the regional and national governments were ruled by the same party.

Parties and candidates

The electoral law allowed for parties and federations registered in the interior ministry, coalitions and groupings of electors to present lists of candidates. Parties and federations intending to form a coalition ahead of an election were required to inform the relevant Electoral Commission within ten days of the election call, whereas groupings of electors needed to secure the signature of at least one percent of the electorate in the constituencies for which they sought election, disallowing electors from signing for more than one list of candidates.[2] [4]

Below is a list of the main parties and electoral alliances which contested the election:

CandidacyParties and
alliances
Leading candidateIdeologyPrevious result
Votes (%)Seats
PSOE–AManuel ChavesSocial democracy50.36%
PPJavier ArenasConservatism
Christian democracy
31.78%
CAJulián ÁlvarezAndalusian nationalism
Social democracy
8.29%
IULV–CADiego ValderasSocialism
Communism
7.51%

Campaign

Election debates

2008 Andalusian regional election debates
DateOrganisersModerator(s)
PSOE–APPIULV–CACAAudience
26 FebruaryCanal SurCarlos María Ruiz15.7%
[6]
[7]
2 MarchCanal SurEsther MartínNINI21.5%
[8]
[9]

Opinion polls

The tables below list opinion polling results in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first and using the dates when the survey fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. Where the fieldwork dates are unknown, the date of publication is given instead. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed with its background shaded in the leading party's colour. If a tie ensues, this is applied to the figures with the highest percentages. The "Lead" column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the parties with the highest percentages in a poll.

Voting intention estimates

The table below lists weighted voting intention estimates. Refusals are generally excluded from the party vote percentages, while question wording and the treatment of "don't know" responses and those not intending to vote may vary between polling organisations. When available, seat projections determined by the polling organisations are displayed below (or in place of) the percentages in a smaller font; 55 seats were required for an absolute majority in the Parliament of Andalusia.

Voting preferences

The table below lists raw, unweighted voting preferences.

Voter turnout

The table below shows registered vote turnout on election day without including voters from the Census of Absent-Residents (CERA).

ProvinceTime
14:0018:0020:00
20042008+/–20042008+/–20042008+/–
Almería40.09%40.32%–0.2362.09%60.52%–1.5774.03%74.66%+0.63
Cádiz38.34%37.19%–1.1558.93%55.85%–3.0870.79%68.12%–2.67
Córdoba43.22%39.91%–3.3165.57%60.88%–4.6979.64%76.62%–3.02
Granada42.03%39.98%–2.0564.61%61.01%–3.6077.54%75.89%–1.65
Huelva37.20%36.24%–0.9659.01%55.62%–3.3973.82%70.40%–3.42
Jaén40.91%38.97%–1.9464.97%61.25%–3.7281.25%79.26%–1.99
Málaga41.02%39.93%–1.0961.73%59.49%–2.2472.94%72.31%–0.63
Seville42.51%36.26%–6.2565.89%60.72%–5.1777.79%74.38%–3.41
Total40.99%39.07%–1.9263.16%59.51%–3.6575.85%73.65%–2.20
Sources[84] [85]

Results

Overall

← Summary of the 9 March 2008 Parliament of Andalusia election results →
Parties and alliancesPopular voteSeats
Votes%±ppTotal+/−
Spanish Socialist Workers' Party of Andalusia (PSOE–A)2,178,296 48.41 –1.9556 –5
People's Party (PP)1,730,154 38.45 +6.6747 +10
United Left/The Greens–Assembly for Andalusia (IULV–CA)317,562 7.06 –0.456 ±0
Andalusian Coalition (CA)1124,243 2.76 –5.530 –5
Union, Progress and Democracy (UPyD)27,712 0.62 New0 ±0
The Greens (LV)25,886 0.58 New0 ±0
Party of Almería (PdeAL)14,806 0.33 New0 ±0
Andalusian Convergence (CAnda)7,862 0.17 New0 ±0
Citizens–Party of the Citizenry (C's)6,024 0.13 New0 ±0
Republican Left (IR)4,815 0.11 +0.040 ±0
Humanist Party (PH)3,951 0.09 –0.040 ±0
Communist Party of the Andalusian People (PCPA)2,743 0.06 New0 ±0
Internationalist Solidarity and Self-Management (SAIn)2,729 0.06 New0 ±0
Spanish Phalanx of the CNSO (FE–JONS)1,763 0.04 –0.060 ±0
Andalusian Social Democratic Party (PSDA)1,477 0.03 –0.010 ±0
Family and Life Party (PFyV)890 0.02 New0 ±0
Christian Positivist Party (PPCr)780 0.02 New0 ±0
Blank ballots47,920 1.06 –0.33
Total4,499,613 109 ±0
Valid votes4,499,613 99.37 +0.02
Invalid votes28,658 0.63 –0.02
Votes cast / turnout4,528,271 72.67 –1.99
Abstentions1,702,816 27.33 +1.99
Registered voters6,231,087
Sources[86] [87] [88]

Distribution by constituency

ConstituencyPSOE–APPIULV–CA
data-sort-type="number"%data-sort-type="number"Sdata-sort-type="number"%data-sort-type="number"Sdata-sort-type="number"%data-sort-type="number"S
Almería39.1549.373.8
Cádiz47.8838.366.61
Córdoba46.6637.959.51
Granada46.1642.067.31
Huelva52.0635.247.61
Jaén53.3736.656.1
Málaga43.2743.687.11
Seville54.41131.767.31
Total48.45638.5477.16
Sources

Aftermath

Government formation

Investiture
Manuel Chaves (PSOE–A)
Ballot →17 April 2008
Required majority →55 out of 109
Abstentions
Sources

2009 investiture

On 7 April 2009, Manuel Chaves resigned as regional President in order to become Third Deputy Prime Minister in the Second Zapatero Government, being succeeded as acting officeholder by Vice President Gaspar Zarrías. On 22 April, José Antonio Griñán was elected as new President by the Parliament of Andalusia.

Investiture
José Antonio Griñán (PSOE–A)
Ballot →22 April 2009
Required majority →55 out of 109
Abstentions
Absentees
Sources

