Adam Scaife Explained

Adam A. Scaife is a British physicist and head of long range prediction at the Met Office.[1] He is also a professor at Exeter University.[2] Scaife carries out research into long range weather forecasting and computer modelling of the climate and has published over 250 peer reviewed studies[3] on atmospheric dynamics, computer modelling and climate as well as popular science [4] and academic books[5] on meteorology.

Career

Scaife studied Natural Sciences (Physics) at Cambridge University (1988-1991), Environmental Science at Surrey University (1991-1992) and was awarded a PhD in Meteorology from Reading University (1999, academic advisor Prof Ian N James). He joined the Met Office in 1992 where he worked on climate dynamics and the development of improved computer models of the climate.[6] [7] [8] [9] He also joined Exeter University as Professor in Applied Maths in 2017.

Many of his studies show how predictable factors [10] [11] [12] [13] affect weather from months to decades ahead. Since 2003 he has led teams of scientists in the Met Office Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research, working on climate modeling and long range weather prediction. He now leads research and production of monthly, seasonal and decadal predictions at the Met Office.[14] [15] Scaife and his team have made recent advances in long range weather forecasting[16] and have uncovered the paradox that current climate models are better at predicting the real world than they are at predicting themselves.[17] Scaife's recent research demonstrates a link between year to year climate predictions, subtle changes in the rotation rate of the Earth and hence the length of day.

Scaife was co-chair of the World Meteorological Organisation's Working Group on Seasonal to Interannual Prediction[18] and served as a member of the scientific steering group of the World Climate Research Programme's core project on the stratosphere and its role in climate.[19] He is a fellow of the Institute of Physics[20] and the Royal Meteorological Society[21] and co-led the World Meteorological Organisation's grand challenge on Near Term Climate Prediction.[22] Scaife is also member of the Royal Meteorological Society climate communications group,[23] [24] regularly comments on extreme climate events,[25] [26] [27] [28] [29] and is often involved in communicating climate science to the public.[30] [31] [32] [33] [34] [35] [36]

