| Election Name: | 2004 Andalusian regional election |
| Country: | Andalusia |
| Type: | parliamentary |
| Ongoing: | no |
| Previous Election: | 2000 Andalusian regional election |
| Previous Year: | 2000 |
| Next Election: | 2008 Andalusian regional election |
| Next Year: | 2008 |
| Seats For Election: | All 109 seats in the Parliament of Andalusia |
| Majority Seats: | 55 |
| Opinion Polls: |
|
| Registered: | 6,052,012 2.3% |
| Turnout: | 4,518,545 (74.7%) 6.0 pp |
| Election Date: | 14 March 2004 |
| Leader1: | Manuel Chaves |
| Party1: | PSOE–A |
| Leader Since1: | 19 April 1990 |
| Leaders Seat1: | Cádiz |
| Last Election1: | 52 seats, 44.3% |
| Seats1: | 61 |
| Seat Change1: | 9 |
| Popular Vote1: | 2,260,545 |
| Percentage1: | 50.4% |
| Swing1: | 6.1 pp |
| Leader2: | Teófila Martínez |
| Party2: | People's Party of Andalusia |
| Leader Since2: | 20 February 1999 |
| Leaders Seat2: | Cádiz |
| Last Election2: | 46 seats, 38.0% |
| Seats2: | 37 |
| Seat Change2: | 9 |
| Popular Vote2: | 1,426,774 |
| Percentage2: | 31.8% |
| Swing2: | 6.2 pp |
| Leader3: | Diego Valderas |
| Party3: | United Left/The Greens–Assembly for Andalusia |
| Leader Since3: | 10 October 2000 |
| Leaders Seat3: | Huelva |
| Last Election3: | 6 seats, 8.1% |
| Seats3: | 6 |
| Seat Change3: | 0 |
| Popular Vote3: | 337,030 |
| Percentage3: | 7.5% |
| Swing3: | 0.6 pp |
| Leader4: | Antonio Ortega |
| Party4: | Andalusian Party |
| Leader Since4: | 19 October 1996 |
| Leaders Seat4: | Seville |
| Last Election4: | 5 seats, 7.4% |
| Seats4: | 5 |
| Seat Change4: | 0 |
| Popular Vote4: | 276,674 |
| Percentage4: | 6.2% |
| Swing4: | 1.2 pp |
| Map Size: | 375px |
| President | |
| Before Election: | Manuel Chaves |
| Before Party: | PSOE–A |
| After Election: | Manuel Chaves |
| After Party: | PSOE–A |
The 2004 Andalusian regional election was held on Sunday, 14 March 2004, to elect the 7th Parliament of the autonomous community of Andalusia. All 109 seats in the Parliament were up for election. The election was held simultaneously with the 2004 Spanish general election.
As happened with the concurrent nationwide election, results in Andalusia were heavily influenced by political controversy derived from the 11 March train bombings in Madrid. The ruling Spanish Socialist Workers' Party of Andalusia (PSOE–A) exceeded all opinion poll expectations by securing a comfortable majority. Incumbent Manuel Chaves was thus able to be re-elected for a fifth consecutive term as President of the Regional Government of Andalusia.
The Parliament of Andalusia was the devolved, unicameral legislature of the autonomous community of Andalusia, having legislative power in regional matters as defined by the Spanish Constitution and the Andalusian Statute of Autonomy, as well as the ability to vote confidence in or withdraw it from a regional president.[1] Voting for the Parliament was on the basis of universal suffrage, which comprised all nationals over 18 years of age, registered in Andalusia and in full enjoyment of their political rights.
