| Birth Name: | Allan Jay Lichtman |
| Birth Date: | April 4, 1947 |
| Birth Place: | Brooklyn, New York, U.S. |
| Party: | Democratic |
| Alma Mater: | Brandeis University (BA) Harvard University (PhD) |
| Notable Works: | The Keys to the White House |
| Spouse: | Karyn Strickler |
| Partners: | --> |
| Children: | 2 |
| Relatives: | Ronnie Lichtman (sister) |
Allan Jay Lichtman (; born April 4, 1947) is an American historian. He has taught at American University in Washington, D.C., since 1973.
Lichtman created the Keys to the White House model with Soviet seismologist Vladimir Keilis-Borok in 1981. The model uses 13 true/false criteria to predict whether the presidential candidate of the incumbent party will win or lose the next election.[1] Using this model, Lichtman has accurately predicted the outcome of most U.S. presidential elections since 1984, with the exceptions of 2000, where he predicted an Al Gore victory (but did caution his model only pertained to the popular vote), and 2016, where he predicted a Donald Trump popular vote victory and afterwards revised his model to note it picked the Electoral College winner.[2] [3] [4] He ran for the U.S. Senate seat from Maryland in 2006, finishing in sixth place in the Democratic primary. In 2017, Lichtman published The Case for Impeachment, laying out multiple arguments for the impeachment of Donald Trump.
Lichtman was born in the Brownsville neighborhood of Brooklyn in New York City. He graduated from Stuyvesant High School. Lichtman is Jewish. [5] [6] Lichtman received his B.A. degree from Brandeis University in history in 1967, and graduated Phi Beta Kappa and magna cum laude while also running track and wrestling. In 1973, Lichtman received his Ph.D. from Harvard University as a Graduate Prize Fellow, also in history.[7]
Lichtman began teaching at American University in 1973, rising to chair of the History department, and was named scholar/professor of the year in 1993.[8]
Outside of the classroom, Lichtman has testified as an expert witness on civil rights in more than 70 cases for the U.S. Department of Justice and for civil rights groups such as the NAACP, the Mexican American Legal Defense and Education Fund and Puerto Rican Legal Defense and Education Fund, and the Southern Poverty Law Center. He also consulted for Vice President Al Gore and Senator Ted Kennedy. He assisted the U.S. Commission on Civil Rights investigation into voting irregularities in Florida during the 2000 election,[9] submitting his statistical analysis of balloting problems. Lichtman concluded "there were major racial disparities in ballot rejection rates".[10]
In the early 1980s while living in California as a visiting professor at the California Institute of Technology, Lichtman had a 17-show stint on the game show Tic Tac Dough. He won $100,000 during his time on the show.[11]
Lichtman has provided commentary for networks and cable channels such as CNN, MSNBC, and Fox News.[12] [13] [14] Lichtman is best known for the "Keys" system, presented in his books The Thirteen Keys to the Presidency and The Keys to the White House. The system uses thirteen historical factors to predict whether the popular vote in the election for president of the United States will be won by the candidate of the party holding the presidency (regardless of whether the president is the candidate). The keys were selected based on their correlations with the presidential election results from 1860 through 1980, using statistical methods adapted from the work of geophysicist Vladimir Keilis-Borok, which claims to predict earthquakes. The system then correctly predicted the popular vote winner in each of the elections between 1984 and 2012, including a correct prediction of Gore as the popular vote winner in 2000.[15] Lichtman incorrectly predicted that Donald Trump would win the popular vote in 2016.[3] In the 2020 presidential election, Lichtman correctly predicted that Democrat Joe Biden would defeat Republican Donald Trump in both the popular vote and the electoral college.[16]
Lichtman, in 2013, authored FDR and the Jews, where he portrays Franklin D. Roosevelt as a pragmatic leader who, despite political constraints, made significant efforts to aid Jews during World War II, balancing domestic priorities and the fear of anti-Semitic backlash.[17] Lichtman, along with co-author Richard Breitman, was awarded the National Jewish Book Award, 2013 for this book.[18]
In April 2017, Lichtman authored the book The Case for Impeachment, laying out multiple arguments for the impeachment of Donald Trump. The Financial Times gave The Case for Impeachment a positive review, writing: "Lichtman's powerful book is a reminder that we are only at the start of the Trump investigations." The Washington Post called it "striking to see the full argument unfold". New York Journal of Books recommended it as a resource, "if you are a member of Congress trying to grapple with all that this administration has wrought." The Hill gave the author praise, writing: "Lichtman has written what may be the most important book of the year." CBC News consulted law scholars that said the fulfillment of Lichtman's impeachment prediction was unlikely, especially with a Republican-controlled U.S. House of Representatives. Trump was impeached by the U. S. House of Representatives on December 18, 2019, but acquitted by the U. S. Senate on February 5, 2020.
In 2020, Lichtman published Repeal the Second Amendment. In the book, Lichtman argues that the only way to solve the gun violence epidemic in America is by repealing the Second Amendment.
As of 2023, Lichtman hosts weekly live streams, called Lichtman Live, on his YouTube channel.[19] [20]
In 2001, Lichtman produced a supplemental report to the U.S. Commission on Civil Rights examining the racial impact of ballot rejection in Florida's 2000 presidential election.[21]
See main article: 2006 United States Senate election in Maryland. Lichtman announced his candidacy for the Democratic nomination for United States Senate from Maryland in the 2006 election to replace Senator Paul Sarbanes; in a playful opening television ad, he pledged not to be a "conventional politician" and jumped into the C&O Canal in a business suit.[22] Lichtman was seen as a long-shot candidate with low support in polls.[23] He criticized front-runner U.S. Representative Ben Cardin for his votes in favor of funding for the Iraq War.[23] When Lichtman was not invited by the League of Women Voters to the Maryland Public Television debate, he and other excluded candidates (Josh Rales and Dennis F. Rasmussen) protested outside the Baltimore County television studio; Lichtman and his wife were arrested after a confrontation with a security guard.[24] In 2006, both were acquitted on all charges.[25]
Lichtman lost in the primary election to Cardin, receiving 6,919 votes (1.2%), landing him in 6th place in a field of 18. In October 2012, The Washington Post reported that he was still paying off a mortgage he took out in order to help fund his campaign.[26]
In the run-up to the 2024 presidential election in the United States, amidst widening calls by Democratic Party representatives, members, voters, and supporters for incumbent president Joe Biden to withdraw from the race in favor of another candidate with "better chances,"[27] [28] Lichtman denounced that demand as a "foolish, destructive escapade," accusing "pundits and the media" of "pushing" the Dems into a losing choice. He added that "all" those calling for Biden's resignation have "zero track record" of predicting election outcomes.[29] By July 21, 2024, Biden announced he was withdrawing from the race, adding that he will serve out the remainder of his term.[30]
Lichtman has received numerous awards at American University during his career. Most notably, he was named Distinguished Professor of History in 2011 and Outstanding Scholar/Teacher for 1992–93, the highest faculty award at that school. Honors include: