2018 Alaska gubernatorial election explained

Election Name:	2018 Alaska gubernatorial election
Country:	Alaska
Type:	presidential
Ongoing:	no
Turnout:	49.8%
Previous Election:	2014 Alaska gubernatorial election
Previous Year:	2014
Next Election:	2022 Alaska gubernatorial election
Next Year:	2022
Election Date:	November 6, 2018
Image1:	Senator Mike Dunleavy.jpg
Nominee1:	Mike Dunleavy
Party1:	Republican Party (United States)
Running Mate1:	Kevin Meyer
Popular Vote1:	145,631
Percentage1:	51.44%
Nominee2:	Mark Begich
Party2:	Democratic Party (United States)
Running Mate2:	Debra Call
Popular Vote2:	125,739
Percentage2:	44.41%
Governor
Before Election:	Bill Walker
Before Party:	Independent (politician)
After Election:	Mike Dunleavy
After Party:	Republican Party (United States)

The 2018 Alaska gubernatorial election took place on November 6, 2018, to elect the governor and lieutenant governor of Alaska. In the primaries for recognized political parties, candidates for governor and lieutenant governor run separately. The winners of each respective primary for governor and lieutenant governor then become a joint ticket in the general election for their political party. Incumbent Independent governor Bill Walker was seeking re-election in what was originally a three-way race between Walker, Republican former Alaska state senator Mike Dunleavy, and Democratic former Alaska U.S. Senator Mark Begich. Despite Walker dropping out on October 19, 2018, and endorsing Begich, Dunleavy won in what was the only gubernatorial gain by a Republican candidate in 2018. As of 2024, this was the last time the Governor's office in Alaska changed partisan control. Walker later unsuccessfully ran for Governor of Alaska in 2022.

Democratic–Libertarian–Independence primary

Candidates from the Alaska Democratic Party, Alaska Libertarian Party and Alaskan Independence Party appear on the same ballot, with the highest-placed candidate from each party receiving that party's nomination. In October 2017 the AKDP sued for the right to allow non-Democrats to compete for and win the Democratic nomination, which was ultimately decided in their favor in April 2018.^[1] This move was widely thought to benefit incumbent Gov. Bill Walker, to foreclose the possibility of a Democratic nominee splitting the vote with Walker against a Republican nominee. However, with the entry of former senator Mark Begich into the race, Walker withdrew from the Democratic primary and forged ahead with a fully independent bid for reelection.^[2]

Governor

Declared

• Mark Begich (Democratic), former U.S. Senator^[3]
• William S. "Billy" Toien (Libertarian), Libertarian candidate for Alaska Governor in 2010^[4]

Polling

with Mark Begich

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Mark Begich	Les Gara	Chris Tuck	Bill Wielechowski	Undecided
Harstad Strategic Research	align=center rowspan=5	March 22 – April 2, 2017	align=center rowspan=5	205	align=center rowspan=5	± 2.2%	align=center	42%	15%	3%	8%	32%
	–	align=center	25%	5%	19%	align=center	51%
	align=center	49%	–	5%	12%	34%
	align=center	43%	15%	–	8%	34%
	align=center	44%	19%	4%	–	32%

Results

Lieutenant governor

Declared

• Debra Call (Democratic), Cook Inlet Tribal Council Board of Directors Representative^[5]

Withdrawn

• Edgar Blatchford (Democratic), former mayor of Seward^[5]

Results

Republican primary

Governor

Nominated

• Mike Dunleavy, educator and former state senator^[6]

Eliminated in primary

• Dorian Colbry
• Thomas A. "Tom" Gordon^[4]
• Gerald Heikes, perennial candidate
• Merica Hlatcu
• Michael Sheldon
• Mead Treadwell, former lieutenant governor^[7]

^[8]

Withdrawn

• Mike Chenault, state representative and former Speaker of the Alaska House of Representatives^[9]
• Scott Hawkins, businessman^{[10] [11]}

Declined

• Bill Walker, incumbent Independent Governor (running for re-election as an Independent)
• Robert Gillam, businessman^{[12] [13]}
• Loren Leman, former lieutenant governor^[14]
• Anna MacKinnon, state senator^[12] (endorsed Mike Dunleavy)
• Joe Miller, former magistrate judge and perennial candidate^[12]
• Sean Parnell, former governor of Alaska^[12] (endorsed Mike Dunleavy)
• Frank Murkowski, former governor of Alaska and U.S. Senator^[15]
• Peter Micciche, state senator (running for re-election to state senate)^[16]
• Dan Sullivan, former mayor of Anchorage and nominee for lieutenant governor in 2014^{[17] [12]} (endorsed Mike Dunleavy)
• Ben Stevens, former president of the Alaska State Senate, son of former president pro tempore of the U.S. Senate, Solicitor of the Interior Department & U.S. Attorney Ted Stevens^[18]

Polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	John Binkley	Mike Dunleavy	Peter Miccici	Joe Miller	Bill Walker	Other	Undecided
Harstad Strategic Research	align=center rowspan=4	March 22 – April 2, 2017	align=center rowspan=4	281	align=center rowspan=4	± 2.2%	7%	6%	4%	align=center	25%	19%	3%^[19]	align=center	36%
	9%	8%	6%	align=center	29%	–	4%^[20]	align=center	46%
	8%	10%	5%	–	align=center	25%	4%	align=center	48%
	–	–	–	align=center	33%	21%	–	align=center	46%

Results

Lieutenant governor

Declared

• Lynn Gattis, former state representative and candidate for the state senate in 2016^[21]
• Edie Grunwald, retired air force colonel and former human resources director for the Alaska National Guard^[22]
• Sharon Jackson, activist and former congressional staffer^[23]
• Kevin Meyer, state senator and former president of the Alaska Senate^[24]
• Gary Stevens, state senator^{[25] [26]}
• Stephen Wright, air force veteran^[27]

Declined

• David Wilson, state senator^{[28] [29] [30]}
• Glen Thompson, Ketchikan Gateway Borough Assemblyman^[31]

Results

Independents

Governor

Withdrew

• Bill Walker (Independent), incumbent governor^{[32] [33] [34] [35]}

Lieutenant governor

Withdrew

• Byron Mallott (Democratic), incumbent lieutenant governor until October 16^{[36] [37]}
• Valerie Davidson (Independent), incumbent lieutenant governor since October 16^[38]

General election

Campaign

Independent candidate and incumbent governor Bill Walker announced on October 19 that he was suspending his campaign and endorsing Mark Begich, three days after Walker's running mate and incumbent lieutenant governor Byron Mallott resigned from office (and amid low polling numbers just three weeks before election day).^{[39] [40]} However, Walker and Mallott still remained on the ballot as the deadline to withdraw was on September 4.^[41]

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
The Cook Political Report^[42]		October 26, 2018
The Washington Post^[43]		November 5, 2018
FiveThirtyEight^[44]		November 5, 2018
Rothenberg Political Report^[45]		November 1, 2018
Sabato's Crystal Ball^[46]		November 5, 2018
RealClearPolitics^[47]		November 4, 2018
Daily Kos^[48]		November 5, 2018
Fox News^[49]		November 5, 2018
Politico^[50]		November 5, 2018
Governing^[51]		November 5, 2018