References

Opinion poll sources
Other

Notes and References

  1. Ley Orgánica 2/2007, de 19 de marzo, de reforma del Estatuto de Autonomía para Andalucía] ]. Organic Law . 2 . es . 19 March 2007 . 16 September 2017.
  2. Ley 1/1986, de 2 de enero, Electoral de Andalucía . Law . 1 . es . 2 January 1986 . 16 September 2017.
  3. Web site: Gallagher . Michael . 30 July 2012 . Effective threshold in electoral systems . Trinity College, Dublin . https://web.archive.org/web/20170730092518/http://www.tcd.ie/Political_Science/staff/michael_gallagher/ElSystems/Docts/effthresh.php . 22 July 2017. 30 July 2017 .
  4. Ley Orgánica 5/1985, de 19 de junio, del Régimen Electoral General . Organic Law . 5 . es . 19 June 1985 . 28 December 2016.
  5. Ley 6/2006, de 24 de octubre, del Gobierno de la Comunidad Autónoma de Andalucía . Law . 6 . es . 24 October 2006 . 17 September 2017.
  6. News: Pedrote . Isabel . 26 February 2008 . Un plató blanco, cuatro mesas, y un posado ante las cámaras . es . El País . 7 May 2022.
  7. News: 27 February 2008 . El debate de los cuatro candidatos tuvo una cuota de pantalla del 15,7% . es . Diario de Sevilla . 7 May 2022.
  8. News: 2 March 2008 . Segundo asalto . es . Diario Sur . 7 May 2022.
  9. News: 4 March 2008 . 800.000 andaluces ven el debate . es . Diario de Sevilla . 7 May 2022.
  10. Web site: Chaves revalida la mayoría absoluta y los populares suben, según los primeros sondeos . es . El Mundo . 9 March 2008.
  11. Web site: Chaves revalida su mayoría absoluta e IU pierde un escaño . es . Expansión . 9 March 2008.
  12. Web site: El PSOE obtendría la mayoría absoluta en Andalucía según un sondeo de Ipsos . es . Diario Sur . 9 March 2008.
  13. Web site: Chaves repite mayoría absoluta sin agobios . https://web.archive.org/web/20080303230211/http://www.publico.es/espana/055163/chaves/repite/mayoria/absoluta/agobios . dead . 3 March 2008 . es . Público . 2 March 2008 . 26 February 2021 .
  14. News: Chaves revalida la mayoría absoluta . es . El País . 1 March 2008 .
  15. Web site: Arenas sigue recortando distancia y deja a Chaves al filo de perder la mayoría absoluta . es . ABC Sevilla . 2 March 2008.
  16. Web site: El PSOE mantiene su fortaleza, con nueve puntos de ventaja sobre el PP . es . Diario Sur . 1 March 2008.
  17. Web site: El PSOE y el PP se estancan en porcentaje de votos a costa de la ligera subida de las minorías . es . ABC Sevilla . 25 February 2008.
  18. Web site: Manuel Chaves conservará el poder aunque aumenta el descontento por su gestión . es . El Mundo . 24 February 2008.
  19. Web site: Intención de voto en Andalucía . es . El Mundo . 24 February 2008.
  20. Web site: El PP crece y sigue recortando distancias con respecto al PSOE . es . ABC Sevilla . 18 February 2008.
  21. Web site: El PP sube siete puntos respecto a 2004, aunque el PSOE repite victoria . es . ABC Sevilla . 11 February 2008.
  22. News: El PSOE aumenta su victoria electoral en el nuevo sondeo de Cepes . es . El País . 19 February 2008. Méndez . Juan .
  23. Web site: El PSOE revalidará la mayoría absoluta en Andalucía . es . Cadena SER . 15 February 2008.
  24. Web site: Pulsómetro 18/02/2008 . https://web.archive.org/web/20080405113132/http://www.cadenaser.com/static/pulsometro/anteriores/encuesta_080218.htm . dead . 5 April 2008 . es . Cadena SER . 18 February 2008.
  25. Web site: Espectacular subida de Coalición Andalucista en la encuesta de Antena 3 y Onda Cero . es . Andalucía Sur, El Diario Andaluz . 6 February 2008.
  26. Web site: Pre-electoral elecciones generales y al Parlamento de Andalucía, 2008 (Estudio nº 2750. Enero-Febrero 2008) . es . CIS . 15 February 2008.
  27. Web site: El PP crece seis diputados aunque Chaves revalidaría la mayoría absoluta, según el CIS . es . ABC Sevilla . 16 February 2008.
  28. Web site: El PSOE perdería la mayoría absoluta y sacaría 8 puntos al PP, según una encuesta de Cepes . es . EuropaSur . 28 January 2008.