The 109 members of the Parliament of Andalusia were elected using the D'Hondt method and a closed list proportional representation, with an electoral threshold of three percent of valid votes—which included blank ballots—being applied in each constituency. Seats were allocated to constituencies, corresponding to the provinces of Almería, Cádiz, Córdoba, Granada, Huelva, Jaén, Málaga and Seville, with each being allocated an initial minimum of eight seats and the remaining 45 being distributed in proportion to their populations (provided that the number of seats in each province did not exceed two times that of any other).[1] [2]
As a result of the aforementioned allocation, each Parliament constituency was entitled the following seats:
| Seats | Constituencies | |
|---|---|---|
| 18 | Seville | |
| 16 | Málaga | |
| 15 | Cádiz | |
| 13 | Córdoba, Granada | |
| 12 | Jaén | |
| 11 | Almería, Huelva |
The use of the D'Hondt method might result in a higher effective threshold, depending on the district magnitude.[3]
The term of the Parliament of Andalusia expired four years after the date of its previous election, unless it was dissolved earlier. Election day was to take place between the thirtieth and the sixtieth day from the date of expiry of parliament barring any date within from 1 July to 31 August. The previous election was held on 12 March 2000, which meant that the legislature's term would have expired on 12 March 2004. The election was required to take place no later than the sixtieth day from the date of expiry of parliament on the condition that it was not held between 1 July and 31 August, setting the latest possible election date for the Parliament on Tuesday, 11 May 2004.[1] [2] [4] [5] [6]
The president had the prerogative to dissolve the Parliament of Andalusia and call a snap election, provided that no motion of no confidence was in process and that dissolution did not occur before one year had elapsed since the previous one. In the event of an investiture process failing to elect a regional president within a two-month period from the first ballot, the candidate from the party with the highest number of seats was to be deemed automatically elected.[1] [4] [5] [6]
The electoral law allowed for parties and federations registered in the interior ministry, coalitions and groupings of electors to present lists of candidates. Parties and federations intending to form a coalition ahead of an election were required to inform the relevant Electoral Commission within ten days of the election call, whereas groupings of electors needed to secure the signature of at least one percent of the electorate in the constituencies for which they sought election, disallowing electors from signing for more than one list of candidates.[2] [7]
Below is a list of the main parties and electoral alliances which contested the election:
| Candidacy | Parties and alliances | Leading candidate | Ideology | Previous result | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Votes (%) | Seats | |||||||||
| PSOE–A | Manuel Chaves | Social democracy | 44.32% | |||||||
| PP | Teófila Martínez | Conservatism Christian democracy | 38.02% | |||||||
| IULV–CA | Diego Valderas | Socialism Communism | 8.11% | |||||||
| PA | Antonio Ortega | Andalusian nationalism Social democracy | 7.43% | |||||||
The tables below list opinion polling results in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first and using the dates when the survey fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. Where the fieldwork dates are unknown, the date of publication is given instead. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed with its background shaded in the leading party's colour. If a tie ensues, this is applied to the figures with the highest percentages. The "Lead" column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the parties with the highest percentages in a poll.