Awards

Notes and References

  1. Web site: Prof. Adam Scaife . Met Office . 2014-04-04 . 2015-10-16.
  2. Web site: Prof Adam Scaife - CEMPS - - Mathematics, University of Exeter . Emps.exeter.ac.uk . 2015-10-16.
  3. Web site: Google Scholar - Adam Scaife.
  4. Web site: 30s Meteorology.
  5. Web site: Dynamics and Predictability of Large-Scale, High-Impact Weather and Climate Events.
  6. Impact of a Spectral Gravity Wave Parameterization on the Stratosphere in the Met Office Unified Model . 59 . 9 . Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences . 1473–1489 . 2002 . Scaife . Adam A. . Butchart . Neal . Warner . Christopher . Swinbank . Richard.
  7. Realistic Simulations of the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation in a simulation of the global climate . 10.1029/2000GL011625 . 27 . 21 . Geophysical Research Letters . 3481–3484 . 2000 . Scaife . Adam A. . Butchart . Neal . Warner . Christopher . Stainforth . David . Norton . Warwick . Austin . John .
  8. Removal of chlorofluorocarbons by increased mass exchange between the stratosphere and troposphere in a changing climate . 10.1038/35071047 . 410 . Nature . 799–802 . 2000 . Butchart . Neal . Scaife . Adam.
  9. Improved Atlantic winter blocking in a climate model . 10.1029/2011GL049573 . 38 . Geophysical Research Letters . L23703 . 2011 . Scaife . Adam A. . Copsey . Dan . Gordon . Chris . Harris . Chris . Hinton . Tim . Keeley . Sarah . O'Neill . Alan . Roberts . Malcolm . Williams . Keith. free .
  10. Web site: Nature Geoscience . Angular Momentum, Length of Day and Climate Predictions . Nature. 2023-09-29.
  11. Web site: Science Media Centre . El Nino . Science Media Centre . 2015-12-20.
  12. A mechanism for lagged North Atlantic climate response to solar variability . 10.1002/grl.50099 . 40 . 2 . Geophysical Research Letters . 434–439. 2013GeoRL..40..434S . 2013 . Scaife . Adam A. . Ineson . Sarah . Knight . Jeff R. . Gray . Lesley . Kodera . Kunihiko . Smith . Doug M. . free .
  13. Predictability of the quasi-biennial oscillation and its northern winter teleconnection on seasonal to decadal timescales . 10.1002/2013GL059160 . 41 . 5 . Geophysical Research Letters . 1752–1758. 2014GeoRL..41.1752S . 2014 . 10871/19674 . Scaife . Adam A. . Athanassiadou . Maria . Andrews . Martin . Arribas . Alberto . Baldwin . Mark . Dunstone . Nick . Knight . Jeff . MacLachlan . Craig . Manzini . Elisa . Müller . Wolfgang A. . Pohlmann . Holger . Smith . Doug . Stockdale . Tim . Williams . Andrew . free .
  14. Web site: Monthly to Decadal Prediction . Met Office . 2020-07-01.
  15. Seasonal forecasting of tropical storms using the Met Office GloSea5 seasonal forecast system . 10.1002/qj.2516 . 141 . 691. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society . 2206–2219. 2015QJRMS.141.2206C. Camp. J.. Roberts. M.. MacLachlan. C.. Wallace. E.. Hermanson. L.. Brookshaw. A.. Arribas. A.. Scaife. A. A.. 2015 . free.
  16. Skillful long-range prediction of European and North American winters . 10.1002/2014GL059637 . 41 . 7 . Geophysical Research Letters . 2514–2519. 2014GeoRL..41.2514S . 2014 . 10871/34601 . Scaife . A. A. . Arribas . A. . Blockley . E. . Brookshaw . A. . Clark . R. T. . Dunstone . N. . Eade . R. . Fereday . D. . Folland . C. K. . Gordon . M. . Hermanson . L. . Knight . J. R. . Lea . D. J. . MacLachlan . C. . Maidens . A. . Martin . M. . Peterson . A. K. . Smith . D. . Vellinga . M. . Wallace . E. . Waters . J. . Williams . A. . free .
  17. A Signal to Noise Paradox in Climate Science . 10.1038/s41612-018-0038-4 . 1 . npj Climate and Atmospheric Science. 2018 . Scaife . Adam A. . Smith . Doug . free .
  18. Web site: About WGSIP. Wcrp-climate.org. 2015-10-16.
  19. Web site: Home :: SPARC. SPARC. 6 April 2010. Sparc-climate.org. 2015-10-16.
  20. Web site: Institute of Physics. IOP.org. 2019-06-28.
  21. Web site: Royal Meteorological Society. Rmets.org. 2015-10-16. https://web.archive.org/web/20190602164750/https://www.rmets.org/. 2 June 2019. dead.
  22. Web site: Near-term Climate Prediction. Isabel. Hall. www.wcrp-climate.org.
  23. Web site: El Nino-Southern Oscillation. Rmets.org . 2019-07-07.
  24. Web site: Solar Variability . Rmets.org . 2019-07-07.
  25. Web site: 2016 Set to be Hottest Year on Record . Telegraph Newspaper . 2015-10-16.
  26. Web site: El Niño is back in town . Geographical . 2015-10-16.
  27. Web site: Nicola Davis . Why has it rained so much in the UK – and is it climate change? | Environment . The Guardian . 2014-02-11 . 2015-10-16.
  28. Web site: December 2015 record weather in the UK? . Met office . 2015-12-31 . 2018-01-11.
  29. News: Warmest Decade. BBC News . 6 February 2019. McGrath. Matt.
  30. News: Climate Science Myths . Guardian Newspaper . 2015-12-20. The Guardian . 2015-05-03 . Devlin . Hannah .
  31. Web site: Horizon: Season 50, Episode 14 : What's Wrong with Our Weather?. IMDb.com . 2015-10-16.
  32. News: Briggs . Helen . El Nino could 'disrupt food markets' - BBC News . Bbc.co.uk . 2015-05-21. 2015-10-16. BBC News .
  33. Web site: Horizon: Season 48, Episode 13 : Global Weirding (27 March 2012). IMDb.com. 2015-10-16.
  34. Web site: Slowdown in Global Warming . Met Office . 2017-09-19 . 2018-01-11.
  35. Web site: El Nino explainer . Royal Meteorological Society . 2018-06-08 . 2019-11-07.
  36. Web site: Predictability Beyond the Weather Forecast . Manchester Literary and Scientific Society . 2018-12-11 . 2020-07-01.
  37. Web site: Edward Appleton Medal 2020.
  38. Web site: The Buchan Prize 2019.
  39. Web site: The Copernicus Medal.
  40. Web site: Met Office Blog.
  41. Web site: Scaife Receives 2016 Atmospheric Sciences Ascent Award - Honors Program.
  42. Web site: Adrian Gill Prize. Rmets.org.
  43. Web site: LG Groves Memorial Prize.
  44. Web site: Lloyd's Science of Risk : 2011 Conference and Winners . Lloyds.com .

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