  29. News: La encuesta de CEPES da sólo ocho puntos de ventaja al PSOE . es . El País . 29 January 2008. Méndez . Juan .
  30. Web site: Encuesta en Andalucía . es . El Blog de Rogelio Orts . 28 January 2008 . 28 June 2018 . https://web.archive.org/web/20180628233432/http://rogelioorts.blogspot.com/2008/01/encuesta-en-andaluca.html . 28 June 2018 . dead .
  31. Web site: Un sondeo del PP asegura que el PSOE perderá la mayoría absoluta en el Parlamento . es . ABC Sevilla . 16 January 2008.
  32. News: Monguió . Fernando Pérez . 16 January 2008 . Dos sondeos discrepan de la mayoría absoluta de los socialistas . es . Two polls disagree about the absolute majority of socialists . El País .
  33. Web site: Estudio General de Opinión Pública de Andalucía. EGOPA Otoño 2007 . es . CADPEA . 21 January 2008.
  34. News: Chaves revalida su mayoría absoluta, el PP sube y bajan las minorías . es . El País . 22 January 2008. Pedrote . Isabel .
  35. Web site: El PSOE conservará la mayoría absoluta en Andalucía . https://web.archive.org/web/20080111021204/http://www.publico.es/espana/035473/psoe/conserva/mayoria/absoluta/andalucia . dead . 11 January 2008 . es . Público . 9 January 2008 . 26 February 2021 .
  36. Web site: Barómetro de Opinión Pública de Andalucía 2007 (Diciembre, 2007) . es . IESA . 14 December 2007.
  37. News: El PSOE andaluz revalidaría la mayoría absoluta, según el barómetro del IESA . es . El País . 15 December 2007. Monguió . Fernando Pérez .
  38. News: Un sondeo del PA da también la mayoría absoluta a los socialistas . es . El País . 16 September 2007.
  39. Web site: Estudio General de Opinión Pública de Andalucía. EGOPA Verano 2007 . es . CADPEA . 12 September 2007.
  40. Web site: Una encuesta vaticina que el PSOE sacará 15 puntos al PP en las autonómicas . es . ABC Sevilla . 13 September 2007.
  41. News: El PSOE aventaja en 15,3 puntos al PP en Andalucía . es . El País . 13 September 2007 .
  42. Web site: El PSOE perdería cinco escaños pero mantendría la mayoría absoluta, según un sondeo . es . ABC Sevilla . 8 March 2007.
  43. News: Un sondeo atribuye al PSOE una ventaja de 15 puntos sobre el PP en Andalucía . es . El País . 28 February 2007 .
  44. Web site: El PSOE mantiene la mayoría absoluta tras el referéndum del Estatuto . es . ABC Sevilla . 28 February 2007.
  45. News: Un sondeo del PP quita al PSOE la mayoría absoluta . es . El País . 26 February 2007.
  46. Web site: El PSOE revalidaría su mayoría absoluta en Andalucía, según el Pulsómetro . es . Cadena SER . 6 February 2007.
  47. News: El PSOE mantiene una ventaja de 17 puntos . es . El País . 7 February 2007 .
  48. News: El PSOE y el PP reducen su distancia, según una encuesta . es . El País . 18 December 2006 .
  49. Web site: Barómetro de Opinión Pública de Andalucía 2006 (Enero, 2007) . es . IESA . 12 January 2007.
  50. News: El 49% de los andaluces está seguro de que votará en el referéndum del Estatuto . es . El País . 13 January 2007. Barbero . Luis .
  51. Web site: Estudio General de Opinión Pública de Andalucía. EGOPA Otoño 2006 . es . CADPEA . 26 January 2007.
  52. Web site: El PSOE-A mantendría su hegemonía . es . ABC Sevilla . 27 January 2007.
  53. Web site: El PSOE volvería a ganar las elecciones pero baja tres puntos mientras el PP sube cinco . es . ABC Sevilla . 15 May 2006.
  54. Web site: Estudio General de Opinión Pública de Andalucía. EGOPA Verano 2006 . es . CADPEA . July 2006.
  55. News: El PSOE andaluz saca 13 puntos de ventaja al PP, según un sondeo . es . El País . 12 June 2006 .
  56. Web site: El PP recorta la distancia con el PSOE hasta los 8,2 puntos, pero no impide su mayoría absoluta . es . ABC Sevilla . 15 May 2006.
  57. Web site: Un sondeo para Vocento sitúa al PSOE al borde de perder la mayoría absoluta . es . ABC Sevilla . 1 March 2006.
  58. News: El PSOE saca al PP en Andalucía 13,5 puntos de ventaja, según un sondeo . es . El País . 28 February 2006 .