The table below lists weighted voting intention estimates. Refusals are generally excluded from the party vote percentages, while question wording and the treatment of "don't know" responses and those not intending to vote may vary between polling organisations. When available, seat projections determined by the polling organisations are displayed below (or in place of) the percentages in a smaller font; 55 seats were required for an absolute majority in the Parliament of Andalusia.
| Polling firm/Commissioner | Fieldwork date | Sample size | Turnout | IULV | Lead | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2004 regional election | 14 Mar 2004 | 74.7 | 50.4 | 31.8 | 7.5 | 6.2 | 0.9 | 18.6 | ||
| Sigma Dos/Antena 3[10] | 14 Mar 2004 | ? | ? | 48.2 | 34.4 | 7.1 | 6.5 | – | 13.8 | |
| Ipsos–Eco/RTVE[11] | 14 Mar 2004 | ? | ? | 47.5 | 32.8 | 8.8 | 6.6 | – | 14.7 | |
| Metra Seis/PA[12] | 27 Feb–3 Mar 2004 | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | |
| Vox Pública/Diario Córdoba[13] | 29 Feb 2004 | ? | ? | 44.0 | 37.5 | 7.2 | 5.7 | – | 6.5 | |
| Opina/El País[14] [15] | 26–27 Feb 2004 | 1,500 | ? | 47.0 | 36.5 | 7.0 | 6.0 | – | 10.5 | |
| TNS Demoscopia/Vocento[16] [17] | 12–20 Feb 2004 | 3,613 | 67–68 | 47.1 | 36.7 | 6.9 | 7.3 | – | 10.4 | |
| CIS[18] [19] | 24 Jan–15 Feb 2004 | 4,147 | 75.2 | 47.1 | 36.1 | 8.1 | 6.8 | 0.2 | 11.0 | |
| Idea Asesores/PP[20] [21] | 14 Feb 2004 | ? | ? | 42.0 | 39.8 | ? | ? | ? | 2.2 | |
| Opina/CEA[22] [23] | 2–7 Feb 2004 | 3,200 | ? | 45.5 | 37.5 | 7.5 | 6.0 | 0.5 | 8.0 | |
| Sigma Dos/El Mundo[24] [25] | 2–5 Feb 2004 | 2,500 | ? | 44.9 | 37.7 | 7.4 | 5.6 | – | 7.2 | |
| CADPEA/UGR[26] [27] | 3–23 Dec 2003 | 3,200 | 72.6 | 45.2 | 37.1 | 7.8 | 6.7 | 0.8 | 8.1 | |
| Metra Seis/PA[28] | 24 Nov 2003 | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | |
| IESA/CSIC[29] [30] | 1–21 Nov 2003 | 3,700 | 70 | 46.7 | 37.2 | 8.0 | 7.4 | 0.3 | 9.5 | |
| Idea Asesores/PP[31] [32] | 22 Sep–2 Oct 2003 | 3,000 | ? | 42.8 | 39.5 | 8.5 | 5.5 | 0.6 | 3.3 | |
| CADPEA/UGR[33] [34] [35] | 1–19 Jul 2003 | 3,200 | 74.2 | 45.1 | 37.3 | 8.2 | 6.6 | 0.8 | 7.8 | |
| 2003 local elections | 25 May 2003 | 65.6 | 38.2 | 30.9 | 12.8 | 8.8 | 1.5 | 7.3 | ||
| Demoscopia/Grupo Joly[36] [37] | 28 Feb 2003 | ? | ? | 47.9 | 34.7 | 7.7 | 8.2 | – | 13.2 | |
| Opina/El País[38] [39] | 18–19 Feb 2003 | 1,200 | ? | 50.5 | 30.0 | 9.5 | 7.5 | – | 20.5 | |
| Sigma Dos/ABC[40] | 14–17 Feb 2003 | 1,000 | ? | 49.8 | 33.7 | 7.5 | 6.1 | – | 16.1 | |
| Idea Asesores/PP[41] [42] | 3–12 Feb 2003 | 2,500 | ? | 43.2 | 39.8 | 6.9 | 6.6 | 1.1 | 3.4 | |
| CADPEA/UGR[43] | 31 Jan 2003 | 3,500 | ? | 46.9 | 34.9 | 7.7 | 7.8 | 0.4 | 12.0 | |
| IESA/CSIC[44] [45] | 15 Nov–10 Dec 2002 | 3,884 | 70 | 47.9 | 35.2 | 7.5 | 7.1 | 0.5 | 12.7 | |
| Inner/PSOE[46] | 10 Nov 2002 | 431 | ? | 51.6 | 39.1 | 7.6 | 1.7 | – | 12.5 | |
| CIS[47] [48] [49] [50] | 9 Sep–9 Oct 2002 | 982 | 70.9 | 45.0 | 37.2 | 7.1 | 8.2 | – | 7.8 | |
| Sigma Dos/Sur[51] [52] | 28 Feb 2002 | ? | ? | 45.0 | 40.7 | 6.8 | 5.0 | – | 4.3 | |
| Idea Asesores/PP[53] | 28 Feb 2002 | ? | ? | 41.9 | 40.6 | 7.4 | 5.7 | 2.6 | 1.3 | |
| Opina/El País[54] [55] | 18–19 Feb 2002 | 1,200 | ? | 47.3 | 35.0 | 7.3 | 7.8 | 0.5 | 12.3 | |
| PSOE[56] | 31 Jan–5 Feb 2002 | 1,200 | ? | 45.7 | 35.5 | 8.6 | 7.9 | – | 10.2 | |
| IESA/CSIC[57] [58] | 15 Nov–10 Dec 2001 | 3,696 | ? | 46.8 | 35.8 | 8.9 | 7.1 | – | 11.0 | |
| Opina/CEA[59] [60] | 15–27 Oct 2001 | 3,200 | ? | 44.2 | 39.5 | 7.4 | 6.9 | – | 4.7 | |
| PSOE[61] | 7–15 Jun 2001 | 2,045 | ? | 50.9 | 34.1 | – | – | – | 16.8 | |
| Sigma Dos[62] | 28 Feb 2001 | ? | ? | 43.2 | 40.3 | 7.1 | 7.4 | – | 2.9 | |
| IESA/CSIC[63] [64] | 10 Nov–5 Dec 2000 | 3,645 | ? | 46.6 | 35.7 | 9.4 | 7.8 | – | 10.9 | |
| 2000 regional election | 12 Mar 2000 | 68.7 | 44.3 | 38.0 | 8.1 | 7.4 | – | 6.3 | ||
The table below lists raw, unweighted voting preferences.