Polling

with Bill Walker (campaign suspended), Mike Dunleavy, and Mark Begich

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Bill Walker (I)	Mike Dunleavy (R)	Mark Begich (D)	Billy Toien (L)	Other	Undecided
Alaska Survey Research	October 26–29, 2018	500	± 4.4%	8%	align=center	43%	42%	3%	–	4%
Alaska Survey Research	October 19–22, 2018	500	± 4.4%	5%	align=center	48%	44%	–	–	3%
Alaska Survey Research	October 12–14, 2018	500	± 4.4%	27%	align=center	43%	26%	–	–	4%
Public Policy Polling (D)	October 11–12, 2018	645	–	24%	align=center	43%	23%	–	–	9%
Alaska Survey Research	October 1–6, 2018	500	± 4.4%	27%	align=center	47%	23%	–	–	4%
Alaska Survey Research	September 21–25, 2018	500	± 4.4%	23%	align=center	44%	29%	–	–	4%
Harstad Strategic Research	August 13–16, 2018	602	± 4.0%	26%	align=center	36%	24%	–	2%	12%
Patinkin Research Strategies (I-Walker)	June 22–28, 2018	800	± 3.4%	28%	align=center	36%	22%	–	–	15%
Harstad Strategic Research (D)	June 21–26, 2018	602	± 4.0%	28%	align=center	32%	28%	–	–	12%
Alaska Survey Research	June 15–21, 2018	654	± 3.8%	23%	align=center	38%	33%	–	–	6%

with Mark Begich and Mike Dunleavy

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Mark Begich (D)	Mike Dunleavy (R)	Undecided
Alaska Survey Research	October 12–14, 2018	500	± 4.4%	45%	align=center	52%	4%
Alaska Survey Research	October 1–6, 2018	500	± 4.4%	41%	align=center	55%	5%
Alaska Survey Research	September 21–25, 2018	500	± 4.4%	47%	align=center	50%	3%
Harstad Strategic Research	August 13–16, 2018	602	± 4.0%	align=center	46%	44%	–
Harstad Strategic Research (D)	June 21–26, 2018	602	± 4.0%	align=center	50%	41%	9%
Alaska Survey Research	March 25–29, 2018	761	± 3.6%	align=center	53%	42%	5%

with Bill Walker and Mike Dunleavy

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Bill Walker (I)	Mike Dunleavy (R)	Undecided
Alaska Survey Research	October 12–14, 2018	500	± 4.4%	45%	align=center	52%	2%
Alaska Survey Research	October 1–6, 2018	500	± 4.4%	43%	align=center	53%	4%
Alaska Survey Research	September 21–25, 2018	500	± 4.4%	41%	align=center	54%	5%
Harstad Strategic Research	August 13–16, 2018	602	± 4.0%	align=center	47%	43%	–
Harstad Strategic Research (D)	June 21–26, 2018	602	± 4.0%	align=center	49%	40%	11%
Alaska Survey Research	March 25–29, 2018	761	± 3.6%	align=center	51%	44%	5%
Dittman Research (R-Dunleavy for Alaska)	February 26 – March 4, 2018	800	± 3.4%	41%	align=center	47%	12%
Patinkin Research Strategies (I-Walker)	February 20–22, 2018	600	± 4.0%	align=center	36%	33%	31%

with Bill Walker and Mark Begich

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Bill Walker (I)	Mark Begich (D)	Undecided
Alaska Survey Research	October 12–14, 2018	500	± 4.4%	align=center	43%	42%	16%
Alaska Survey Research	October 1–6, 2018	500	± 4.4%	align=center	42%	41%	18%
Alaska Survey Research	September 21–25, 2018	500	± 4.4%	40%	align=center	46%	15%

Results

Boroughs and census areas that flipped from Independent to Republican

• Denali Borough (largest city: Healy)
• Fairbanks North Star (largest city: Fairbanks)
• Petersburg
• Valdez–Cordova Census Area (largest city: Valdez)

Boroughs and census areas that flipped from Independent to Democratic

• Aleutians West Census Area (largest city: Unalaska)
• Anchorage
• Bethel Census Area (largest city: Bethel)
• Kusilvak Census Area (largest city: Hooper Bay)
• Nome Census Area (largest city: Nome)
• Dilingham Census Area (largest city: Dilingham)
• Kodiak Island (largest city: Kodiak Island)
• Lake & Peninsula Borough (largest city: Newhalen)
• North Slope Borough (largest city: Utqiaġvik)
• Northwest Arctic Borough (largest city: Kotzebue)
• Prince of Wales–Hyder Census Area (largest city: Craig)
• Yukon–Koyukuk Census Area (largest city: Fort Yukon)
• Juneau
• Sitka
• Skagway
• Hoonah–Angoon Census Area (largest town: Hoonah)
• Haines Borough (largest census-designated place: Haines)
• Yakutat