  59. Web site: El PP se coloca a 7,5 puntos del PSOE, que perdería la mayoría absoluta en la Junta . es . ABC Sevilla . 16 February 2006.
  60. News: Una encuesta de las empresas de economía social da una diferencia de 11 puntos del PSOE sobre el PP . es . El País . 21 February 2006 .
  61. Web site: El PSOE baja y el PP sube . es . ABC Sevilla . 21 February 2006.
  62. Web site: El PSOE volvería a ganar con un escaño más y le saca veinte puntos de ventaja al PP . es . ABC Sevilla . 22 January 2006.
  63. Web site: Estudio General de Opinión Pública de Andalucía. EGOPA Otoño 2005 . es . CADPEA . 10 February 2006.
  64. Web site: El 78% de los andaluces cree que el Gobierno central favorece a unas comunidades más que a otras . es . ABC Sevilla . 11 February 2006.
  65. Web site: Barómetro de Opinión Pública de Andalucía 2005 (Enero, 2006) . es . IESA . 19 January 2006.
  66. News: Una encuesta otorga el 47,8% de los votos al PSOE, que conservaría la mayoría absoluta . es . El País . 20 January 2006. Barbero . Luis .
  67. News: El PSOE aventaja al PP en 15 puntos, según un sondeo de 'El Correo' . es . El País . 12 December 2005.
  68. Web site: El PP, único partido que crece y recorta su distancia con el PSOE a 10,5 puntos . es . ABC Córdoba . 28 November 2005.
  69. Web site: El PSOE baja tres puntos en intención de voto, pero el PP baja aún más . es . ABC Sevilla . 2 October 2005.
  70. Web site: Estudio General de Opinión Pública de Andalucía. EGOPA Verano 2005 . es . CADPEA . July 2005.
  71. Web site: El PSOE baja 2 puntos y el PP sube 1,3 pero la distancia es de 12 puntos en intención de voto . es . ABC Sevilla . 10 July 2005.
  72. Web site: El PSOE conserva su ventaja sobre el PP, IU-CA sigue igual y el PA baja . es . ABC Sevilla . 8 May 2005.
  73. Web site: Todos de acuerdo: El PSOE repetiría la actual mayoría absoluta en Andalucía . es . ABC Sevilla . 1 March 2005.
  74. News: El PSOE saca al PP 18,5 puntos de ventaja en intención directa de voto en Andalucía . es . El País . 28 February 2005 .
  75. Web site: El 57% de los andaluces cree que debería haber alternancia en el Gobierno, según una encuesta del PP . es . ABC Sevilla . 26 February 2005.
  76. Web site: El PSOE obtendría el 51,6% de los votos y subiría un punto desde el 14-M . es . ABC Sevilla . 22 February 2005.
  77. Web site: El PSOE consolida su hegemonía política mientras que el PP registra un leve repunte . es . ABC Sevilla . 28 February 2005.
  78. News: La encuesta del IESA dice que el PSOE volvería a ganar las elecciones con mayoría absoluta propio . es . El País . 15 January 2005. Lucio . Lourdes .
  79. Web site: El PSOE revalidaría la mayoría absoluta si ahora se celebraran elecciones autonómicas . es . ABC Sevilla . 15 January 2005.
  80. Web site: Barómetro de Opinión Pública de Andalucía 2004 (Enero, 2005) . es . IESA . 14 January 2005.
  81. Web site: El PP recorta diferencias con el PSOE, según una encuesta popular . es . ABC Sevilla . 15 November 2004.
  82. Web site: El PSOE tendría mayoría absoluta de nuevo, según un sondeo propio . es . El País . 14 November 2004.
  83. Web site: Un sondeo socialista dice que repetirán la mayoría absoluta y que Chaves es el líder más valorado . es . ABC Sevilla . 14 November 2004.
  84. Web site: 9 March 2008 . Avances de participación . es . juntadeandalucia.es . . 20 February 2022.
  85. Web site: 9 March 2008 . Elecciones autonómicas en Andalucía . es . elmundo.es . . 20 February 2022.
  86. Web site: Elecciones al Parlamento de Andalucía (1982 - 2018) . es . Historia Electoral.com . 25 September 2017.
  87. Web site: Electoral Results Consultation. Parliament of Andalusia. March 2008. Andalusia totals . es . juntadeandalucia.es . . 25 September 2017.
  88. Web site: Parliament of Andalusia election results, 9 March 2008 . 1 April 2008 . es . www.juntaelectoralcentral.es . . 25 September 2017.