| Polling firm/Commissioner | Fieldwork date | Sample size | IULV | Lead | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2004 regional election | 14 Mar 2004 | 37.9 | 24.0 | 5.7 | 4.7 | 0.7 | 24.2 | 13.9 | |||
| CIS | 24 Jan–15 Feb 2004 | 4,147 | 37.8 | 17.6 | 5.1 | 3.2 | 0.1 | 28.6 | 5.9 | 20.2 | |
| CADPEA/UGR | 3–23 Dec 2003 | 3,200 | 36.6 | 18.8 | – | – | – | 32.3 | – | 17.8 | |
| IESA/CSIC | 1–21 Nov 2003 | 3,700 | 32.3 | 24.9 | 6.0 | 5.2 | – | 22.8 | 6.5 | 7.4 | |
| Idea Asesores/PP | 3–12 Feb 2003 | 2,500 | 25.3 | 22.3 | 4.1 | 4.9 | 0.3 | 35.0 | 8.1 | 3.0 | |
| IESA/CSIC | 15 Nov–10 Dec 2002 | 3,884 | 35.3 | 22.2 | 5.1 | 4.9 | – | 23.9 | 5.3 | 13.1 | |
| CIS | 9 Sep–9 Oct 2002 | 982 | 29.3 | 15.4 | 4.5 | 5.0 | – | 34.3 | 9.1 | 13.9 | |
| IESA/CSIC | 15 Nov–10 Dec 2001 | 3,696 | 32.2 | 23.7 | 6.3 | 4.9 | – | 24.9 | 5.1 | 8.5 | |
| Opina/CEA | 15–27 Oct 2001 | 3,200 | 28.2 | 21.0 | 4.2 | 5.2 | – | – | – | 7.2 | |
| Demoscopia/El País[65] [66] | 15–20 Feb 2001 | 1,205 | 23.7 | 22.7 | 3.2 | 6.0 | – | – | – | 1.0 | |
| IESA/CSIC | 10 Nov–5 Dec 2000 | 3,645 | 31.8 | 23.4 | 6.3 | 5.2 | – | 26.0 | 5.2 | 8.4 | |
| 2000 regional election | 12 Mar 2000 | 30.6 | 26.4 | 5.6 | 5.2 | – | 30.2 | 4.2 | |||
The table below lists opinion polling on the victory preferences for each party in the event of a regional election taking place.
| Polling firm/Commissioner | Fieldwork date | Sample size | IULV | Other/ None | Lead | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Opina/El País | 26–27 Feb 2004 | 1,500 | 39.2 | 23.5 | 4.3 | 3.6 | 0.3 | 1.4 | 37.7 | 15.7 | ||
| CIS | 24 Jan–15 Feb 2004 | 4,147 | 44.4 | 20.4 | 5.5 | 3.5 | 0.2 | 1.2 | 24.8 | 24.0 | ||
| Opina/El País | 18–19 Feb 2003 | 1,200 | 35.8 | 19.0 | 4.2 | 4.8 | 0.2 | 0.8 | 35.2 | 16.8 | ||
| Opina/El País | 18–19 Feb 2002 | 1,200 | 34.5 | 21.3 | 4.3 | 3.4 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 35.7 | 13.2 |
The table below lists opinion polling on the perceived likelihood of victory for each party in the event of a regional election taking place.
| Polling firm/Commissioner | Fieldwork date | Sample size | IULV | Other/ None | Lead | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Opina/El País | 26–27 Feb 2004 | 1,500 | 73.6 | 7.5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 18.6 | 66.1 | ||
| CIS | 24 Jan–15 Feb 2004 | 4,147 | 72.9 | 5.4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | – | 0.1 | 21.0 | 67.5 | ||
| Inner/PSOE[67] | 20 Oct–7 Nov 2003 | 1,200 | 65.1 | 14.6 | – | – | – | 1.8 | 18.5 | 50.5 | ||
| Opina/El País | 18–19 Feb 2003 | 1,200 | 63.6 | 5.4 | 0.3 | 0.8 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 29.7 | 58.2 | ||
| Opina/El País | 18–19 Feb 2002 | 1,200 | 53.5 | 11.8 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.0 | 33.2 | 41.7 |
The table below lists opinion polling on leader preferences to become president of the Regional Government of Andalusia.