Boroughs and census areas that flipped from Republican to Democratic

• Aleutians East Borough (largest city: Akutan)
• Bristol Bay Borough (largest city: Naknek)

External links

• Candidates at Vote Smart
• Candidates at Ballotpedia

Official gubernatorial campaign websites

• Mark Begich (D) for Governor
• Mike Dunleavy (R) for Governor

Official lieutenant gubernatorial campaign websites

• Kevin Meyer (R) for Lieutenant Governor

Alaska Division of Elections

• Unofficial Election Results - Nov. 2018

Notes and References

1. Web site: Independents can run in party primaries, Alaska Supreme Court says, opening door for Gov. Walker. Nathaniel. Hertz. Anchorage Daily News. April 4, 2018.
2. Web site: Former Sen. Begich to challenge Walker for Alaska governor. Becky. Bohrer. June 2, 2018. Associated Press.
3. Web site: Fear of a Begich bid for governor looms large over Alaska GOP convention. Alaska Dispatch News. Herz. Nathaniel. April 30, 2016. July 19, 2016.
4. Web site: 2018 Primary Candidate List. Alaska Division Of Elections. June 2, 2018.
5. Web site: Blatchford drops out of race for lieutenant governor. KTUU News. Mauer. Richard. June 8, 2018. June 9, 2018.
6. News: Dunleavy jumps back in governors race. 2017-12-21. Must Read Alaska. 2017-12-21. en-US.
7. Web site: Mead Treadwell confirms gubernatorial run. 19 February 2023.
8. Web site: Alaska Republican Party . State of Alaska Official Ballot . www.elections.alaska.gov/ . Alaska Division of Elections . August 21, 2018.
9. News: Alaska lieutenant governor candidate says she is running with Begich in Democratic primary. 2018-06-01. Anchorage Daily News. 2018-06-01. en-US.
10. News: Breaking: Hawkins files for governor; focus will be on economy, dividends, crime - Must Read Alaska. 2017-09-21. Must Read Alaska. 2017-09-25. en-US.
11. Web site: Republican Scott Hawkins withdraws from Alaska governor's race, citing entry of Treadwell. Anchorage Daily News. Alex. DeMarban. July 2, 2018. August 10, 2018.
12. Web site: Game Theory: The One Question That Could Decide Who Alaska's Next Governor Will Be. The Midnight Sun. Reynolds. Casey. February 1, 2017. February 2, 2017.
13. Web site: As some drop hints about running for Alaska governor in 2018, Walker remains a wild card. Herz, Nathaniel. May 28, 2017. May 29, 2017. Alaska Dispatch News.
14. Web site: Friday in the Sun!!! (February 17). The Midnight Sun. Reynolds. Casey. February 17, 2017. February 24, 2017.
15. Web site: Frank Murkowski seriously considered running for Alaska governor again. Anchorage Daily News. Herz. Nathaniel. June 11, 2018. May 10, 2021.
16. Web site: Letter of Intent Form. aws.state.ak.us. 2017-09-12.
17. Web site: Former Anchorage Mayor Dan Sullivan withdraws from U.S. Senate race. Fairbanks Daily News-Miner. Buxton. Matt. June 16, 2016. July 19, 2016.
18. Web site: ADN reports Ben Stevens contemplating run for Governor. Alaska Dispatch News & KINY Radio. 2017-08-20. 2022-11-13.
19. Mike Chennault 3%
20. Mike Chennault 4%
21. News: Lynn Gattis files for lieutenant governor - Must Read Alaska. 2017-08-04. Must Read Alaska. 2017-09-05. en-US.
22. Web site: Grunwald, mother of murdered Palmer teen, joins race for Lt. Governor . . Hickman . Matt . 21 September 2017 . December 9, 2017.
23. Web site: GOP Sharon Jackson files for lieutenant governor. Must Read Alaska. April 12, 2018. April 15, 2018. Suzanne. Downing.
24. Web site: State Senator Kevin Meyer files to be candidate for Lt. Governor, no running mate in mind . . Maguire . Sean . September 7, 2017 . September 8, 2017.
25. Web site: State Sen. Gary Stevens files to run for lieutenant governor . . Desroches . Kayla . August 1, 2017 . September 8, 2017.
26. Web site: Kodiak senator is first to seek lieutenant governor's office . . Brooks . James . August 2, 2017 . September 8, 2017.
27. Web site: They are running on principle – just ask them. 2018-03-15.
28. Web site: Senator David Wilson files for lieutenant governor race . . Manning . Phillip . July 19, 2017 . September 5, 2017.
29. Web site: Senator David Wilson says he's not running for Lt. Governor, he filed by accident. Alaska Public Media. Manning. Phillip. July 20, 2017. September 5, 2017.
30. Web site: Freshman senator launches bid for lieutenant governor, scraps campaign a day later. KTUU-TV. Baird. Austin. July 20, 2017. September 5, 2017.
31. News: Heads and Tails: Campaigns, fundraisers, gaffes, and galas - Must Read Alaska . 2017-08-08 . Must Read Alaska . 2017-09-05 . en-US.
32. Web site: Gov. Walker to enter Democratic primary in re-election bid. Associated Press. May 6, 2018. May 22, 2018. https://web.archive.org/web/20180508122937/https://www.ktoo.org/2018/05/06/gov-walker-to-enter-democratic-primary-in-re-election-bid/. May 8, 2018. dead.
33. Web site: Yes, independents can run in Democratic primary, says Alaska Supreme Court. Andrew Kitchenman, Alaska Public Media & KTOO -. Juneau. April 5, 2018 . May 22, 2018.
34. News: Klint. Chris. Walker won't run in Democratic primary. KTVA. June 1, 2018. June 2, 2018.
35. Web site: Zak . Annie . Gov. Bill Walker drops out of campaign for Alaska governor . Anchorage Daily News . 20 October 2018. 2018-10-19 .
36. News: Lieutenant Governor Byron Mallott files letter of intent for re-election. Maguire. Sean. 2017-09-05. en.
37. Web site: Zak . Annie . Gov. Bill Walker drops out of campaign for Alaska governor . Anchorage Daily News . 19 October 2018. 2018-10-19 .
38. News: Alaska Gov. Bill Walker suspends re-election bid. Caroline . Kelly. CNN. 2018-11-08.
39. Web site: Gov. Bill Walker drops out of campaign for Alaska governor. Tegan. Hanlon. October 19, 2018. Anchorage Daily News.
40. News: Bill Walker, Governor of Alaska, Suspends Campaign Amid Sinking Polls. Kirk. Johnson. The New York Times. October 19, 2018. October 19, 2018.
41. News: Zak. Annie. Hanlon. Tegan. Under pressure to withdraw, Begich reaffirms plan to stay in Alaska governor's race. Anchorage Daily News. September 4, 2018. October 21, 2018.
42. Web site: 2018 Governor Race Ratings for October 26, 2018. The Cook Political Report. en. 2021-04-10.
43. News: The Washington Post's gubernatorial race ratings. The Washington Post. October 16, 2018.
44. Web site: 2018 Governor Forecast FiveThirtyEight. FiveThirtyEight. October 17, 2018 . en. October 17, 2018.
45. Web site: 2018 Gubernatorial Ratings Inside Elections. insideelections.com. en. 2017-11-15.
46. Web site: Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball » 2018 Governor. www.centerforpolitics.org. en-US. 2017-11-15.
47. Web site: 2018 Governor Races. RealClearPolitics. October 9, 2018.
48. Web site: 2018 Governor Race Ratings. Daily Kos. June 5, 2018.
49. Web site: 2018 Midterm Power Ranking. Fox News.
50. Web site: Politico Race Ratings. Politico.
51. Web site: 2018 Governor Elections: As November Nears, More Governors' Races Become Tossups . Governing . en . 2018-07-18 . October 21, 2018 . https://web.archive.org/web/20181021005343/http://www.governing.com/topics/politics/gov-governors-races-july-ratings.html . dead.