| Polling firm/Commissioner | Fieldwork date | Sample size | Other/ None/ Not care | Lead | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vox Pública/Diario Córdoba | 29 Feb 2004 | ? | 45.8 | 22.1 | – | – | – | – | – | 23.7 | ||
| Opina/El País | 26–27 Feb 2004 | 1,500 | 38.0 | 22.5 | 3.2 | 3.2 | – | 2.2 | 30.9 | 15.5 | ||
| CIS | 24 Jan–15 Feb 2004 | 4,147 | 46.7 | 19.1 | 3.3 | 2.0 | 2.2 | 4.1 | 22.7 | 27.6 | ||
| Inner/PSOE | 20 Oct–7 Nov 2003 | 1,200 | 55.9 | 32.7 | – | – | – | 7.9 | 3.5 | 23.2 |
| Parties and alliances | Popular vote | Seats | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Votes | % | ±pp | Total | +/− | |||
| Spanish Socialist Workers' Party of Andalusia (PSOE–A) | 2,260,545 | 50.36 | +6.04 | 61 | +9 | ||
| People's Party (PP) | 1,426,774 | 31.78 | –6.24 | 37 | –9 | ||
| United Left/The Greens–Assembly for Andalusia (IULV–CA) | 337,030 | 7.51 | –0.60 | 6 | ±0 | ||
| Andalusian Party (PA) | 276,674 | 6.16 | –1.27 | 5 | ±0 | ||
| Andalusian Forum (FA) | 53,288 | 1.19 | New | 0 | ±0 | ||
| Socialist Party of Andalusia (PSA) | 42,219 | 0.94 | New | 0 | ±0 | ||
| Humanist Party (PH) | 5,670 | 0.13 | +0.02 | 0 | ±0 | ||
| New Andalusian Green Left (NIVA) | 5,065 | 0.11 | New | 0 | ±0 | ||
| Andalusia Assembly (A) | 4,544 | 0.10 | –0.01 | 0 | ±0 | ||
| Spanish Phalanx of the CNSO (FE–JONS)1 | 4,437 | 0.10 | +0.07 | 0 | ±0 | ||
| Party of Precarious Workers (PTPRE) | 3,321 | 0.07 | New | 0 | ±0 | ||
| Republican Left (IR) | 3,130 | 0.07 | New | 0 | ±0 | ||
| Andalusian Social Democratic Party (PSDA) | 1,642 | 0.04 | New | 0 | ±0 | ||
| Left Assembly–Initiative for Andalusia (A–IZ) | 1,334 | 0.03 | New | 0 | ±0 | ||
| Another Democracy is Possible (ODeP) | 525 | 0.01 | New | 0 | ±0 | ||
| National Union (UN) | 523 | 0.01 | ±0.00 | 0 | ±0 | ||
| Blank ballots | 62,451 | 1.39 | +0.10 | ||||
| Total | 4,489,172 | 109 | ±0 | ||||
| Valid votes | 4,489,172 | 99.35 | +0.01 | ||||
| Invalid votes | 28,658 | 0.65 | –0.01 | ||||
| Votes cast / turnout | 4,518,545 | 74.66 | +5.95 | ||||
| Abstentions | 1,533,467 | 25.34 | –5.95 | ||||
| Registered voters | 6,052,012 | ||||||
| Sources[68] [69] [70] | |||||||
| Constituency | PSOE–A | PP | IULV–CA | PA | |||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| data-sort-type="number" | % | data-sort-type="number" | S | data-sort-type="number" | % | data-sort-type="number" | S | data-sort-type="number" | % | data-sort-type="number" | S | data-sort-type="number" | % | data-sort-type="number" | S |
| Almería | 46.1 | 6 | 42.0 | 5 | 3.8 | − | 4.4 | − | |||||||
| Cádiz | 47.8 | 8 | 32.0 | 5 | 6.6 | 1 | 7.3 | 1 | |||||||
| Córdoba | 45.9 | 7 | 30.8 | 4 | 11.2 | 1 | 6.4 | 1 | |||||||
| Granada | 49.0 | 7 | 35.4 | 5 | 7.1 | 1 | 4.3 | − | |||||||
| Huelva | 52.9 | 7 | 28.8 | 3 | 7.3 | − | 8.0 | 1 | |||||||
| Jaén | 53.1 | 7 | 32.4 | 4 | 6.7 | 1 | 5.7 | − | |||||||
| Málaga | 47.5 | 8 | 34.6 | 6 | 7.6 | 1 | 6.7 | 1 | |||||||
| Seville | 55.9 | 11 | 26.2 | 5 | 7.9 | 1 | 6.1 | 1 | |||||||
| Total | 50.4 | 61 | 31.8 | 37 | 7.5 | 6 | 6.2 | 5 | |||||||
| Sources | |||||||||||||||
| Investiture Manuel Chaves (PSOE–A) | |||
| Ballot → | 21 April 2004 | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Required majority → | 55 out of 109 | ||
| Sources | |||